The 100 year old virgin.

Toy Story 3.

What a great movie, especially the second half. I teared up at the end, and I always know when I tear up, my wife is nearly sobbing.

Reminds me of when I went on a first date with a girl to see E.T. I was crying at the end, and she thought that was GREAT! "Let's go to more movies!"

Sadly, that's all she really wanted to do with me, heh.

**********

Just had an old guy in the store asking for C.S. Lewis. I keep a new hardcover copy of Screwtape Letters, which he grabbed and brought up to the counter. Then, I'm not kidding, he nearly threw the book at me and said, "This was written by the devil!"

"Um....no, it was written by C.S. Lewis...."

My friend Aaron, who is a pretty strong Christian, was in the store, and thought that was the funniest thing he'd heard.

**********

So Steve Earle was staring in my window, yesterday.. I mean, standing there stock still staring....gave me a weird bit of a frisson.

He kept walking, though.

I told the next 8 people that -- and not one of them knew who the hell Steve Earle was....

**********

The latest news stories about downtown Bend "filling up" sound pretty good, right?

Except that downtown Bend never really emptied out. There has been pretty steady infill since I started keeping track a couple of years ago.

I would have been interested to know the rate of turnover before the boom, and during the boom as well, but....well....that's a good reason to keep a list.

For the next time....

**********

Saw the 1st Twilight last night at home. No longer a Twilight virgin -- no, that's not right. With Twilight, you stay a virgin.

A little creepy, the 100 year old guy lusting after a 16 year old. I found 16 year olds vapid when I was 21, already. (To all my 16 year old customers --- just kidding.)

So you can be young and pretty and rich and super fast and super strong forever -- and all you have to do is drink a little animal blood once in a while.

Oh....and stay in high school for all eternity.

GET AWAY FROM ME YOU CREEPY BLOODSUCKER!

"...sort of like living in Pleasantville except without the jobs..."

The little ball of energy known as Julie, Julie has left town. Hell, for the amount of activity she showed, she could have called herself Julie, Julie, Julie...or even Julie, Julie, Julie, Julie.

I met her once, and I think she immediately decided I wasn't scintillating enough.
Her type of personality is a bit of a mystery to me, but I have to admit I stood back in awe and trepidation. Heh.

Her husband, who I will always know as "Tim" for his rather insightful and sometimes biting commentary on the bubble blogs, left town a little earlier for a good job.

I probably ought to leave this observation for Black Dog, who first caught the significance of her parting comment about Bend (I sort of passed over it): "...sort of like living in Pleasantville except without the jobs." Or as Mugmkr mentioned, "It's so much more wholesome than the old standby, "Bend: Poverty with a view", isn't it?"

Yes, but they pretty much say the same thing, don't they?

No slam on Tim and Julie, Julie, because they are much smarter and more energetic than me, but was the fact that Bend is "Pleasantville except without the jobs" something they didn't know before they moved here? Are we so intent on getting people to move here that we aren't willing to warn them of the dangers?

Or is it, "take a number and take your chances?"

Sure! Come to Bend, buy a house, start a business, start looking for a job! We'll be glad to take your money and energy, who knows you might be a wild success!

I feel like Bend should come with one of the medication warnings you hear on Television.

All medicines may cause side effects, but many people have no, or minor, side effects. Check with your doctor if any of these most COMMON side effects persist or become bothersome when using this drug:

Diarrhea; dizziness; flushing; headache; heartburn; stuffy nose; upset stomach.

Seek medical attention right away if any of these SEVERE side effects occur when using Viagra:

Severe allergic reactions (rash; hives; itching; difficulty breathing; tightness in the chest; swelling of the mouth, face, lips, or tongue); chest pain; fainting; fast or irregular heartbeat; memory loss; numbness of an arm or leg; one-sided weakness; painful or prolonged erection; ringing in the ears; seizure; severe or persistent dizziness; severe or persistent vision changes; sudden decrease or loss of hearing; sudden decrease or loss of vision in one or both eyes...

Downtown Openings and Closings.

I've added the newly announced non-profit restaurant, Common Table, as well as a new coffee place on Brooks. Admittedly, Brooks St. (or the part we used to call the Mirror Pond alley) is a bit of a blind spot for me.

I'm holding off adding Mad Happy Lounge, because it sounds like it's part of or inside an existing business -- can anyone tell me for sure?

NOTE: I went ahead and added Mad Happy Lounge, and dropped Bend Old Bend Distillery, even though I'm not sure it's much more than a change of names. Still, it represents change.

So....a non-profit restaurant. My main reaction is, Wow. Sounds way too complicated for me. One thing I've tried to do as an older business is to simplify things. This sounds --- really conflicting and complicated and contradicting. But it's for a good cause, right?

ANOTHER NOTE: Somehow I missed adding Volt, so I've retroactively included it on June 1, 2010. And I'll remind everyone that I do 'retail' and restaurants but not 'services.'

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota St., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota St., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota St. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Av. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota St., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Av., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minn. Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Lab Rats for the Trickle Down Theory.

I think Bend is becoming the lab rat of the trickle down theory.

There's always been a bit of disconnect between what I see in the West Hills of Bend, and what I see in my store. The kinds of customers I see and how much they are willing to spend versus the kinds of customers my neighbor stores in downtown Bend are obviously trying to attract.

I believe that the vast majority of my customers are solidly middle class, or young enough that they haven't really settled into an income range. If any of them are wealthy, they manage to hide it well. And if the people buying games and books from me are wealthy, it doesn't seem to matter because they seem to buy moderate amounts at any rate.

I had an obviously wealthy guy in the store on Friday, who had a son in the bike race, who was talking about buying a second home in Bend. He left without buying anything. On the other hand, he mentioned he was staying at the Oxford, and obviously he was eating while he was here and so on. So some of that money may trickle down, right?

Or when Linda and I went to visit Pronghorn and weren't allowed in by a young guy with a clipboard. That young guy was getting a moderate wage, no doubt.

But I'm kind of seeing downtown and parts of the West Hills as islands of wealth, surrounded by sagebrush and juniper. Oasis's amongst the hardscrabble regular folk.

What isn't clear is how these can co-exist, and maintain any cohesion. There's a middle connecting part missing; or shrinking, and the gulf seems to be getting wider. We may get away with it from a influx of middle class retires, but these folk aren't known for their spending. We may get away with it from the health, government, and school type incomes. Though these are shrinking.

Our hope, I suppose, is that we'll get viable high tech jobs. But we're in for the fight of our lives to get those people to move here, when absolutely every other municipality is wanting the same people. Obviously it's harder with the higher cost of living, the lower wages, the lack of flights to big cities, the lack of a (real) four year college, the lack of an interstate. The overall isolation and skewed demographics.

I wish we could have saved a more diverse mix of stores downtown; instead of mostly jewelry, art galleries, high end clothing, and fine dining. I wish we could have saved a bit of the funk.
One of the cool things that happened during the revival of downtown in the late 80's and early 90's was what a strange brew it was. That has been filtered out, little by little.

Well, maybe I'm being provincial by using my own store as a gauge, but I've mentioned before, I don't see that 'rich' people spend any more than average middle class people. In fact, to me it seems like they actually spend less. I have to take it on faith they they are really splurging in the art galleries and jewelry stores and restaurants.

In the Garden, Pt. 2.

Why do I think of swimming,
when I'm in my garden?
And toy soldiers?
And The Lord of the Rings?

I think of my mother,
which is right, and my sister
and all that is gone.

I think of my childhood,
trailing fingers in the dirt,
of lying on my back,
staring at the clouds.

Wishing my wife would join me,
and here she is, with a cheerful,
"Watcha doin'?"

What more could I want?
Except all were here to enjoy it
with me,
my younger self,
my gardening mother,
my sister so full of life,
and wishing it came earlier,
and glad it came at all.

"In the Garden."

In the Garden.

Controversy awaits,
in my darkened room,
darkened mood, for
saying what I think.

In the garden, the buzzing
bees,
the dove's owl-like coo,
peaceful and quiet.

Enter the world....

Or leave the world,
to those who know better.

Decades now, in the world,
watching them come and go,
those who know better.

The flowers are near bloom,
an explosion awaits,
of smell and color.

In the darkened room,
my opinions await, and yet,
I'm drawn to state,
what I "Think" is truth.

But the sunlight doesn't care
and the garden awaits unknowing.

The last funky space.

We left the Pegasus Books "Sale" table out overnight. There was enough money for 3 books on the table in the morning, and someone brought in .50 later in the day.

Hmmmm. Maybe I should leave it out by mistake every night!

**********

Not to pick on CACB, but since no one else has mentioned it: the stock dropped to a new low of .46 Friday...so even a stock doubling wouldn't get them to 1.00.

**********

In talking about Staccato closing, John Stearns of the Bulletin makes a pretty good case for what I call "The Beautiful Corpse" scenario.

Downtown has been "failing upward" for years now, (get it, "failing upward, not falling upward"): As rents increased only wealthier stores could move in, who would then fix up the spaces, but who would then have to pay for the improvements and startup costs and high rent at the same time.

Ultimately, when they fail, the next guy in line gets a much improved space for lower rent.

I'm beginning to think I'm the last unrenovated space in downtown; I can't afford to close and move everything out and completely redo the space. I still have my old-fashioned lights. I did replace the carpet at one point, and I've painted the walls a few times.

But whoever ends up in my space years from now is going to get a "worn out and looking it's years and he lived a full life" space. Only the good die young.

***********

So my former competitor Brad Irwin has gone from selling games, to hosting poker tournaments, to distilling "spirits." Intriguing career arc.

**********

Interesting article "Taking the Leap to Self-Employment." I have trouble agreeing with this statement, however: "At first, the actual business may be secondary because you will need to devote most of your time to marketing."

Not with a storefront, you don't. I realize they are talking about all kinds of self-employment, but this idea of 'marketing above all' is why I think the a second paragraph in the story is true:
"Half of all startups fail with the first five years."

My advice for a storefront is pick "location, location, location" as your marketing, then work your ass off to work your store and fill it with product. You know, the nuts and bolts. Start small enough with low enough overhead that you can grow your business.

Otherwise, my question is -- "Promote WHAT?"

***********

My peonies and poppies and half the other plants in my garden stubbornly refuse to bloom. They've got enormous buds -- fat, healthy looking buds -- but they won't open.

Then again, I brought my shorts and sandals out from the closest yesterday for the first time this year...

**********

For fun last night, I watched my wife Linda watching a author on Book T.V. (yes, that's fun for us, pretty pathetic.) I knew the author was extremely right wing, but he also is the most 'reasonable' sounding guy you ever heard.

I waited for it to dawn on her that the guy was saying exactly the opposite of what she believes.

When she finally realized it, I laughed. "Yeah, he sucked me in once, too."

You can say the most outrageous things, if you say them in a reasonable and measured manner...

********

H. Bruce made his usual yearly comment in the Wandering Eye blog about my usual yearly 'rant' about street closures.

Actually, I realize that I can't change any of this; so I've been pretty good at avoiding these events altogether and putting my employees in the stores on these days. That way, I don't have to be exposed.

What caught me off guard was that it was a Friday, my regularly scheduled day, and that one of my employees is on vacation making more work for the other guys and I didn't feel I could leave.

Of course, this moving into Fridays is a new thing. Cascade Criterion used to be called the 'Twilight' race, because it didn't take place until after store closing. This last Friday's race was completely new last year.

I figure I'll probably have retired by the time they start closing on Thursdays or Mondays....Tuesdays and Wednesdays...

Oh, hell. What do we need stores for? They just get in the way of all the fun...

***********

On being self-sufficient.

You know, I always sort of thought that was the point of owning your own business. You make the decisions, you take the consequences. It's all yours. Ultimately, it comes back to you -- both success and failure.

I'm O.K. with that.

There was a time after the sports card bubble, around 1992, when I was so broke and disgusted I was ready to quit. And I realized that while some people would be sad, and some others would cry crocodile tears, and in a few cases some would actually be happy -- they'd all get over it pretty quick and get on with their lives.

It concentrated the mind, wonderfully. I had to figure a way through it -- I had to make decisions that were in the best interests of me and my family.

There is a tendency, I think, for some of us to think we're somehow providing a public service, and while that can be true, the real reason we are in business is to earn money. Nothing beats the profit motive for motivation. Nothing.

You can't do anyone any good if you can't survive.

I have a couple of corollaries to this notion: Even if you try your best to earn a profit, you often won't. I can almost guarantee you that if you don't set out to earn a profit, you will lose money. And secondly, no one will run a business for very long without earning a profit, no matter how wealthy they are, no matter how much they maintain they "don't need the money."

The work is just too hard and stressful to be treated as a hobby. There is too much risk -- and while you may truly think you "don't need the money" no one likes losing money, which is what will happen.

You want a hobby? Take up painting, or biking, or something.

Opening "Street Closure" Season.

At about 2:00 this afternoon, I will grab the BLACK BOOK, and try to get across the street against the biker flow, and leave the store for the weekend in the hands of the cheerful young fellows who work for me.

I'll mow the lawn, dink around the garden, then settle down with the BLACK BOOK (I always intone that) to do my monthly orders.

I was not going to say anything about street closures this year; because it's a no win situation. "That which you can't change....blah, blah."

So for 3/4ths of the next six weeks or so -- the very meat of summer -- we will have closed streets on the weekend. It appears there is a new event tacked on, as well as the bike race today which was a new event last year. (I could swear they said they weren't going to add new events.)

Oh, well. The majority of the downtown retailers seem to like these events; or at least acquiesce to them.

So be it.

Want a meal with that room?

Gee, my reading of the Source's article on room taxes is that the city staff blew it about 10 years ago, and the hotels have been taking advantage of it ever since.

Surprise #1: The city staff made a mistake.

Surprise #2: The Hotel owners took advantage of it.

Surprise #3: The City is now in dire need of money, and wants their money.

Surprise #4: The Hotel owners are squawking.

Yes, we have no shrimps.

Bourbon Street.

Interesting timing for a Cajun restaurant. There's an article in the USA Today about how the raw material for these kinds of eateries is disappearing. Prices going up.

"Gulf Spill Takes Bite out of Restaurants."

"As the ruptured BP well spews oil into the Gulf of Mexico, seafood restaurants nationwide are rewriting menus to cope with volatile prices and spot shortages for shrimp, oyster and crab. Some menu items, such as Gulf oysters, may disappear entirely. Other restaurants may import seafood to fill in the holes. Prices for harder-to-find foods may increase, and portions may shrink."

**********

We have a couple of bluejays who are hounding our cat night and day. I'm worried that they're getting a little too bold. Our cat is fat, but she can move surprisingly fast. The cat was on the couch the other day, when Linda heard an unholy racket, she went upstairs to find the male bluejay perched on the kitchen island screaming at Panga, who was trying to ignore him.

It's pretty much a constant bawling out, anytime the cat nears the screen door.

**********

I've lost about 6 pounds this month, about 2 pounds a week, by cutting back to 1500 caleries a day. My trick is that I just don't eat much of anything the first half of the day, and then eat almost normal (minus treats) the rest of the day. I know there are all kinds of things wrong with that approach, but it works for me....

I look the same, whether I'm 25 pounds heavier or not -- but it usually gets to a point where I don't like the feel of it. So I'm just going to follow through for the rest of the summer; 18 pounds or so.

**********

As often happens, I'm being disciplined about my diet and my budget at the same time. The cutting back frame of mind just seems to extend into all areas of my life.

Anyway, I'm finding that I'm just not getting as many deals on the liquidations that I thought I would. Turns out, I was ordering stuff that was only discounted 10% or so, and my new standards are deeper than that; turns out, there aren't a whole lot of items offered at my new standards.

**********

Sales haven't really picked up. I mean, slightly. But not the big boost I'm always hoping for in the summer. It's more a matter of how much I'll make -- we're in really good shape. Bills paid, credit cards zeroed out.

Still....I wouldn't mind seeing an increase in sales.

I have to remind myself of what I told myself going into this: It takes a whole lot longer to come back to normal than you think. So much longer, actually, that it usually doesn't happen until you've given up on your hope, and adjusted to a lower standard, and forgotten about it...

Which is a long time. I think that's what I should expect to happen this time, too.

My looking for an increase on the upside, is just residual optimism. I can't help it.

"Your growth is typical, minus construction."

The quote above was into today's Bulletin article: "With fewer seasonal jobs, region sees unemployment rates creep upward."

Combine that with the national news: "New Home sales plunge 33%." and "Sales of existing homes fell in May."

So the "minus construction" part of the equation is unlikely to change anytime soon. Even a year ago, Bend had some major commercial construction jobs being finished up, but those appear to be over.

What we have are: "accommodation and food services" jobs; you know, waiters, cooks, maids, clerks, etc. etc.

***********

Meanwhile, for those who aren't paying attention. Cascade Bancorp is fighting to keep their Nasdaq listing, by having a reverse stock split. Again, I have a simple question. How does this address the fundamental problems? It seem like merely a trick.

Anyway, some of the stockholders apparently didn't care for it at all, and CACB's stock dropped nearly 12% yesterday...

**********

How do I get one of these fancy "consultant" jobs?

From the 10/23/10 Bulletin. "Deschutes County needs strategic epicenter, consultant says: A four-year university, an innovation epicenter to commercialize research, a friendlier regulatory environment for businesses and more outgoing people."

Also, lots of free money.

And rich people.

Um.....Disneyland, maybe. Harry Potter Theme Park?

And as well as more outgoing, we need smarter, hard working, honest, oh, the hell with it:

On my honor, I will do my best
To do my duty to God and my Country and to obey the Scout Law;
To help other people at all times;
To keep myself physically strong, mentally awake, and morally straight.

As long as you're paying me a consulting fee, I should mention I'd like mostly good-looking and healthy types, well-educated and read, and socially, politically and culturally active.

Can I have my money now?

Downtown Openings and Closings.

I went ahead and added a couple of new businesses. Bourbon St. is offering a coupon, so you'd think they are real. Feather's Edge, I've only heard the name and that it's in my building, but I don't know what it is...

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Bourbon Street, Minnesota St., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota St., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Tart, Minnesota Av. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota St., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Av., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minn. Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Jonah Hex

I've been telling my customers that I thought Jonah Hex might be all right -- as long as they didn't go Wild, Wild Westish.

What did they go and do? Yep. Steam punk, mixed with a bit of supernatural, like Constantine (another comic character the movies messed with.)

My theory is -- the more faithful a movie is to the original comic material, the better the movie. I read the first 15 issues of Jonah Hex, and it was mostly a revenge western. I don't remember the supernatural elements, nor the steam punk elements. They might have been there, but it wasn't the focus. Nor was it the focus of the older comics, if I'm remembering rightly.

Now I like steam punk, but it doesn't mix that well with Westerns, most of the time.

I had more in mind -- Clint Eastwood. Let's see, let's compare a couple of modern Westerns; Unforgiven, and Wild, Wild West. One is an artistic and commercial success, and one is a huge flop. Which example did Jonah Hex follow?

Megan Fox is gorgeous to look at, though uncomfortably dewy. She needs some voice lessons to put some life into her lines -- she needs acting lessons, though they weren't much needed in this movie.

Oh, and Malkovich? He's reached that point in his career where he can make good money as the spectacularly florid villain. Read them quirky lines, baby! It's like a pension plan for great character actors -- Walken, Oldman, and the late great Dennis Hopper.

I don't know, I think I would've taken the special effects budget, and instead spent it on vast, arid panoramas and straight ahead gunfights and, well, done a Western. With a guy with a disfigured face.

Finally, I can never talk about Jonah Hex without my favorite story. When the original series was canceled back in the 70's (80's?) the writers were so pissed off, that they killed Jonah Hex. They had him stuffed, and put into a carnival.

Efficient, my ass.

So my first invoice for the July billing period comes in at TWICE the average, or three times what I originally ordered (with reorders.) Garrrrrrrr.

Kind of like starting off a diet by gaining 5 pounds. It's kind of deflating.

I'm trying to use it as a motivator to get even more serious about budgeting.

Anyway, the rest of this post is pretty inside baseball business stuff....



This outsized invoice is why, folks, I find myself needing to order for the low end of the spectrum instead of the high end of the spectrum. I could maximize my sales if I could get an even flow of product, matching sales -- to cashflow -- to orders.

But, no. The producers and distributors seem incapable of delivering on time and as promised.

So I'm more or less forced to accept negative cash flow positions, or make my pre-orders as small as possible. I hate that I have to choose the lowest common denominator.

Wait, you say. Won't it all even out in the long run?

With dated material, that's not the way it really works. I sell the vast majority of my product on the week to ten days after it arrives. I am going to average a certain moderate level of sales, no matter how much stuff comes in. Getting twice the material doesn't mean I'll sell twice as much stuff, and getting half the material doesn't mean I'll sell more of the last overflow.

I don't think the producers and distributors fully understand how they limit their own sales to the retailers -- at least, surviving retailers.

The temptation is to order at the highest average, and accept the occasional double and triple week, and figure that I'll maximize the sales. And so I may. For weeks, months, or years.

But it is the equivalent of gambling, and inevitably, some season down the road, I'll get four or five huge ordering weeks in a row, and four or five bad sales weeks in a row, and I'll pile up the red ink before I can change course. (I normally order up to 3 months in advance -- on the stuff that actually can be predicted. The other stuff -- anywhere from 3 months to 2 YEARS>)

So, I'm a guy who actually has ordered with blowouts in mind. And I still get the occasional blowout weeks. If I was actually ordering at some high average, this weeks order would have been cripplingly large. Simply put, getting twice (or triple -- or quadruple) the material might increase sales 5 or 10 or even 20%, but it won't double. And if the next week is half as much, it doesn't mean the previous weeks material will sell instead.

I've long ago adapted by making half of my orders,-- reorders. That is, I reorder half of my inventory after the release date. By getting 3 times the material I really need this week, it means that my reorders will be small or nil over the next couple of weeks to compensate. Which means that I'll have spot shortages on significant evergreen material, because Marvel, and DC, and Diamond can't be bothered to deliver their product in a timely manner.

Product dumps, usually on the last week of the month, are a constant problem in this industry, and the retailers have been quite clear about this. (Retailers managed to get a stopgap measure of being able to return "late" material if it extends into a third month. The unintended consequence is that the last week of every month is the last chance by many publishers to avoid that penalty. )

And the problem has gotten only worse.

During convention season, it becomes even more of a problem, as comic publishers hold back and release all their "New" shiny special stuff around time of the San Diego Con. Game distributors wait for the big game conventions.

I can't understand why Diamond can't assign a traffic manager, who will enforce an even flow of material. It might mean holding back on some material, (and it might mean that publishers will be forced to allow returns, but that's only fair) , but as long as everyone gets it at the same time, I'd prefer that solution to these periodic blowouts.

I always get a hoot out of people saying big business is "efficient." From my experience, the bigger the business, the LESS efficient it is.

Whimpering out.

Oh, the mighty roars of the iconoclasts. Bend is doomed! Doomed I tell you! Everyone who disagrees is an idiot! You'll see! Yoooouuu'lllll see! Just wait! ( Circa 2007.)

And then silence.

Thing is, most of those predictions were right.

H. Bruce has a column about the migration flows as of 2008, which seem to show an influx. I do think this is dated, but I also think it's a continuation of what's the natural flow toward what Bend will be -- vacation, retirement, and second homes. I still get people in the door my age or older who are talking about moving here, or have just moved here.

I also get a lot of younger, working age people say they are leaving.

Lots of brave talk about bringing in "living wage" jobs, but not much execution. Lots of talk about higher education, and training. Again, it isn't much happening.

These goals take a bunch of money which we don't have.

What we do have is tourism and retirement.

I don't really see housing coming back. 27 building permits in May would seem pretty pathetic since we'd normally be moving into prime building season. The Bulletin asks, Shadow Inventory? Hey, just look around you. Just look at the weed infested lots on the west side. Ask yourself how many homes were parked into 'rentals' until the market turned around.

Retail? Yes, downtown continues to fill up, but I kind of predicted that too. I thought the overflow of interest would continue for some time, maybe even long enough to bridge the gap between the bubble bursting and a real recovery. But you don't want to scratch too deep as to the real strength of all those retailers. A surge of consignment shops? Along with second-hand stores and antique stores, this is a negative indicator.

The biggest whimpering out, are the "Destination Resorts" which have quietly dropped most of their marketing campaigns, and/or put their plans into mothballs. They've made their "private" golf courses "public" and tried to make it sound like it was something they WANTED to do.

Or maybe the biggest whimpering out are the overreaches -- Juniper Ridge and the BAT. Quietly, behind the scenes, these are being off loaded.

So why aren't the iconoclasts pointing, and saying, "I told you so?"

The unwinding is slow and tedious. Plus, I gots to wonder if lots of these guys, who seemed so sure the downturn wasn't going to affect them, did indeed get hammered. A sinking ship takes everyone down.

There seemed to be a pretty steady drumbeat of "green shoot" news there for awhile. (Amazingly, the Bulletin has actually been a little restrained in their reporting -- as if realizing that Bend is a special case. They hint around the edges, that we're in for a whimpering rcovery, but also a whimpering bad time.)

I've said before, I miss the iconoclasts, but I think the poor dears are all worn out....

Whimper....

Like a breath of fresh air.

After thirty years, a certain amount of cynicism sets in. I've always admired teachers, for instance, who can keep each school year fresh. But...experience after experience after experience can make you....realistic? Sober? Wary?

So it's been fun to have the three young guys I have currently working for me. They are peppy and fresh, and they seem to like working in a comic store, and they read a lot of the same comics my customers read and like talking about them. (I, on the other hand, tend to be efficient about moving people along, and...I read comics that either no one reads, or one or two people read.)

I've tried not to influence these guys too much. I've tried not to give them too many instructions. (I have a tendency to lecture and lecture and say too much.) I want them to explore the possibilities.

For one thing, if they sell the same exact stuff I suggest that they sell, where's the advantage in that? Preferably, each of them would sell a slightly different mix of product.

I've always been lucky in that I could hire from my customer base. I get to observe their behavior for a period of time, and judge their character. It's amazing the clues you can pick up from the little things -- which represent the big things.

But mostly their good attitude seems to be, I hate to say it, a function of age. They are young. They just haven't become jaded. They think it all ought to be fun. Having a job is an adventure to them.

I've lightened up a lot in the last year. I stopped trying to control my customers behavior about a year and half ago, and that pretty much stopped the occasional disputes. I've had more time off, and that has made me a bit more fresh. I've learned to zip my mouth shut. Over these 30 years, I've had runs of really good attitude, and a few runs of bad attitude, and a whole lot in-between. But I'll probably never again have the innocence I see in these young guys.

I was talking to Matt at the end of the day yesterday, after I'd gone home early because I was feeling a little sour, and I kind of blurted out to him, "You guys are a breath of fresh air."

And I realized I totally meant it.

Downtown Openings and Closings

Saw a tweet from someone yesterday who said there was a coupon for a business called Bourbon Street at #5 Minnesota.

Odd, I thought. I looked it up in the yellow pages, and sure enough that's the Staccato's address.

Since it was still rumor, I didn't post it. Nor have I added Bourbon Street to the new list, though I suspect I will be doing so soon. So Staccato lost their lease? Um.....that's the oldest fig leaf in the books, but let them have it. Sounds like, though, that the landlords had made concessions but were unwilling to go further, and were able to line up a new tenant instead.

I've actually eaten at Staccato more than once -- which is pretty unusual for me; and may have foretold their doom...

I've heard tell of another business opening on my street, but since the FOR LEASE sign is still in the window, I'll wait for confirmation.

Again, not to be negative: New business's are great and all, and better than empty spaces, but a strong economy would keep more of the older, established businesses around. I'd prefer that. New businesses represent hope, not experience...

Still, I suppose a little 'creative destruction' keeps things hopping.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Tart, Minnesota Av. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota St., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Av., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minn. Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Downbeat news?

Maybe it's just me, but this mornings paper had a real downbeat vibe. I mean, the news is almost always about things going off course, but this just seemed....relentless.

Losing the L.A. flight, the state budget problems, the school budget problems, the hotel taxes -- the city looking for a way to give money to builders that they don't actually have....

Hey, City of Bend, giving credits that never get redeemed is a time-honored way to make money. Nothing to be ashamed of.

Anyway, yesterday was the first day of summer, as far as I'm concerned. It was a pretty busy day, but it followed three really sucky days which had me in a downbeat mood. My budget is such, I'm going to make money this summer no matter what -- but I'd rather than make more than little.

I think this month will be down; unless something unusual happens. That will be three months in a row down from last year, which I usually count as a 'trend.' Doesn't really surprise me. But I think, for all intents and purposes, that the double dip has already started for retail. I seem to be ahead of the 'official' acknowledgment of these things by a month or two -- and a good six months or more before it's announced. (I felt the first downturn started almost the same week -- the same day -- as the announcement of Bears Stearns problems; but the official start was months later. Same thing with Lehmen Brothers. My start was that very September, but the official recession start was assigned to Jan.; later pushed back to December. Whatever. The dip starts for me when I start to see it, not when the government tells me...)

In other words, if I waited for someone to tell me that a double dip downturn has started, I'd be nearly a year into the process in the real world.

Like I said, my summer budget is such that I'm going to be making a profit. But I'll do slightly better if I assess the reality better -- and my guess right now is a small downturn, which may not seem like much of a big deal but which I don't really see anyone talking about.

Goodbye Beard.

That's it. It's getting cut down, today. I'm getting sheared. Fleeced. Defoliated. (To the lowest level on the razor -- still a beard, but not a BEARD.)

Honestly, it tickled at night. It was too hot for the weather. And I think it stood out a little too much. Unlike my young customers, I really don't much like standing out in a crowd. I felt that people would walk in the door and hesitate for a second when they saw me.

Linda thinks it's all in my head. I finally said, "So? Which comes first, the chicken or the egg?"

If I'm self-conscious because people are looking at me, or people are looking at me because I'm self-conscious, same diff.

The biggest reason?

I will have the exact same looking beard when I'm 75 years old. Seriously.

I'm not 75 years old yet. Why look like I am?

Pop shorting.

Awesome. The Bulletin just paid for itself: "Put newspapers to work in your garden."

I'm building paths around the 'wild' areas of my property, and this might just be the perfect solution. I always knew the newspaper was .....err, compost.

Just kidding, just kidding.

**********

Last week's entry about Monday being Stepfather's Day probably didn't make much sense. I meant THIS coming Monday, you know, the day after Father's Day....

**********

There you go. Look at all the public money Bend would be foregoing without a public transit system: "...Central Oregon's fledgling transit service stand to split about 6.4 million in state funding." The Bulletin, 10/16/10.

Maybe I'm wrong about all this; if we need a transit district, and I'm willing to accept that we probably do, then missing out on the public monies wouldn't be too smart. I still think they built the damn thing, and said, "There. We can't pay for it, but what are you going to do about it?"

Which is ... rude.

*********

How...appropriate....how synchronistic...how fateful is this? Apple I-Pad is denying acceptance of a graphic novel adaptation of James Joyce, Ulysses.

Wiki: "Since publication, the book attracted controversy and scrutiny, ranging from early obscenity trials to protracted textual "Joyce Wars.""

This following the deletion by Kindle of George Orwell, 1984. They went all Big Brother on their ass.

You couldn't make this stuff up....

**********

I find my position on 'extreme sports' for kids to be a bit uncomfortable. I'm usually the one who says, "Let kids be kids."

I think the difference is when I detect extreme 'pushing' on the part of the parents. Kids take chances, and this is probably a good thing. But it should be something they just do naturally -- and that sometimes I think they are given inordinate attention for taking chances -- and the more extreme the chances, the more attention.

And the kid pushes the envelope too far, maybe farther than he would left to himself. Losing limbs and becoming paralyzed or worse -- one such 'extreme' athlete was profiled in the paper a few years ago, and I noticed that every single picture had him doing something that looked really dangerous, and in every single picture, adults were watching approvingly.

Living your life through your kids is natural, I suppose. But some of these more extreme examples look artificially motivated to me.

"Go kid! Go kid! .....oops."

Linda uses the example of finding out later that our sons were climbing down the Crooked River Gorge to go camping. There would be two ways to respond to that: "Gee, aren't you daring. How fun that must of been!"

Or...."Do you really think that's a good idea?"

Red Meat.

I'm a thinkin' we need some real estate red meat for Paul-doh and Bilbo.

In today's Bulletin: "Few Builders Make Use of Fee Deferrals."

Ever tried to push a wet noodle?

Also in today's paper: "Wilson Development in Works Once Again."

Well, if you read the story -- not really. They want to change the zoning to higher density. (Which would make whoever develops the land more money per foot, no?)

This little tidbit was interesting: The project was being developed when: "...the head investor died shortly afterward and the project lost steam." Once again unmentioned was that the 'head investor' committed suicide, I believe. Which I think is an important part of the story -- it speaks to the very viability of the original project. It didn't fail because of random circumstances.

I know that the Bulletin doesn't want to add the burden and grief of the families -- me neither, and I've avoided using the name. But I still think it is part of the news...

This ship I'm on sucks. Let's sink it!

Saw a movie yesterday, where the young leader of the most powerful country in the world, invades another country with faulty intelligence, looking for mass weapons. He is under the influence of his manipulative older second in command, who is secretly after the real treasures of the weaker country.

This second in command has control of a secret private army. Meanwhile, the invasion raises the religious fervor of the conquered people.

Meanwhile, the local anti-tax small businessman, has created a tea party of bandits who oppose the big government.

Yep....I went to see Prince of Persia.

Dumb fun, just what I was looking for.

**********

Drill baby Drill? Of course not!

We just want the oil. Let the OTHER countries suffer the environmental disasters from now on!

**********

I've sort of avoided the invasion of digital comics because it's a hugely complicated and unknowable subject that I can't do anything about anyway. A third of the top ten I-pad downloads(?) are comics. There was a recent poll of comic retailers that asked how many would sign a New five year lease, and -- to me -- an astounding 40% of them didn't say Yes (uncertain and/or no.)

Marvel has decided to release Invincible Iron Man Annual #1 digitally at the same time as physically to the brick and mortar stores. They are charging 1.99 per three installments, which actually makes it more expensive than the comic.

Thing is, there is the suspicion on the part of most of us retailers that: (1) soon the price will drop; (2) soon they will start releasing more titles, (3) soon they will release some titles before we get them, and (4) soon they will release an 'exclusive' online title and so on.

The concern about comic shops from the online critics is touching: Not.

"Marvel should take a page out of Steve Job’s notebook on this one. Be visionary and push ahead no matter who it pisses off. Especially if it’s good for the company, readers and the industry itself.

What do retailers think of Iron Man Annual Digital? Honestly, Marvel shouldn’t care." (PVP Online.)

This is very similar to the attitude of the same publishers and creators toward comic shops when it appeared that the mass market book retailers were going to make real inroads on the graphic novel world. That faded, but I haven't heard any mea culpa's.

I have a very unique perspective on this: I actually carry most of the art books and independents and literary comics that these critics think all comic shops should sell. I can make them work because I get Just Enough tourist traffic to come close to break-even. I also make enough money in my other product to buy these books as 'promotional' or 'advertising' material. As if to say, "Look I carry a large, and diverse selection."

But I would never say they sell well. And I would never second guess other retailers, especially small town comic retailers, who decide they can't afford these 'art' graphic novels.

I'm not talking about the quality of these offerings. They are great reads -- and I think they are worthy of support. Like old Hollywood putting out "prestige" movies that don't earn a profit, and making their money from the pot-boilers.

But they sell very slowly and sporadically, no matter how much I push them.

This drives the elite comic creators'crazy. They can't understand it. And when their material sells online, it's just proof that we comic retailers are doing a lousy job.

Anyway, I can't prove it, but I really doubt the whole infrastructure of comics can survive without brick and mortar stores. Oh, sure, comics will survive in some format or another, but the neat little world of comics that currently exist will fall apart. It ain't that strong in the first place.

It won't take much. And, even if eventually some sort of digital content replaces the current system, there is going to be a scary shake-out that is going to hurt a lot of people -- including the same creators and publishers who are calling for it.

Watch out what you wish for.

Shortly popping.

New York Times headline:

"Study Says Math Deficiencies Increase Foreclosures Risk."

"...borrowers with poor math skills were three times more likely than others to go into foreclosure..."

That's just.....funny. Or sad. Or something.

**********

So it's sinking in. With the oil spill.

We're just fucked.....

See what happens with pretend and extend? Sometimes there is no easy solution. Sometimes it just has to play out. Sometimes you have to pay the piper.

**********

I've been predicting for awhile now that the city of Bend would try to offload the BAT on someone else -- though why anyone else would take on the money drainer is a good question. Perhaps they could find ways to integrate the government subsidies? Whatever.

I suspect that they want to unload this white elephant so that the responsibility -- and the blame -- will be someone elses. Whoever takes it on can do the same thing -- it was the fault of the 'other' guy-- and thus it gets perpetuated. And if it eventually fails, the responsibily is so muddy by then, that everyone walks away without blame.

I predict the same thing with Juniper Ridge; that the city of Bend will sell it for a pittance to raise cash. I wonder if they wouldn't be better off holding onto it for now, and mothballing it. But...a steady loss may be too much pressure.

It's a bit like a corporation spinning off a money losing division -- and dumping as many debts as possibly on the poor thing, which is destined to fail. Or, the big banks spinning off the toxic assets on the American public. Even if it's legal, it ethically bankrupt.

**********

Speaking of ethically bankrupt, there was an article in today's Bulletin about a "California Ponzi scheme" and this quote leapt out at me: "...Irving, who lost $1.7 million in Heckschert's Ponzi scheme. 'But I still love the guy.'"

WTF?

It doesn't seem to matter whether a charming con man fleeces these fools of small amounts or large amounts. The victims seem almost complicit to me, in their lack of responsibility or rational thought.

Like I said, I've had competitors (years ago) who were charmers and at the same time ethically dubious, and I got back the same, "Oh, I like him."

I wonder if it's a complete lack of self-esteem. "He likes me and treats me good, so it's O.K. that he totally stripped me of my savings...."

**********

Speaking of lack of self-esteem. I watched the end of the Tony Awards last night, and it seems like Broadway is sucking up to Hollywood. I mean, one big star winning; Denzel Washington, Scarlett Johansson, or Zeta-Jones, I could believe; but all three? And notice how often the English actors win. Just saying, I wonder if they're cynically trying to boost box office, or theres a bit of insecurity there.

**********

More drizzly weather? I don't care what Black Dog says, this is more than normal. But...it gives me a few more cool days to get my gardening done. (One thing about gardening -- I go to bed all itchy and scratchy and feeling like there are bugs -- yuck.) My beard and hair are so long, they tickle. Tickled and scratchy -- makes it hard to sleep.

Short pops

KTVZ headline: "Krasev also lied to OLCC on resume."

Well......duh.

**********

I had a Japanese calendar in my office for the first half of the year -- and I couldn't use it. The beginning of the week was Monday, instead of Sunday, and I just couldn't wrap my brain around it.

**********

We need "used" shopping bags at our stores: it would be an environmental pity to buy new ones if we can avoid it. Just drop them off at Linda's store, with much thanks...

*********

Finally visited Trader Joe's yesterday, and I felt like a tourist walking around. I'm so not a foodie.

Here's what I think I saw, with my innocent eyes: lots of Trader Joe's brands, in small bottles....

**********

Sold all my Tru Blood bottles at the store. I wonder if they are still available?

Ready for the start of the new season tonight. Finally, an event show!

*********

News story about the dangers to the heart of taking pain relievers like Aleve every day. I usually pop one every night, and it helps me sleep -- and it helps with the teeth grinding tendency.

I tried to go without a pill last night, but I was so achy from gardening I couldn't do it.

**********

I have to make my yearly observation that Stepfather's Day is tomorrow!

**********

Took my friend Wes, who lived in Bend years ago, on a tour of west Bend. There were a lot of overgrown yards, and lots rimmed in weeds. Very, very tall weeds. The weather has incubated a monster season for weeds and grasses....

**********

Downtown Openings and Closings

I've taken Urban Minx off the "Leavings" list.

I've added a new store: BLVD. , a clothing store in the Penny Galleria.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Tart, Minnesota Av. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota St., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails

BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Showcase Hats, 6/1/10
Cork, Oregon Av., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minn. Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Some obvious stuff I nevertheless feel I must say...

Sending teenagers into danger. Sailing around the world. Climbing Everest.

Go. Read INTO THIN AIR, and then ask yourself what kind of parents would encourage their young son to climb Everest. I believe I read somewhere that for every 4 climbers who summit, one of them dies.

This narcissistic hunger for fame has long ago gotten out of hand.

Sure kids want to do that stuff. Sure extreme sports look like a blast. But a life-time injury or a lost limb or death seem like a high price to pay for a few minutes of thrill. Isn't part of the job of a parent to deny a bit of the short-term thrill in favor of long-term safety? Am I all wet, here?

**********

Bend taking stimulus money to build yet more "affordable housing." On one hand, we'd be pretty stupid to turn down the money and it will have a marginal effect on wages. On the other hand, there is a homeless event that might do some real, honest to goodness good, that can't be insured. You have to wonder about systematic priorities that can't adjust to the reality of the moment.

The whole "affordable housing" theme has always seemed somewhat off base to me. Lots of empty houses around here...It seems to me that the same money used to build 'new' housing could be spread a lot more evenly and efficiently as subsidies to get homeless into existing housing....

**********

Meanwhile, back at the store...

We have entered that ten day period in mid-June when everyone gets distracted. Kids getting out of school, vacation planning, second home moving, etc. etc. It's as though summer kicks in for real. About the last week of June is when things settle down and people start spending again.

I've said this before, but it's really true, summer business used to start about two week earlier, around Memorial Day. But schools seemed to extend farther into summer every year -- well, until recently, that is.

To compensate, summer business now extends into mid-September, when it used to come to a dead stop around Labor Day.

I usually try to save up my ammunition (money) from late May and early June until this period right here and now: If I order stuff this week and next, it will arrive just as Summer kicks in.

Though I've also learned that I'm actually better off ordering the most material in the off months, and less in the busy months, exactly opposite of what one would expect. I think its because of the out-of-town and off-the-street foot traffic, people who are finding stuff that all my regulars have passed on but which is all new to them, and so the inventory tends to sell on a broader range....

The biggest exception to that is Boardgames. I need to really stock up on them, because they sell best in Summer and Christmas, and tail off the rest of the year. So, I'm going to spend at least part of this weekend researching games and making sure I have an adequate stock.

I also stock up on Calvin and Hobbes and Garfield and The Far Side and Dr. Suess and Asterix and TinTin and mainstream impulse items that sell.

This year is a little different in that I'm usually recouping my debt on orders from the slow months during the summer, and most often don't catch up until September, when the whole process stars again. (Ordering big in Sept., Oct. Nov., and paying for it with Christmas).
This year I'm actually caught up at the start of July, so can spend a bit more than usual. It's nice to turn that around, and I'll be curious is it helps boost sales.

Simple math.

A lot of simple math can be used in calculating how successful your business might be. A good, rigorous business plan should do some of this for you.

For instance, divide the known # of stores in your industry by the population, which should tell you if you have sufficient population to survive. Add or subtract factors like tourism, or online sales, etc. But, at the core, if there are 2000 comic shops in America, chances are you need at least 175K population to make it. So you're brilliant and effervescent and bubbly? Maybe you can do it with 150K.... You are willing to work 60 hours a week (and remain brilliant and effervescent and bubbly?), maybe 125K. But it's best to bet on the average, and work up from there....

Similarly, you should be able to get a general idea of 'Sales per Foot.' So if the average bookstore sells at 'such and such' a margin, per foot, and your overhead is 'this much' you can work out whether your store will generate enough sales to pay the overhead. So if you take footage out of retail for service, (coffee, tables, books) then you need to calculate how much extra you are likely to sell in the sq. footage you do have. High rents require higher sales per foot, obviously.

Or 'Sales per Unit'. You can work out how many books you are likely to sell per 10,000 in stock, say, and decide if your books are so good that they'll sell twice as good, or your margins are twice as good, or some combination thereof.

'Average gross profit per sale.' How much each item's Cost of Goods was; the higher the margin, the lower sales you can get away with. The lower the margin, the higher. I've always abided by the 40% margins rule for small business, give or take a few random circumstances, and it's been pretty true for 26 years.

These may seem simple and obvious, but I think sometimes that us Mom and Pop stores have to learn some of these lessons the hard way. When I finally went up to the Small Business department at C.O.C.C. I was taught a simple little formula that has been a life-saver.

Overhead divided by margin = sales.

Nice and simple.

For instance, an overhead of $5000.00 divided by a 40% margin, means you need $12,500.00 to break-even.

You want to be cheaper, sell everything at 20% off? $5000.00 divided by 20%, means you need $25,000 in sales.

You make your own product and can sell for 60% margins? $5000.00 divided by 60%, means you only need 8333.00 in sales to break even.

You own your own building free and clear and work all the hours yourself, so your overhead is only 2000.00 a month? $2000.00 a month divided by 40%, means you need only $5000.00 in sales.

And so on.

None of us are immune from these basics. We all have to calculate overhead costs, and margins and inventory and sales and number of hours worked and ways to get noticed and location and so on....

What one area of the store gives, another area of the store takes away.

The only time I've ever worried about competition is when they seem to be operating outside the normal perimeters. Because, if they are 'reality based' I figure I can compete.

For instance, I had a store that was consistently charging about 20% less than me in a certain product. As you can see from the example above, that would normally mean that store would have to sell $25K worth of product instead of $12.5K worth of product. I found out later they were getting free rent at their location.

And so on...

Anyway, obviously no business is going to last very long without doing these things. It's mostly common sense -- from the start I knew that my overhead couldn't be more than the gross profit, even if it wasn't altogether clear.

When I went up to the college, the small business adviser said I had a "primitive sophistication" in business. Heh. I'll still cop to that, just with way more experience.

Thing is, no one really teaches Mom and Pop. They teach accounting and such, but most of those systems are way too complicated and unnecessary for a M & P.

Cash flow and inventory turnover are probably the two hardest things to figure out, and every business will be different. It took me forever to realize that even at 40% margins I had to sell an item 4 or 5 times to make the profit and still have the inventory and since I was growing inventory for most of my career the formula was even more severe and since business was often slow necessitating discounts it was even more severe....

The two questions early in my career that would send a chill down my back, and to which I am still responding to (like old tapes) is:

"Is this all you got?"

And "Why is this so high priced?"

I don't get either question much, anymore, but somehow I still am trying to answer them.
I think the "Is this all you got?" still happens occasionally for an individual product, and the "why is this priced so high" is just unspoken.

Having a store full of material and appearing to be thriving is the best answer to both questions.

Anyway, I don't think it's actually all that hard to figure out a rough estimate of overhead, and a good estimate of profit margins, and -- the hardest -- an estimate of sales (based on industry averages, etc.)

Or maybe it's just easy for me after all these years, but I can usually do a "Blink" assessment and I think I come pretty close. I don't know background circumstances, like how much money the owners have and how much motivation they have. But I've decided that it almost doesn't matter, because no amount of motivation and money will overcome flawed business plans.

So many things to say....

...so few politically correct ways to say them.

I read the Source last night, and...I'm literally biting my tongue. It behooves me to shut the fuck up.

So I will.

I won't say anything.

I'm going to tend to my own knitting, by god. Till my own garden. Mind my own business.

**********

I was talking to a customer that I hadn't seen in years, and he was marveling at the growth of the store. He asked me why I was doing so well, when others were suffering.

First of all, I'm surviving, which is good, but I'm not exactly getting rich.

But as to why we're surviving: I think everyone is allowed one bubble to learn from. Unfortunately, (fortunately?) big bubbles may only come around once or twice in a career, and often wreck the business before any lessons can be learned.

I didn't know it at the time, but having gone through at least 7 bubbles, really prepared me for the big one. Hell, I didn't even learn enough from the first bubble, (sports cards) and proceeded to make nearly as many mistakes on the second bubble (comics). So much for being smart.

I then continued to make mistakes on the third and fourth bubbles (magic and non-sportscards) , and probably only really figured out how to handle the process with the fifth, sixth, and seventh bubbles (pogs, beanie babies, pokemon.).

This would be the 8th bubble, and while it's certainly economy ranging and a major bubble, it isn't even in the top half of the bubbles I've experienced, in terms of drop in sales.

So, just surviving a few bubbles has been the experience I needed to see another one coming and prepare....

Like being inoculated with cowpox to avoid small pox.

(That doesn't mean there might not be some other, unforeseen plague around the corner. In fact, I expect there is one. Which is another lesson from experience....)

**********

Yesterday was kind of a declaration of intent. I'm going to earn a good profit.

It's a way to stiffen the old spine.

This will work if and only if I can stick to my budget. So this morning I woke up, checked the Sales online, did a modest order, looked it over and decided it was all very marginal and deleted.

I'd be much better off spending that money on the good boardgames I'll be selling all summer....

**********

Reading over the first part of this post, I realized I didn't really say anything about HOW I prepared for the bubble.

1.) Eliminate debt.
2.) Keep overhead well below the break-even point.
3.) Keep your margins, don't panic.
4.) Fill your store with product.
5.) Don't preorder too much stuff.
6.)Don't spend the 'boom' money.
7.)Have a fall back plan.
8.)Mind your own advice.
9.)Don't overextend (or expand.)
10.)Work your own store.

There are plenty more, but these are off the top of my head.

Making a profit and danger signs.

Warning. I'm planning to start making a profit this July, and from then on.

I've been preparing this for months. Getting the store fully stocked at the same time as paying off all the bills. Running a business really is like turning an ocean liner in the middle of a canal; it can take months, even years to prepare.

So that's great, right?

I'm finally ready. One more week and we start the July billing period; from then on, I need to match last year's average and stick to my budget.

Hey, I should be encouraged, right?

Here's the thing. I've done this about half a dozen times over the years. I've worked and worked and prepared, got the store completely under control, and said: "HERE, this (future date) is when I'll start to become profitable."

The day comes --- and the future recedes. For example, I decided that September, 2001 was great time to get going....Heh. Sept, 2007 was another moment; and Sept, 2008, and so on....

After having this happen so many times, I've decided this can't just be an accident. It isn't just bad luck, or selective perception, or superstition. It's a real phenomenon. Something about my impulse to pick a certain date, and my ability to prepare, is connected to the overall economy in ways I can't quite fathom.

So, I give you fair warning. I'm planning to start turning a good profit on July 1, so the chances of a meteor strike have just gone up dramatically.....

"We've always lost a day, and we always want to lose a day...."

I understand that other people think differently than me, but I'm always a little surprised when my peers in the industry think so differently.

To me, much of of what we should do and not do seems obvious. It seems like we should all be on the same page.

The proposal to deliver comics on Monday, for Tuesday sales, seems like a complete no brainer. So I've been astonished and discouraged by the response.

My peers seem to be against it. At least, enough of the vocal ones to muddy the waters.

Tuesdays are a dead day for comics. I just don't sell any. I get comics in around noon on Wednesday, and it takes me until 2:00 to put them out for sale, so another half a day gone.
So being able to get the comics ready a day early, look for shortages, make reorders, seems absolutely perfect. Then, to have comics out early Tuesday morning adds a selling day (and a half) to the week.

Not to mention saving on the stress of having to do it under pressure, and making mistakes.

Mondays have always been good, I suppose because it's the start of the week.

The arguments against are mostly ridiculous: Such as, "We would compete with the other Tuesday releases; movies, music, games, etc."

To which I answer: So ? -- We are already competing, but we've given our customers a full day head start to blow their paycheck on the competing product. And -- do you suppose the other industries who are so much bigger and more lucrative than us know something about the best day to introduce new product.

But most of the arguments against Tuesday delivery boiled down to this: it's a change, and we don't like change.

"But we've trained all our customers to come in on Wednesday!"

So? -- Train them to come in on Tuesday! The beauty of this is that they can still come in on Wednesday if they please, AND they can come in on Tuesday.

Anyway, I'm mystified by the response, discouraged by the traction it's gotten, and afraid that Diamond is just going to throw up its hands and say: "O.K. Have it your way. Wednesday delivery it is."

Book capsules.

I've fallen about 3 books behind on my 'book a week' pace I set for myself. I could easily have kept up, just by reading faster books, but I decided that just racking up the numbers wasn't really the purpose -- which is to steadily read.

The last book I read in one day, the two books before that took three days a piece; the book before that took two weeks.

Ironically, this S.F. series I've embarked on is probably the least well-written and takes much longer to finish. A bit like a T.V. show that you get halfway through and realize it's not too good but you want to see to the finish. And sometimes, I'm just in the mood for sprawling space opera.

I don't remember when I last did reviews, so I'll start with the books I've read since mid-april or so.

The Devil's Eye, Jack McDevitt. To tell the truth, I had to dig up the book to remember its storyline. It's part of a series about an interstellar antiquities dealer, Alex Benedict and his beautiful assistant, Chase Kolpath, who have tendency to dig up ancient conspiracies and civilizations. I enjoy it, but obviously it doesn't stick.

Eifelheim, Michael Flynn. I guess if yo want to be nominated for a S.F. award, just set your novel in the Middle Ages... Interesting read, though I get impatient with medieval stuff, sometimes.

Night of Thunder, Stephen Hunter. Nearly my favorite thriller writer. Hunter used to be a movie critic with the Wash. Post, and he used to put down any super-hero type movie, which is interesting because his characters are nearly superhuman. Deadly fast and smart and tough.

Forest of Stars, Kevin J. Anderson. The space opera I was talking about. 600 pages, and paper thin characters and not much surprising. Some interesting concepts, but as with the first books, I'm not sure I'll continue. At least not right away.

The Defector, Danial Silva. Superagent Gabrial Allon, who Silva attributes just about every Isreali undercover success of the last 30 years....Fun and fast to read.

Lost City of Z, David Grann. Non-fiction book about the explorer Percy Fawcett who disappeared in the Amazon jungle in 1925 looking for, well essentially, El Dorado.

Indiana Jones lives! Great stuff.

It seems like much of the pulp fiction I read from the '40's and 50's were based on someone very much like Percy Fawcett (or his rival Hamilton Rice.)

Oh, and half the comics I currently read. You can just see the genesis of adventure stories: The Lost World, by Arthur Conan Doyle was directly based on Fawcett. Last year's UP, comes to mind.

Then, yesterday, I read The 47th Samurai, by Stephen Hunter. This guy is really good, and these thrillers have a propulsive quality that's hard to put down.

Not extensive reviews, I know. You guys don't pay me well enough for extensive reviews.....

Getting started...

There are two activities I love when I do them, but which I have a hard time starting.

Reading comics.

And Gardening.

The trick in gardening is to start slow; pull a few weeds, and see where it leads. 4 hours later, I've covered a pretty wide swath. I'm trying to not overdo it this spring (? it IS spring, isn't it?). It makes me realize I'm not in the best shape, all the more reason to garden...

I'm also always amazed at how much I get done -- and at the same time, amazed by how much more I need to do.

I've mentioned before, my Mom, Libby, was a great gardener. She knew her plants, but also created a pleasant space. I think I may be more of an architectural gardener, if you will. I don't know the plants that well, though I learned the basics of how to plant and nurture.

But I love designing the borders and paths. I spent a bunch of time pulling weeds out of the lava rock outcroppings -- leaving the bare rock and moss, almost sculptural.

When we first bought the house, I subdivided "Libby's" plants and kind of just planted them willy nilly the first year. Unknowingly, I created a Darwinian situation. Some of the plants did well under the junipers and in the lava dust and others suffered. Some died.

Some of those who suffered the first couple years, have revived. Others seemed to do well right off the bat.

So far I'm just colonizing the rest of the garden with the plants I already have, plus a few I bought a couple of years ago.

So far, I'm doing a hold and defend strategy: I make sure the areas I've already cleared and weeded stay clean; only then do I move on. I tend to dig way down with the grasses, and where I do that, they don't come back.

The lawn guys just laid down the sod, and the three quarters of the yard I cleared are free of the weed grasses, but the third they did are already infested. I wish I'd been able to finish it.
I'm thinking I may have to pull up at least part of the sod, removed the bad grass, and transplant the new sod -- you know, twice, three times the works. But once done....

I got a lot done yesterday, but man was I sore last night. I tore off about a third of fingernail without noticing, and that's been painful. I've never been able to garden with gloves -- that's like sex with a condom, it doesn't feel quite the same.

Linda being out of town for a wedding, I decided to drink some wine last night -- only the second time this year. I mulled over my life -- veritas -- and decided that I like what I'm doing, I just need to do MORE of it. Writing, gardening, reading, traveling....

Going outside to do a bit of weeding -- not putting on my heavy duty gardening clothes, because I just want to do some touch up, and I know that if I have my boots on, I'll get carried away.

And then, tonight, I'm going to sit down a read a stack of comics....

Beardy thots.

So now all Big beards go away and me still have big beard...well, maybe not so big beard, so other mans with bigger beard, four times bigger beards, me feel so inadequate, bunch of showoffs, I could showoff if I felt like it, big deal anyman and manywoman can grow beard but I grow beard for right reasons like it keep me warm and toasty and I think woman like testosterone evidence, so there.

Best buddy bigfoot have even bigger beard, whole body beard, and girls love him -- except for the smell, and the bad manners, but good guy good beard, big , big beard.

Fancy smanchy beards, groomed like, what a waste. My beard show grow glorious and wild and tickle at night when one sleeps, and invade nostrils and choke and wake up and snort, and fall back to sleep dreaming of hair, glorious hair and wake up and garden and sweat and sweat because I'm so hairy, but good honest sweat and don't you doubt it.

Oh, you think, beard has invaded brain ingrown hairs invading brain, such snobs. You ever grow beard? what do you know?

Your milage is going down....

Speaking of gas guzzlers.

I inherited a 1999 Toyota Solara: with only 20k miles on it. Like new.

I gave my 1990 Toyota to my son, Toby. (Who traded it in for a pickup....doh!)

Anyway, I'm pretty sure I got at least a third better gas mileage on the 1990 car. Which is just wrong, somehow. There should have been incremental improvements in mileage over that 9 years stretch, if that was the goal and it had been mandated.

Meanwhile, Linda bought a brand-new Toyota Rav, and it probably gets even worse mileage. We asked the salesman the mileage, and he spun a pretty good tale, telling us what we wanted to hear, but I think we knew he was giving us the best case scenario, what we wanted to hear, but we wanted the car....

Sorry, brown pelicans.

Beardly observations.,

Nice try at public relations, British Petroleum.

That was sarcasm...

I have two words for you, B.P.

Brown Pelicans!

Even better, pictures of Brown Pelicans covered in gooey crap.

You blew B.P.

No matter what you say or do from now on:

Brown Pelicans!

(And I say to you, the American gas guzzlers and the Obama administration (nice timing on the drilling announcement, by the way), and to myself every time I fill up my car: Brown Pelicans!)

**********

I passed a bunch of magnificently bearded fellows in front of Thumptown on the way to work yesterday.

Bunch of glory hounds. All out for the second-glances, and admirations. They're just in it for the dames. Me? I grow my beard for real, substantive reasons...

Like....I'm too lazy to shave.

**********

"Obama's drill ban may hinder jobs comeback." The Bulletin. 6/5/10.

Oh, Come ON!!!

**********

Spotted Mule.

First off, got to say that Mont West is a great name for the owner of a western store.

Secondly, I wonder if he has the building already leased? It's actually big enough for one of the major chains -- and probably way too big for any local businesses.

Thirdly, more and more I get the sense in talking to other business owners, that it's almost a given that it's more lucrative to liquidate a store than to try and sell it.

**********

"Property Bend spent millions on for city hall now a drain." The Bulletin, 6/5/10.

Kind of funny to me that the newspaper doesn't mention who sold the property until the ninth paragraph.

The former owners? The Bulletin.

Suckers!

I got to say, it seems to me that just about every decision the city council made in during the boom was the wrong one. I mean, flipping a coin would've resulted in better decision making. Or doing the 'Costanza': making your best guess and then doing the opposite.

**********

May results.

Our sales for May were down 6% from last year. I think I mentioned that last May was a bit of an outlier; about 10% higher than the rest of spring last year. So it was going to be hard to beat.

Nevertheless, combined with the 3% drop last month, we are two/thirds of the way to a trend.

In hindsight, it's pretty obvious that the drastic fall in sales that started in Sept. 2008 had begun to level off around April of last year, which makes perfect sense.

I expect we'll have good months and bad months from now on, maybe for a couple more years. I have to remember what I told myself going into this: these things drop farther, last longer than you think they will....


I think the last six months have probably been hard on everyone. Even though the Spotted Mule isn't downtown, it has been around Bend for a long, long time. It once occupied the building next to where the Bookmark is now; I always wondered at the massive building they constructed on Third St.

There have been about 7 businesses closing and 1 business opening in the last two months, which closed the gap downtown. (Openings had been outpacing closings...)


Seven months of increased sales had begun to fool even skeptical old me. I'd begun to factor a 5% increase in sales for my business plans. But, again in hindsight, the increases were rather pathetic when put into the context of how horrible the plunge of 08 was...

Now, I'm factoring in a 5% decrease in sales -- which means I won't be hurt by that amount of drop, and since I'm pretty quick to respond these days, I could probably drop even further -- even with employees and keeping the store up. I intend to make a profit no matter where the sales land.

The optimist in me still thinks that we'll see a 5% increase -- but my planning self is being careful. I have the wonderful luxury of responding the ACTUAL level of sales through my reordering.

Interestingly, our comic and graphic novels accounted for a full 60% of sales in May; they've been hovering at or slightly below 50% for the last few years due to my diversification. It's good that I can count on my regulars even during slow months; and indicates to me that off the street sales were down. My games and books sales being lower, also indicate to me a lack of strength in tourism and walk-ins. My regulars become even more important in slow months.

Another interesting trend is that comics monthlies have actually gained strength, while graphic novels have lost some of their momentum. There was much talk a few years ago of G.N.'s replacing comics; it certainly seemed the trend and I responded to it by increasing my selection mightily. But...it appears to have stalled a bit; not being able to sell Manga is part of that.

But I've also begun to order more monthlies in advance, and to be quicker on reorders, because -- even with the prices going up -- there seems to be nice, solid base of readers.


The overall economy. I've mentioned before that I think we're in a double dip. If it was ever up at all. This was the Kitty Hawk of recoveries -- not much better than a hang glider could do. Not a real powered-up recovery. In fact, if you see the drop-0ff of 2007-2008 as the White Cliffs of Dover type drop-off, it wasn't too hard to glide above those numbers.

So it's -- be careful and watch the skies.

Blog thoughting.

I'd hate to have Nosler's future insurance bills. Or to be his current insurance guy. "You insured an ammunition factory?"

**********
Sometime in the near future, a friendly bald guy, who speaks fluent Spanish and has an eastern accent and plays competition caliber chess will move into a small American town and start telling people conflicting mysterious stories and probably won't be able to help himself screwin' with people....

I wonder how long it will take him to get back....

**********

"I will give you unlimited energy," the Genie said. "There...under the waves, is the magic potion. It is yours for the taking...."

LATER:

"Please Mr. Genie, take it back! I don't want it anymore!"

"I said I'd give you unlimited energy," the Genie said, with an evil grin. "When I said the potion is unending...."

**********

I kept waiting and waiting to mow my new lawn in back; finally just put the mower at the highest level and plowed through. Even then, the mower clogged every couple dozen feet. Weird weather.

**********

Time Machine Moment: If you had told someone ten years ago: One of the two couples at the top of the political heap will get a divorce. BUZZZ. No, it isn't Bill and Hilary.

**********

Time Machine Moment #2: If you were collecting "The Kid's" card in 1989. He'd retire tired and beaten down, with a good career but not one for the ages.

Well, having the fifth most homeruns in history is probably for the ages. But you have to understand the expectations back then. THAT was THE card, let me tell you.

(I'd also have been amazed that Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy and a dozen other players would have their careers foreshortened at below Hall of Fame numbers. I think you have to observe a generation of baseball to understand a generation of baseball.)

**********

Was reading a Dan Silva book, THE DEFECTOR, with the super Israeli agent Gabriel Allon, where everything he does is super competent and super justified. And the fiasco in the Gaza is happening at the same time, and there is some dissonance there. Fiction is fiction.

**********

Twilight of the Twilight.

I've been thinking about crossover hits, and how each of them represent an entire subculture. They're the tip of the iceberg.

Had a couple of Mom's and kids in, and one mother picked up an Ugly Doll and started explaining it to her friend. In return, the other mother picked up a BONE graphic novel and explained it.

Both of these represent a huge world; and each are barely peeking over the waters.

BONE has sold in the millions to schools and libraries. Ugly Dolls are being sold everywhere.

Meanwhile, there are dozens of great graphic novels for kids that the public has never heard of. Meanwhile there are thousands of designer toys, (urban vinyl, whatever you want to call them.) A whole movement that people don't realize exists, but which Ugly Dolls once represented.

I suppose, if look at other categories, there are the obvious Spider-mans and Batmans in comics. These are so mainstream, that calling them crossovers doesn't fit.

But if you go down a level in familiarity, titles like Green Lantern or Flash or Thor or Captain American, are the type of nearly crossover hits that some of the general public has heard of, and some haven't. (For instance, if I wear my Green Lantern symbol shirt, most people don't know what it is, but quite a few do. Whereas, everyone would recognize a Batman or Superman symbol.)

Believe it or not, Iron Man was once considered a secondary level that the public probably wouldn't be interested in. It's success has probably given the green light, if you will, to Green Lantern type movies.

Watchmen used to be the epitome of a crossover title, but has now become so well known that it joins the rest of the pantheon -- Hulk, Daredevil, X-Men.

The near crossovers right now would be, Scott Pilgrim and Walking Dead.

In games, Settlers of Catan and Ticket to Ride are nearly there-- and again represent an entire movement.

In toys for adult boys, the crossover used to be Spawn figures. (Sadly, these have fallen off...not sure why they are being so neglected by McFarlane).

In fantasy art, it's Vallejos and especially Frazetta.

I suppose I should be happy that we have these crossover hits. In the past, they didn't exist. Then again, in the past some of these entire movements didn't exist (Euro boardgames, Urban Vinyl).

I suspect I should also be happy that none of these movements -- graphic novels, euro games, designer toys, etc. are so big that the mass market adopts them lock, stock and barrel.

At least, so far.

Sometimes I think I have a crossover hit, and I totally miss it. I ordered 30 copies of the Twilight Graphic novel, which was crazy. It was like a pitcher throwing the ball and hitting the mascot; a totally wild pitch. After all these years, I still make lulu's like this.