Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Mental health tip.

Here's a suggestion.

Quit calling the bottom.

Quit using the word recovery.

It's going to drive you crazy. Especially in Bend, because it's going to take us even longer to get there.

It will happen when it happens. Better to be pleasantly surprised than to be constantly disappointed.

I noticed this article in CNN Money, and agree with it totally. Except -- like I said -- I think Bend is probably a couple years out, and not reaching a new top but just starting back up.


Stores won't buy into rebound talk
Retail insiders are betting that it could be 12 to 18 months before consumer spending returns to pre-recession levels.
By Parija B. Kavilanz, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: May 5, 2009: 3:06 PM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- You can't sell the nation's retailers on the idea that the economy will rebound soon.

Despite some economists' forecasts that the recession could be over by the end of summer, industry watchers say merchants are betting that it's going to be 12 to 18 months before consumer spending gets even close to pre-recession levels.

That's significant because no real rebound in the economy is possible without a pick-up in consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic growth.

"Anyone who thinks that consumers will return to carefree shopping by September, you have to wonder what they're smoking," said Paco Underhill, an expert on consumer psychology and CEO of retail-focused consulting form Envirosell.

Slashing orders: Merchants have dramatically slashed their orders for new merchandise that they expect to sell in the summer and later this year.
0:00 /3:26The recovery is near

One sign of that, February's volume of retail imports -- such as clothes, shoes and home furnishings -- dropped to the lowest level in seven years, according to the latest Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and forecasting firm Global Insight.

Import volume for March is expected to be down 19.7% from a year earlier, with April 22% lower, the report said.

Retailers typically order new goods six to eight months in advance of when they expect to sell the products in stores. Declining orders indicate that sellers don't see a pick-up in sales in the coming months.

Craig Shearman, NRF's vice president for government affairs, agreed.

"The retail import volume is a leading indicator of how much retailers think they can sell," Shearman said. "So a lower amount [of volume] is a clear indication that retailers think sales will be down in the spring and summer."

Recovery in 2010? Retail buyers, professionals who help stores select and buy merchandise, are bracing for a tough year.

Although Underhill expects improvement in housing starts and consumer lending by the fall, he cautions that no one should expect consumers "will party like it's 1999."

"It will be another year before spending truly picks up," he said.

"I've talked to fellow buyers and some have cut [orders] by more than half," said Andy Beauchamp, found of the National Association of Retail Buyers, a non-profit buyers' networking group that lists Macy's (M, Fortune 500) among its members.

Because of the economic uncertainty, Beauchamp said some buyers have stopped importing certain items and turned to domestic vendors to better manage inventory levels.

"I was a junior buyer in the 1980s and I remember that it took 18 months before I saw strength come back in spending," he said. "Even after 9/11, it took nine months before confidence returned and people were spending well again."

Experts don't expect consumers to come back to stores on a spree. "Our retail culture is in a major transition. Conspicuous consumption is now bad manners," Underhill said.

But if there is a big consumer comeback, the stores may be out of luck.

"A friend of mine who is a senior buyer for Macy's is terrified," said Beauchamp. "She's being told to keep inventory low. So what happens if sales pick up in the fourth quarter and she has nothing to sell?"

"Usually in a strong economy, vendors can ramp up production quickly and turnaround a new order in 10 days," Beauchamp said. "But the economy has made vendors cautious and many don't have the resources to do such a fast turnaround."

Besides the big chain stores, Main Street mom-and-pop sellers are also "ordering products very close to their need," said Ed Butler, founder of the Butler Group, which represents wholesale manufacturers and importers of gift and home decor items.

"Their orders are running about 20% less than last year," Butler said. "I think this level will continue in the second half of the year."

"We don't see a change [in spending levels] until the first quarter of 2010," Butler said.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Dunc,
This mother isn't getting off the tip of the hockey stick for at least 2 1/2 years. Sounds like you read many of the same sites that I do concerning the economy.
The pooch is screwed.
As the dog said, about Bend, it will not return to the good old Bend that we once loved. I don't know what it will be in a few years but I am willing to stay and hope (without Koolaide) that we who choose to stay will continue to enjoy all of the things that brought us to this high desert.
I didn't come for the skiing, not the biking, not the hiking nor the rock climbing, no, not the wind surfing or water skiing, jet skiing, damn, not the spelunking, caving, gps contests, indoor tennis at THE club, not kayaking or canoeing, golf, short growing season, horse trail riding, pretty much anything COVA hawks as a real turn on.
I landed here to escape concrete, asphalt, long commutes and bad air. I have and will always be enamored by the mountain views (not from my house) the clean air, good well water, a few friendly folks at Eriksons that still know my name, the folks that didn't know me from Eve and helped me move into my first house. All of that still exists here in poor old Bend. I have since discovered the lakes and rivers within minutes of town and bathed in thier clear and clean waters. I have found myself here. I have found numerous special places that the age hens crow in the early hours and old stills in the desert. The time I spent moving cattle from Powell Butte to West Butte and then to Horse Ridge and beyond included historical sites, majical sites where folks a hundred years ago traveled. Bend has been very good for my heart and for a few years, good for my pocket book. I can be happy here for a very long time.
I will not be going anywhere for the time being.