Monday, October 1, 2007

In the past, I have found the biggest danger to the overall health of my business, is the money I have committed but not yet spent.

There are all kinds of advantages to making bigger preorders, to buying in bulk.

1.) I usually get the best price.

2) I endear myself to my wholesalers, which often pays dividends when I need favors or help: I position my store in their minds as a 'player'.

3.) Sometimes I get a better mix within the bulk, with more flexibility. For instance, the ability to make sets of things. Or to vary pricing, based on quality.

4.) I more or less guarantee myself a supply even if the product runs short.

5.) I get it at the earliest possible shipping date. It is order once and forget about it until it arrives.

And so on.

But I am in such a small industry, that whatever commitments I make in advance I simply must follow through. Once in a while, I can try to beg off, or cut orders. But if I do that, any goodwill I've created disappears, and the wholesaler will be much less likely to extend me credit, or the benefit of the doubt, or make any special effort in my behalf, the next time. I can't just find another wholesaler in comics, for instance, because there really is only the one.

It's usually better to take the damage and try to do better the next time.

Twice I was almost done in, almost destroyed, by huge optimistic orders I made when sales were humming along, but which arrived after a total collapse in business. Both times, I had no choice but to accept the material. Both times I went deep into debt, and was unable to ever sell the excess product for a profit.

The window is shorter, these days. Which helps. But the problem is always lurking.

My usual reaction to doubt is to start cutting the preorders. I don't have to actually cut the amount of overall material much; I just order after it comes out, instead. When I order off the open market I can order what I want when I want. As long as I'm willing to take slightly lower profit margins, and accept sell-outs, and maybe receive the product a week later and so on.

But these are small and very manageable problems, pretty much, and I've found it well worth my while when things look to be tight. I was one of the first sports card dealers I know of that went strictly through a wholesaler instead of ordering in bulk from the publishers, for instance, and I'm one of the few survivors of my era.

It was how I handled the last three bubbles, and it served me very well. I may not have made quite as much money as I would've if I'd been ordering in bulk from the makers, but I escaped with very little damage on the downside.

A fair trade, I think.

The comic industry has changed enough that I am no longer hostage to new hot titles I can't get. I have tons of graphic novels collecting evergreen stories, and usually can get get reorders of monthlies if I need them. And if I can't, so be it. There is always the next week's comics and the next.

I have access to so many toys and cards and games and books and so on, that making large preorders isn't necessary.

So I've decided -- starting this month for November/December preorders -- to cut down to the minimum I can get away with, while keeping my reorders at high levels. If business slows, I can easily adjust the reorders.

Because...well, it just is looking weak out there to me. Has slowed just a little at the cash register, not enough to panic, but enough to concern me.

But, it just seems really clear to me that no one in retail is going to escape the consequences of the bubble bursting.

No one.

2 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Twice I was almost done in, almost destroyed, by huge optimistic orders I made when sales were humming along, but which arrived after a total collapse in business. Both times, I had no choice but to accept the material. Both times I went deep into debt, and was unable to ever sell the excess product for a profit.

You should start consulting to local home builders.

Duncan McGeary said...

That's what I doing....free consultation, if they will but listen.

These are generational bubbles, so they won't learn until it's too late.

My bubbles are fads, which come along every few years and which I survived, so I can apply the lessons.

But really, if you where building multi-million dollar developments would you listen to a guy who was nattering about pogs and beanie babies?