There are three really interesting articles in the Bulletin.

The first is about the flurry of condo's being built in downtown Bend.

Are there really a bunch of millionaires who want to live in downtown Bend? Turns out, the developers are banking on it. These projects don't "pencil out" without them.

Does anyone know if the condo's at the Firestation sold, or the condo's in the St. Clair building? I walk by them every night, and I never see any lights.

The more important question is: did they sell at full price to real customers?

Secondly, I have to wonder why the development of the lots on Brooks St. next to the Bend Brewery is taking so long? Is it really only waiting for permits, or is something else is going on?

I think its very telling that the developers of the site next to the Deschutes Brewery on Bond St. have changed their minds for the time being, and are focusing on a project in Redmond. (As I've said before, also reassuring in that they also own the building across from my store.)

All of the developers are hedging their bets by changing some of the floors to office space. But I'm also wondering if the retail space is going to fill quite as fast as the developers are thinking, at least at the rates they are going to want to charge? The Franklin Crossing has very little if any retail that I'm aware of, and they've been open for awhile. A Thai resturant has been announced. (The 2nd within a block of me.)

What's truly interesting to me, is that we have just begun to slow down. I mean, you would've had to make the decision a couple of years ago to go forward with what's coming on the market now. Stuff that's currently being built is going to come on the market in, what, six months? So the spaces available right now aren't selling, but we've got a huge influx coming in at a time when housing prices show every sign of slowing down? They've sold 12 of the 42 units in the Plaza? Now I'm going to make another assumption that there are incentives to buy early, so 27% just 4 months from completion isn't exactly a torrid pace.

At what point can the developers back down, and if they do, are we going to get stuck with vacant lots?

I was extremely skeptical when they announced that they had sold eight of the condo's in the Franklin Crossing, and sure enough it turns out that only three are actually firm. Now, my initial thought was that at least a few of the condo's were probably 'arrangements' of some kind, a sort of 'primer' sale to convince others to come aboard. I can think of several ways to do this; from the owner being technically separate but also owning the corporation that owns to building, to selling to family (and thus keeping it in family), to making deals with people who worked on the building in trade. Or trade of some other kind. Or even just sweethearts deals to prime the pump. We don't really know, but that's the way I would do it. So again, the guestion is; how many condo's sold at full price to real customers?

So it's possible that even the three units that have sold haven't really profited the Franklin Crossing. As a retailer, I can tell you that total sales are meaningless unless there is a profit. So telling you that sells have gone up, as the corporations are wont to do at Christmas, doesn't mean anything. You can, as they say, give away the store. Smoke and mirrors.

But the real estate agent was rah, rah. To quote in all it's wonderful breeziness:

"urbanization we are seeing here is so unique to a community of this size, I think we're just going to have to see some more inventory and we how it goes before we really know."

Yikes! I interpret that to mean, that a community this size usually wouldn't have this much building going on. Shouldn't that be a warning. right there? And just throwing more millions at it and seeing if it works? Never mind the displacement that's going on. Never mind that there were functioning businesses where there are empty lots now. I was in the Mt. View Mall when the empty spots starting showing up; it's a very dangerous game.

I love how she finishes the statement: "No guts, no glory." LOL!

"Our guts, their glory."

So my guestion is; if these projects don't pencil out without the condo's, and the condo's by their own admission aren't selling, why are they going forward?

The second article about the destination resorts really just points to the above argument. That is, what you see on the surface isn't always what is really going on. Turns out that the resort developers make money even if they lose money on the rental units. So the resorts are actually glorified subdivisions.

And the third article is another one about gentrification. I've always thought downtown Bend would be fine with about 1/4th boho businesses, 1/4 high end businesses, and 1/2 middle class businesses. Downtown is already losing the bohemian part; the Ponderfusions, the Gambit Games. They're the canary in the mine. If it starts to lose the middle class part, watch out.

All three article have in common the theme that big money gets what it wants, and if anyone gets in their way, too bad. There is also this underlying assumption that they know what they're doing -- they're rich aren't they? They must have knowledge or facts we aren't aware of. We just aren't smart enough to see it.

I've watched Marvel Comics go bankrupt, I've watched 3 out of 6 major card companies go belly up. I've watched the game industry shrink. I have absolutely no faith that just because somebody has more money than I do, that they know what they are doing...