“I am unable to understand how a man of honor could take a newspaper in his hands without a shudder of disgust.” - BAUDELAIRE
“If one wishes to know the real power of the press, one should pay attention, not to what it says, but to the way in which it is listened to. There are times when its very heat is a symptom of weakness and prophesies its end. Its clamors and its fears often speak in the same voice. It only cries so loud because its audience is becoming deaf.” - TOCQUEVILLE
“My business is to teach my aspirations to confirm themselves to fact, not to try and make facts harmonize with my aspirations.” - T. H. HUXLEY
From The Viking Book of Aphorisms, by W. H. Auden and Louis Kronenberger, Viking Press, 1962.
October 19th, 2007 | by Chris Butcher, blog comics212
10 comments:
At this late point in the game, now that its official record that city money is being used on a wide scale of over a million dollars a year to wine&dine news editors it should be no surprise to any of us that this is the reason the city-newspaper of Bend can find no problem under their own nose.
Corruption in America is widespread, no good deed goes unpunished, and no bad deed goes punished. From the national level to local all law enforcement is selective.
The Internet as we know it will not last for long, the Print Media is dead, and it killed itself. The Internet is alive and well.
"Tell the Truth and Run" - Seldez
Duncan, the other bloggers seem to say 'bend is going to hell, I'm a renter, I'm leaving'. I think we're in it here for the long haul. What do you think the problem is, and then we can discuss solutions.
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People move to Bend for lifestyle, and get poverty with a view. Always been this way. Some say the view is gone. The road to poverty, the road to Bend has always been the same.
Like the current city tombstone on DVA/VCB tourism, it says that folks that want to live in Bend, should consider starting their own business. Yeh, more bead shops that's what we need in Bend.
There is no simple solution to the problem. The problem has not been defined. The current people running the town thought they could/would all get rich by attracting infinite dumb rich people. Well they're not coming the city will soon be broke.
Before we can have a solution, we all have to agree on what we want.
All along I have been assuming the 1983 model, quiet town, boarded up downtown, not much going on. Just live.
Once things get boring, most will leave. Just like the gal that started the Bend Film Festival left. It didn't take her long to figure that this town was going no where. Now we just have to educate the other 60k hustlers, thats its not going anywhere.
Bend is Mayberry, nothing less, nothing more. Mayberry on the edge of the Great Basin Desert. Far, faraway from any transportation, and $10/gal fuel looking at us in the face.
WHAT THE FUCK IS BEND???
REHO's say we got condo's to sell.
Bend is a tourist town.
No Bend is a jock-town ( Outside Magazine, city pays editors to print positive story's. )
No Bend is a retirement town.
No Bend is a high tech incubator.
No Bend is a community of talented, artistic, creative people.
WHAT IN THE FUCK IS BEND???
They try everything, everyday taxpayer money is spent, and shit thrown on the wall, and nothing ever sticks.
WHAT THE FUCK IS BEND???
I see it all as a big fractious mess.
Sure money protects money. But it's more like a bunch of fishing boats filling their nets, even though they've been told they'll wipe out the fisheries. Individual selfishness and short sightedness.
Game theory.
Everything was facilitated and given the green light out of fear, and then...it became a bubble.
I've said before, bubbles have their own psychology and no ones in charge.
The best you can do is see it for what it is.
Meanwhile, Yeah, I'm a life long resident. I sort of just ignore all the subdivisions and restaurants and everything and look to the horizon, the mountains the crisp air, the dry desert, the main streets. I'd be driving down HWY 20 and Greenwood every day, in any case.
And I'm a beneficiary so far downtown of the extra people.
I also don't quite see the disaster you're predicting.
People muddle through.
I also don't quite see the disaster you're predicting.
People muddle through.
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I'm not predicting a disaster. All along I have predicted the return of 1983, the best of times.
I think IHTBYB and the other 20+ renters who started blogging as way of knowing when to buy, but now realize there will be no jobs.
Sure even in 1983 if you worked hard, you could get by in Bend.
I think that most people don't want to work hard, that is why bubbles are so attractive.
The question is 'What is Bend"? You seem to be saying, that nothing matters, but you know it does matter. You know that if things drop 90% it will effect your daily drive to work. Note I said 'if', there will be an over-correction once the majority know that the easy-money is over. Once the majority that moved here in the last ten years to 'get rich quick', once they know its futile, they'll be bailing, and there will be a recession
You do agree the bubble is over?
I know things will take care of themselves, that nobody is in charge.
"story's"? A good editor would have caught that, Bilbo.
I also don't quite see the disaster you're predicting.
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All along I have predicted at least -50% on RE, and generally for +$400k, we're already their, if you can sell, if you have no equity you cannot sell.
The slowdown in downtown has already taken place.
To me I don't think it will get any worse than 1983, and for me those were the best of times.
90% of the bloggers weren't even here ten years ago, for them the sky will fall.
I never said any of this was a 'disaster'.
I simply feel that the past 5+ years Bend has thrown the budget and growth to the wind. Its time for rational planning. I think the first step is a discussion of what we are, there are so many attempts to build Bend into a great city with taxpayer money. Obviously we're in terrible debt and they want to grow us out, to pay for the debt.
The growth is over for a while, no matter how much city money is spent on PR&MARKETING.
Oh, yeah. The bubble is way over. I think it's going to get tough for a lot of people. But much of it will be under the surface. Quiet Desperation.
A large percentage of the population work in government, heath care, jobs that aren't going anywhere.
There are lots of people who have affordable mortgages. I pick the date as anyone before April, 2004, who bought on a fixed 30 year mortgage and put a minimum of 10% and didn't buy too much house. (Because that's what Linda and I did. Got my Property tax estimate, and our house was valued at DOUBLE what we paid.
I watched prices take off almost the same month we moved in.
Others will get help from family and friends, or figure out ways to muddle through.
Bend will eat up a whole bunch of equity, and once it's gone people will have to chose a normal Bend lifestyle -- poverty with a view -- or move out.
I don't see 1984, really. Maybe 1988 or so: liveable, but just barely.
But we're arguing over the size of the hurricane -- category 3? 4? 5? Doesn't matter much to the guys whose house blew down.
I don't see 1984, really. Maybe 1988 or so: liveable, but just barely.
But we're arguing over the size of the hurricane -- category 3? 4? 5? Doesn't matter much to the guys whose house blew down.
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My point is that none of this is a disaster, if you survived the hurricane of 1988, or 1983, yes we just live, and those that aren't willing to live simply will move on.
I'm NOT sure about government jobs, too many new buildings, and all built in last few years assuming 2005 growth forever to pay for it.
There has to be down-sizing in government, of course those with connections will be fine.
Too many of the people who came here post 2002 believed all the myths that Bend RE only goes up forever @ 30%/yr. Once its common knowledge that Bend is in a long term recession, they'll leave.
In the meantime the city keeps spending a ton of money to bring in new suckers.
I make up odds, that change over time.
At this point, I think there is a 10% chance that we'll breeze thought the whole thing, that some other asset bubble will pop up. Weirder things have happened.
I think there is a 10% chance that the downturn will be short and not devastating. That the national economy will pull us up; that Bend will retain it's appeal.
This is obviously what most of the real estate people are hoping.
I think there is a 50% chance of a major downturn, but one that won't leave empty storefronts and abandoned subdivisions. Painful, and alarming, and will last 4 or 5 years.
I think there is a 20% chance that it will be a complete disaster.
So 20% on the upside, 80% on the downside.
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