An article in today's Bulletin calls for a "Bottom" to the "Housing numbers."
Well, thank god. At last.
A bottom.....again.....for the 14th time, or so.
If true, Bratton will only have been off by a couple of years. Hey, give the guy a break. It's an inexact science, this prognosticating.....
Actually, I should be fair.
Change of gears.
The headline only "Hint"s at the bottom, and even if "true" it will be a "slow turnaround." This from the CEO of the "region's Realtor association." Lots of caveats there.
Fair enough.
And if true...and we won't really know that until it's been underway for a few quarters-- I suppose there has to be a bottom sometime.
But over on Bend Economy Bulletin Board, someone has pointed out that there were 241 Notices of Foreclosure in the first 15 days of this month. Didn't the paper just recently predict that the NOD's were starting to slow? Turns out, that may have been seasonal, perhaps? The NOD's may have slowed down toward the end of the year, but it's hard to overlook that 82% increase in NOD's last year.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't a whole lot of adjustable rate mortgages still in the pipeline?
It's also a relatively easy matter to check the handy "Price Changes" charts on the BEBB and see that they are still 100% negative.
As the Calculated Risk blog has pointed out, now that the numbers have eased a bit in the central valley of California (which I always figure is about 2 years ahead of us) the "shadow" inventory is starting to make itself known. We have all suspected there was a large chunk of housing out there that maybe hasn't been forced to sell -- but WANTS to sell.
The 'Jack Elliot and Mrs." blog mentioned that Oregon was 11th in foreclosures per housing units nationwide. But we in Central Oregon must realize that while Bend is in Oregon, Oregon is not Bend. A fairer measurement for us would be Las Vegas (Nevada is #1) or CA or FL or AR zipcodes. We are a bubble within a larger bubble.
And finally, the number I probably pay the most attention to, and the number I think has the most effect on job creation, is the Central Oregon Housing Permits -- which were down 49% from 2008.
With both this statistic, and NOD's, it's important to point out that 2007 wasn't exactly the strongest year, either. So the "from peak" numbers would look much worse.
Well no ones denying any longer that we've had a couple of kicks to the chin, and we hit the ground with a concussion or two, and the 'recovery' will take time.
Meanwhile, my count of Downtown Openings and Closings is now 43 to 39. A little oasis amidst the carnage.
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Hate to be boring, ... but that's my job in this fucking town.
First of all resets don't fucking clear on 5/1 ARM mortgages until 2012, and then toss in the Bend lag of 18 months, ... So yes we're almost at the bottom, in about four years.
But in BULL time that could be today.
What the hell this is Bend we're exceptional and four years from tomorrow could easily be called 'today'.
A better scenario is complete economic meltdown this spring, and mass economic refugees come to Bend to escape the Carnage and hell in South-Calif, ...
So maybe Bend is rescued because of mass exodus and mass refugees come here with what? and they fill our empty houses? Ok, the Federal government provides money, win-win for all, ...
But honestly Bend is still Bend, we're fucking no where, and when shit is bad, who can afford to live in no-where with no help of a job, ... what-the-fuck? The argument that we're cheap can be given to death-valley, and they're way closer to LA.
So its 50-50, a few rich people come up to our gated community, or we weather the storm and tomorrow same as today for another five years. My bet is the latter, that tomorrows next five-years will be the same as today, .e.g. for the next fives years we'll be hearing the BULL say we're at the bottom.
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