The Law of the Sure Thing.

If everyone tells you its a sure thing, it ain't.

Ranks up there with, if a trend is profiled on the cover of Time Magazine as the latest thing, it's already over. Or, if your U.P.S. driver tells you to invest in something, get out a quickly as possible.

PS3 turned out not to be a sure thing, after all.

I've noticed a certain story arc in the media for every 'hot' thing.

There are the articles trumpeting the imminent arrival, and the eager anticipation of the fans.

The fans are waiting in line, sometimes for days.

Mad rush of opening hour, immediately followed by announcement of a sell-out.

Rumors that 'hot' item is selling for multiples on the internet.

Article on the guy who has quit his job in order rake in the dough with his garage full of 'hot' item. Followed by article of guy who has already made so much money, he's retired.

Books and articles written on "how to" get in on it.

People come into my store trying to sell it to me at over retail.

Then the downside. It starts with an article about a hijacking or a robbery, followed by 'hot item' being banned in schools or workplace. Kids have their collections stolen.

The early adopters getting out.

The company making the 'hot item' announces it has ramped up production.

Headline stories of people losing their shirts.

People come into my store trying to sell to me at ANY price.