Tuesday, May 5, 2020

So my original concern was being closed. It was more costly than I expected, even without rent and wages. Still, I saw that we could probably handle a couple of months of being closed. The money spent on fixed expenses was gone forever, which isn't pleasant, but we could make it through. Three months starts to get harder: four months or more would inflict severe damage.

Despite this, I spent a good chunk of money on new flooring. I did this because I felt the store was an ongoing effort and we would eventually pay for it through expanded display space. Plus, it just needed to be done.

Now my concern is how business is going to be after we come back. I think it's best to plan for the worse. The economy is going to be in dire straights, I think.

It's very hard to spend one's spending habits. A retailer by nature is an optimist, I believe. You have to think you're going to sell stuff that you order. It's hard to step out of current spending habits. You have to take a step back, act as a different person--the cautious pessimist.

In the past downturns I'd always react too slowly and in too limited a way. What you don't want to do is follow the curve downward.

For instance, expecting and ordering for the 10% drop but having a 20% drop; thereby you adjust to a 20% drop but by the time the product shows up, it's a 30% drop; so you order for a 35% drop, thinking you're getting smarter, and you get a 40% drop.

And so on. Losing money all the way.

On the other hand--there is always the danger of creating a self-fulling prophecy; that you'll create lower sales by being too stingy. In fact, in many cases I think stores have over-reacted. Once burned, they become too cautious. If you follow the curve exactly, you are probably creating the very thing you want to avoid. Customers have a sixth sense of when you aren't ordering enough.

I think we'll have a month or so after opening where being cautious won't be punished by the customers. Hopefully, we can get a good gauge of what we need to do.

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