Tuesday, February 13, 2007

We are entering into the slowest four week span of the year: without fail, the middle of Feb. to the middle of March is deadly slow. I've had the occasional busy Jan. and Sept. and Oct. and Nov.; I've had very busy April and Mays. But, never, ever, has this period been good.

So, time to cut back on orders, right?

When I first bought the store, I did the obvious and rational thing and stocked up during summer and Christmas, and cut back on the slow months. There were huge troughs back then, and high peaks; my best month could be as much as twice as good as my slowest month. Part of that was industry induced: the publishers would put of the biggest projects in flush times; baseball cards would lead into summer, toys would arrive in fall for Christmas. The late winter was a dead zone.

But after awhile I began to realize that I was wrong. Thing is, during the peak seasons, lots of different kinds of things sell. Part of it is tourism; after all, to new customers everything in my store is new and fresh. Part of it, is that people seem to be much more willing to buy the alternative to what they came in for, or they exibit the willingness to impulse buy.

Whereas during the slow season, they tend to want that one item they want, and if you don't have it, they don't buy anything.

So in fact, as counter-intuitive as if may seem, the time to build and maintain inventory is during the slow months; the time to draw down inventory is during the peak seasons.

Lets say you go for a buffet dinner. If all anyone eats is steak, and no one ever eats the meat loaf or turkey, if no one ever fills up on bread and salads, it would be pretty hard for a restaurant to make money.

If all I ever sold was the top sellers, it would mean that the rest of my product would just spoil and rot. But there is just enough variation in taste, especially in busy times, that everything will sell eventually. During the slow times, you sell alot more steak, and less meat loaf.

So, over the years, I switched that around. I take advantage of all the sales that are offered during the slow season, I build and maintain my inventory. The peaks and valleys have flattened out much more, as well. Now my low is usually only about 30% lower than my high.

Obviously, that really impacts on the cash-flow. I need to have money in the bank to cover those weeks when I may get more in the door than I sell. If I draw down on my savings, I have to be very, very disciplined and build up the cash reserve during the busy season. So, if I order a bunch of stuff this month, it all has to be paid back during the Spring Break period.

That's where I fall down. I rarely replace the revenue I use. I'm trying to change that this year. We'll see.

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