Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Are people really "salivating" over Trader Joe's and the Pottery Barn? Wow. If so, that is one of those mysteries in life, like reality shows or monster trucks, that I simply don't get.

The following are educated guesses and assumptions, folks.

Bend became a "Metro Area" a few years ago, which if memory serves, means that we got to 50,000 population, plus another 50,000 within a short distance. When that happened, we popped up on the radar of every single major chain store in the country. These stores have to show their shareholders constant growth in sales, and probably the best way to do that is to keep opening stores. It doesn't seem to matter if a single store earns, say, 100 million but two stores earn 85 million each, as long as they can point to the extra 70 million in sales. Of course, they have to justify it, and they probably do that by cutting costs, so I'm assuming that if the one store had 20 employees, that the two stores have 35 employees between them, and one less floor polishing machine, and they close at midnight instead of being open all night, etc. Wall Street supposedly looks to 'same store' sales as the real mark of success or failure.

Sales aren't profits. Still, can't hurt to have bigger and bigger sales, can it?

Of course, some of these stores see Bend a comin' sooner. I'd be willing to bet, for instance, that ShopKo's modus operandi is to be the first one in. Some of these stores come in despite their own standards; I remember reading an interview with the Pier One folks, who were quoted as saying firmly that Bend really didn't have the characteristics for one of their stores.....yet they came in maybe a year later. It's almost as if there is a panic stampede on the part of the mass market. Wait, says Office Max, Bend has gotten a Staples, though our statistics say that it won't support one. What do they know, we don't know?

The gist of the Bulletin article today, 'TRADER JOE'S RUMORS HAVE US SALIVATING -- FOR MORE STORES," was that Bend was different, what with all the rich folk and tourists, and that stores needed to be coaxed into coming to an area that -- based on population alone -- wouldn't ordinarily warrent it.

Good sales job. And of course, once the Old Mill has actually talked some national chain into coming in, there is a good chance they'll stay, even if sales don't quite pan out. Again, I'm assuming that the Old Mill guys are making deals; making sure that they time the visits for summer, or on a brightly lit Christmas season evening, they say: "Come to Bend and look at the Old Mill; isn't it pretty? Drive around town, isn't it bustling? Visit the old downtown, isn't it quaint? Never mind those pesky population statistics....we're different!"

But if you analize that, it is chasing your own tail. "We're different! Why? Because we're different!"

My own theory is, we could end up with as many stores as Eugene and Salem, with half the population. Think of it this way; the chainstores enter into any new metro area with a basic model store. To open a second store, they need for the population to grow say, 2.5 times to warrent the expense. Therefore Bend, Eugene and Salem end up with the same number of chainstores.

A few years ago, again if memory serves, there was an article that Bend was the second most over-retailed market in America, behind Las Vegas. Makes me wonder where we stand now?

I threw up my hands in dismay five years ago, so what is happening now just bemuses me.

2 comments:

Jen said...

When I lived in the Valley, I frequently shopped at TJ's. There are still a few products that I miss (like "2 buck Chuck" before the guests arrive). But I have found equivalent (or better) products shopping around Bend. As far as specialty grocery is concerned I definitely prefer Newport Market - and they will special order almost anything available if it's not in the store.

Jennifer (ponderosa) said...

What Jen said. It's a sad state of affairs if what makes people salivate is the chance to buy stuff from a chain store.

What we could really use is a good sledding hill near Bend. If I heard the FS was setting aside a parking lot just for kids' sledding, then I'd salivate : )