Sorry, not impressed.

With the BAT. The number that really caught my attention in today's Bulletin about the Bend transit's millionth rider (actually boardings) is that the little old system of Dial a Ride that existed before Sept. 2006, was carrying 104k riders a year. So, with all the infrastructure and false starts and increased routes and new buses and all the rest, they only managed to triple those numbers.

Also, unless I'm missing something, the ridership hasn't really increased since the first year. 346k boardings in the first fiscal year, times three years, is the million boardings we're about to reach. That seems pretty stagnant to me.

Like I said, not impressed.

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There's an interesting map all over the webazine world which shows potential future changes to the climate of America. (Everything turns orange, as in hot, and red as in scorching.) It would be even more interesting if every map I've seen didn't leave off the entire west coat of the continental U.S.A. Because, you know, Oregon, Wash. and California really aren't part of the country. I wonder how Alaska and Hawaii feel?

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So a staff person has left the office of a politician. I'm impressed. By the fact that she managed to get a section Headline from the Bulletin out of a simple job change. Now that's lobbying.

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At least one other person has caught the significance of the 4th quarter for retail stores.
KeyPoint Partners Retail has this very succinct statement:

“Since September 2008 comp store sales at many retail firms indicate dramatic year-over-year declines. Consequently, we are about to complete the worst 12-month retail cycle since the Great Depression.”

It was September 2008 when the economy went into freefall. You remember: banking failures, stock market crash, financing woes - all the things that can force commercial development to a screeching halt. Oh, and a brutal acceleration in retail sales declines."

So here's what to watch out for. If there is ANY further decline, even if it's just a fraction of the decline from the previous year, it's a compounded decline. Which would put us into our third year of compounded declines. A 5% drop may sound like a dramatic improvement from a 20% drop, but it's in addition to the 20% drop; a 25% drop. And 2007 wasn't exactly a positive year.

I'm sure, though -- positive, in fact -- that the media will put in a real positive spin on this. Add that spin to the likely unpredictable and seasonal month to month statistics, and you will have 'everything is turning up roses' type headlines.

My hope is that I'll equal last year's fourth quarter, this year. Then I might buy into the idea we've hit bottom.

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