An experiment in capitalism.

This is going to be an interesting experiment. How many and for how long are customers going to stay away? How long can the average small business survive? How will the suppliers and landlords handle it?

If this had happened 20 years ago, it could have been the final nail in the coffin. I would reach the corner of Bond and Minnesota Ave. everyday and  have the same exact thought: "Anything happens today and we're done."

But we kept dodging disaster month after month until the thought stopped coming. Over the last twenty years we managed to get rid of most of our debt, build and diversify the store's inventory, and we've seen a resurgence in foot-traffic downtown.

But there is something people should understand. Few businesses have large margins for error--basically, because competition pushes us to the very edge of profitability. (Too profitable? Someone will soon be along to take a slice...)

It's tricky to start cutting back on orders before you see a significant decline--though that is the time to do it. When the decline starts, it's too late. You're going to eat inventory for as long as it takes to adjust.

We can afford to take the risk nowadays, so we're going along as normal. But I know a lot of businesses are going to shocked by what happens if they've never been through a Black Swan Event. My first twenty years were full of these out-of-the-blue disasters, mostly because we were too dependent on timely material and--to an uncomfortable extent--fads.

Fads don't happen the same way anymore, and we are much less susceptible to the problem of products that have a short shelf life. We have considerably more resources.  But obviously we aren't completely immune. It still hurts to lose money. I was well on the way to this being the first year in our history where I ordered everything I wanted for the store and still didn't go into debt--in fact, I was hoping to eliminate the last chunk of debt from years past.

We'll handle it. But I'll be curious to see how others handle it.