It's sad to see people chewed up and spit out by corporate America. I'm talking about the employees, here. The underlings.
There but for the grace of god go I.
I saw it happen to Linda, working as assistant manager at Regal Cinemas. She had health insurance, -- which we ended up needing -- but it was a horrible job, in many ways. She has a certain nostalgia for it, but I was there, man, and it was a meat grinder. (Same with her short stint at Barnes and Noble, which turned out to be about anything but books.)
I remember going to the movies the week after she finally quit, and meeting some of her co-workers, and turning to Linda and saying, "Do you see that look of panicked stress in their eyes? That was you a week ago."
She landed in her own bookstore, and is the mistress of her domain, and happy at it. And all those managers from Barnes and Noble and Regal, who in my opinion treated her unfairly, can go suck eggs. (That may be a bit mean-spirited, because at the local level they are all victims of the meatgrinder.)
Yes, owning your own business can be stressful, but at least you are charge of your own decision making. Yes, you can fail, but so can you lose a job. I read once that the worst kind of stress is having all the responsibility but none of the power to make changes. When you own your own business, you have both the responsibility AND the ability to make changes; stressful, but it has a different flavor to it.
What brought this up is reading another blog, (Rocket Bomber) written by a guy who works in a national book chainstore. He seems terribly put upon. He fantasizes about opening his own bookstore, but the fantasy is so over-the-top that it will never happen. I suggested once that he open a more modest endeavor and he slapped me down. (Admittedly, he had asked for no comments, so I probably deserved it. Still....kind of lost a lot of sympathy for him.)
It's strange to see someone keep their corporate meat grinder job year after year, and hear how he rationalizes it, and wishing he'd just take the chance and put that kind of effort into his own business.
I probably should be careful about advising that, though. It does seem like an awful lot of these 'dream' businesses fail. But I know what I would do.
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Friday, December 30, 2011
Selling what no one wants.
I say it every season. I'm happy when Christmas (and summer) get here, and happy when it goes.
I like the money. I like the activity. But all the frenetic flow and people wear me out.
I'll be content to hibernate for a couple of months.
Everything in a cycle, in waves....that's the way life should be.
**********
I'm going to dive into writing next week, and try to push thru to the finish. I might -- if I need to -- go on a short writing trip to kickstart the process.
I'm seeing how I've maybe set myself up for a reaction that I'm not quite prepared for. When I wrote my first books, it was more or less an impersonal process. I never met my agent or editors or the vast majority of my readers.
I'm going to be a little more vulnerable to opinions with this process. What I'm not going to do is put anyone on the spot and ask.
**********
I was talking about the lucky streak of warm shopping days had come to an end. Ironically, it may have helped business. I had several groups of customers mention that they had decided to skip skiing after a soggy day on the mountain.
The worst scenario for a tourist -- coming because there is good snow, and being met by bad snow -- is the best scenario for shopping.
Sorry bout that.
**********
Stupid wolf. Going to California. Sheesh.
**********
Another brewery in town.
Maybe I should get in on the action. I don't know nuttin about beer, but I figure I'll just hire a bunch of home brewers, put a cute name on it, some artsy packaging, and sell it really really cheap.
Speaking of which -- I saw so many Powell's Candy bags this Christmas, that I'm convinced it must be the busiest store in Bend.
I KNEW I should have gone into a different business -- beer, candy, drugs...something sinful.
Because selling reading material is just stupid.
I like the money. I like the activity. But all the frenetic flow and people wear me out.
I'll be content to hibernate for a couple of months.
Everything in a cycle, in waves....that's the way life should be.
**********
I'm going to dive into writing next week, and try to push thru to the finish. I might -- if I need to -- go on a short writing trip to kickstart the process.
I'm seeing how I've maybe set myself up for a reaction that I'm not quite prepared for. When I wrote my first books, it was more or less an impersonal process. I never met my agent or editors or the vast majority of my readers.
I'm going to be a little more vulnerable to opinions with this process. What I'm not going to do is put anyone on the spot and ask.
**********
I was talking about the lucky streak of warm shopping days had come to an end. Ironically, it may have helped business. I had several groups of customers mention that they had decided to skip skiing after a soggy day on the mountain.
The worst scenario for a tourist -- coming because there is good snow, and being met by bad snow -- is the best scenario for shopping.
Sorry bout that.
**********
Stupid wolf. Going to California. Sheesh.
**********
Another brewery in town.
Maybe I should get in on the action. I don't know nuttin about beer, but I figure I'll just hire a bunch of home brewers, put a cute name on it, some artsy packaging, and sell it really really cheap.
Speaking of which -- I saw so many Powell's Candy bags this Christmas, that I'm convinced it must be the busiest store in Bend.
I KNEW I should have gone into a different business -- beer, candy, drugs...something sinful.
Because selling reading material is just stupid.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
It's time to get started on my 2011 projects.
It's time to get started on my 2011 projects.
Which one to do first?
Write a book?
Lose 20 pounds?
Start an exercise program?
Cut down on my T.V. viewing?
Ah....I think I'll mull it over for a day or two and then decide.
Yes, sir. 2011 is when I'm really going to get things done.....
Which one to do first?
Write a book?
Lose 20 pounds?
Start an exercise program?
Cut down on my T.V. viewing?
Ah....I think I'll mull it over for a day or two and then decide.
Yes, sir. 2011 is when I'm really going to get things done.....
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Wed. wats.
Much as I appreciate the rain (I was thinking about resorting to breaking out the watering hoses for my garden, cause I was afraid my plants were being freeze dried) I'm sure it will put a damper on sales for the rest of the week.
It's kind of the end of our lucky streak. The weather was so uniform this shopping season that I think it helped. There wasn't the usual one or two inexplicable clunker days.
************
I'm proud of myself for figuring out the Hamlet connection to Sons of Anarchy all by my lonesome.
Linda and I have blown through 10 episodes. (They are relatively short, at about 39 minutes.)
For those of you who are way ahead of us on what's happened, please don't tell. For those of you who haven't started watching, there be spoilers ahead.
In the show, Jax (Hamlet) spends much of his time in the ramparts (the roof of the garage) communing the dead ghost of his dad (in the form of diaries.)
The one thing that bothers me about the show, is sometimes they seem to try a little too hard for the swaggering tough guy effect -- which can have the opposite effect of reminding me that they are all just actors, after all.
I think it's partly because of the shortness of the show, that things that can be a little more developed on HBO or Showtime, with an extra 10 or 15 minutes, in this show seem to be slightly telegraphed.
It's a problem with all tough guys shows, really. I remember seeing French Connection last year, and what had seemed so gritty and real when I was young seemed slightly fake and almost cartoony.
The actor's are mostly pulling it off -- so I'm not sure if the problem is the writing or the actors or just that they are talking about a foreign world and trying to show the "hearts of gold" and all that and it somehow doesn't quite seem -- realistic.
It walks a very narrow line, and pulls it off -- mostly.
**********
So far, we haven't had a single return. (knock wood). They may still all come in like an avalanche, but so far so good.
I'm very casual about telling the customers that if it isn't the right thing, they can exchange it for anything in the store.
We try not to give cash back -- but sometimes you just can't avoid it. But it sure hurts when it happens.
Exchanges? Those only make sense.
**********
I did my December orders yesterday, and allowed myself to order all the "cool" stuff I saw -- and it came in about 25% higher than is healthy.
Is the store strong enough to take the chance? If I order 25% more, can I sell about 15% more to cover it?
This kind of thing almost never pans out, but occasionally -- it does. And it's how the store takes a step forward. It's that risky move that you can usually avoid taking -- but not always.
I'll add up the Christmas profits, see how far down I'm paying on the debts, and make my decision by Thursday. I more or less already made the big gamble this Christmas -- so I need to see how that panned out by paying all the bills and seeing what's left.
**********
That the Parks and Rec district has millions to spend on land points to the off-kilter nature of public funding. I'm sure there are firewalls protecting the money from raids by other entities who might need to money more...in the short term.
In the long term, I think they are being smart snapping up the land while they can.
As you know, my belief is that Central Oregon is fundamentally a tourist and retirement economy and will mostly remain so.
It makes sense to have as many park amenities as possible.
It's kind of the end of our lucky streak. The weather was so uniform this shopping season that I think it helped. There wasn't the usual one or two inexplicable clunker days.
************
I'm proud of myself for figuring out the Hamlet connection to Sons of Anarchy all by my lonesome.
Linda and I have blown through 10 episodes. (They are relatively short, at about 39 minutes.)
For those of you who are way ahead of us on what's happened, please don't tell. For those of you who haven't started watching, there be spoilers ahead.
In the show, Jax (Hamlet) spends much of his time in the ramparts (the roof of the garage) communing the dead ghost of his dad (in the form of diaries.)
The one thing that bothers me about the show, is sometimes they seem to try a little too hard for the swaggering tough guy effect -- which can have the opposite effect of reminding me that they are all just actors, after all.
I think it's partly because of the shortness of the show, that things that can be a little more developed on HBO or Showtime, with an extra 10 or 15 minutes, in this show seem to be slightly telegraphed.
It's a problem with all tough guys shows, really. I remember seeing French Connection last year, and what had seemed so gritty and real when I was young seemed slightly fake and almost cartoony.
The actor's are mostly pulling it off -- so I'm not sure if the problem is the writing or the actors or just that they are talking about a foreign world and trying to show the "hearts of gold" and all that and it somehow doesn't quite seem -- realistic.
It walks a very narrow line, and pulls it off -- mostly.
**********
So far, we haven't had a single return. (knock wood). They may still all come in like an avalanche, but so far so good.
I'm very casual about telling the customers that if it isn't the right thing, they can exchange it for anything in the store.
We try not to give cash back -- but sometimes you just can't avoid it. But it sure hurts when it happens.
Exchanges? Those only make sense.
**********
I did my December orders yesterday, and allowed myself to order all the "cool" stuff I saw -- and it came in about 25% higher than is healthy.
Is the store strong enough to take the chance? If I order 25% more, can I sell about 15% more to cover it?
This kind of thing almost never pans out, but occasionally -- it does. And it's how the store takes a step forward. It's that risky move that you can usually avoid taking -- but not always.
I'll add up the Christmas profits, see how far down I'm paying on the debts, and make my decision by Thursday. I more or less already made the big gamble this Christmas -- so I need to see how that panned out by paying all the bills and seeing what's left.
**********
That the Parks and Rec district has millions to spend on land points to the off-kilter nature of public funding. I'm sure there are firewalls protecting the money from raids by other entities who might need to money more...in the short term.
In the long term, I think they are being smart snapping up the land while they can.
As you know, my belief is that Central Oregon is fundamentally a tourist and retirement economy and will mostly remain so.
It makes sense to have as many park amenities as possible.
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
A "wide range of merchandise" ?
Golden Apple comics is for sale in Los Angeles, if you got a spare $679,000.00 laying around.
The founder of this "iconic" store died a few years ago, and my sense is that it's been more or less going downhill ever since.
What caught my notice was this description: "The Golden Apple was a forward-facing store with a wide range of merchandise..." (Interesting phrasing: "was" a "forward looking"....)
If you look at the actual merchandise, though, it's:
58.3% New comics.
31.7% Graphic Novels.
10% Everything Else.
I suspect that the vast majority of those 90% comics and graphic novels are superhero oriented.
Anyway, as comparison, I checked this December's totals for the same categories in my store:
21.1% New comics.
16.8% Graphic Novels.
62% Everything else. Yes, comics are about 38% or a little more than 1/3rd.
Now THAT'S a description of a store with a "Wide Range."
I think that's the description of a store that is more likely to survive over the long run.
That 38% of sales for comics and graphic novels doesn't represent an actual decline in sales of those two categories -- in fact, we will probably beat last year. I haven't slowed down my support of these two categories at all, indeed the diversity of product has allowed me to continue to buy what I need there, and to up my orders on new comics.
What it shows is that the other categories in the store have increased.
Boardgames are almost exactly equal to new comics this Christmas. Granted -- this is the high water mark for that category.
New books are almost exactly equal to graphic novels this Christmas. Again, a seasonal high water mark.
Sports cards and dvd's accounted for another 5%.
Toys accounted for 7.5%
Card Games accounted for 10%.
This 22.5% of sales is an even bigger argument for diversity -- it's probably what makes the rest of the store work.
Comics and graphic novels will probably come closer to 50% of the total in most months -- and that shows the strengths of my regular clientele. The strength of the other product shows the strength of the foot traffic of the downtown area and of the seasons.
Together, they make for a "diverse" store that has a chance of selling something.
The founder of this "iconic" store died a few years ago, and my sense is that it's been more or less going downhill ever since.
What caught my notice was this description: "The Golden Apple was a forward-facing store with a wide range of merchandise..." (Interesting phrasing: "was" a "forward looking"....)
If you look at the actual merchandise, though, it's:
58.3% New comics.
31.7% Graphic Novels.
10% Everything Else.
I suspect that the vast majority of those 90% comics and graphic novels are superhero oriented.
Anyway, as comparison, I checked this December's totals for the same categories in my store:
21.1% New comics.
16.8% Graphic Novels.
62% Everything else. Yes, comics are about 38% or a little more than 1/3rd.
Now THAT'S a description of a store with a "Wide Range."
I think that's the description of a store that is more likely to survive over the long run.
That 38% of sales for comics and graphic novels doesn't represent an actual decline in sales of those two categories -- in fact, we will probably beat last year. I haven't slowed down my support of these two categories at all, indeed the diversity of product has allowed me to continue to buy what I need there, and to up my orders on new comics.
What it shows is that the other categories in the store have increased.
Boardgames are almost exactly equal to new comics this Christmas. Granted -- this is the high water mark for that category.
New books are almost exactly equal to graphic novels this Christmas. Again, a seasonal high water mark.
Sports cards and dvd's accounted for another 5%.
Toys accounted for 7.5%
Card Games accounted for 10%.
This 22.5% of sales is an even bigger argument for diversity -- it's probably what makes the rest of the store work.
Comics and graphic novels will probably come closer to 50% of the total in most months -- and that shows the strengths of my regular clientele. The strength of the other product shows the strength of the foot traffic of the downtown area and of the seasons.
Together, they make for a "diverse" store that has a chance of selling something.
Monday, December 26, 2011
"Sons of Anarchy" Christmas.
Of all things, we watched the first four episodes of this motorcycle gang saga.
You know how we're identifying with the bad guys in these shows? Meth and arms dealers. Or serial killer Dexter, or Gangster Nucky. Kind of a weird development.
I wanted to watch this show for some time, and with reruns going on, this was a good time to dive in. We have several seasons to catch up on. I thought I might have a hard time getting Linda to watch, but Ron Perlman is one of her favorite actors (ever since Beauty and the Beast) , so that's how I got her to watch the first episode...
"You know," she says. "He's getting better looking as he gets older."
"He's still ugly."
"Well, sure.... but better looking than before."
**********
"Exit through the Gift Shop."
The documentary by (about?) street artist Banksy.
I have a strange reaction to these art documentaries. These people all seem like raging egotists and preening narcissists.
Banksy's anonymity actually makes him seem even more of an egoist, somehow.
Maybe that's what it takes to get noticed in the art world.
As far as the documentary is concerned, if you like mind games, this was a good one. I don't think I liked it much -- I would have preferred a straight documentary about street art, with many more examples.
And yet, it makes its point.
**********
"Angry Bear" blog has a cute column about how Unitarians "saved" Christmas. (And the Puritans literally "outlawed" it.)
heh.
You know how we're identifying with the bad guys in these shows? Meth and arms dealers. Or serial killer Dexter, or Gangster Nucky. Kind of a weird development.
I wanted to watch this show for some time, and with reruns going on, this was a good time to dive in. We have several seasons to catch up on. I thought I might have a hard time getting Linda to watch, but Ron Perlman is one of her favorite actors (ever since Beauty and the Beast) , so that's how I got her to watch the first episode...
"You know," she says. "He's getting better looking as he gets older."
"He's still ugly."
"Well, sure.... but better looking than before."
**********
"Exit through the Gift Shop."
The documentary by (about?) street artist Banksy.
I have a strange reaction to these art documentaries. These people all seem like raging egotists and preening narcissists.
Banksy's anonymity actually makes him seem even more of an egoist, somehow.
Maybe that's what it takes to get noticed in the art world.
As far as the documentary is concerned, if you like mind games, this was a good one. I don't think I liked it much -- I would have preferred a straight documentary about street art, with many more examples.
And yet, it makes its point.
**********
"Angry Bear" blog has a cute column about how Unitarians "saved" Christmas. (And the Puritans literally "outlawed" it.)
heh.
Sunday, December 25, 2011
The "Retro" store.
Somebody should just start a "Retro" store.
Boardgames, books, non-electric toys, vinyl records....abacus's....
Make a virtue out of necessity.
I would go heavy on the mechanical toys, the art design toys, the retro-futuristic toys.
Also wood toys and puzzles.
Heavy on the classics books and records. Have an old fashioned record player, where you played records all day.
Chess, cribbage, go, backgammon.
You would pretend you've never heard of computers. (Of course, you'd have to track down an old mechanical cash register.) Just look at people blankly when they mention anything electronic. Have fake gas light looking fixtures. Maybe a candle or two.
I'd sit at my counter all day with a old typewriter and try to write.
When someone pulls out a cell phone, you say, "What demonic device is that!" and act scared.
You'd have a steampunk clothes for the store uniform.
Probably be best if you tried it in Portland, but if you had money to burn.... Bend would be cool. No...not cool, unless I do it.
I would call it: "Luddites from Space." or "Forward to the Past!" or "Steampunk Cafe" or ....?
Later:
And comics! How could I have forgotten comics? And sports cards!
What you would do would be play up the old-fashioned handlebar mustache era of B.B. cards, while mostly selling new ones.
Play up the 30's Batman era, while mostly selling new ones.
This wouldn't be a junk store. Everything would be shiny and new.
In fact, just about everything I currently carry would fit -- except my DVD's.
Anything New that had an Old-fashioned feel would be fair game.
I'm pretty sure most people with this idea would limit themselves -- but I'd go in whole bunch of directions.
For instance, have a heavy brass and mahogany section with all the steampunk; another brightly shiny metal and heavy plastic for my retro-futuristic section; another plastic, day glow section for my 50's style section; a paisley tapestry and candles for my Hippie section; a faux stonework medieval/fantasy section, and so on.
Obviously, I'd need a very big store, lots of money, and hip employees who stayed around for awhile.
I've come up with probably dozens of ideas for stores over the last 32 years -- but all of them run up against a problem.
There be only one of me, and I have my hands full.
Boardgames, books, non-electric toys, vinyl records....abacus's....
Make a virtue out of necessity.
I would go heavy on the mechanical toys, the art design toys, the retro-futuristic toys.
Also wood toys and puzzles.
Heavy on the classics books and records. Have an old fashioned record player, where you played records all day.
Chess, cribbage, go, backgammon.
You would pretend you've never heard of computers. (Of course, you'd have to track down an old mechanical cash register.) Just look at people blankly when they mention anything electronic. Have fake gas light looking fixtures. Maybe a candle or two.
I'd sit at my counter all day with a old typewriter and try to write.
When someone pulls out a cell phone, you say, "What demonic device is that!" and act scared.
You'd have a steampunk clothes for the store uniform.
Probably be best if you tried it in Portland, but if you had money to burn.... Bend would be cool. No...not cool, unless I do it.
I would call it: "Luddites from Space." or "Forward to the Past!" or "Steampunk Cafe" or ....?
Later:
And comics! How could I have forgotten comics? And sports cards!
What you would do would be play up the old-fashioned handlebar mustache era of B.B. cards, while mostly selling new ones.
Play up the 30's Batman era, while mostly selling new ones.
This wouldn't be a junk store. Everything would be shiny and new.
In fact, just about everything I currently carry would fit -- except my DVD's.
Anything New that had an Old-fashioned feel would be fair game.
I'm pretty sure most people with this idea would limit themselves -- but I'd go in whole bunch of directions.
For instance, have a heavy brass and mahogany section with all the steampunk; another brightly shiny metal and heavy plastic for my retro-futuristic section; another plastic, day glow section for my 50's style section; a paisley tapestry and candles for my Hippie section; a faux stonework medieval/fantasy section, and so on.
Obviously, I'd need a very big store, lots of money, and hip employees who stayed around for awhile.
I've come up with probably dozens of ideas for stores over the last 32 years -- but all of them run up against a problem.
There be only one of me, and I have my hands full.
Christmas wishes.
Hey, I could just have a nice Christmasy blog today (Merry Christmas!) but I think I'll just do the normal meanderings, since no one else is....
**********
Nice inventory management, if I do say so myself.
I have 3 each left of Ticket to Ride, Ticket to Ride: Europe, Carcassonne, and Settlers of Catan.
The store feels almost untouched -- probably because I was receiving shipments every day of the week. We have matched last year in sales, with six days to go. We will beat last year overall. I won't be able to zero out my credit cards, but having six straight months of higher than last year sales is worth it.
**********
Common Table gets robbed.
I wonder if this falls under the rubric of "No Good Deed Goes Unpunished."
The very people, one would think, that the place is trying to help.
**********
I've got the remember that number: 1,459 licensed real estate agents in Deschutes County.
"Realtors Get Real." Bulletin, 12/25/11.
And then compare it to the total number of houses sold this year. It can't be good.
I suspect that a handful of agents are reaping the benefits of all the others' efforts.
**********
It seems to me that the steady progress toward a 4 year campus in Bend is a model that the city and county should be following on other projects.
Sure, it isn't fast enough. But I think it's going to happen, because it needs to happen. A second city out at Juniper Ridge? Doesn't need to happen, and probably won't. Juniper Ridge could have been a modest "industrial park" success, instead of a grandiose failure.
A four year campus is taking much too long -- but in the face of overwhelming problems, it still seems to be trending that way. And it's much more feasible, with a solid foundation, than throwing money at land and spending huge bucks on plans that never come to fruition.
I wish the city would just take care of business, one step at a time, instead of constantly overreaching.
I'd prefer they use the money they are using to fight the state over the Urban Growth Boundary, the money they spent on useless buses, the money they spent on plans for Juniper Ridge that will never happen, the money they are spending on having the best of all (read: most expensive) option for the water system; the constant drain of studies that just tell them what they want to think anyway; the money they have wasted getting the handicap ramps wrong; and on and on...
...and spend it on having a real Mirror Pond again. You know, small, achievable goals.
Nah.
**********
**********
Nice inventory management, if I do say so myself.
I have 3 each left of Ticket to Ride, Ticket to Ride: Europe, Carcassonne, and Settlers of Catan.
The store feels almost untouched -- probably because I was receiving shipments every day of the week. We have matched last year in sales, with six days to go. We will beat last year overall. I won't be able to zero out my credit cards, but having six straight months of higher than last year sales is worth it.
**********
Common Table gets robbed.
I wonder if this falls under the rubric of "No Good Deed Goes Unpunished."
The very people, one would think, that the place is trying to help.
**********
I've got the remember that number: 1,459 licensed real estate agents in Deschutes County.
"Realtors Get Real." Bulletin, 12/25/11.
And then compare it to the total number of houses sold this year. It can't be good.
I suspect that a handful of agents are reaping the benefits of all the others' efforts.
**********
It seems to me that the steady progress toward a 4 year campus in Bend is a model that the city and county should be following on other projects.
Sure, it isn't fast enough. But I think it's going to happen, because it needs to happen. A second city out at Juniper Ridge? Doesn't need to happen, and probably won't. Juniper Ridge could have been a modest "industrial park" success, instead of a grandiose failure.
A four year campus is taking much too long -- but in the face of overwhelming problems, it still seems to be trending that way. And it's much more feasible, with a solid foundation, than throwing money at land and spending huge bucks on plans that never come to fruition.
I wish the city would just take care of business, one step at a time, instead of constantly overreaching.
I'd prefer they use the money they are using to fight the state over the Urban Growth Boundary, the money they spent on useless buses, the money they spent on plans for Juniper Ridge that will never happen, the money they are spending on having the best of all (read: most expensive) option for the water system; the constant drain of studies that just tell them what they want to think anyway; the money they have wasted getting the handicap ramps wrong; and on and on...
...and spend it on having a real Mirror Pond again. You know, small, achievable goals.
Nah.
**********
Christmas Eve is a drug.
Every year the same thing happens.
About 5:00 Christmas Eve, a giant wave of lassitude sweeps over me. As if someone shot me up with endorphins.
I used to think it was delayed Christmas feelings. Strangely, in retail, it's hard to get into the Christmas feeling.
But I think it's more that the weight of worry has been lifted off my shoulders, at least for a while. I don't have to worry about having enough money in the bank to pay the bills. I can almost go into hibernation in January and February. What will be will be.
There is always a low grade worry when you own a business -- that you bought the right things in the right quantities; that people will come in the door; that they will be willing to pay the price you need.
The boundary between what a small retailer needs to survive and the price the customers are willing to pay is very very narrow.
So you are always walking a very thin line. And almost inevitably, during the normal course of a year, you'll be making mistakes. Little mistakes, mostly. Occasionally a big one.
You try to deal with it within cash flow, but sometimes you have to fall back on credit. So the credit debt starts to slowly accumulate.
And then, about twice a year -- the end of August and Christmas Eve -- you get enough of a boost in sales to not only pay the bills, but to pay down on the credit debt. You may not get it all the way to zero (I won't this year, because I decided I wanted a full store) but you take the edge off.
Then the low grade worry sets in, day after day, until the next Christmas Eve.
But right now, I'm just enjoying it and letting it wash over me.
Merry Christmas Everyone!
About 5:00 Christmas Eve, a giant wave of lassitude sweeps over me. As if someone shot me up with endorphins.
I used to think it was delayed Christmas feelings. Strangely, in retail, it's hard to get into the Christmas feeling.
But I think it's more that the weight of worry has been lifted off my shoulders, at least for a while. I don't have to worry about having enough money in the bank to pay the bills. I can almost go into hibernation in January and February. What will be will be.
There is always a low grade worry when you own a business -- that you bought the right things in the right quantities; that people will come in the door; that they will be willing to pay the price you need.
The boundary between what a small retailer needs to survive and the price the customers are willing to pay is very very narrow.
So you are always walking a very thin line. And almost inevitably, during the normal course of a year, you'll be making mistakes. Little mistakes, mostly. Occasionally a big one.
You try to deal with it within cash flow, but sometimes you have to fall back on credit. So the credit debt starts to slowly accumulate.
And then, about twice a year -- the end of August and Christmas Eve -- you get enough of a boost in sales to not only pay the bills, but to pay down on the credit debt. You may not get it all the way to zero (I won't this year, because I decided I wanted a full store) but you take the edge off.
Then the low grade worry sets in, day after day, until the next Christmas Eve.
But right now, I'm just enjoying it and letting it wash over me.
Merry Christmas Everyone!
Saturday, December 24, 2011
We're open all day.
We could close at 4:00 or so, but I kind of like wandering around the store, tidying things up, soaking up the atmosphere, relaxing.
So I send the kid home and stay open myself that last two hours.
I also mosey around and pick up presents for family, anything I've had my eye on that people didn't buy. Scoop up several calendars and books and maybe a toy or two.
**********
I'm sorry. I just couldn't get myself to play Christmas music.
I'd planned to do it the last two days before Christmas, but....I couldn't do it.
**********
I need to update my talking points about the store.
I keep saying "We've been here for 30 years!"
But-- as of next week -- we'll have been here 32 years. In a few months, I will have owned the store for 28 years.
I'd never have guessed it. I never thought it was going to be my career. I'm glad it was.
***********
I think maybe I overdosed on people a little this week. Toward the end of my shift, I was feeling a bit frazzled and was just giving back blank looks when people asked me questions.
Fortunately, I have a cheery, well-trained crew in place this year.
Yesterday was the biggest day of the year -- maybe of several years. And we are a stone's throw from beating last year with a week still to go.
***********
Had the regular customer who is the husband of another downtown business owner. I was telling him that sales were good, but I'd also spent so much that it would still be a challenge to stay in the black.
He just shook his head. "Why do you guys do that? I keep telling my wife, the money you make is the money you don't spend."
Which is undeniably true.
But I just don't think you can ever remove taking risk from small business, no matter how many years you are around. If you weren't the type to take risk, you'd probably never have opened a store in the first place. And if you quit taking risk, then you're dead in the water.
**********
The real reason for the big reboot of the DC titles. I wanted to order more Green Lantern #4, and I had to go through page after page after page of Green Lantern stuff....
I suppose I still do, but at least the comic ordering has been simplified.
**********
So I send the kid home and stay open myself that last two hours.
I also mosey around and pick up presents for family, anything I've had my eye on that people didn't buy. Scoop up several calendars and books and maybe a toy or two.
**********
I'm sorry. I just couldn't get myself to play Christmas music.
I'd planned to do it the last two days before Christmas, but....I couldn't do it.
**********
I need to update my talking points about the store.
I keep saying "We've been here for 30 years!"
But-- as of next week -- we'll have been here 32 years. In a few months, I will have owned the store for 28 years.
I'd never have guessed it. I never thought it was going to be my career. I'm glad it was.
***********
I think maybe I overdosed on people a little this week. Toward the end of my shift, I was feeling a bit frazzled and was just giving back blank looks when people asked me questions.
Fortunately, I have a cheery, well-trained crew in place this year.
Yesterday was the biggest day of the year -- maybe of several years. And we are a stone's throw from beating last year with a week still to go.
***********
Had the regular customer who is the husband of another downtown business owner. I was telling him that sales were good, but I'd also spent so much that it would still be a challenge to stay in the black.
He just shook his head. "Why do you guys do that? I keep telling my wife, the money you make is the money you don't spend."
Which is undeniably true.
But I just don't think you can ever remove taking risk from small business, no matter how many years you are around. If you weren't the type to take risk, you'd probably never have opened a store in the first place. And if you quit taking risk, then you're dead in the water.
**********
The real reason for the big reboot of the DC titles. I wanted to order more Green Lantern #4, and I had to go through page after page after page of Green Lantern stuff....
I suppose I still do, but at least the comic ordering has been simplified.
**********
Friday, December 23, 2011
Bank robbers...our new industry.
Bend has a new industry!
It requires no real skills and is very lucrative.
Apply at your local bank today!
It requires no real skills and is very lucrative.
Apply at your local bank today!
A Bookish Proclamation.
I've settled into the notion that books and comics aren't going away.
I don't doubt the digital. I just think they'll co-exist, and in the end, many, many people, young and old, poor or rich, will prefer to actually own and read a paper book.
There will be a shakeout. Taking 10% or 20% or 30% or 40% off the top is going to be brutal to a lot of marginal businesses who didn't diversify. It's going to hurt the non-marginal businesses who did diversify.
But in the end, the demand will still be there and therefore the storefronts who will fill that demand will still be there.
I plan to be one of them.
When you want to talk books, come and see me!
I don't doubt the digital. I just think they'll co-exist, and in the end, many, many people, young and old, poor or rich, will prefer to actually own and read a paper book.
There will be a shakeout. Taking 10% or 20% or 30% or 40% off the top is going to be brutal to a lot of marginal businesses who didn't diversify. It's going to hurt the non-marginal businesses who did diversify.
But in the end, the demand will still be there and therefore the storefronts who will fill that demand will still be there.
I plan to be one of them.
When you want to talk books, come and see me!
Christmas business update.
Two busy (too busy?) 9 hour days in a row and I'm near done in. At the same time, it's invigorating to have so much activity. As always this time of year, I fantasize about all the things I could do if we had this much business every month.
I mentioned that we were briefly -- briefly, I tell you! -- sold out of a couple of boardgames. But we are restocked -- almost completely stocked in everything. So it was a bit dismaying to have a couple of people comment on the brief -- brief, I tell you! -- shortage.
We have had shipments every day this week, to keep up. In fact, that has been the theme of this Christmas; to make sure that I order everything we need. I've been all in. I can already tell that I won't need to do as much restocking in January and February as I usually do.
I can tell that I have a whole lot of work ahead of me convincing locals that Pegasus is not some fanboy dungeon. I'm getting constant remarks that the store "Has so much more of what I like than I expected."
Well, I've really made the effort to have a nice selection of books -- for every reader. In fact, I think I filled quite a few wish lists of people who totally didn't expect me to be able to do it.
(At the same time, I had a huge number of specific requests that I doubt ANYONE could fill.)
When people ask how we're doing, I never know quite what to say. It's been the medium range Christmas. I always forecast a high, a low, and a middle.
Pegasus is almost certain to beat last year, though the first half of the month was slower than I would have liked. It's been a good week, so far. But -- not to sound ungrateful -- but such largesse is Expected. It is Factored in. It Needs to happen. So, yes, it's busy -- but it's absolutely supposed to be busy. ("Is there no satisfying the man!")
We still have shipments coming in today, and I'm pretty certain our stock level right now might even be higher than normal. It was a bit of experiment to do it this way. Usually I try to sell through and make more profit; (and then spend all Spring trying to gear up again) but I decided I'd rather keep the store strong all the way through the holidays. So I traded higher sales and higher inventory for a bit of profit, which I think is the right move in the long run.
Boardgames and new books are the stars of the season -- again. I'd been wondering if the Euro-style boardgames had become mainstream enough that we'd be undercut; but they are still a mystery to the majority of customers. I didn't do as much handselling this season as last year, but we'll sell about the same.
These days, I'm not so much congratulating myself on taking the step of bringing in new books and boardgames -- as trying to imagine how my store would be doing without them. I dreamed last night that some 'interior decorator' type person was complaining about the store displays, and I patiently explain that my store only does well if it is as packed as I can get it.
It will be interesting to see how the store does in the week after Christmas. This can actually be more revealing of popularity than the week before, because that's when we become more of a 'destination' than a downtown browsing experience.
(sorry about all the "I"s in this entry....I never know when talking about my business whether I should say 'I' or 'we' or 'Pegasus' or 'the store'. It's all about me, me, me. heh.)
I mentioned that we were briefly -- briefly, I tell you! -- sold out of a couple of boardgames. But we are restocked -- almost completely stocked in everything. So it was a bit dismaying to have a couple of people comment on the brief -- brief, I tell you! -- shortage.
We have had shipments every day this week, to keep up. In fact, that has been the theme of this Christmas; to make sure that I order everything we need. I've been all in. I can already tell that I won't need to do as much restocking in January and February as I usually do.
I can tell that I have a whole lot of work ahead of me convincing locals that Pegasus is not some fanboy dungeon. I'm getting constant remarks that the store "Has so much more of what I like than I expected."
Well, I've really made the effort to have a nice selection of books -- for every reader. In fact, I think I filled quite a few wish lists of people who totally didn't expect me to be able to do it.
(At the same time, I had a huge number of specific requests that I doubt ANYONE could fill.)
When people ask how we're doing, I never know quite what to say. It's been the medium range Christmas. I always forecast a high, a low, and a middle.
Pegasus is almost certain to beat last year, though the first half of the month was slower than I would have liked. It's been a good week, so far. But -- not to sound ungrateful -- but such largesse is Expected. It is Factored in. It Needs to happen. So, yes, it's busy -- but it's absolutely supposed to be busy. ("Is there no satisfying the man!")
We still have shipments coming in today, and I'm pretty certain our stock level right now might even be higher than normal. It was a bit of experiment to do it this way. Usually I try to sell through and make more profit; (and then spend all Spring trying to gear up again) but I decided I'd rather keep the store strong all the way through the holidays. So I traded higher sales and higher inventory for a bit of profit, which I think is the right move in the long run.
Boardgames and new books are the stars of the season -- again. I'd been wondering if the Euro-style boardgames had become mainstream enough that we'd be undercut; but they are still a mystery to the majority of customers. I didn't do as much handselling this season as last year, but we'll sell about the same.
These days, I'm not so much congratulating myself on taking the step of bringing in new books and boardgames -- as trying to imagine how my store would be doing without them. I dreamed last night that some 'interior decorator' type person was complaining about the store displays, and I patiently explain that my store only does well if it is as packed as I can get it.
It will be interesting to see how the store does in the week after Christmas. This can actually be more revealing of popularity than the week before, because that's when we become more of a 'destination' than a downtown browsing experience.
(sorry about all the "I"s in this entry....I never know when talking about my business whether I should say 'I' or 'we' or 'Pegasus' or 'the store'. It's all about me, me, me. heh.)
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Rushing to nowhere.
So I read the lead story in the Bulletin today twice, to see if I was missing something.
Because it seems to me that neither the headline or the lead paragraph are proven by the ensuing story.
"Tetherow Investors Race to Claim Single - Family Lots."
On first reading it, I assumed to this was referring to -- you know -- actually buyers of single-family lots. But no, they are referring to those entities -- of which there are several, who picked up swatches of land out there and who now want permission to build homes. Problem is, they don't want to build the resort units that are necessary to fill the letter of the law.
"....ownership if fractured after the crash of the real estate market...." "....instead of one developer, there are no multiple owners and each has its own financial interests."
Bad enough for the one developer having to build an unprofitable hotel --but at least that developer would have had the whole development to ameliorate the costs. Hard to see how a bunch of separate parties are going to pull that off.
Oh, wait. That "unprofitable hotel" which hasn't been built accounted for the first 398 lots. What they are talking about it developing another 117 lots with the vague promise of more tourist units. (More tourist units when the original still not only aren't being built, but have been orphaned.)
Time to prove it. Build the hotel before any more lots are approved. (Where's the state in all this? Why aren't they enforcing the land-use laws here?)
Oh, by the way. I don't believe "rush" is quite the right word. Go ahead, go out to Tetherow and tell me there is a rush to build anything. This many years later, it still looks pretty empty to me.
Because it seems to me that neither the headline or the lead paragraph are proven by the ensuing story.
"Tetherow Investors Race to Claim Single - Family Lots."
On first reading it, I assumed to this was referring to -- you know -- actually buyers of single-family lots. But no, they are referring to those entities -- of which there are several, who picked up swatches of land out there and who now want permission to build homes. Problem is, they don't want to build the resort units that are necessary to fill the letter of the law.
"....ownership if fractured after the crash of the real estate market...." "....instead of one developer, there are no multiple owners and each has its own financial interests."
Bad enough for the one developer having to build an unprofitable hotel --but at least that developer would have had the whole development to ameliorate the costs. Hard to see how a bunch of separate parties are going to pull that off.
Oh, wait. That "unprofitable hotel" which hasn't been built accounted for the first 398 lots. What they are talking about it developing another 117 lots with the vague promise of more tourist units. (More tourist units when the original still not only aren't being built, but have been orphaned.)
Time to prove it. Build the hotel before any more lots are approved. (Where's the state in all this? Why aren't they enforcing the land-use laws here?)
Oh, by the way. I don't believe "rush" is quite the right word. Go ahead, go out to Tetherow and tell me there is a rush to build anything. This many years later, it still looks pretty empty to me.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Downtown Abbey. err....downton.
There was a time when I was seriously addicted to Masterpiece Theater. "I, Claudius." (Which inspired me to read the books, which were equally good.) and the one about Edward VII's mistresses, and....especially.... "Upstairs, Downstairs."
Just started watching "Downton Abbey," and, by golly, it's just another version of "Upstairs, Downstairs" as far as I can see. It's like someone took the basic elements of one of your favorite show, but then didn't copy any of the details.
Enjoying it, in the good old-fashioned soap opera way.
**********
Saw Mission Impossible on Imax.
Wasn't what I expected. I suppose it was quite a bit 'clearer'; almost had a 3-D feel to it, but not as spectacular as I thought it would be.
The movie was great fun. I didn't even mind Tom Cruise, who is still looking about 35 years old somehow....
**********
I'm really enjoying that Netflix streaming has so many documentaries available. Started watching Senna, about the Formula One race car driver, and they have a scene where they show a crash, and the driver (not Senna) is in the middle of the roadway looking like a pretzel. Very disturbing image.
Most of me doesn't understand the appeal of race cars -- but there is a small part of me that does.
**********
Finished off the first season of Downton Abbey. We had 4 episodes left to watch, and we couldn't stop watching until they were done. Totally grabs you.
Mary is a really fascinating character. She drives me nuts.
**********
Much as I'd like for the Tintin movie to succeed, I just don't care for the motion-capture process they are using. It's fine for non-human aspects, but the "valley of the uncanny" thing still bothers me.
I read a review that said Tintin is only known by "weird europhiles" which was funny and actually kind of accurate.
But I can sell them on that basis, just as I can sell "eurostyle" boardgames.
Apparently, most stores have gone to the smaller sized multiple collections -- but I've stuck with the original oversized color albums, which is more traditional.
**********
I was bound and determined not to run out of boardgames, but as of 2:00 p.m. yesterday I had sold my last base Settlers of Catan and the last base Carcassonne. Argghhh.
I have more coming in today, and I ordered more to come in on Friday, so I'll only be out for a few hours, but I still can't believe how everyone waited until the last minute!
Just started watching "Downton Abbey," and, by golly, it's just another version of "Upstairs, Downstairs" as far as I can see. It's like someone took the basic elements of one of your favorite show, but then didn't copy any of the details.
Enjoying it, in the good old-fashioned soap opera way.
**********
Saw Mission Impossible on Imax.
Wasn't what I expected. I suppose it was quite a bit 'clearer'; almost had a 3-D feel to it, but not as spectacular as I thought it would be.
The movie was great fun. I didn't even mind Tom Cruise, who is still looking about 35 years old somehow....
**********
I'm really enjoying that Netflix streaming has so many documentaries available. Started watching Senna, about the Formula One race car driver, and they have a scene where they show a crash, and the driver (not Senna) is in the middle of the roadway looking like a pretzel. Very disturbing image.
Most of me doesn't understand the appeal of race cars -- but there is a small part of me that does.
**********
Finished off the first season of Downton Abbey. We had 4 episodes left to watch, and we couldn't stop watching until they were done. Totally grabs you.
Mary is a really fascinating character. She drives me nuts.
**********
Much as I'd like for the Tintin movie to succeed, I just don't care for the motion-capture process they are using. It's fine for non-human aspects, but the "valley of the uncanny" thing still bothers me.
I read a review that said Tintin is only known by "weird europhiles" which was funny and actually kind of accurate.
But I can sell them on that basis, just as I can sell "eurostyle" boardgames.
Apparently, most stores have gone to the smaller sized multiple collections -- but I've stuck with the original oversized color albums, which is more traditional.
**********
I was bound and determined not to run out of boardgames, but as of 2:00 p.m. yesterday I had sold my last base Settlers of Catan and the last base Carcassonne. Argghhh.
I have more coming in today, and I ordered more to come in on Friday, so I'll only be out for a few hours, but I still can't believe how everyone waited until the last minute!
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Dis and dat.
Does anyone actually believe the unemployment rate has dropped around here?
Or have people just left town or the job market or gone back to school or assembled a bunch of part time jobs or under-the-table jobs or flat out retired?
Has someone been hiring I haven't heard about?
**********
How could I have been so stupid to just order two each of the 10.00 windup Tardis and Daleks toys?
Which sold out in one day?
By the time I tried to order more, they were gone. Damn. Always clear in hindsight....
***********
"Ready when you are, C.B.!"
**********
Just saw a little bunny wabbit run across my lawn. First of those I've seen. Squirrels, damned deer, double damned rockchucks, yes, but no bunnies. (I have smelled but not seen skunk.)
Ahhhh.....it's just a little bunny rabbit......Urgh!
**********
My breathing has been clear the last couple weeks, which is remarkable because it usually isn't. I broke my nose skiing 40 years ago, so one nostril is partly blocked even now. But I could actually live off it today, if I had to stick a straw in it and breath from underwater while Aliens were searching for me -- when normally I'd suffocate -- or be implanted by Alien spawn -- if I had to rely on it.
So, something environmental is affecting my breathing. Something outside.
(I've avoided both of Linda's colds -- I think because I'm pretty healthy right now, sleeping and eating right and all that. Much less stress because my hours at the store are finally reasonable and the stores are doing O.K.)
Just feels weird to be able to breath, and not to be wheezing.
**********
Ranch Records advertises as a "Music, Movie, Poster" store.
Yep. Hybrid is the way to go, these days.
I've been adding to every section of my store, even the slow sections.
I can really feel the overall pull of having so many books, games, toys, cards....buttons, posters, t-shirts, calendars, dvd's -- pop-culture paraphernalia of all kinds -- is having on the browsers.
Sure, it's a bit overwhelming.
But it seems to work. At least work better than just doing one thing and hoping the person who walks in the door is interested in that one thing.
***********
Rumor is -- (and just yesterday, I said I didn't pass on rumors!) -- that something like 80% of downtown businesses feel that there are too many street-closures downtown.
So I'll just leave that number out there -- labeled a rumor -- and see if anyone wants to give me the real scoop.
Or have people just left town or the job market or gone back to school or assembled a bunch of part time jobs or under-the-table jobs or flat out retired?
Has someone been hiring I haven't heard about?
**********
How could I have been so stupid to just order two each of the 10.00 windup Tardis and Daleks toys?
Which sold out in one day?
By the time I tried to order more, they were gone. Damn. Always clear in hindsight....
***********
"Ready when you are, C.B.!"
**********
Just saw a little bunny wabbit run across my lawn. First of those I've seen. Squirrels, damned deer, double damned rockchucks, yes, but no bunnies. (I have smelled but not seen skunk.)
Ahhhh.....it's just a little bunny rabbit......Urgh!
**********
My breathing has been clear the last couple weeks, which is remarkable because it usually isn't. I broke my nose skiing 40 years ago, so one nostril is partly blocked even now. But I could actually live off it today, if I had to stick a straw in it and breath from underwater while Aliens were searching for me -- when normally I'd suffocate -- or be implanted by Alien spawn -- if I had to rely on it.
So, something environmental is affecting my breathing. Something outside.
(I've avoided both of Linda's colds -- I think because I'm pretty healthy right now, sleeping and eating right and all that. Much less stress because my hours at the store are finally reasonable and the stores are doing O.K.)
Just feels weird to be able to breath, and not to be wheezing.
**********
Ranch Records advertises as a "Music, Movie, Poster" store.
Yep. Hybrid is the way to go, these days.
I've been adding to every section of my store, even the slow sections.
I can really feel the overall pull of having so many books, games, toys, cards....buttons, posters, t-shirts, calendars, dvd's -- pop-culture paraphernalia of all kinds -- is having on the browsers.
Sure, it's a bit overwhelming.
But it seems to work. At least work better than just doing one thing and hoping the person who walks in the door is interested in that one thing.
***********
Rumor is -- (and just yesterday, I said I didn't pass on rumors!) -- that something like 80% of downtown businesses feel that there are too many street-closures downtown.
So I'll just leave that number out there -- labeled a rumor -- and see if anyone wants to give me the real scoop.
Monday, December 19, 2011
What'd we do?
Once again, the comments on Tilting at Windmills make my blood run cold.
Feel the love from the digital fans! (Excuse me while I slip quietly under the ice.)
I think retailers and digital proponents are talking past each other.
Pretty much the same with bookstores. I thought at one time that people maybe liked bookstore a bit more, but the recent column in Slate disabused me of that notion.
I think, somewhere at people's core, they really don't like retail of any kind. And if they have to do retail, they'd rather do it with some huge, faceless corporation.
Anyway, I've come up with some bullet points (for both comic shops and bookstores) that I think are true -- but like I said, I doubt the digital folks will agree:
*The market is small and not very strong. It won't take much to collapse it completely.
*The biggest casualties will be the very types of books the digital people say they want; small press, independents.
*Digital cannot totally replace physical. There isn't enough money in it.
*People won't start reading comics just because they have access to comics online. They have to want to read comics first.
*A lower price won't convert more people into readers, or cause current readers to buy enough more to replace lost revenue.
*Without a physical presence of hobby shops, the hobby will dwindle.
*There will be a blizzard of product with unconnected results. No one will know how anything is selling, or what has caught the attention of the general public, except the biggest, most common denominator books.
*There is sizable minority that can't afford to go digital.
*There is a sizable percentage who will always prefer physical books.
*Books and digital will probably co-exist for the foreseeable future.
*Revenues will fall for the publishers, who will eventually be mostly replaced by do-it-yourself.
*Small bookstores (comic-stores) can adjust better than large chains.
*Everyone will have to sell something else. Hybrid stores will be the rule.
*People like to shop. They won't quit shopping.
*There is room at the top, for the best. I don't have to be faster than the bear, just faster than the other prey.
*The market will evolve. Radio survived, albeit in a completely different format. T.V. is evolving toward cable quality shows.
Feel the love from the digital fans! (Excuse me while I slip quietly under the ice.)
I think retailers and digital proponents are talking past each other.
Pretty much the same with bookstores. I thought at one time that people maybe liked bookstore a bit more, but the recent column in Slate disabused me of that notion.
I think, somewhere at people's core, they really don't like retail of any kind. And if they have to do retail, they'd rather do it with some huge, faceless corporation.
Anyway, I've come up with some bullet points (for both comic shops and bookstores) that I think are true -- but like I said, I doubt the digital folks will agree:
*The market is small and not very strong. It won't take much to collapse it completely.
*The biggest casualties will be the very types of books the digital people say they want; small press, independents.
*Digital cannot totally replace physical. There isn't enough money in it.
*People won't start reading comics just because they have access to comics online. They have to want to read comics first.
*A lower price won't convert more people into readers, or cause current readers to buy enough more to replace lost revenue.
*Without a physical presence of hobby shops, the hobby will dwindle.
*There will be a blizzard of product with unconnected results. No one will know how anything is selling, or what has caught the attention of the general public, except the biggest, most common denominator books.
*There is sizable minority that can't afford to go digital.
*There is a sizable percentage who will always prefer physical books.
*Books and digital will probably co-exist for the foreseeable future.
*Revenues will fall for the publishers, who will eventually be mostly replaced by do-it-yourself.
*Small bookstores (comic-stores) can adjust better than large chains.
*Everyone will have to sell something else. Hybrid stores will be the rule.
*People like to shop. They won't quit shopping.
*There is room at the top, for the best. I don't have to be faster than the bear, just faster than the other prey.
*The market will evolve. Radio survived, albeit in a completely different format. T.V. is evolving toward cable quality shows.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Sunday suds.
I plowed through some of my backlog of New York Times newspapers.
Many hours later, my fingers were black and shiny, and I was soooooooo much more informed.....
**********
The article on the cluster of stores at Ninth and Wilson was interesting. I have no idea how this model of retail works. For me, the more foot traffic the better and I'm willing to pay for it. Saving a few bucks on rent just wouldn't make the difference.
The Bulletin mentions that they pay .40 a foot and downtown pays 1.50 a foot. Uh....try more like 2.00 a foot, (when triple net is included.)
Basically, the savings on rent would be worth about 20% of my sales. I'm pretty sure that my sales would drop by more than 20% by being in such an out of the way location.
Also, not being open 5 days a week?
**********
Much as I love writing this blog, I don't think of myself as a journalist.
On the other hand, I can see how a journalist might want to write a blog, and need to be protected by the 1st Amendment. Well, actually, I -- Do -- want to be protected by the 1st Amendment. Then again, I try to be truthful and honest in this blog. I try not to pass on scurrilous rumors. I try not to indulge in (too much) unfounded speculation. I try not to personally attack people. (And I try to enforce these rules on the comments as well...)
These are personal rules, arrived at by trial and error. I came to realize, for instance, that even if not a whole lot of people are reading this blog, that anyone can do a websearch of their name and what I say about them might pop up. I'm not interested in hurting people.
The Bulletin's editorial, and the article inside about the legal case surrounding Summit, raise a lot of troubling issues.
I can't tell you what a blog that deserves protection looks like, but I know it when I see it.
**********
I'm going have my first Imax experience this afternoon.
I'm not going because it's Mission Impossible.
I'm certainly not going because it's Tom Cruise. (Ugh.)
No, I'm going because of Brad Bird. Of the Incredibles. And even more importantly, of The Iron Giant!
Many hours later, my fingers were black and shiny, and I was soooooooo much more informed.....
**********
The article on the cluster of stores at Ninth and Wilson was interesting. I have no idea how this model of retail works. For me, the more foot traffic the better and I'm willing to pay for it. Saving a few bucks on rent just wouldn't make the difference.
The Bulletin mentions that they pay .40 a foot and downtown pays 1.50 a foot. Uh....try more like 2.00 a foot, (when triple net is included.)
Basically, the savings on rent would be worth about 20% of my sales. I'm pretty sure that my sales would drop by more than 20% by being in such an out of the way location.
Also, not being open 5 days a week?
**********
Much as I love writing this blog, I don't think of myself as a journalist.
On the other hand, I can see how a journalist might want to write a blog, and need to be protected by the 1st Amendment. Well, actually, I -- Do -- want to be protected by the 1st Amendment. Then again, I try to be truthful and honest in this blog. I try not to pass on scurrilous rumors. I try not to indulge in (too much) unfounded speculation. I try not to personally attack people. (And I try to enforce these rules on the comments as well...)
These are personal rules, arrived at by trial and error. I came to realize, for instance, that even if not a whole lot of people are reading this blog, that anyone can do a websearch of their name and what I say about them might pop up. I'm not interested in hurting people.
The Bulletin's editorial, and the article inside about the legal case surrounding Summit, raise a lot of troubling issues.
I can't tell you what a blog that deserves protection looks like, but I know it when I see it.
**********
I'm going have my first Imax experience this afternoon.
I'm not going because it's Mission Impossible.
I'm certainly not going because it's Tom Cruise. (Ugh.)
No, I'm going because of Brad Bird. Of the Incredibles. And even more importantly, of The Iron Giant!
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Slate has jumped the shark.
I will dump websites when they get overly annoying. (Just as I have no doubt people dump this site all the time....) Anyway, first Slate had that horrible article entitled, "Indie bookstores deserve to die a dogs death, drowned in a vat of steaming poo." (Or something like that, I don't remember the exact words.) and then yesterday they literally --I counted -- had 31 articles on Christopher Hitchens. I kid you not.
Not to speak ill of the dead, I didn't much care for the Hitchen's constant railing against Clinton or his promotion and support of the Iraq war, but he could be interesting in a drunkard's way.
But for god's sake, show some perspective. 31 articles? Even 5 articles would have been overkill for me.
It is time to dump Slate off my daily readings. I'm taking the radical step of removing it from my bookmarks. (I'm sure they felt a cold whiff of fear....)
Not to speak ill of the dead, I didn't much care for the Hitchen's constant railing against Clinton or his promotion and support of the Iraq war, but he could be interesting in a drunkard's way.
But for god's sake, show some perspective. 31 articles? Even 5 articles would have been overkill for me.
It is time to dump Slate off my daily readings. I'm taking the radical step of removing it from my bookmarks. (I'm sure they felt a cold whiff of fear....)
Friday, December 16, 2011
Is Christmas here yet?
I consider today to be the real start to the Christmas shopping season.
People are buying in-store from here on out. We get out-of-towners and tourists and vacationers and families. They LIKE downtown -- and I'm sure it's not as interesting to them to visit the exact same giant chainstores that they have where they came from.
Up until today, I've been having a hard time gauging the Christmas sales right. Too early, I suppose. I usually only do a bit above average in the first half of December, and then have a huge last 10 days or so.
I've been ordering tons of books -- and also anything else I think the store needs. My instinctive response is to order more material, not less, when in doubt. I can probably get a couple of more weekly shipments in before it's too late.
I also ordered a lot of boardgames, especially the big three: Ticket to Ride, Settlers of Catan, and Carcassonne. These games can sell in spurts -- like yesterday. I'm getting an order in today, which I thought would be the last of it -- but now, I'm thinking, I need to make one last -- just to be safe -- order. Not like I can't sell these games next year.
This time of year is kind of nerve-wracking because I just don't know what's going to happen and it matters. Trends are amplified. If something is selling good, it might sell even better. If things are on a downward track, they can go down even farther. Last year I sold more boardgames than I thought possible, but I was very aggressive in promoting them. This year, I'm just letting things happen. I'm not sure, but I suspect these games are more readily available elsewhere.
I mean, no matter what, (knock wood) we'll have one of our best months of the year. Despite threatening and blustering, the Sheriff of Nottingham hasn't quite managed to "Cancel Christmas!" yet.
I've kind of fallen out of the habit of comparing "This Day" to last year; and I haven't missed it. Except at Christmas. Then I kind of want to know what the trends were last year. Still, I haven't quite felt compelled to dig out last years records.
It will be what it will be.
People are buying in-store from here on out. We get out-of-towners and tourists and vacationers and families. They LIKE downtown -- and I'm sure it's not as interesting to them to visit the exact same giant chainstores that they have where they came from.
Up until today, I've been having a hard time gauging the Christmas sales right. Too early, I suppose. I usually only do a bit above average in the first half of December, and then have a huge last 10 days or so.
I've been ordering tons of books -- and also anything else I think the store needs. My instinctive response is to order more material, not less, when in doubt. I can probably get a couple of more weekly shipments in before it's too late.
I also ordered a lot of boardgames, especially the big three: Ticket to Ride, Settlers of Catan, and Carcassonne. These games can sell in spurts -- like yesterday. I'm getting an order in today, which I thought would be the last of it -- but now, I'm thinking, I need to make one last -- just to be safe -- order. Not like I can't sell these games next year.
This time of year is kind of nerve-wracking because I just don't know what's going to happen and it matters. Trends are amplified. If something is selling good, it might sell even better. If things are on a downward track, they can go down even farther. Last year I sold more boardgames than I thought possible, but I was very aggressive in promoting them. This year, I'm just letting things happen. I'm not sure, but I suspect these games are more readily available elsewhere.
I mean, no matter what, (knock wood) we'll have one of our best months of the year. Despite threatening and blustering, the Sheriff of Nottingham hasn't quite managed to "Cancel Christmas!" yet.
I've kind of fallen out of the habit of comparing "This Day" to last year; and I haven't missed it. Except at Christmas. Then I kind of want to know what the trends were last year. Still, I haven't quite felt compelled to dig out last years records.
It will be what it will be.
A washboard road.
You want to see what bumping along the bottom looks like? Check out the graph in the business page of the Bulletin today. "Bend Home Prices At 6-Year Low."
/\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
When the bust commenced I'd say to people who came in the store planning to buy a house -- "Wait 2 years." I started saying this in about 2007. I think I could probably say the same thing today -- at the very least, there isn't much jeopardy of the housing prices shooting up.
I regret that Bend Economy Board no longer posts their very handy "price changes" graph. It used to be 99% down arrows a couple of years ago, and if I was on the haunt (boo!) for a house, I would want to know about that.
I suspect it would be a whole lot worse if all the underwater and held back houses suddenly appeared on the market. It appears to me that they are trying hard to hold the line at about where it's at, thus the picture of a bumpy road.
/\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
When the bust commenced I'd say to people who came in the store planning to buy a house -- "Wait 2 years." I started saying this in about 2007. I think I could probably say the same thing today -- at the very least, there isn't much jeopardy of the housing prices shooting up.
I regret that Bend Economy Board no longer posts their very handy "price changes" graph. It used to be 99% down arrows a couple of years ago, and if I was on the haunt (boo!) for a house, I would want to know about that.
I suspect it would be a whole lot worse if all the underwater and held back houses suddenly appeared on the market. It appears to me that they are trying hard to hold the line at about where it's at, thus the picture of a bumpy road.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Still catching up to us?
Yesterday, it was Pronghorn.
Today it's Fuqua Homes. "Bend Homebuilder Faces Suit Over Payments." Bulletin, 12/15/1.
One of the things about booms and busts, is you can get in the bad habit of constantly trying to see the end of them.
I've always maintained that isn't until about the time you give up looking for an end, that it actually starts coming around.
False dawns aplenty. Lots of boosterism. Wishful thinking.
Anyway, I see no real signs that things have improved substantially around here. Tourism has come to the fore, and that's what is keeping our economy from collapsing completely. That and retirement. Those were always going to be our main industries, and unfortunately, they don't pay all that well.
A lot of us Bubble bloggers were predicting a range of 7 years for the length of the downturn. That seemed to be about an average for regional housing busts. If that were to be borne out, we still have about 3 years of downturn to go. Got to remember, though, that Bend wasn't the average and this bust isn't the average.
I go back to the '80's and how we had to wait a good 6 to 8 years for the economy just to get back to close to normal. Bend's situation was actually worse back then, but the national economy was much better.
So I'm planning for us to just keep on bumping along the bottom, with casualties on a regular basis as it finally catches up to them.
Today it's Fuqua Homes. "Bend Homebuilder Faces Suit Over Payments." Bulletin, 12/15/1.
One of the things about booms and busts, is you can get in the bad habit of constantly trying to see the end of them.
I've always maintained that isn't until about the time you give up looking for an end, that it actually starts coming around.
False dawns aplenty. Lots of boosterism. Wishful thinking.
Anyway, I see no real signs that things have improved substantially around here. Tourism has come to the fore, and that's what is keeping our economy from collapsing completely. That and retirement. Those were always going to be our main industries, and unfortunately, they don't pay all that well.
A lot of us Bubble bloggers were predicting a range of 7 years for the length of the downturn. That seemed to be about an average for regional housing busts. If that were to be borne out, we still have about 3 years of downturn to go. Got to remember, though, that Bend wasn't the average and this bust isn't the average.
I go back to the '80's and how we had to wait a good 6 to 8 years for the economy just to get back to close to normal. Bend's situation was actually worse back then, but the national economy was much better.
So I'm planning for us to just keep on bumping along the bottom, with casualties on a regular basis as it finally catches up to them.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
The Kindness of Strangers.
I had an odd reaction to Farhad Manjoo's article in Slate: "Independent Bookstores are Expensive, Inefficient, and Don't Deserve to be Saved."
As you might imagine, at first it was, "What a jerk!."
Then it was, oh, this is just an outrageous ploy for attention. Besides, he's the 'tech' guy and not reliable in his assessment.
But you know what? I'm not going to even argue with the contents of the article. (Which I think is mostly bullshit, and wrong.)
The point to me is -- THAT attitude exists. It's not often said out loud, but it is a very strong undercurrent. In the comic business, there are the local comic book shop haters. It's probably a little less politically correct to say the same about local bookstores. But it's there.
This article has gotten 605 comments, and the ones I read were mostly in favor of his view. And it got 754 'likes'. A pretty big confirmation that he touched a nerve.
I think the wisest thing to do is be aware that that sentiment exists, that it is strong, and that there isn't much you can do to change their minds.
Deal with it.
Before I go any farther, I want to say -- I very much appreciate the "local" buyers, and the supporters of independent, locally owned bookstores -- or any other locally owned store.
But my own guess is -- the entire appeal to customers by the movement is pretty ineffective, except at the margins.
My own business model accepts that there is a large percent -- probably the vast majority -- who prefer larger to smaller, and that they will assume that larger will have more, at cheaper prices.
If we have to depend "on the kindness of strangers" I think we're doomed. We should take a cold, hard look at what we can really do in the face of this phenomenon, instead of just really, really wishing the Tinker Bell will get up an fly. Please....Tinker Bell?
So, my reaction is -- this is a bracing reminder of what we are up against, and it's best to take it into account.
As you might imagine, at first it was, "What a jerk!."
Then it was, oh, this is just an outrageous ploy for attention. Besides, he's the 'tech' guy and not reliable in his assessment.
But you know what? I'm not going to even argue with the contents of the article. (Which I think is mostly bullshit, and wrong.)
The point to me is -- THAT attitude exists. It's not often said out loud, but it is a very strong undercurrent. In the comic business, there are the local comic book shop haters. It's probably a little less politically correct to say the same about local bookstores. But it's there.
This article has gotten 605 comments, and the ones I read were mostly in favor of his view. And it got 754 'likes'. A pretty big confirmation that he touched a nerve.
I think the wisest thing to do is be aware that that sentiment exists, that it is strong, and that there isn't much you can do to change their minds.
Deal with it.
Before I go any farther, I want to say -- I very much appreciate the "local" buyers, and the supporters of independent, locally owned bookstores -- or any other locally owned store.
But my own guess is -- the entire appeal to customers by the movement is pretty ineffective, except at the margins.
My own business model accepts that there is a large percent -- probably the vast majority -- who prefer larger to smaller, and that they will assume that larger will have more, at cheaper prices.
If we have to depend "on the kindness of strangers" I think we're doomed. We should take a cold, hard look at what we can really do in the face of this phenomenon, instead of just really, really wishing the Tinker Bell will get up an fly. Please....Tinker Bell?
So, my reaction is -- this is a bracing reminder of what we are up against, and it's best to take it into account.
Someone took a bath.
I'm assuming that since it's the loan notes that sold for Pronghorn, and not Pronghorn itself, that someone took a bath. At the very least, no blue sky.
Love how they spin it as a good thing. The lender "selected" the buyer -- um, because they actually had the money?
But I always look for this phrase: " He said he doesn't expect the deal to impact members."
You know, the "nothing will change" reassurance they always include, just before they change everything.
Having been turned away at the gates like a barbarian, I have very little sympathy for these guys.
And while I'm throwing water on things -- I liked the announcement the other day that the developers of Eagle Crest and a couple of other resorts were spending 3 million on updating each place and concentrating on the "resort" elements. Is 3 million supposed to be a whole lot? How much do they usually spend on just maintenance anyway?
Resort -- you know, the way it was supposed to be, instead of the subdivision real estate that it really was. The real money was in the buying and selling of real estate. Now they have to do something with those pesky things that were actually built....
Welcome to the tourist economy, folks.
So are there any of these newer destination resorts that HAVEN'T been dumped?
Love how they spin it as a good thing. The lender "selected" the buyer -- um, because they actually had the money?
But I always look for this phrase: " He said he doesn't expect the deal to impact members."
You know, the "nothing will change" reassurance they always include, just before they change everything.
Having been turned away at the gates like a barbarian, I have very little sympathy for these guys.
And while I'm throwing water on things -- I liked the announcement the other day that the developers of Eagle Crest and a couple of other resorts were spending 3 million on updating each place and concentrating on the "resort" elements. Is 3 million supposed to be a whole lot? How much do they usually spend on just maintenance anyway?
Resort -- you know, the way it was supposed to be, instead of the subdivision real estate that it really was. The real money was in the buying and selling of real estate. Now they have to do something with those pesky things that were actually built....
Welcome to the tourist economy, folks.
So are there any of these newer destination resorts that HAVEN'T been dumped?
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Dreamapooloza
Let's see.
I was trying to sell comics out of my college dorm room, but I suddenly realize I'm missing this week's comics.
I'm dating a sexy 30 year old girl, and am scolded by a nice looking middle aged woman who comes on to me.
I keep stopping my motorcycle in the middle of the road. A pedestrian comes along and pushes me to the side. (This after nearly going off the road taking a turn too fast.)
And on and on. One dream after another, like they had been blocked up.
**********
I was driving through the very busy intersection of 3rd and Greenwood last night, heading east, when I just happened to catch the silhouette of a pedestrian.
Then I couldn't see him again at all until I was about 10 feet away. Standing in the passing lane. Throwing his life to the winds....
**********
Poor German guy. He was just trying to be friendly. Girls on bikes!
**********
Bank robber is just going from town to town, now. I guess he wasn't planning on coming back, and didn't give a damn that anyone knew who he was.
**********
"....Amazon launched a promotion for Saturday that gives customers 5 percent off (up to $5) on up to three qualifying items on its site if they check the prices of those goods on the app while browsing at a physical store."
I was trying to sell comics out of my college dorm room, but I suddenly realize I'm missing this week's comics.
I'm dating a sexy 30 year old girl, and am scolded by a nice looking middle aged woman who comes on to me.
I keep stopping my motorcycle in the middle of the road. A pedestrian comes along and pushes me to the side. (This after nearly going off the road taking a turn too fast.)
And on and on. One dream after another, like they had been blocked up.
**********
I was driving through the very busy intersection of 3rd and Greenwood last night, heading east, when I just happened to catch the silhouette of a pedestrian.
Then I couldn't see him again at all until I was about 10 feet away. Standing in the passing lane. Throwing his life to the winds....
**********
Poor German guy. He was just trying to be friendly. Girls on bikes!
**********
Bank robber is just going from town to town, now. I guess he wasn't planning on coming back, and didn't give a damn that anyone knew who he was.
**********
"....Amazon launched a promotion for Saturday that gives customers 5 percent off (up to $5) on up to three qualifying items on its site if they check the prices of those goods on the app while browsing at a physical store."
WIKIPEDIA: In business predatory pricing is the practice of selling a product or service at a very low price, intending to drive competitors out of the market, or create barriers for entry for potential new competitors. If competitors or potential competitors cannot sustain equal or lower prices without losing money, they go out of business or choose not to enter the business. The predatory merchant then has fewer competitors or is even a de facto monopoly and hypothetically could then raise prices above what the market would otherwise bear.
In many countries predatory pricing is considered anti-competitive and is illegal under competition laws. It is usually difficult to prove that prices dropped because of deliberate predatory pricing rather than legitimate price competition. In any case, competitors may be driven out of the market before the case is ever heard.
***
RDC will be along shortly with a vigorous defense of this practice....
Monday, December 12, 2011
Developing the themes.
Went out to the Badlands again yesterday for a few hours to try to write.
Well, more like think. I'm not really in writing mode right now, but more in a musing thinking mode.
When I wrote the first draft, I concentrated on plot and characters.
I'm finding that the more I think about how to improve the first draft, the more I'm thinking in terms of "theme." The themes are running through the story from the very beginning, which wasn't thought out on a conscious level -- but there it is. It's a mystery how that happens, and rather miraculous.
The themes are there, and they are in turn fleshing out the characters and plot. I think I've got a pretty good handle in what I want to accomplish with a second draft.
I'm thinking it will add about 50% more content.
Linda warned me against unnecessarily "complexifying" the story. Which I'm leery of. But in fleshing out the characters and the plot and fully developing the themes, I feel like it will make it a better book.
It's the old eternal dilemma: Do you want it fast or do you want it good?
(The answer is: I want it fast AND good.)
Well, more like think. I'm not really in writing mode right now, but more in a musing thinking mode.
When I wrote the first draft, I concentrated on plot and characters.
I'm finding that the more I think about how to improve the first draft, the more I'm thinking in terms of "theme." The themes are running through the story from the very beginning, which wasn't thought out on a conscious level -- but there it is. It's a mystery how that happens, and rather miraculous.
The themes are there, and they are in turn fleshing out the characters and plot. I think I've got a pretty good handle in what I want to accomplish with a second draft.
I'm thinking it will add about 50% more content.
Linda warned me against unnecessarily "complexifying" the story. Which I'm leery of. But in fleshing out the characters and the plot and fully developing the themes, I feel like it will make it a better book.
It's the old eternal dilemma: Do you want it fast or do you want it good?
(The answer is: I want it fast AND good.)
Why....you dirty rat!
I used to have rats as pets, and they were great. Fun personalities, very friendly. There was Elmer and Paveratti and the inevitable Ratfinks....
But they died miserable, tumor-ridden deaths after only a few years, and I really didn't like watching it happen helplessly.
Anyway, there was an article in the Bulletin about an experiment with rats that showed they have empathy.
A roaming rat will work "tirelessly" to free a trapped rat; even when tempted with food.
I really liked the little detail that when the trapped rat is finally freed, the two rats have a little victory "celebration."
I can see that.
But they died miserable, tumor-ridden deaths after only a few years, and I really didn't like watching it happen helplessly.
Anyway, there was an article in the Bulletin about an experiment with rats that showed they have empathy.
A roaming rat will work "tirelessly" to free a trapped rat; even when tempted with food.
I really liked the little detail that when the trapped rat is finally freed, the two rats have a little victory "celebration."
I can see that.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
I'll bet you ten million....errr, 10 dollars.
I can't believe it, but the Republicans appear on the verge of picking the fat old corrupt pompous politician guy.
Wow.
I try not to be political on this blog, but this is a pretty interesting development.
**********
Try as I might, I just can't get interested in the Europe economic details -- no matter how much I know it will impact on us.
I'm about at the same level of knowledge I used to be about the American economy, but without the motivation to learn more. "Try as I might?" -- well, I'm not really trying.
Eyes blur, snooooooozzzzeeeeee.......
**********
Walmart heirs have a net worth more than the lowest 30% of the U.S. population.
Who are their best customers.
Instant karma.
They've never gotten a dime from me and they never will.
For some reason, it hasn't impacted my lifestyle one iota.
**********
A big baseball player caught using performance enhancing drugs. And I'm not familiar with him. Ryan Braun, MVP.
I thought I'd stay in touch with baseball better. Not proud of my ignorance (nor about the Euro crisis), just a little surprised by the depth of it.
I kind of like baseball, but I just don't seem to find the time for it.
Wow.
I try not to be political on this blog, but this is a pretty interesting development.
**********
Try as I might, I just can't get interested in the Europe economic details -- no matter how much I know it will impact on us.
I'm about at the same level of knowledge I used to be about the American economy, but without the motivation to learn more. "Try as I might?" -- well, I'm not really trying.
Eyes blur, snooooooozzzzeeeeee.......
**********
Walmart heirs have a net worth more than the lowest 30% of the U.S. population.
Who are their best customers.
Instant karma.
They've never gotten a dime from me and they never will.
For some reason, it hasn't impacted my lifestyle one iota.
**********
A big baseball player caught using performance enhancing drugs. And I'm not familiar with him. Ryan Braun, MVP.
I thought I'd stay in touch with baseball better. Not proud of my ignorance (nor about the Euro crisis), just a little surprised by the depth of it.
I kind of like baseball, but I just don't seem to find the time for it.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
The Game of Stores.
As I mentioned, about 40% of the stores and restaurants in downtown Bend have turned over in the last 3 years.
I don't know if this is more --or less -- than usual. (Which is one of the reasons I started keeping the Comings and Goings list. Eventually, I'll be able to see a pattern.)
I've never trusted the old cliche statistic that half of all businesses fail in the first two years -- I've always figured that was overstated by a long shot. (Now half -- or more -- in FIVE years, that I would believe.) I've always had the theory that anyone opening a business, especially in an expensive downtown, it going to hang on for At Least 2 years if at all possible. An average lease, I'm guessing, is 3 to 5 years, so that is when the big decision needs to be made.
By my reckoning, all the really fancy new restaurants, where a huge amount of money was spent to set up, have been replaced by now. The replacements getting a fancy new spot for a fraction the price -- Leaving a Beautiful Corpse, I call it.
I think the "failing upward" nature of downtown continues, as well. Many of the replacement stores are fancier than the ones before, and the old spaces get renovated because they become available and they become available because an older business left.
Unfortunately, the low vacancy rate keeps the rents relatively high. Housing prices have dropped like 55% around this town, but downtown rents have declined maybe 10 or 20%, and with cost of living increases, much of that has been raised back up again.
So the Game of Stores will continue, because people see a 'thriving' downtown, and probably overestimate the business and the ability to pay the rents.
I don't know if this is more --or less -- than usual. (Which is one of the reasons I started keeping the Comings and Goings list. Eventually, I'll be able to see a pattern.)
I've never trusted the old cliche statistic that half of all businesses fail in the first two years -- I've always figured that was overstated by a long shot. (Now half -- or more -- in FIVE years, that I would believe.) I've always had the theory that anyone opening a business, especially in an expensive downtown, it going to hang on for At Least 2 years if at all possible. An average lease, I'm guessing, is 3 to 5 years, so that is when the big decision needs to be made.
By my reckoning, all the really fancy new restaurants, where a huge amount of money was spent to set up, have been replaced by now. The replacements getting a fancy new spot for a fraction the price -- Leaving a Beautiful Corpse, I call it.
I think the "failing upward" nature of downtown continues, as well. Many of the replacement stores are fancier than the ones before, and the old spaces get renovated because they become available and they become available because an older business left.
Unfortunately, the low vacancy rate keeps the rents relatively high. Housing prices have dropped like 55% around this town, but downtown rents have declined maybe 10 or 20%, and with cost of living increases, much of that has been raised back up again.
So the Game of Stores will continue, because people see a 'thriving' downtown, and probably overestimate the business and the ability to pay the rents.
Downtown Comings and Goings. 12/10/11.
I was just about to post that the Bond Street Grill was closed, when it was announced in the Bulletin this morning that Brother Jon's is opening a second location in that space.
The Game of Stores continues...
My count, is 80 business locations have changed hands in the last 3 years, or about 40%.
NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN
Brother Jon's, Bond St., 12/10/11.
What Lola Wants, Wall St. , 12/2/11.
Jackalope Grill, 10/12/11.
Gypsy Soul, Wall St. 10/12/11.
Colour N' the City, Tin Pan Alley, 10/12/11.
Lotus Moon, Brooks St., 10/12/11.
The Lobby, Bond St. , 10/12/11.
Ruby, Minnesota Ave., 10, 12/11.
Kariella, Lava Road, 8/24, 11.
Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(List begun, Fall, 2008.)
BUSINESSES LEAVING
Bond Street Grill, Bond St., 11/20/12.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 10/11.
Azu, Wall St., 10/25/11.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Av., 10/11.
Bourbon St., Minnesota Ave. 10/12/11.
Curiosity Shop, Minnesota Ave., 7/11
Luluemon, Bond St., 8/26, 11.
Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(List begun, Fall 2008.)
The Game of Stores continues...
My count, is 80 business locations have changed hands in the last 3 years, or about 40%.
NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN
Brother Jon's, Bond St., 12/10/11.
What Lola Wants, Wall St. , 12/2/11.
Jackalope Grill, 10/12/11.
Gypsy Soul, Wall St. 10/12/11.
Colour N' the City, Tin Pan Alley, 10/12/11.
Lotus Moon, Brooks St., 10/12/11.
The Lobby, Bond St. , 10/12/11.
Ruby, Minnesota Ave., 10, 12/11.
Kariella, Lava Road, 8/24, 11.
Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(List begun, Fall, 2008.)
BUSINESSES LEAVING
Bond Street Grill, Bond St., 11/20/12.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 10/11.
Azu, Wall St., 10/25/11.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Av., 10/11.
Bourbon St., Minnesota Ave. 10/12/11.
Curiosity Shop, Minnesota Ave., 7/11
Luluemon, Bond St., 8/26, 11.
Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(List begun, Fall 2008.)
A simple plot.
I woke up this this storyline in my head:
"You know the saying that even paranoids have enemies? Well, that's what this blog is about. Someone is trying to kill me and no one believes me...
I'm not quite certifiable. I can carry on my normal day. Even my wife thinks this is some kind of long con joke.
But it's true.
If you find me dead, you'll know I was murdered."
Maybe I can continue this story -- maybe not -- but I thought I'd write it down. Probably not terribly original, but if it I were to continue, it would be an attempt to make it as believable as possible.
I've always admired the book, "A Simple Plan" because the premise is so believable and simple and everything flows from it:
*** While out hunting, three friends find a crashed airplane with a bag of money in it. If they take the money, no one will ever know. All they have to do is be smart and patient....***
"You know the saying that even paranoids have enemies? Well, that's what this blog is about. Someone is trying to kill me and no one believes me...
I'm not quite certifiable. I can carry on my normal day. Even my wife thinks this is some kind of long con joke.
But it's true.
If you find me dead, you'll know I was murdered."
Maybe I can continue this story -- maybe not -- but I thought I'd write it down. Probably not terribly original, but if it I were to continue, it would be an attempt to make it as believable as possible.
I've always admired the book, "A Simple Plan" because the premise is so believable and simple and everything flows from it:
*** While out hunting, three friends find a crashed airplane with a bag of money in it. If they take the money, no one will ever know. All they have to do is be smart and patient....***
Friday, December 9, 2011
This time, that space.
I'm slowly but surely adding authors to my stock.
Next order -- I'm going to order every Lee Child and Wilbur Smith paperback available.
I'm just going to MAKE you buy because I have it, dammit!
**********
I'm suddenly getting some high profile Twitter followers --well, high profile for the nerd world. Star Wars Insider, CLINT magazine, etc.
What does this mean? Do they just follow everyone? Did one of my tweets get passed around? Is there any way of knowing?
UPDATE: Jerad says they're just fishing for followers.
O.K.
**********
Linda was late picking up Dad. "I just lost track of time and space," she says.
"Einstein says, time and space are connected."
Blank look.
"If you're here, at this time, you can't be there, at this time."
Blanker look.
Hey, I thought it was a pretty good explanation.
Next order -- I'm going to order every Lee Child and Wilbur Smith paperback available.
I'm just going to MAKE you buy because I have it, dammit!
**********
I'm suddenly getting some high profile Twitter followers --well, high profile for the nerd world. Star Wars Insider, CLINT magazine, etc.
What does this mean? Do they just follow everyone? Did one of my tweets get passed around? Is there any way of knowing?
UPDATE: Jerad says they're just fishing for followers.
O.K.
**********
Linda was late picking up Dad. "I just lost track of time and space," she says.
"Einstein says, time and space are connected."
Blank look.
"If you're here, at this time, you can't be there, at this time."
Blanker look.
Hey, I thought it was a pretty good explanation.
Leave and learn.
So a guy from Redmond robs a bank in Bend, where people know him. I was told by a customer that the people at the bank even knew his name!
I'd say that's a cry for help.
**********
I have about 4 sites that I go to daily that recommend books. Either stellar reviews or best-of lists or simple mentions that sound intriguing. I'd have to say, about 20 books on average per site. (Actually, way more than that, but I'll limit it to significant profiles.)
If I was just to order 10% of just those books, it would be 8 books a day, 240 books a month. With, say, an average retail price of 20.00 (being newer books, most are hardcover or trade paperback), that would by 4800.00 a month in just those books. Just four sites I happen to visit, just 2 books per site.
That's not including all the replacement books, the automatic purchases of certain authors, the best-sellers, and -- well, just every fricken book that's ever been published up to the day...
I get the feeling that people have no real idea not only how many books there are, but how many really good and interesting books there are.
It can get kind of silly at Christmas. People come in with ridiculously specific and obscure titles. Sometimes I even have them! But they walk away, thinking they'll find it elsewhere, to which I really want to blurt: "Dude! Not only won't you find this book cheaper. You flat out won't find this book!"
Leave and learn. (I just made that up. "Leave and Learn." So pleased with myself today.)
(Leave my store and learn how hard it is to buy it elsewhere. Instant Karma.)
**********
So I stocked up on boardgames. Settlers of Catan, Ticket to Ride, Catan, and many others. Multiple copies of the major games, one or two of most of the rest.
I have people window shopping, which is fine, I guess.
But there is a chance I'll get a run on some of these games and there won't be time to reorder. This waiting until the last week is problematic on stocking levels-- but hey, maybe it's the only thing that gives us Christmas business at all. Everyone orders online until the last 10 days, then they HAVE to buy from us locals.
Heh.
**********
"Midnight in Paris," is still running in town. What? Did the theater accidentally buy the film print?
**********
I'd say that's a cry for help.
**********
I have about 4 sites that I go to daily that recommend books. Either stellar reviews or best-of lists or simple mentions that sound intriguing. I'd have to say, about 20 books on average per site. (Actually, way more than that, but I'll limit it to significant profiles.)
If I was just to order 10% of just those books, it would be 8 books a day, 240 books a month. With, say, an average retail price of 20.00 (being newer books, most are hardcover or trade paperback), that would by 4800.00 a month in just those books. Just four sites I happen to visit, just 2 books per site.
That's not including all the replacement books, the automatic purchases of certain authors, the best-sellers, and -- well, just every fricken book that's ever been published up to the day...
I get the feeling that people have no real idea not only how many books there are, but how many really good and interesting books there are.
It can get kind of silly at Christmas. People come in with ridiculously specific and obscure titles. Sometimes I even have them! But they walk away, thinking they'll find it elsewhere, to which I really want to blurt: "Dude! Not only won't you find this book cheaper. You flat out won't find this book!"
Leave and learn. (I just made that up. "Leave and Learn." So pleased with myself today.)
(Leave my store and learn how hard it is to buy it elsewhere. Instant Karma.)
**********
So I stocked up on boardgames. Settlers of Catan, Ticket to Ride, Catan, and many others. Multiple copies of the major games, one or two of most of the rest.
I have people window shopping, which is fine, I guess.
But there is a chance I'll get a run on some of these games and there won't be time to reorder. This waiting until the last week is problematic on stocking levels-- but hey, maybe it's the only thing that gives us Christmas business at all. Everyone orders online until the last 10 days, then they HAVE to buy from us locals.
Heh.
**********
"Midnight in Paris," is still running in town. What? Did the theater accidentally buy the film print?
**********
"Up to my neck in Dragon turds."
I wake up with little sayings, or plot developments. It's really kind of a wonderful thing.
I woke up with the phrase, "Up to my neck in Dragon turds," which I like so much I'm thinking I'll title each of the chapters if I can come up with enough clever sayings.
"Dragons are Mean." Is another one I liked.
The other day, I came up with the title of my next book. "The Case of the Lovelorn Gargoyle."
I even had a kind of vision of an Eeyore type (in personality) character who comes to Cobb for help. Which turns into another apocalyptic situation.
I woke up with the phrase, "Up to my neck in Dragon turds," which I like so much I'm thinking I'll title each of the chapters if I can come up with enough clever sayings.
"Dragons are Mean." Is another one I liked.
The other day, I came up with the title of my next book. "The Case of the Lovelorn Gargoyle."
I even had a kind of vision of an Eeyore type (in personality) character who comes to Cobb for help. Which turns into another apocalyptic situation.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
If you say so.
"Business Insider" says Bend will be the best housing market over the next five years.
Uh.....if you say so.
I'm posting this so that I might get some second opinions from some of the other bubble bloggers. This seems based on nothing more than the fact that we've dropped so far....which seems like a dubious reason.
What say you?
Uh.....if you say so.
I'm posting this so that I might get some second opinions from some of the other bubble bloggers. This seems based on nothing more than the fact that we've dropped so far....which seems like a dubious reason.
What say you?
Two stores, ten times the work.
Interesting article on a Bend downtown business opening a second store in downtown Redmond. "Extending The Blvd." Bulletin, 12/8/11.
I won't presume to second-guess this decision. (Well, one small quibble -- if they just opened the Bend store in July, 2010, that's awfully quick expansion.) I will assume that they have a solid plan and are well capitalized.
What caught my attention was this statement: "...it is fairly unusual to have a local store in Both Bend and Redmond..." In fact, they could only name one other small business -- Bella Moda.
I would add, that I know several businesses that actually have second outlets in Eugene and Portland.
I can speak with some experience here -- I had a store on 6th St. in downtown Redmond in the early 90's. (As well as stores in Sisters and the Mountain View Mall.) This was mostly due to an absolutely red hot product --that turned out to be a bubble in the end, but had some busy years. (See Andy -- I didn't mention sports cards....oops.)
Anyway, the idea at the time was to spread the copious inventory I was accumulating. I'd buy cases of cards to get the best price, and it made sense to spread the risk.
What I didn't see was the old 20/80 rule: 20% of your product will make 80% of your profits. Turns out, the 20% wasn't so easy to get or easy to spread out, and no one really wanted the other 80%. Turns out, as well, that the costs of managing the stores ate up all the profits.
Turns out, each store will provide one to one and half incomes -- less than the old Mom and Pop, model actually. So when Linda has one store, and I have another -- it works.
Anyway, when the sport card bubble collapsed, I retrenched to my downtown Bend store -- doubling it in size so it wouldn't look like a complete defeat. We managed to sell the mall store, which was still profitable.
Funny thing was, I learned that having a store in Bend and Redmond is a little bit like An Appointment at Samara: you try to avoid your fate, but it happens anyway.
I would spend a morning going to my Sisters and Redmond stores -- supplying them with material -- and then drop by the Mountain View Mall store and see my Sisters and Redmond customers at the counter....
I will admit, it was a very different time. Back then, Redmond was much, much smaller. But then again, the competition level was lower as well. The chainstores didn't really store stomping in to Central Oregon until about 1992 and thereafter.
Anyway, thems the fruits of my experience.
I won't presume to second-guess this decision. (Well, one small quibble -- if they just opened the Bend store in July, 2010, that's awfully quick expansion.) I will assume that they have a solid plan and are well capitalized.
What caught my attention was this statement: "...it is fairly unusual to have a local store in Both Bend and Redmond..." In fact, they could only name one other small business -- Bella Moda.
I would add, that I know several businesses that actually have second outlets in Eugene and Portland.
I can speak with some experience here -- I had a store on 6th St. in downtown Redmond in the early 90's. (As well as stores in Sisters and the Mountain View Mall.) This was mostly due to an absolutely red hot product --that turned out to be a bubble in the end, but had some busy years. (See Andy -- I didn't mention sports cards....oops.)
Anyway, the idea at the time was to spread the copious inventory I was accumulating. I'd buy cases of cards to get the best price, and it made sense to spread the risk.
What I didn't see was the old 20/80 rule: 20% of your product will make 80% of your profits. Turns out, the 20% wasn't so easy to get or easy to spread out, and no one really wanted the other 80%. Turns out, as well, that the costs of managing the stores ate up all the profits.
Turns out, each store will provide one to one and half incomes -- less than the old Mom and Pop, model actually. So when Linda has one store, and I have another -- it works.
Anyway, when the sport card bubble collapsed, I retrenched to my downtown Bend store -- doubling it in size so it wouldn't look like a complete defeat. We managed to sell the mall store, which was still profitable.
Funny thing was, I learned that having a store in Bend and Redmond is a little bit like An Appointment at Samara: you try to avoid your fate, but it happens anyway.
I would spend a morning going to my Sisters and Redmond stores -- supplying them with material -- and then drop by the Mountain View Mall store and see my Sisters and Redmond customers at the counter....
I will admit, it was a very different time. Back then, Redmond was much, much smaller. But then again, the competition level was lower as well. The chainstores didn't really store stomping in to Central Oregon until about 1992 and thereafter.
Anyway, thems the fruits of my experience.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Exposure. Thanks for nuttin.
Once again I'm hearing the old 'exposure' argument from my business 'partners' further up the food chain.
Exposure of comics in the digital realm will lead customers to comic shops, they tell me.
This is one of those ideas that sound pretty good on the outside, but are complete bullshit.
I've heard it presented as an excuse for my suppliers to give special consideration to outlets bigger than me -- mass market or internet and now digital -- a hundred times over the last 30 years, and it has NEVER happened.
It doesn't work that way, except in the most general sense of -- the bigger the scene, the more likely I'll sell something. But what happens most often is, the smaller stores like mine actually develop the market until it's big enough for the larger entities to take over. NOT the other way around.
If the product is in bigger stores, than that exposure turns to sales in bigger stores. It doesn't make people turn around and go shop at the smaller store.
Exposure? I had hordes of folk in my store buying beanie babies, and pokemon, and pogs -- but as soon as they were through buying them, they were gone.
Comic exposure? With all the media attention and the big tent movies, anyone who doesn't know that comics are here has three slabs of concrete around their brains and nothing short of a wrecking ball will break through. (And yes there are a number of those people.)
It's much the same reasoning as the downtown festivals. "Sure, you lose sales on the day of the event, but you are 'exposed' to new customers!" I'm told, to which I want to say -- "Wait. They are there. They are downtown. Nothing is keeping them from buying on that day and they don't. But they will turnaround and remember you in a week and make a special trip to the store they passed over while they were there?"
Customers will buy where they see something and where they are. Fine. Don't pretend that it's good for me that Walmart has it....
Exposure. Blech.
Exposure of comics in the digital realm will lead customers to comic shops, they tell me.
This is one of those ideas that sound pretty good on the outside, but are complete bullshit.
I've heard it presented as an excuse for my suppliers to give special consideration to outlets bigger than me -- mass market or internet and now digital -- a hundred times over the last 30 years, and it has NEVER happened.
It doesn't work that way, except in the most general sense of -- the bigger the scene, the more likely I'll sell something. But what happens most often is, the smaller stores like mine actually develop the market until it's big enough for the larger entities to take over. NOT the other way around.
If the product is in bigger stores, than that exposure turns to sales in bigger stores. It doesn't make people turn around and go shop at the smaller store.
Exposure? I had hordes of folk in my store buying beanie babies, and pokemon, and pogs -- but as soon as they were through buying them, they were gone.
Comic exposure? With all the media attention and the big tent movies, anyone who doesn't know that comics are here has three slabs of concrete around their brains and nothing short of a wrecking ball will break through. (And yes there are a number of those people.)
It's much the same reasoning as the downtown festivals. "Sure, you lose sales on the day of the event, but you are 'exposed' to new customers!" I'm told, to which I want to say -- "Wait. They are there. They are downtown. Nothing is keeping them from buying on that day and they don't. But they will turnaround and remember you in a week and make a special trip to the store they passed over while they were there?"
Customers will buy where they see something and where they are. Fine. Don't pretend that it's good for me that Walmart has it....
Exposure. Blech.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
What? Says the N.Y. Fed. There was a bubble?
If these are the guys in charge, we're in big trouble.
See, I thought the following was a given. Acknowledged by all. Understood.
But, then again, I watched the Bubble from Ground Zero -- Bend, ever-lovin Oregon.
"Flip This House”: Investor Speculation and the Housing Bubble
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joseph Tracy, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
The recent financial crisis—the worst in eighty years—had its origins in the enormous increase and subsequent collapse in housing prices during the 2000s. While the housing bubble has been the subject of intense public debate and research, no single answer has emerged to explain why prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously. In this post, we present new findings from our recent New York Fed study that uses unique data to suggest that real estate “investors”—borrowers who use financial leverage in the form of mortgage credit to purchase multiple residential properties—played a previously unrecognized, but very important, role. These investors likely helped push prices up during 2004-06; but when prices turned down in early 2006, they defaulted in large numbers and thereby contributed importantly to the intensity of the housing cycle’s downward leg.
Really? Who'd have thunk it.
It was a Bubble, big guys. What part of the phenomenon don't you understand?
They act as though, the fact that "prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously" was a big mystery.
And that they are surprised, surprised I tell you!, that investor speculation was a main factor.
"...previously unrecognized?" Good lord.
In my experience, Speculation is the Major cause of any and all Bubbles. And the speculation in the housing market wasn't just investors in multiple houses -- it was buyers making bad deals and buying bigger houses than they could afford, with the idea that the house would increase in price and allow them to afford it later. Speculation, whether acknowledged or understood at the time.
Are the Fed really so clueless?
Or is this some kind of P.R. bullshit?
See, I thought the following was a given. Acknowledged by all. Understood.
But, then again, I watched the Bubble from Ground Zero -- Bend, ever-lovin Oregon.
"Flip This House”: Investor Speculation and the Housing Bubble
Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joseph Tracy, and Wilbert van der Klaauw
The recent financial crisis—the worst in eighty years—had its origins in the enormous increase and subsequent collapse in housing prices during the 2000s. While the housing bubble has been the subject of intense public debate and research, no single answer has emerged to explain why prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously. In this post, we present new findings from our recent New York Fed study that uses unique data to suggest that real estate “investors”—borrowers who use financial leverage in the form of mortgage credit to purchase multiple residential properties—played a previously unrecognized, but very important, role. These investors likely helped push prices up during 2004-06; but when prices turned down in early 2006, they defaulted in large numbers and thereby contributed importantly to the intensity of the housing cycle’s downward leg.
Really? Who'd have thunk it.
It was a Bubble, big guys. What part of the phenomenon don't you understand?
They act as though, the fact that "prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously" was a big mystery.
And that they are surprised, surprised I tell you!, that investor speculation was a main factor.
"...previously unrecognized?" Good lord.
In my experience, Speculation is the Major cause of any and all Bubbles. And the speculation in the housing market wasn't just investors in multiple houses -- it was buyers making bad deals and buying bigger houses than they could afford, with the idea that the house would increase in price and allow them to afford it later. Speculation, whether acknowledged or understood at the time.
Are the Fed really so clueless?
Or is this some kind of P.R. bullshit?
Make way! Make way!
Another digital brouhaha in the comic world. Dark Horse announced same day and date release of their comics, following the examples of DC and Marvel and several other smaller companies. But they implied they were going to sell their digital versions cheaper.
After a day of outrage from the retailers, Mike Richardson released a statement that comics wouldn't decrease in price for the first month. (But retailers still pointed out that they are selling most of their print comics for 3.50; and because Amazon wants prices to end at -99, they will be selling most comics for 2.99.)
Anyway, the general thrust is pretty clear. The handwriting is on the wall.
I still think that the comic companies are making a huge mistake actually facilitating this change, instead of delaying it, but it doesn't matter what I think.
Each of the companies are going about it in a slightly different way; Marvel is enclosing digital codes in it's comics; DC has contracted with a specific company to set up an account with; Dark Horse and IDW and others are more open, to Amazon among others.
I think that if this weren't being pushed, that reader erosion would be minimal for the first few years. Even with the pushing, I still don't believe it will be a landslide. But, yeah. If you offer it, they will come.
My response is to recognize reality and move on. Make way for another way of doing business. That doesn't mean I've given up, or anything.
It reminds me of the sports card debacle. When the card companies started offering product cheaper through the mass market (this was pre-internet, but it was the same dynamic or worse), I encouraged my fellow retailers NOT to buy this product from them. To cut their orders to only what they could sell. To not engage in cut throat, suicidally competitive practices. As far as I know, I'm the only card dealer I know of that made the necessary steps early on. Most just went off the cliff.
Ironically, my response has been to double down on the other product in the store; games, toys, cards, anime and manga, and especially new and used books. It's ironic, because most of these product lines are already in the marginal zone that I expect comics to be in five years or so.
My response is to make maximum use of the fact that I'm in a downtown tourist zone, by carrying a wide and deep variety of material -- even in product lines that have been thoroughly exploited by the internet and the mass market. I need to have the possibility of a sale to anyone who walks in the door, and make sure those someones actually walk through door and see something they want.
It's not an ideal solution, but I have a lot of confidence in my ability to pick the kind of stuff that people will buy -- even though the internet and the mass market might already have it. I have to be smart in my buying and my selling. The hill just gets a little steeper every year, but you know what? It's always been that way.
After a day of outrage from the retailers, Mike Richardson released a statement that comics wouldn't decrease in price for the first month. (But retailers still pointed out that they are selling most of their print comics for 3.50; and because Amazon wants prices to end at -99, they will be selling most comics for 2.99.)
Anyway, the general thrust is pretty clear. The handwriting is on the wall.
I still think that the comic companies are making a huge mistake actually facilitating this change, instead of delaying it, but it doesn't matter what I think.
Each of the companies are going about it in a slightly different way; Marvel is enclosing digital codes in it's comics; DC has contracted with a specific company to set up an account with; Dark Horse and IDW and others are more open, to Amazon among others.
I think that if this weren't being pushed, that reader erosion would be minimal for the first few years. Even with the pushing, I still don't believe it will be a landslide. But, yeah. If you offer it, they will come.
My response is to recognize reality and move on. Make way for another way of doing business. That doesn't mean I've given up, or anything.
It reminds me of the sports card debacle. When the card companies started offering product cheaper through the mass market (this was pre-internet, but it was the same dynamic or worse), I encouraged my fellow retailers NOT to buy this product from them. To cut their orders to only what they could sell. To not engage in cut throat, suicidally competitive practices. As far as I know, I'm the only card dealer I know of that made the necessary steps early on. Most just went off the cliff.
Ironically, my response has been to double down on the other product in the store; games, toys, cards, anime and manga, and especially new and used books. It's ironic, because most of these product lines are already in the marginal zone that I expect comics to be in five years or so.
My response is to make maximum use of the fact that I'm in a downtown tourist zone, by carrying a wide and deep variety of material -- even in product lines that have been thoroughly exploited by the internet and the mass market. I need to have the possibility of a sale to anyone who walks in the door, and make sure those someones actually walk through door and see something they want.
It's not an ideal solution, but I have a lot of confidence in my ability to pick the kind of stuff that people will buy -- even though the internet and the mass market might already have it. I have to be smart in my buying and my selling. The hill just gets a little steeper every year, but you know what? It's always been that way.
Monday, December 5, 2011
All the beautiful books.
Oh, man. There are a lot of books.
I am resistant to 'best-seller' lists, but I'm a sucker for 'best-of' lists.
I go to sites like Flavorwire or Shelf Awareness, and they show the cover to a book and I want it. They list books in a theme, and I want them all. They mention a book that is "like" other books and I got to have it.
I have a feeling that there is some quid pro quo going on in some of these lists. Reviews and ads do seem to coincide a lot. But if they seem cool, I guess maybe that doesn't matter.
Just looking at the liquidation sites, it's amazing how many cool books seem to have fallen between the cracks of publishing and selling. Good looking books, with interesting subjects, but obviously they didn't sell enough.
There's room for only a few at the top -- and they aren't always the best, obviously. In fact, the reason I don't look at the best-sellers lists is because they are mostly atrocious. I'd say about half of the books are readable, and maybe thirty percent are good. As a general rule.
Pulp, and faux literature. (This is not to say, genre -- to me genre can be as good as anything Oprah recommends, and often better -- no, I'm talking about the lowest common denominator of these types of books.) The hardest thing for me to do is not roll my eyes when someone says they like a horrible author. (And here, I'm not actually talking about the quality of the writing so much as the sleazy, jump on the bandwagon, calculating nature of so many best sellers.)
Meanwhile, there's a book over there that is totally original. But I can't sell it, because the customer has never heard of it.
I can't read all these books -- but I can get a general sense of them. I use that instinct to buy books, and my store reflects that. If I'm right, I'll sell enough of them. If I'm wrong....
Well, I can't be wrong.
I am resistant to 'best-seller' lists, but I'm a sucker for 'best-of' lists.
I go to sites like Flavorwire or Shelf Awareness, and they show the cover to a book and I want it. They list books in a theme, and I want them all. They mention a book that is "like" other books and I got to have it.
I have a feeling that there is some quid pro quo going on in some of these lists. Reviews and ads do seem to coincide a lot. But if they seem cool, I guess maybe that doesn't matter.
Just looking at the liquidation sites, it's amazing how many cool books seem to have fallen between the cracks of publishing and selling. Good looking books, with interesting subjects, but obviously they didn't sell enough.
There's room for only a few at the top -- and they aren't always the best, obviously. In fact, the reason I don't look at the best-sellers lists is because they are mostly atrocious. I'd say about half of the books are readable, and maybe thirty percent are good. As a general rule.
Pulp, and faux literature. (This is not to say, genre -- to me genre can be as good as anything Oprah recommends, and often better -- no, I'm talking about the lowest common denominator of these types of books.) The hardest thing for me to do is not roll my eyes when someone says they like a horrible author. (And here, I'm not actually talking about the quality of the writing so much as the sleazy, jump on the bandwagon, calculating nature of so many best sellers.)
Meanwhile, there's a book over there that is totally original. But I can't sell it, because the customer has never heard of it.
I can't read all these books -- but I can get a general sense of them. I use that instinct to buy books, and my store reflects that. If I'm right, I'll sell enough of them. If I'm wrong....
Well, I can't be wrong.
The book I want it to be.
I've decided to hold off writing the last chapter to my book, until I've rewritten all the chapters that lead up to it.
For one thing, the ending incorporates creatures and characters that still need to be fleshed out. Actually, some don't even exist yet, except as a general idea.
Holidays are a really tough time for me to write, especially because I'm in retail. I've gotten a humongous amount of product at the store over the last couple of weeks that I've been dealing with. Holiday party for writers group, the article in the paper -- doesn't take much to throw me off.
So I've decided to spend the month making notes --which has to be done anyway -- and then sitting down in the first 10 days of 2012 and rewriting.
I've got all kinds of aspirations for the second draft -- which is a start at least. I think you kind of have to have to aspirations before you can have the results.
A book spends a lot of time in my mind as a entity that doesn't exist, full of fun and emotion and suspense -- the image, in a vague way, of what I WANT it to be.
The actual book is a whole nother thing -- but I think it's important to have that image in mind.
For one thing, the ending incorporates creatures and characters that still need to be fleshed out. Actually, some don't even exist yet, except as a general idea.
Holidays are a really tough time for me to write, especially because I'm in retail. I've gotten a humongous amount of product at the store over the last couple of weeks that I've been dealing with. Holiday party for writers group, the article in the paper -- doesn't take much to throw me off.
So I've decided to spend the month making notes --which has to be done anyway -- and then sitting down in the first 10 days of 2012 and rewriting.
I've got all kinds of aspirations for the second draft -- which is a start at least. I think you kind of have to have to aspirations before you can have the results.
A book spends a lot of time in my mind as a entity that doesn't exist, full of fun and emotion and suspense -- the image, in a vague way, of what I WANT it to be.
The actual book is a whole nother thing -- but I think it's important to have that image in mind.
Pinched nerve, ouch....blah, blah, blah.
I was just getting ready to brag that I haven't had back or neck problems for a couple years now -- since I changed the position I sleep and --for neck problems -- not drinking before bed.
Then, yesterday, I was casually putting books away at my store, and I felt the nerve in my back pinch.
Same nerve as always.
The first time it happened, about 25 years ago, I was laid low. I couldn't move off the couch.
Each time I get it now, it's a little less dire. I can pretty much function now. I take an Aleve immediately, and then just try not to move much -- nothing I can do but wait it out.
I'm pretty sure this is the most uninteresting blog I've ever written....
Then, yesterday, I was casually putting books away at my store, and I felt the nerve in my back pinch.
Same nerve as always.
The first time it happened, about 25 years ago, I was laid low. I couldn't move off the couch.
Each time I get it now, it's a little less dire. I can pretty much function now. I take an Aleve immediately, and then just try not to move much -- nothing I can do but wait it out.
I'm pretty sure this is the most uninteresting blog I've ever written....
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Sunday suds.
Remember when the Ducks couldn't get into a bowl game at all? When having a winning record seemed impossible?
The Rose Bowl was a dream.
National Championship? Don't make me laugh.
So when the Ducks have a season where the consolation prize is the Rose Bowl, I guess we shouldn't feel too bad.
Meanwhile, a Bend school winning the state football championship. That too hasn't been likely for years. Bigger schools, bigger talent pool in the valley. (Yeah, well I suppose there are always Black Swans like Prineville, and that team that Gene Hackman coached in Indiana).
**********
Twilight Breaking Dawn. The reviews made this so utterly unappealing, that I doubt I'll ever see it. (I did watch the first three movies because I could fit them over a weekend...)
Meanwhile -- go see Hugo. Really. A great movie.
**********
Can we root for Tiger as an underdog now?
***********
Linda has a cold, for the second time this season.
I managed to avoid the last one against all odds. I'm not so sanguine about me chances this time.
The Rose Bowl was a dream.
National Championship? Don't make me laugh.
So when the Ducks have a season where the consolation prize is the Rose Bowl, I guess we shouldn't feel too bad.
Meanwhile, a Bend school winning the state football championship. That too hasn't been likely for years. Bigger schools, bigger talent pool in the valley. (Yeah, well I suppose there are always Black Swans like Prineville, and that team that Gene Hackman coached in Indiana).
**********
Twilight Breaking Dawn. The reviews made this so utterly unappealing, that I doubt I'll ever see it. (I did watch the first three movies because I could fit them over a weekend...)
Meanwhile -- go see Hugo. Really. A great movie.
**********
Can we root for Tiger as an underdog now?
***********
Linda has a cold, for the second time this season.
I managed to avoid the last one against all odds. I'm not so sanguine about me chances this time.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Wishful thinking.
Newt Gingrich has always looked like a fat cat to me. Put some whiskers on him.
(Linda: "yeah, one of those pampered pudgy fat cats with scrunched faces...)
**********
The news of a unemployment rate dropping was tempered by the fact that so many people dropped out of the workforce.
But isn't this a constant? Aren't they always dropping out?
I'm assuming from the news that this was an extraordinary number not a ordinary number of dropouts, but they don't make it very clear.
**********
If I may be a Grinch. The Black Friday sales increase is somewhat of an illusion.
First, for many stores, there is the little matter of cutting margins. (They don't cut margins -- I'm guessing -- as much as they lead the customers to believe, there is some calculation going on there, but....) Higher sales and lower profits just means you have to restock the stores. Or not. Which is why there are shortages, when the stores are in doubt.
Secondly, I think a whole lot of these sales are 'borrowed' from future days. The week after Black Friday is usually dreadfully slow, so slow that you wondered if it doesn't just average out.
**********
It's a bit of a dangerous dynamic that's been created -- by the mass market, and we small stores have to fall in line.
We have become very dependent on the last week before Christmas.
One of these years there is going to be an event-- knock wood -- such as a natural disaster, a storm of the century, an attack, something that will glue everyone to the T.V. for a week.
Ironically, this will have a bigger impact on the big stores, instead of stores like mine for which the Christmas season is a boost, but not the be all and end all.
And like I said, the mass market created this dynamic through shortsighted thinking.
**********
I was talking about these kinds of things with a customer the other day, and he mentioned a Discovery show about how it used to cost the equivalent of a house, or something, to get a suit of handmade armor.
Well, sure.
I'm not advocating for a return to the days when everything was handmade.
Like most things in life, I'm advocating moderation. A happy medium. Some kind of balance.
But that's capitalism -- there is no such thing. There are always people who push to the extremes, whether it's in the best interest of the market as a whole or not.
I know this -- and wishing for people to be wise and moderate is just wishful thinking.
(Linda: "yeah, one of those pampered pudgy fat cats with scrunched faces...)
**********
The news of a unemployment rate dropping was tempered by the fact that so many people dropped out of the workforce.
But isn't this a constant? Aren't they always dropping out?
I'm assuming from the news that this was an extraordinary number not a ordinary number of dropouts, but they don't make it very clear.
**********
If I may be a Grinch. The Black Friday sales increase is somewhat of an illusion.
First, for many stores, there is the little matter of cutting margins. (They don't cut margins -- I'm guessing -- as much as they lead the customers to believe, there is some calculation going on there, but....) Higher sales and lower profits just means you have to restock the stores. Or not. Which is why there are shortages, when the stores are in doubt.
Secondly, I think a whole lot of these sales are 'borrowed' from future days. The week after Black Friday is usually dreadfully slow, so slow that you wondered if it doesn't just average out.
**********
It's a bit of a dangerous dynamic that's been created -- by the mass market, and we small stores have to fall in line.
We have become very dependent on the last week before Christmas.
One of these years there is going to be an event-- knock wood -- such as a natural disaster, a storm of the century, an attack, something that will glue everyone to the T.V. for a week.
Ironically, this will have a bigger impact on the big stores, instead of stores like mine for which the Christmas season is a boost, but not the be all and end all.
And like I said, the mass market created this dynamic through shortsighted thinking.
**********
I was talking about these kinds of things with a customer the other day, and he mentioned a Discovery show about how it used to cost the equivalent of a house, or something, to get a suit of handmade armor.
Well, sure.
I'm not advocating for a return to the days when everything was handmade.
Like most things in life, I'm advocating moderation. A happy medium. Some kind of balance.
But that's capitalism -- there is no such thing. There are always people who push to the extremes, whether it's in the best interest of the market as a whole or not.
I know this -- and wishing for people to be wise and moderate is just wishful thinking.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Downtown Comings and Goings.
Topolino has moved into the Azu spot, and a new business, What Lola Wants has moved into their spot.
I'm taking off Andre's Dance Club until I get confirmation that such a place is going to open.
NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN
What Lola Wants, Wall St. , 12/2/11.
Jackalope Grill, 10/12/11.
Gypsy Soul, Wall St. 10/12/11.
Colour N' the City, Tin Pan Alley, 10/12/11.
Lotus Moon, Brooks St., 10/12/11.
The Lobby, Bond St. , 10/12/11.
Ruby, Minnesota Ave., 10, 12/11.
Kariella, Lava Road, 8/24, 11.
Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(List begun, Fall, 2008.)
BUSINESSES LEAVING
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 10/11.
Azu, Wall St., 10/25/11.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Av., 10/11.
Bourbon St., Minnesota Ave. 10/12/11.
Curiosity Shop, Minnesota Ave., 7/11
Luluemon, Bond St., 8/26, 11.
Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(List begun, Fall 2008.)
I'm taking off Andre's Dance Club until I get confirmation that such a place is going to open.
NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN
What Lola Wants, Wall St. , 12/2/11.
Jackalope Grill, 10/12/11.
Gypsy Soul, Wall St. 10/12/11.
Colour N' the City, Tin Pan Alley, 10/12/11.
Lotus Moon, Brooks St., 10/12/11.
The Lobby, Bond St. , 10/12/11.
Ruby, Minnesota Ave., 10, 12/11.
Kariella, Lava Road, 8/24, 11.
Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(List begun, Fall, 2008.)
BUSINESSES LEAVING
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 10/11.
Azu, Wall St., 10/25/11.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Av., 10/11.
Bourbon St., Minnesota Ave. 10/12/11.
Curiosity Shop, Minnesota Ave., 7/11
Luluemon, Bond St., 8/26, 11.
Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
(List begun, Fall 2008.)
Trust your instincts and think for yourself.
Easy to say, hard to do.
A major task of a small business owner is to compensate for the stupidity and shortsightedness of those higher up the food chain.
When I started, I had an assumption that those bigger and richer than me were somehow smarter and more savvy and experienced.
It took way too long for me to realized the fallacy of that notion.
Watching the card companies disappear, one by one. Watching Marvel go bankrupt. Watching one publisher after another fail. Watching my banks get bought up, once, twice, trice. Watching the comic industry shrink to one supplier. And on and on.
It now doesn't surprise me at all that the local city officials make boneheaded decisions; and it certainly was no revelation that the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street are a bunch of shortsighted, greedy pricks.
I now carefully watch my bigger brothers to see what direction they're headed and if I think they are going off the rails, I start to look for ways to compensate for their decisions.
You can't wait until it's obvious, or until someone tells you to. This is the kind of thing you have to think of yourself, and have enough faith in your own reasoning to make decisions.
So idiotic as I think it is for comic and book companies to rush into the digital publishing realm. (Have they figured out that -- if they succeed -- creators won't need them anymore?) I have to recognize the trends and adjust accordingly.
Way back in 1992, I made the decision -- at a time when sports cards were 85% of my sales -- to get out of them. To stop buying directly in large quantities at discounts. To stop trading and buying off the street. To stop selling singles and sets and boxes. And so on.
Every time I made a hundred bucks selling cards, I spent 20% to keep the cards going, and diverted 80% into other product.
No one else I knew made those decisions. And none of them are around anymore.
So I just keep trying to make these decisions on my own, trusting in my instincts.
A major task of a small business owner is to compensate for the stupidity and shortsightedness of those higher up the food chain.
When I started, I had an assumption that those bigger and richer than me were somehow smarter and more savvy and experienced.
It took way too long for me to realized the fallacy of that notion.
Watching the card companies disappear, one by one. Watching Marvel go bankrupt. Watching one publisher after another fail. Watching my banks get bought up, once, twice, trice. Watching the comic industry shrink to one supplier. And on and on.
It now doesn't surprise me at all that the local city officials make boneheaded decisions; and it certainly was no revelation that the Masters of the Universe on Wall Street are a bunch of shortsighted, greedy pricks.
I now carefully watch my bigger brothers to see what direction they're headed and if I think they are going off the rails, I start to look for ways to compensate for their decisions.
You can't wait until it's obvious, or until someone tells you to. This is the kind of thing you have to think of yourself, and have enough faith in your own reasoning to make decisions.
So idiotic as I think it is for comic and book companies to rush into the digital publishing realm. (Have they figured out that -- if they succeed -- creators won't need them anymore?) I have to recognize the trends and adjust accordingly.
Way back in 1992, I made the decision -- at a time when sports cards were 85% of my sales -- to get out of them. To stop buying directly in large quantities at discounts. To stop trading and buying off the street. To stop selling singles and sets and boxes. And so on.
Every time I made a hundred bucks selling cards, I spent 20% to keep the cards going, and diverted 80% into other product.
No one else I knew made those decisions. And none of them are around anymore.
So I just keep trying to make these decisions on my own, trusting in my instincts.
Working in (and on) the margins.
I worried as I took more time off over the last year that I would lose connection to the store.
I don't think that is going to happen.
I've learned that, without being totally conscious of it, I was pacing myself when I was working full-time. I knew that opening at 11:00 instead of 10:00 had been a huge deal. I knew that stringing days off together mattered, instead of having them interspersed through the week. I'll probably never again let my employees dictate MY hours: I'll either hire enough part-timers or have employees who work the hours I want.
Working less days has been nice. But on the days I do work, I'm working much harder. I'm not sure the energy expenditure is diminished as much as I would have thought. I find myself going to the store on my day's off to finish some of the tasks I haven't competed.
Anyway, the store is always going to be a challenge. That is never going to change. I'm always going to need to be plugged in.
Just in the last two years, the rise of the digital and e-book has created a whole new set of problems to deal with.
My answer to this is to continue to diversify, to move to the margins -- as it were. Up until now, I've had the benefit of comics and graphic novels being half of my business. More or less solid and reliable and with a profit margin that stayed somewhat constant. I'm not sure I can count on that forever, as each comic company announces 'digital' initiatives.
The other half of my business was already made up of product that were "sidelines" if you will. Sports cards and non-sports cards, manga and anime, toys, games (role-laying, collectible card games, and boardgames), new and used books. I look for niches in each of these categories that I can exploit. Either better margins, or specialized knowledge and selection, or simply having them when no one else carries them.
I went into euro-style boardgames with full knowledge that they might eventually hit a tipping point and appear in the chainstores at discount prices. (In fact, I'm a little surprised it hasn't happened quicker.) I went into new books with full knowledge of the challenges from the mass market, the big chain bookstores, and Amazon. (Though I didn't really see e-books coming on so strong.)
But I can make these product lines work in the margins -- and also get better margins in the buying process. The "margins" is a pun for both the placement of the product and the prices I pay.
I'm guessing that I'll need to deal with a slow erosion of sales in comics, graphic novels and books, as the e-world gets bigger. There may be compensations, such as decreased competition (hard to see how Barnes and Noble can be in it for the long run). But basically, I'll need to make each of the margins I'm currently getting improve to compensate for e-book incursions. This isn't going to all happen immediately; but the time to deal with it is now.
My New book sales are still increasing -- because I'm getting more and more and better books and displaying them better.
I look at the products I have in stock, and I'm pretty confident that I can keep adjusting, keep responding to which products are selling at the moment, to keep sales above my break-even point. Or increase my profit margins by being selective and efficient, which the longer I do it, the more I become.
Finally, I'm really having fun bringing in new books. The more I do it, the more I feel comfortable taking chances on new titles. I'm carrying best-sellers more than before, such as Stephen King's 11/22/63 or The Night Circus; because I'm figuring out how to do it.
My new book section is like a new toy, and I'm really enjoying making it work. And that too is keeping me engaged in my business.
My budget is constructed so that there is enough of a margin that I take home the same amount of pay whether sales are strong or weak. (If they got super weak, they might change -- but probably not even then, since I can adjust other things.) (If they got super strong, I might put more money into savings.)
All that usually happens is either I buy more stuff or less.
So my focus has been on making the store something that I can be proud of.
I don't think that is going to happen.
I've learned that, without being totally conscious of it, I was pacing myself when I was working full-time. I knew that opening at 11:00 instead of 10:00 had been a huge deal. I knew that stringing days off together mattered, instead of having them interspersed through the week. I'll probably never again let my employees dictate MY hours: I'll either hire enough part-timers or have employees who work the hours I want.
Working less days has been nice. But on the days I do work, I'm working much harder. I'm not sure the energy expenditure is diminished as much as I would have thought. I find myself going to the store on my day's off to finish some of the tasks I haven't competed.
Anyway, the store is always going to be a challenge. That is never going to change. I'm always going to need to be plugged in.
Just in the last two years, the rise of the digital and e-book has created a whole new set of problems to deal with.
My answer to this is to continue to diversify, to move to the margins -- as it were. Up until now, I've had the benefit of comics and graphic novels being half of my business. More or less solid and reliable and with a profit margin that stayed somewhat constant. I'm not sure I can count on that forever, as each comic company announces 'digital' initiatives.
The other half of my business was already made up of product that were "sidelines" if you will. Sports cards and non-sports cards, manga and anime, toys, games (role-laying, collectible card games, and boardgames), new and used books. I look for niches in each of these categories that I can exploit. Either better margins, or specialized knowledge and selection, or simply having them when no one else carries them.
I went into euro-style boardgames with full knowledge that they might eventually hit a tipping point and appear in the chainstores at discount prices. (In fact, I'm a little surprised it hasn't happened quicker.) I went into new books with full knowledge of the challenges from the mass market, the big chain bookstores, and Amazon. (Though I didn't really see e-books coming on so strong.)
But I can make these product lines work in the margins -- and also get better margins in the buying process. The "margins" is a pun for both the placement of the product and the prices I pay.
I'm guessing that I'll need to deal with a slow erosion of sales in comics, graphic novels and books, as the e-world gets bigger. There may be compensations, such as decreased competition (hard to see how Barnes and Noble can be in it for the long run). But basically, I'll need to make each of the margins I'm currently getting improve to compensate for e-book incursions. This isn't going to all happen immediately; but the time to deal with it is now.
My New book sales are still increasing -- because I'm getting more and more and better books and displaying them better.
I look at the products I have in stock, and I'm pretty confident that I can keep adjusting, keep responding to which products are selling at the moment, to keep sales above my break-even point. Or increase my profit margins by being selective and efficient, which the longer I do it, the more I become.
Finally, I'm really having fun bringing in new books. The more I do it, the more I feel comfortable taking chances on new titles. I'm carrying best-sellers more than before, such as Stephen King's 11/22/63 or The Night Circus; because I'm figuring out how to do it.
My new book section is like a new toy, and I'm really enjoying making it work. And that too is keeping me engaged in my business.
My budget is constructed so that there is enough of a margin that I take home the same amount of pay whether sales are strong or weak. (If they got super weak, they might change -- but probably not even then, since I can adjust other things.) (If they got super strong, I might put more money into savings.)
All that usually happens is either I buy more stuff or less.
So my focus has been on making the store something that I can be proud of.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Banks are our friends. .... .... .... ....what?
Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley is suing five of the nation's biggest banks: "Our suit alleges that the banks have charted a destructive path by cutting corners and rushing to foreclose on homeowners without following the rule of law." Huffington Post, 12/1/11.
I remember way back when a mountain of foreclosures looked like they were about to fall on our heads, I asked: What was to keep the Banks from playing this? Holding back properties they wanted, dumping others, delaying and hurrying, using their clout to bully and so on?
Good old RDC, who has never seen a corporation he doesn't like, said, Oh, no, they will have to follow proper procedures, the rule of law.
Heh.
What say you now, RDC?
I remember way back when a mountain of foreclosures looked like they were about to fall on our heads, I asked: What was to keep the Banks from playing this? Holding back properties they wanted, dumping others, delaying and hurrying, using their clout to bully and so on?
Good old RDC, who has never seen a corporation he doesn't like, said, Oh, no, they will have to follow proper procedures, the rule of law.
Heh.
What say you now, RDC?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
