Interesting list of 10 stores who's Holiday Sales may necessitate closing some outlets in 2010. (Warning> this is just a prediction on the part of the article, not yet a fact.)
From 24/7 Wall St.
ZALES: Down 11% 3rd Qt., 2009. 'Will' close 200 stores.
ABERCROMBIE AND FITCH: Down 15 to 17% same store sales, 4th Qt., 2009. 'Will' close 179 stores.
GAMESTOP: "Below forecast..." 'Will' close 400 stores.
BARNES AND NOBLE: Down 5.1% over the holidays. 'Will' close 100 stores.
HOT TOPIC: Same store sales down 11% in Nov., 10% in December. 'Will' close 200 stores.
DILLARD'S: Down 8% in December. 'Will' close 25 stores.
JC PENNY: Down 5% in 4th Qt. (but down 11% in middle of year). 'Will' close 25 stores.
STEINMART: Down 10%. 'Will' close 35 stores.
I noticed they don't even mention the weak sisters from last year, such as Borders or Blockbuster. I think they've already written them off...
The three most interesting stores to me, are Barnes and Noble, of course, Gamestop, and Hot Topic.
I doubt B & N are going anywhere, and by all accounts their Bend store does very well. But I think their glory expansion days are over, and it will be a rear guard action from now on.
Turns out, video games aren't actually doing so hot. Who knew? But talk about your cyclical business. But this is the kind of business that could suddenly rebound with a new technology system or popular game.
Hot Topic complained of "pirated" t-shirts. But you know what, live by the "hot" product, die by the "hot" product. I realized a long time ago that popularity comes and goes, and any store that bases it's business model on popularity will eventually go off a cliff. The real trick is to still have enough customers even when you're off the current 'want' lists and be patient enough for the pendulum to swing back.
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"BARNES AND NOBLE: Down 5.1% over the holidays. 'Will' close 100 stores."
When I was in Hawaii last spring I visited an enormous new B&N store in Maui -- much bigger than the one in Bend, and maybe bigger than the one in Portland's Lloyd Center. I kept wondering how it could possibly make money.
Because it is about the only major book store on Maui. (I think there might be a small chain one in the mall a few miles away, but in general the B&N near the airport is pretty much it for a major book store on Maui. So I expect that it does quite nicely, including tourists going to the airport.
The stock-market...
Just like all the star-bucks, you know in SF in the last 5-10 years you go to a corner and there are 4 starbucks one on every corner WTF?
The wall-street just kept feeding and they kept building,... irrational to have a franchise on every corner? Facing one another? Well now its BendOver(tm) The Wall-Street money will dry up. Nobody ever cared if these places made money, ... its was always presence and marketing, .. like Deschutes having a Portland presence, what a fucking waste of money, probably cost $10M, deschutes should have bought the empty lot next to them 20 years ago, but NO, instead they pay top dollar $5M for a parking garage in PDX, .. and then spend another $5M.
Folks do stupid shit, build, build, .. got to have presence. ...
"Make money?" Does anybody care? All accounting is now 'mark to imagination', ...
It's all going down folks.
"like Deschutes having a Portland presence, what a fucking waste of money, probably cost $10M"
I've heard the Deschutes pub in The Pearl is doing very well. Gary Fish is a shrewd and conservative businessman and I'm sure he exercised due diligence in choosing that location; I haven't seen him make a bad move yet.
"irrational to have a franchise on every corner? Facing one another?"
I one time read a whole article about that. Apparently Starbucks was losing customers because they didn't want to cross the street. You know, walk. So they had to build 2 Starbucks per corner. Gives them access to 1000s of customers walking by who otherwise would never cross the street.
In DC there is one intersection about a block from the mall, near the GW Marriott that had 4 starbucks, one on each corner of the intersection. All were jammed full with lines on the days I walked by.
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