First, that Les Schwab has laid off workers, though they won't tell us how many. I've never heard of them doing that before. If ever there was a solid business based in Bend, it would be LS.
Secondly, Airport boardings in Redmond have dipped, for the first time since after 9/11.
Third, an article about commercial Real Estate vacancies in Bend. They inform us that Bend office vacancy is up by 5.9%, to a total of 13.5%. Sounds very precise, doesn't it? How do they reach this number?; by a local commercial real estate agent doing a phone survey.
A phone survey? By a real estate agent?
Yeah, that sounds like something to hang your hat on. I'm not doubting the honesty, just the method. Maybe it's accurate, I don't know. But it seems pretty amorphous.
And if I may add, as I always do, we are in the middle of our busiest season, with Christmas to finish off the last quarter. And then, in Bend at least, another 6 months of slow business. I'd like to see the lay of the land next spring....
This has all just started.
At least there is an acknowledgment of tough retail times. Bill Smith down at Old Mill is saying retail tenant sales are "off about 5 percent to 25 percent..." I think I've mentioned before, whenever someone gives me a range, I always assume the worser end of the two numbers.
Also interesting to me is that they are mentioning the tough lending situation for small business. Meanwhile, lending to build commercial space (malls, offices and hotels) are off even worse.
Nationwide, as I've mentioned before, lending is down 96% on the 75% of the lending done by a process known as CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities.) Announced building is down more than 80% for the first half of 2009 from the first half of 2010.
And kudos's to them for mentioning that there was a commercial bubble that followed the housing bubble:
"There was a lot of speculative building fueled by cheap money," he (Darren Powderly, of Compass Commercial) said. "Now a lot of those buildings are coming online and tenants aren't there. That's where we're going to be for a while."
"In some cases, commercial real estate, which boomed later than the housing market, will follow the residential real estate on the way down...."
By that way, no one has mentioned the fact that Hotel building is having huge problems as well. I'll be very, very interested to see if that hotel on Franklin that has been announced, ever breaks ground.
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Finally, here's a little something from the website "The Big Picture" to gnaw on. It's a partial list of retail and restaurants who have folded their tents recently.
Ann Taylor closing 117 stores nationwide
Bombay Company: to close all 384 U.S.-based Bombay Company stores. Cache, a women’s retailer is closing 20 to 23 stores this year
CompUSA (CLOSED).
Disney Store owner has the right to close 98 stores.
Dillard's Inc. will close another six stores this year.
Eddie Bauer to close more stores after closing 27 stores in the first quarter
Ethan Allen Interiors: plans to close 12 of 300 stores to cut costs.
Foot Locker to close 140 stores
Gap Inc. closing 85 stores
Home Depot store closings 15 of them amid a slumping US economy and housing market. The move will affect 1,300 employees. It is the first time the world's largest home improvement store chain has ever closed a flagship store.
J. C. Penney, Lowe's and Office Depot are all scaling back
Lane Bryant, Fashion Bug, Catherines closing 150 stores nationwide
Levitz - the furniture retailer, announced it was going out of business and closing all 76 of its stores in December. The retailer dates back to 1910.
Macy's - 9 stores closedMovie Gallery – video rental company plans to close 400 of 3,500 Movie Gallery and Hollywood Video stores in addition to the 520 locations the video rental chain closed last fall as part of bankruptcy.
Pacific Sunwear - 153 Demo stores closing
Pep Boys - 33 stores of auto parts supplier closing
Sprint Nextel - 125 retail locations to close with 4,000 employees following 5,000 layoffs last year
Talbots, J. Jill closing stores. Talbots will close all 78 of its kids and men's stores plus another 22 underperforming stores. The 22 stores will be a mix of Talbots women's and J. Jill
Wickes Furniture is going out of business and closing all of its stores. The 37-year-old retailer that targets middle-income customers, filed for bankruptcy protection last month.
Wilsons the Leather Experts – closing 158 stores
Zales, Piercing Pagoda plans to close 82 stores by July 31 followed by closing another 23 underperforming stores.
I know Linens & Things just went belly up, and Steve & Barrys recently filed for bankruptcy protection and sale.
To which, I'd like to add some others, who are at least closing some stores: I can't vouch for this list, so take it with a grain of salt.
Starbucks: 616 stores
Bennegan's
Mervyn's
Boscov
Sharper Image
Shoe Pavilion
Pier One
Cold Stone Creamery
Dawahares
Children's Place
Charming Shoppes
Freidman
Kirkland Home Decor
Liz Claiborne
Goody's Clothing...
5 comments:
Keep in mind that the one thing that bubbles due is to create infrastructure that is then used to support growth after the bubbles collapse. Now that does not help those that built that infrastructure during the bubble, but it does provide for available, relatively low cost facilities to drive growth when the recovery starts.
Out of all of the store closing the only one that would be unexpected is the auto parts store pep boys. Auto parts usually does well during a down turn.
The others are all in businesses that would be expected to feel the down turn.
Ah, the long view.
My lease is up next year. I have to figure out how to time this....
Add the Bungalow, Cascade Village mall, for the belly-up list.
Some of it is silly, such as talking about 'mob hits'. But I'm assuming that kind of talk is just for effect and that the other bloggers don't really believe it
Well, at least someone gets it....
Add Steak and Ale to the closure list
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