The plethora of real estate blogs in Bend is understandable. So is the usual "Things are looking up" tone. I don't begrudge them their slant; they're in an uncomfortable position of trying to earn a living in a historic downturn.
Still, sometimes they just go a little too far. There was an unfortunate example yesterday by the local blog, with the headline: "Home Prices Rising."
Which was a pretty unfortunate juxtaposition to the news from the national media:
"Bend had the largest year-to-year drop in housing prices among U.S. metro areas for the second consecutive quarter, according to data released Wednesday by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Between the second quarter of 2009 and the same period this year, housing prices depreciated 18.59 percent in the Bend Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of Deschutes County. That was the worst of all 303 MSAs the agency measured nationally."
Admittedly, the blog was referring to national prices -- but even there, it might have behooved the blog to mention the following national news:
"Sales of previously owned homes took a record plunge in July to their slowest pace in 15 years, underlining the housing market's struggle to find its footing without government aid." Reuters.
Sadly, I think this kind of misleading slant actually works, on a person to person basis. I get people in the store all the time that are thinking of buying a house in Bend. I don't try to talk them out of it -- but I do generally mention that they might try looking for a deal. But what's clear is that most of them AREN'T EVEN AWARE of Bend's 303 status in price depreciation.
Most of them seem to think we're just like everywhere else in the country, and when I use the phrase "Bubble within a bubble" they just nod their head and say, "Yeah, it's really bad where we come from, too."
My own brother-in-law bought into the market last year, after asking my advice. (I told him to wait, or to buy an actual house rather than a condo.) For my own sake I'm glad he did: I want my extended family to visit Bend as much as possible. But he wanted to buy and that's what he did.
Pretty amazing, considering these are some of the biggest investments that people make in their lifetimes. And it still comes down to "I want to live HERE and I want to live here NOW!"
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One thing to remember is not only will there be a correction to the bubble...there will certainly be an over-correction as well. It doesn't even look like the correction has run its course much less the usual over-correction that follows a bubble...
Bend has a long way to fall...
Dunc, you are right. The best deals are yet to come.
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