I predicted a train wreck. If only I wasn't in the train.

Last week wasn't probably the best time to take a vacation, but then again, when you own a business, there probably isn't a good time. It's always going to be inconvenient to some extent.

Anyway, last week was the first week of Penguin Random House shipping Marvel comics. Based on my book orders I was predicting that it would probably not be good. I also had a sense that they were telling us comic retailers what we wanted to hear and then doing things the PRH way anyways. 

Looks like I couldn't have been more spot on.

One more sidenote before I get into it. 

I've always thought that Diamond did a relatively good job of packing comics, all things considered. Maybe because I carry multiple product lines I've always been aware that damages and shortages happen with all distributors. Diamond had (has) a particularly difficult job with comics, which are not only thin, flimsy things, easily damaged, but also have customers who are especially picky about condition. 

The fact that Diamond could have a person who would pick out a single comic and invoice and pack it, to me, was always impressive. They were (are) very good about replacing damages and shortages. They basically take our word for it. 

I keep using the present and past participles for Diamond because, while they still send us most publishers comics, the two largest publishers, Marvel and DC, have gone to new distributors. Marvel and DC represent something like 80% of all comic sales. So you can see how this puts a dent in Diamond. So much so that I worry about them and all the other product I get from them. 

Nevertheless, I can only get DC from one distributor, and while I could continue to get Marvel from Diamond, I would lose a little over 10% in shipping and wholesale savings as well as going from one week payment schedule to 60 days. (While 60 days is harder to keep track of, it does give us a nice safety margin. Though also debt rope to hang myself if not careful.)

Anyway, I predicted a number of problems from PRH. (Especially since the demonization of Diamond made expectations from PRH unrealistically utopian.)

1.) Shipping. Sure enough, the comics came in single flimsy cardboard boxes. Some accounts lost huge percentages of their comics to damage. We got lucky--this week. But the shipping boxes are definitely not going to work and I'm wondering how PRH is going to fix it. I'm holding my breath for next week.

2.) Shortages and Damages. Instead of just taking the retailers' word for it, PRH wants a picture of each damage. Also PRH pretty much said, "Suck it up, sucker" by saying that dings on the corners of comics should be acceptable. Methinks they don't understand the comic collectors! Also, the damages were so extensive that there is no way most replacements are going to be available. 

3.) Accounting. Instead of having one simple invoice with the information we retailers need, they have confusing set of invoices and shipping pages and all manner of other ordering information split into multiple locations and with information that isn't helpful to us retailers. In other words, a dense thicket of info that we have to try to consolidate ourselves.

Anyway, it's a mess. Just one more mess.

So comic retailers are making all kinds of threatening noises--as if they have the power to do anything about it. 

I'm actually wondering if this is worth it to PRH. We are a relatively small industry with relatively high barriers to entry. We have an unruly group of retailers who complain about everything. I wonder if PRH will someday soon say, "To hell with it."

If they don't drop comics completely, I wonder if they'll just make it easier on themselves--for instance, requiring minimum orders of each item.

Finally, I predict that there are retailers out there that were getting less then 50% discounts before PRH gave it to them, who were buying COD or with limited terms from Diamond, who will go hog wild crazy on their ordering. You can build up a lot of debt in 9 weeks of ordering comics without having to pay. This seems to me like a forgone conclusion because--with most comic retailers--you are dealing with wheeler-dealer types who don't always think about the consequences of their ordering gambles. 

I'm actually looking at going back to Diamond. Turns out, my discount from them is 3 percentage points better than they originally offered, plus I have a feeling that my discounts from the other publishers are going to be re-estimated and will probably be based on overall orders. 

It's something to look at. 

Meanwhile, I feel pretty smug in my predictions of a train wreck. If only I wasn't in the train.