Great example in today's Bulletin about what I was saying about asking sellers how they're doing.

Nationwide, car sales are way down. But not here in Central Oregon. No, sir-ee. Everything is great here! We're different. How do we know that? Because the local car dealers say so.

It may or may not be true. But I can tell you that asking the seller -- any seller, is useless at best, and misleading at worst.

When I was growing up, Mt. Bachelor would broadcast a weather report. If they said there were 'light' winds, you'd best bundle up. If they said there were 'strong' winds, you were in danger of being blown off the chair.

So you have to parse what they say. ANY admission of weakness means that there's something wrong.


I've been so focused on the store and my fiction writing (the floodgates have opened, and I'm working on 3 different projects!), that I haven't been paying much attention to the Bubble Blog 2, or the Bend Economy Board. Read a bunch of it last night.

Well, that was bracing! I'd almost forgotten what a terrible state we're in.

No, really. I do believe we have been undergoing a bubble, and I do believe that we are in danger of collapsing housing prices. Once that psychology changes to negative we're in for a long haul.

But here's the thing; you just can't put your life on hold because everything may go south tomorrow. The older I get, the more I realize that you can't keep putting stuff off forever.

So I'm torn. On one hand, I'm convinced that there is indeed a bubble popping. If nothing else, just the steepness of the graph tells me that something is wrong. And I've had long experience with bubbles and fads.

The following are some of the fads I've gone through, and the percent of business that existed when the fad hit bottom, and how much they have climbed back, if any.

Sports Cars; 3%; have clawed back to a big 5%.

Non-Sports: 1%

Magic; 5%; Has come back as much as 50%; and is currently about 35%, but trending back to base.

Pokemon; .05%

Pogs; 0%

Beanie Babies; 0%

D & D; 0% (because I dropped it.) Has climbed back to about 50% of the best we've done, but I've been focused on it. Remains to be seen what the solid base is.

Anime: 50%, but only because I've spent WAY too much money on it.

Manga: ditto.

Action Figures: 50%, but then I'm carrying probably 500% more inventory.

Books: new and used; never really a fad.

Comics: 50% . Have climbed back to 100% after 10 years, through price increases and new product design. (graphic novels). But only now have gotten back to peak numbers. Counting inflation, we still have a way's to go. Comics alone are still probably only 50% of peak in sales, and MUCH lower in numbers. And I have a much higher level of inventory. Still, it has proven to be a viable product line and kept us alive.

So the BEST we've ever managed to hold onto is 50%.

On the other hand, sales in the store have been going up steadily for about 6 years now, from the valley of the late 90's. Much of is due to my increasing inventory, but it's there, nevertheless.

To me, the housing bubble and the disastrous effect I think that it is going to have on Bend, is a moderating influence. But it doesn't keep me from trying to grow my business. I may regret someday that I didn't hunker down. (There is a nagging voice in the back of my brain that is saying, I will regret someday I didn't hunker down.) But I'm enjoying myself too much right now.

So......cautious optimism. I'm going to try to restrain my buying impulse over the next six months, however, and see where it all leads.