Friday, December 4, 2009

Patience is hard.

I'd love to jump on the "recovery" bandwagon, but I just don't see it.

One thing is becoming ever more clear to me -- last year really, really sucked. The more time passes, the more perspective can be gained. When I see how weak business is right now, and realize that we're beating last year nevertheless, it gives me a bit of the willies.

It also is gratifying in a "survived a grizzly bear attack" sort of way. Not only didn't I lose money last year, it was one of my most profitable ever. Because I saw it coming, and I really prepared for it, and for once in my career, I stayed patient and disciplined in my spending.

Profits are great, and all. Profits are the real point. Still, sales took a hit and I don't like that and I'd much rather be making bigger profits from higher sales than in more efficient operations. (Or maybe I'd like to be making even bigger profits from higher sales AND more efficient operations.)

Those bad times were just what we were living, and while dealing with it, there isn't a whole lot of historical comparisons. Or the historical comparisons are meaningless while you are living them.

It's like looking back at an illness, and realizing just how sick you really were.

Anyway, the fever may have broken, but I'm still sweating.

It's possible business could get better; it much more probable that if it does get better it won't be noticeable at first.

Bottom line, there are plenty of dangers out there still to play out. So it seems prudent to me to expect at least one or two of them to happen. Not to mention, I've always felt it would take Bend a couple of extra years, so even if a sustained recovery is underway in the rest of the country, that doesn't mean it's happening here.

So as much as I'd love to jump on the bandwagon, I think I'll hunker down for another six months and then take another reading of the economic landscape. See what happens to the credit card industry, and what happens with commercial real estate.

Pegasus Books is in good shape. But I don't want to jump too far ahead of the real world. It can be hard to live within a constrained budget, but I can always -- always-- order more stuff if I see a real recovery.

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