I've taken to making note of building permits.
June starts were 20. ........ For all three counties........... In June.
Meanwhile, Paul Krugman among others is calling this a "de facto" double dip recession, which I do believe is the same exact terminology I used. Heh.
Anyway, for me three months is enough to call it a trend, and this month is without a doubt going to be one of worst months I've seen in a long time. I'm taking satisfaction in more or less breaking even, (probably a small profit) rather than turning a big profit like I'd planned.
Thing is, if the official definition of a recession is two quarters of down, well then, 5 months of down and one of up doesn't count.
Except to those of us who actually experience it, I guess.
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Looked at long-term, it's not a bad thing that housing starts are down; the market here won't begin to recover until we draw down the huge excess inventory built during the bubble and bring supply more into line with demand.
COBA, meanwhile, continues to push the city to do stuff to encourage MORE building despite the absence of demand, which is simply nuts. Our problem is not an under-supply of housing; it is an under-supply of buyers.
"this month is without a doubt going to be one of worst months I've seen in a long time"
Are you making this comparison to other July's, or to any month of the year? Surely your worst July is still much better than your best February...?
On a different subject.
Duncan,
Did you catch the news that Amazon is now selling more e-books then physical books. At rate of 143 to 100 for the last three months. 180 to 100 for the last months. The e-books seemed have reached critical mass and the change migth accelerate faster then anyone expected.
Saw my first Nook yesterday. Smaller than I expected.
Jeff,
Don't be too sure. This month sucks.
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