Friday, May 20, 2011

Little bits.

Seemed like I had a whole bunch of little bit reactions to the Bulletin this morning. I've already talked about the Typhoon picture. Others:

A little sidebar in the business section that "Home sales decline, confidence dips." This is like the real story, but never mind. There has been a full court press of positive news about the economy lately, but I ain't buying it.

Not much worse, not much better. At least from what I can see in my store.

**********

"Airport Plans Stuck On Taxiway."

Big plans -- like all of Central Oregon organizations. We like our plans big.

Not just a big hotel, but it must be a "three or four stars" hotel.

Um, I not sure that designation is up to you.

**********

"LinkedIn Shares soar...."

Whatever. Tech bubble anyone?

**********

"Treasury Support for Small-Business Lending Yet to Begin."

They should get going around the same time the recession is ending. Heh.

On the same page is a "SBA" Financing ad. I applied for one these once, and got back a stack 3 inches thick of red tape.

********

"Amazon Selling More E-Books Than Print Books."

Get back to me when Amazon is making more MONEY in E-Books than Print....

**********

"County OK's Additional Prosecutor."

Frankly, it sounds like the new district attorney is less than organized. Can't we at least ask him to be organized?

**********

"Redmond Looks to Spur Affordable Housing...."

At the same time, the Bulletin editorial expresses doubt about the fees in Bend for these projects. I think they left out the most ridiculous one; the condo's above the parking garage, that were more expensive than the average home around here.

I wish they would use these funds to help out current homeowners and or prospective buyers, rather than building new housing.

**********

"Police Say They Couldn't Stop Hit-Run Suspect..."

I'm not buying it.

Couldn't they have arrested him for....(ah, hem ignore that sound of breaking glass, ah, hem)...a broken tail light? Something? Anything?

I'm pretty sure they could have. I think they just thought they had discouraged the guy....

**********

"Support for Bend Zip Line Slackens."

Thank god, we still have the water park.

Ummmm....we still do have the water park, don't we?

**********

The picture of Bend's city population sign in 1977. 17, 300 peeps. Less than Redmond, currently. It was such a nice town....

**********

16 comments:

H. Bruce Miller said...

"Get back to me when Amazon is making more MONEY in E-Books than Print."

I don't have access to their books, of course, but I'd bet the profit margin on ebooks is pretty damn high. They sell for only two or three dollars less than paperbacks, the cost of distribution is practically nothing and the cost of printing and binding is nil. The publishers and the retailers should both be making a killing on them.

H. Bruce Miller said...

"I wish they would use these funds to help out current homeowners and or prospective buyers, rather than building new housing."

Ditto that.

RDC said...

Conisdering that Amazon is expected to generate 5.42 billion in Kindle related revenue in 2011, your answer will probably be by the end of this year or early next year at the latest.

RDC said...

Amazon sells most manistream e-books from a major publisher at 9.95. A few dollars more than paperbacks, not less.

H. Bruce Miller said...

RDC: "A few dollars more than paperbacks, not less."

I believe you're mistaken. It's been a long time since I've seen a paperback for less than $9.95. All the ones I see (talking about contemporary ones, not classics) are around $12 to $15.

For example, I just looked up Amazon's prices for Game of Thrones Vol. I. Paperback is $11.56 and Kindle edition is $8.99.

Duncan McGeary said...

It think you have that backward, Bruce. The paperback is 8.99 for Game of Thrones.

RDC said...

Uh mass market paper packs run around 6.99 to 8.99. These are your standard 4x7 inch paperpacks.

Now you might be talking about trade paperpacks. Which tend to cost more.

However, most paperbacks sold are massmarket.

H. Bruce Miller said...

Amazon's quoted price for Game of Thrones Vol. I in paperback is $11.56; their quoted price for the Kindle edition is $8.99. If you don't believe me, check it out: http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_2_22?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=game+of+thrones+book+1&sprefix=game+of+thrones+book+1

H. Bruce Miller said...

RDC: The Association of American Publishers reported in March that mass market paperback sales in January were $39 million and trade paperback sales were $83.6 million. See: http://www.mediabistro.com/galleycat/mass-market-paperback-sales-plunged-30-in-january_b25795

RDC said...

Of course if you look at current numbers.

Mass market is the category most heavily impacted by the e-book market. Thus the title to the article you referenced:

Mass Market Paperback Sales Plunge 30%

According to Association of American Publishers (AAP) sales figures, adult mass market paperback sales plunged nearly 31 percent in January compared to the same period last year. At the same time, adult hardcover sales fell 11 percent.


Try going back prior to the start of the e-book ramp up, let say five years or so and then compare the size of the categories. Most new books are being released as an e-book prior to being released as a mass market paperback. Many trade paperbacks are not released as e-book formats at all (size of publisher, content type, etc) So of course the mass market format has been impacted faster and more significantly.

Also keep in mind that since trade sells for more than mass market. the dollar value does not represent the number of units sold.


Here is an article which describes the current situation very well and also describes the relationship in pricing between trade and mass market formats.

http://ipadtest.wordpress.com/2010/07/20/amazons-numbers-what-they-mean-why-they-matter/

H. Bruce Miller said...

RDC: "Of course if you look at current numbers."

Well, what's the point of looking at old numbers?

But I should have known I'd never get you to admit you were wrong.

RDC said...

The discussion was the economics of e-books.

You indicated that they were priced slightly lower than paperbacks.

I indicated that they were higher than mass market, but might be lower than trade. I also indicated that mass market was the biggest segment.


At the time ebooks was launched they were the largest segment. From the point of view of the relative profitability of ebooks va physical books one must look at where they have made penetration into the market.

The area that they have penetrated the most is mass market paperbacks. As indicated by the rate of shrinkage of that market. That means that for every replace sale their the profitability for both Amazon and the publisher is higher. Your post indicated that ebooks was cheaper than paperbacks and as such were dependant upon the elimination of physical production and shipment and handling costs to be as profitable. That is clearly not true.

RDC said...

If you look at the economics of the transition to e-books.

You have a multitude of elements.
Increase in Revenue

+1. Sale of associated e-book readers
+2. Replacement of mass market paperbacks
+3. Market Expansion

Expense Reduction
+1. Elimination of printing costs for the publisher
+2. Elimination of transportation costs

+3. Elimination of returns



Negative revenue impacts
-1. Replacement of hardcovers
-2. Replacement of Trade Paper.

In the long term you have the potential from replacement of traditional publishers with what I will call service bureaus that do editing, proofreading, formatting of e-books, and marketing services at a lower cost than the traditional publishers.

H. Bruce Miller said...

"I indicated that they were higher than mass market, but might be lower than trade."

That's true, but it's not what you originally said, which was that ebooks sold for less than "paperbacks," type of paperback not specified.

"I also indicated that mass market was the biggest segment."

That no longer appears to be true.

"Your post indicated that ebooks was cheaper than paperbacks and as such were dependant upon the elimination of physical production and shipment and handling costs to be as profitable."

That's not what I said. I said that "the cost of distribution [for ebooks] is practically nothing and the cost of printing and binding is nil. The publishers and the retailers should both be making a killing on them." IOW the elimination of production costs and the near-elimination of distribution costs make them EVEN MORE profitable than they otherwise would be.

OHDG said...

yeah most mass market paperbacks are about 7.99 or 8.99.

H. Bruce Miller said...

"In the long term you have the potential from replacement of traditional publishers with what I will call service bureaus that do editing, proofreading, formatting of e-books, and marketing services at a lower cost than the traditional publishers."

True. And a "service bureau" could be one guy with a computer working out of his home. Me, for instance.

Or more likely somebody in India working for 40 rupees an hour.