Adamantly wrong.

It's amazing how wrongly certain (certainly wrong?) people can be about things.

When I first started investigating self-publishing it became clear from the start that there were two camps, and that both were absolutely certain they were right and the other side was wrong.

There are the those who think only traditional publishing is valid, and those who think self-publishing is the only way to go. As the owner of a bookstore and a writer with some experience at traditional publishing, it placed me in a weird position.

Before I talk about publishing, I should talk about book sales. The two subjects are obviously connected.

As a bookstore owner, I probably shouldn't like Amazon. Then again, I had decided long ago that the Internet was not my enemy--or maybe more to the point, that there was nothing I could do about it. I've always been more upset by the mass market chain stores. They seem to have more of an effect on the bottomline than Amazon. The way I put it is--the Internet takes the extra click. Those willing to make the extra click online are going to do so no matter what I say. But a bricks and mortar store is direct competition. We are competing for the same available dollar.

But if you go back and read early blog entries by me, I was certainly anti-Amazon. I had my arguments based on what I thought was common sense--but those arguments didn't have any real data to back them up.

That's probably the biggest problem with trying to decide which side is right. The information is exclusive to the various outlets, so I'm just trying to guess from the outside.

One mistake I constantly make is to underestimate Big Numbers. I simply can't wrap my head around them. For instance, Linda worked at Barnes and Noble for awhile (it was horrible) and when she came home and told me how much they were making per day I just couldn't figure it out. I had a pretty good sense of how the four indie stores that existed before B & N came to town were doing--roughly, and all combined, it wasn't but a fraction of the sales that the big store was doing.

Were all these customers simply not buying books before? (This was before Amazon was quite so big.) I'm still puzzled by that.

So, basically, I'm always underestimating how well the bigger players are doing.

As a writer, I am a big proponent of Amazon. They give you 70% of the proceeds. Believe me, that's rare. As a store owner, I would kill for a supplier who would give me 55% or 60% much less 70%.  My overall average wholesale rate is 60% of the price. Less than that and I don't survive

Amazon also makes it extremely easy to self-publish. You don't have to pay ANYTHING to get a book--you just have to do the editing and cover art and formatting yourself, but any writer who spends a little time can figure that out. That is utterly amazing.

Even the physical copies you buy only cost what they cost to publish, and usually can be had at about 40% of the final sale price. If you want 10 copies, you can get 10 copies. If you want a 100 copies, you only pay for 100 copies.

Unlike what used to be called "Vanity Press" which made you publish hundreds if not thousands at a not so good price. When I tell people in my store to publish their book on Amazon, they don't get it. They are still stuck in the past where self-publishing really was a "Vanity" experience.

That said, I tried self-publishing myself and didn't get anywhere. I then hooked up with smaller specialty publishers and this was much better. I simply don't know how to promote myself and needed someone else's platform to make any headway.

At the same time, the smaller publishers usually don't distribute in bookstores and when they do, they are usually crushed. (This happened to two of my publishers.)

By way of Google searching it became clear that some writers do extremely well at self-publishing. (There are also, alas, a whole lot of lying liars--which is strange, because it's possible to actually check their rankings and realize they are full of bullshit.)

The romance genre for instance is full of writers who sell big numbers. (Just take a look at the self-published best-seller lists and I swear that half the books have bare-chested guys on the cover. Really, I'm not kidding.) These people know how to promote--they do the research and the work and the experimentation.

The learning curve has become steeper over the last couple years. Many of the tricks at gaming the Amazon algorithms have stopped working. Loopholes are being closed. The early gold rush has matured and it's much much harder to get noticed.

So there are big problems with self-publishing, and yet also big success.

The exact same thing can be said about traditional publishing. I'm not going into as much detail about what problems there are there, but it basically evens out.

In other words, both camps are both right and wrong, depending.

And ain't that always the way?

What's amusing to me is how in both camps there are people who spout nonsense.

Anyway, this has become clear again with BookBub. I'm pretty sure that it is the rare writer who doesn't benefit from BookBub. Many see huge increases in sales. I certainly saw a big boost and I'm as happy as could be about it.

And yet...and yet...there are bunches of writers who think it doesn't work (despite all the evidence) or who take a stand against discounting. Much of this is sour grapes.

But mostly, they are just wrong--and very adamant about it.

The writing is the thing.

I'm back to walking consistently, but not so much the writing. An entire month has gone by without much production. I finished a chapter of "Ruby Red and the Robot" a few hundred words at a time over 4 days. I've decided to finish it, even if it only turns out to be a novella. Straight to the ending--which isn't a bad policy in any case.

Meanwhile, I've yet to find a good solid 4 mile path at my new walking spot. It is much busier out there than my old spot, but I think I can avoid most of that. But so far, I haven't found a path long enough to make it a round-tripper. But at the same time, I'm exploring.

Redmond is a few degrees warmer than Bend, but that few degrees seems to make a difference. Snow in Bend a couple of days ago, but none in Redmond.

I'm still monitoring the BookBub boost. After the initial three day boost, it started dropping fast for three days, then seemed to settle into a range that, while much lower than the start, is also much higher than my normal numbers. I had no idea whether the promotion had any legs at all, so as far as I'm concerned, this last week has been a bonus.  (Actually, I described that backward--the lower the ranking the better, but I used the opposite...so as not to confuse...?)

I'm feeling a sort of success letdown, if you know what I mean. Accomplishing a goal and then finding myself sort of taking a step back. It's a weird reaction. Of course, "success" is relative. I mean, the increase in sales only pointed out how solid the big authors have a hold on the upper tiers. Like any other artistic endeavor, I suppose.

I've been making steady but slow progress, so I'm thankful for that.

I just need to keep reminding myself, the writing is the thing.

Found a new walking spot.

I found a new walking spot about 7 minutes from the house. My usual walking spot is about 15 minutes out, which means burning a couple of gallons of gas everyday. Add that to the regular drives into "the city" Bend, I was filling up the car every week instead of every month as I was used to.

Anyway, I wouldn't quite call this walk in "nature," as the occasional dumped sofa or pile of tires remind me. (What is wrong with people?) But my regular spot isn't pristine either. The main goal is to get out under the open sky, take in the sun and the wind and the fresh air, bathe in the trees and rocks, and most importantly, the solitude.

The solitude fuels the writing. At home there are constant distractions and temptations--Panga and Linda, the TV, books, and most distracting of all, the Internet.

I need to find a place were I'm extremely unlikely to run into people. (Maybe 1% of the time?) Thing is, I'm an introvert and if I think it is likely I'll run into another person at all, I have a certain amount of guardedness, or a mask, if you will.

Being completely alone--to the level of actually being able to talk to myself if need be--is what gives me the psychic space to create.

To find 100% solitude and real nature requires a drive of at least an hour, and even then I'm almost as likely to run into an intrepid nature goer.

Anyway, I suspect I'll probably still go to my usual spot 15 miles away because I have clearly marked "writing posts" where I can sit every quarter mile or so and write a few hundred words. And I don't have to think about where I'm going. (These high desert dirt roads are a maze, let me tell you.)

But when I want a quick walk and don't want to spend half an hour driving, this new place will do.

It feels good to get back to it. (So far, the walking, but I'm hoping the writing will follow...

Beware progression.

So at this moment of best results, I'm suddenly less confident instead of more.

I think it's because my expectations are now higher.

Here's something I know about myself. I operate much, much better as an underdog. Of course, in the grand scheme of things, I'm still an underdog. BookBub was great, but the effect will wear off. But still, now I'm having doubts about myself. Weird.

At one point, I had actually put "Deadfall Ridge" in my Maybe ledger. It was only after the final rewrite that it moved into the Definitely Publish ledger. Make me wonder if I've been wrong about some of my other Maybe books and vice versa.

See...I'm thinking too much about it.

I find myself trying to decide what to do next--which has never really been a problem before because I just did whatever I felt like without regard to strategy. I have to think this policy has worked up to now.

Really, it probably doesn't matter. I'm fatalistic---or realistic--about chances of success as a writer. It has too much to do with things I have no control over. So I wish I could go back to my original impulses.

Hell, I spent an entire year writing books without submitting anywhere. That was a glory time, in some ways. It was pure writing.

Bookstore visits.

Did my little local bookstore circuit that I do once in awhile. Dropping in and talking to some of the owners.

It's very different than it used to be. Up until recently, the owners of local stores weren't particularly friendly toward me. I don't know if they just didn't like me or thought I was a threat or thought my store was beneath them.

But the current crop of booksellers are all friendly. Part of it is that I've survived 36 years in a tough business. I'm more than willing to share my experience, for what it's worth. (I have to be careful not to overdo it or be a know-it-all.) I'd love to save them from some of the mistakes I made.

Anyway, it's always nice to talk about books to simpatico people. It's what I miss most about not being at Pegasus full-time.

My manager, Sabrina, and I sat down yesterday and talked over the year-end results and what to do going forward. I was frankly surprised that we did as well as we did. 8 out of 12 months were below last year, and yet our sales were down only slightly overall. Every category was up except comics.

Even better, I managed to compensate for the drop in that one category by building up the others. This has been long in the planning and execution and worked perfectly.

The store is more or less self-sustaining, due to the inventory, and we need to keep that going. What we'll be focusing on is a budget--more an awareness of budget--I'm a great believer in busting budgets if need be.

This is more an art than a science. When can I stop buying and when should I be buying more? It often isn't reflected by current sales but more of a sense of how much good inventory I have, where the trends are, and how much risk can I take.

 I still really enjoy the challenge.

Year End Results at Pegasus Books.

I've done the year-end figuring on Pegasus Books for 2018.

Every category was up but comics. We were down...just...slightly overall, not so much that it affects us much. And while the monthly comics were down, graphic novels were up significantly.

In May, we expanded the space for graphic novels and books by quite a bit, and that really seemed to spark a resurgence.

I'm especially pleased that games saw a slight increase because suddenly everyone and their uncle are carrying Euro games. Target and B&N and everyone else. For years I was pretty much the only one in town that carried a full line. A game store did come to town, but we were still able to increase sales. But when the big boys start carrying games, then you have to be careful.

I'll try to maintain games at the current level, at least.

Books are doing well, and I'll continue to support and increase them. I'm low on space, as usual, but there is still room to grow.

Card games did pretty good, mostly because I supported them fully, carrying every release of Magic that was affordable.

Graphic novels really kicked in almost from the day we expanded our display space for them. We basically went from no covers face-out to a quarter of the store face-out. It looks better and highlights the graphic novels much better. Plus we have room to keep expanding for once. When I say that comics are down, this doesn't include graphic novels, which are climbing.

Toys are hit and miss. I can really only afford to carry them when they are on sale. So I grab them when they drop in price. That seems to work pretty well.

So overall, I'm pretty pleased with the results. The increases in all categories almost completely covered the drop in comic sales, as planned. We're still well into the black. As long as I continue to pack the store with product, I think we'll thrive.

Best of all, I can continue to pay my manager, Sabrina, and my weekend guy, Dylan--and continue to write!

New Year, same as the Old Year

My resolution isn't so much to start anything (or stop anything) new, but to simply do what I've been doing for the last six years.

Writing and walking. Walking and writing.

My pace has slowed down, partly because I've accomplished so much. I could continue on at that pace, but to what end? I'm thinking it's time to slow down, to give each book some breathing room, especially after the first draft is written.

Deadfall Ridge is a great example of that. I finished it and sent it off to a publisher--didn't hear back from him, so had some second thoughts and tried to spice the book up and sent that version off--then didn't hear back, and so then combined the best of both versions. This last version was by far the best.

Fortunately, I also found the right publisher. The original publisher left me hanging. What's ironic to me is that my book is currently nestled between two of that publisher's books in the rankings. Wonder if he noticed.

Crossroad has done right by me and I'm glad I could send it to them.

A couple of lessons there. I shouldn't send off a book until it's ready, and I need to give myself time to think about it.

Thing is, I often don't get these second thoughts until after I've committed. It's like the actual commitment is what triggers the re-evaluation.

So not sure how to get around that.