Sunday, September 23, 2007

For once, I didn't find that much to quibble about in the two articles in the business section of the Bulletin today.

First off, after reading papers in other towns lately, I still think both the Bulletin and the Source are exceptional newspapers. You just have to be aware of their quirks.

With the Bulletin, I usually add about 50% value to the negative aspects, and subtract about 50% from the positive, and that lends an answer that is close to what I think is happening. With the Source, I just ignore all the trendy crap and mine it for real news. I love the snark, and I think they're a bit more willing to tell the unvarnished truth.

The biggest problem, as usual, is the headline: "Economy endures the housing slump." If you read the article, there is a big caveat. The headline should continue......" So Far."

Money is disappearing out of the local economy, whether a person loses their 40 hour a week job, or whether two employees lose their 20 hours a week of overtime. (More actually.) I suspect there are way more undocumented employees than anyone is admitting. And with housing starts so low, I don't believe the companies are going to stay fully staffed forever. And my favorite bugaboo: why does anyone think that commercial building will save the day? In my opinion, because commercial building is so much more expensive and has such a long lead time, that people are going to lose even more money in that sector. It's just going to take longer.

The comments from retailers were 'damning with faint praise', I thought. And as far as electric and plumbing and other skilled labor positions -- they've never had enough of those, so I expect them to be the last to drop employees.

The other really noticeable thing in all these articles (and I see it in conversations in my store as well) is how layoffs and slowdowns are always happening to 'the other guy.' Not one construction outfit says its happening to them, but all of them say they 'know someone.'

Very suspicious.

Another undercurrent was that bidding competition is heating up. The result of that will be lower profits for whoever wins the bids. Irony being that those who are most responsible will lose bids to those who are most suicidally competitive.

At any rate, this is so early in the downturn, that no one should take too much comfort in the fact that the consequences haven't been dire.....so far.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

At any rate, this is so early in the downturn, that no one should take too much comfort in the fact that the consequences haven't been dire.....so far.
*
Thanks duncan, for repeating. The perpetual optimists are always saying "If things we're going to shit, how comes its still so good?"

We're so very very early in this bubble first year, of a 5-7 year correction.

It's going to go very slow.

Lastly, a recession is when somebody you know lost his job, a depression is when you lost your job.

Everyone knows that Bend is headed into a recession, the depression inflection point will occur sometime in the next 5+ years.