Downbeat news?

Maybe it's just me, but this mornings paper had a real downbeat vibe. I mean, the news is almost always about things going off course, but this just seemed....relentless.

Losing the L.A. flight, the state budget problems, the school budget problems, the hotel taxes -- the city looking for a way to give money to builders that they don't actually have....

Hey, City of Bend, giving credits that never get redeemed is a time-honored way to make money. Nothing to be ashamed of.

Anyway, yesterday was the first day of summer, as far as I'm concerned. It was a pretty busy day, but it followed three really sucky days which had me in a downbeat mood. My budget is such, I'm going to make money this summer no matter what -- but I'd rather than make more than little.

I think this month will be down; unless something unusual happens. That will be three months in a row down from last year, which I usually count as a 'trend.' Doesn't really surprise me. But I think, for all intents and purposes, that the double dip has already started for retail. I seem to be ahead of the 'official' acknowledgment of these things by a month or two -- and a good six months or more before it's announced. (I felt the first downturn started almost the same week -- the same day -- as the announcement of Bears Stearns problems; but the official start was months later. Same thing with Lehmen Brothers. My start was that very September, but the official recession start was assigned to Jan.; later pushed back to December. Whatever. The dip starts for me when I start to see it, not when the government tells me...)

In other words, if I waited for someone to tell me that a double dip downturn has started, I'd be nearly a year into the process in the real world.

Like I said, my summer budget is such that I'm going to be making a profit. But I'll do slightly better if I assess the reality better -- and my guess right now is a small downturn, which may not seem like much of a big deal but which I don't really see anyone talking about.