Lots of little things going on. Little drops in attendance at the public schools. Drops in airport boardings. Drops in pending housing sales. You know, little 3.5% drops here, little 4% drops there.
Except that we have been geared for growth for years. Not flat, not drops, increases.
So, a couple a down years in a school district and suddenly you're talking a 9% drop. Which is pretty significant. A 10% drop in Bend lodging? Looks like 50k disappears.
And on it goes.
What's revealing is that even these little drops are bigger than anything we've seen in a decade. A decade of growth -- vs. little drops. A double whammy.
My own store was down 10% last month, but that followed a drop last year too. So not happy about that. It gave me time to adjust, and I'm still ahead of a very profitable year last year in profits. But I'd feel better if sales were strong, too.
I think Bend needs to get off it's Growth Kick, and adjust to reality.
I find one of the hardest things to do in my business is change my focus from growth to maintenance, or from maintenance to growth. It's like an ingrained habit way of thinking. If you're going -- grow, grow, grow, it's extremely difficult to say to yourself, wait a minute, maybe it's time to maintain.
I do believe that Bend is having that problem right now.
A couple of letters and guest columns in the Bulletin today. One about the Bend Parking Garage being cheap at 45.00 a month. I don't disagree, except to point out that to a 20 hour a week, minimum wage employee, even 45.00 represents 10% of their take home pay. I'll always advocate free and or even cheaper parking SOMEWHERE within a decent distance from downtown for those that need it.
Also a very interesting analysis of the ridership on BAT. I've always thought the BAT was a worthy idea whose time hadn't come. It would be even more interesting to see what the per passenger cost is -- I've always maintained that we could give out taxi chits, and support local business for cheaper.
Getting an art gallery a couple of store down from us in our building. Downtown Bend continues to attract high-end businesses, which I guess is better than not attracting business at all. I'm conflicted about it. Of course, I wish him every success. (He's going to be my neighbor, after all.)
Seriously, now that I've added new books to my store, I'm benefiting from the types of customers these other businesses are attracting. That was my problem, and I needed to come up with a solution. So...bring them on.
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Where you hear about school enrollment drops? My kids in High Lakes, Cascade, and Summit are crammed to the gills. More this year than ever. Added portables.
Is it on the east side?
It blows my mind that neither you or Paul-do read the Bulletin.
Front Page, first article, Bulletin; Sept.9, 2008.
Schools in Region See Fewer Students, Less Funds.
With even fewer students than expected this year, Crook County School District may face further budget cuts.
And the school district, which has lost 61 students since last year, isn't alone.
After one week of school in Central Oregon, several area school districts' enrollments have dropped are are below projections after years of steep growth around the region. Some, like Sisters School District, have seen as much as a 5% drop in the number of students enrolling in their schools, while others, like Bend-LaPine Schools, simply aren't seeing the growth they expected."
I don't have an online account with them, so someone else will have to post the whole article.
I read it and other papers, but not in the morning.
I grabbed the paper. Bend still grew. Final numbers not in, but looking like less than the growth that was expected.
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