Friday, November 5, 2010

The sea is calm, the sea is stormy.

I think this may be the widest divergence between what I read in the news and what I see in my own store I've ever seen.

I know from the sportscard business, that this can go on for a long time without being exposed as hogwash. I know that what matters is what my cash register says, not what so-called experts say in the media. But it seems to me, that for the moment, the 'good' news is predominating.

There is an equal amount of bad news out there, if you're looking. But it's not being played up the way the good news is; a little bit in reverse of what it was a little while back. Always interesting to read the media narrative -- the ocean of news, stirred up, washing on shore. Does the media choose to see the breaking whitewater, or the calm midday seas?

It's a deep wide sea, and there will be a storm on one shore, and tropical warmth on another. The economy and the news about the economy are like the weather -- predictable in it's unpredictability.

Doesn't matter. What matter is what I'm seeing, and what I'm feeling, and my instinct is that we next year won't be much improvement. I mean there were declines that were more severe in 2007, and 2008, but they were due more to the shocks to the system. This is more like systemic shock, if you catch the distinction.

I know that I need to remain careful, and conserve my energy and cash, so that when this all plays out, the store will be in a relatively strong position. I just think next January through June of next year are going to be a lot like this fall -- that's always been my experience. I know from the track record that January, February, March, April and May are usually a mirror image of September, October, and November -- indeed, usually a little lower.

Some locals, like Deschutes Brewery, are obviously betting that things have at least leveled off, if not improved. I recently talked to a downtown business owner who just had their best October ever. And I admit that I could be wrong, or that what I'm seeing is affecting only my business, for whatever reasons.

But as I mentioned in the earlier entry today, I can always order more if need be. I prefer to wait and see.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Seems to me, your perceptions on the economy will be spot-on. Books (and graphic novels in particular), are a perfect indicator of 'disposable' money. If I'm feeling somewhat flush, and I have some pocket change, I buy a new book (or graphic novel, which typically runs more than the average paperback). If I'm strapped, I go to the library, where the selection is much worse, but I can find something that will entertain me for much less.

Books, in my mind, fall somewhere between non-discretionary and discretionary spending. Most people read. Not everyone who reads buy what they read. Unless they can afford it.