My wife's mother was born in 1905, and she still remembered the horse and buggy days, seeing early cars and her first airplane.
I think we're living in one of those times, like the introduction of the railroad and the telegraph.
Change is always happening, but the kind of change the internet represents is truly a once in a lifetime paradigm shift. We all thought it was the computer that was changing things, but I think the internet is having even more impact. (Yes, I know -- the internet is only possible because of the computer.)
There is a certain thrill the creative destruction that's occurring right now. I'd like to stick around long enough to see where it's going.
It's fun to think about the potential of the book trade, for instance, even though I'm going to be affected by it.
One thing that has puzzled me, and I haven't read anyone else really comment on it, is I wonder how the makers of Nook and Kindle think they are going to keep the e-book in any way proprietary.
If it's the technology they're selling, then I'd put my money on a couple of alternatives. On the high end, I'd be willing to bet that Apple is going to eat their lunch. That they'll be quicker and more thorough and more ruthless in advancing the state of the art.
On the low end, I'm just betting that there will be many, many low cost alternatives that will do what Kindle and Nook do, probably just about as well.
So is the money in the selling of books?
Only if it's somehow exclusive to that particular reader.
What happens if you can only get a particular book on a particular reader? I think the whole thing falls apart. The whole thing becomes Balkanized. Hell, it might come down to each individual publisher selling their books on their their own individual e-reader.
I'm betting that won't happen. Certainly, it would lower the value of the e-reader to the point I'd doubt I'd want one. If that happens, paper books will start looking more attractive again.
So if any reader can download any book, than I'd bet on entities other than Amazon and Barnes and Noble being cheaper. There are always people willing to sell for cost, in the attempt to gain market share.
The money from online newspapers isn't replacing the money they get from the physical paper. Every time a paper goes behind a paywall, it drops in readership. I know that I read the Oregonian and the USA Today online every day, after having bought the physical newspaper for decades.
If I was Barnes and Noble, I'd probably try to take the enterprise private, and then rededicate into doing a good job as a brick and mortar business. If it requires smaller stores, then that's what I'd do. More selective inventory? Then I'd do that. But I wouldn't bet on my future being technology -- or online service. I think others will be much better at it.
We'll see, I guess.
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11 comments:
Duncan,
If you go back and read through the comments there has been a discussion on the issue of the proprietary nature of the nindle and other e-book readers. In my opinion it will hold back adoption. Electronic music really took off after you had a common standard MP3. Most people currently buying e-book readers have not had them long enough to realize the issue when they encounter a need to change. I first started using e-books on my Treo using the format from a company called Mobi Pocket. They wrote software for a number of devices including several smart phones. The problem came up when they were purchased by Amazon and then proceeded to pretty much stop development for new devices (Amazon used their format with some modifications as the e-book format for the kindle). Fortunately most of my e-books were purchased directly from Baen publishing and they do not lock the books they sell so I could easily convert them to epub format which is the closest thing e-books has to mp3.
The problem is that most publishers are so afraid of piracy that they will not sell e-books without having them copy protected (locked). Many of the device vendors want people tied to their harware and their proprietary stores (Apple, Amazon, etc). For the occasional reader that just reads a book once and then gets rid of it there is not an issue. However, for those of us that keep and reread lots of books the long term ability to access is certainly an issue.
Well, it seems to me that either it's cheap and easily available to all, an alternative to paper books.
And won't make anyone money for the technology and creators.
Or it's proprietary, and not as cheap or convenient, and makes money.
But paper books are a valid and economical alternative.
Hard to see how they can have it both ways.
Duncan,
Apple is the king of proprietary. Their entire approach is not only to control the device, but control what you can buy to run on it. They start it with itunes, extended it with the sale of apps for the iphone and with e-books. Amazon is just copying their business model with the kindle and making it a pain to buy and manage e-books without going buying from Amazon. There are ways to do so, but it is clearly not their preferred way for you to use the Kindle.
I current have a droid phone and use FBReader and ePub format for most of my e-books. I also have the nook software for books that I cannot get in ePub format.
I keep complete backup copies of my library on my PC with software for accessing all formats.
Currently at over 1000 e-books and counting. Was very handy last week, while on a cruise ship in glacier bay, to access a web site and purchase a new release that I had been waiting for.
You could have said the same about records, CD's, etc.
The point is that is should lower over all cost and improve overall access.
The devices I believe are temporary. They will fade out when people get used to having access on devices they otherwise carry anyway. Why buy a nook when I can run nook software on my droid, or my laptop and will be able to on any number of pad type devices that will be hitting the market in the next 6 months or so. The push by companies like amazon to try and force people to use their stores will keep them around for a while, but eventually they will fade away like portable CD players.
From the publisher side they will reduce distribution costs (no printing and shipping necessary). Now since their will be a lowered cost of entry the number of different books will go up (it is already a very high number), but the average quality will probably suffer (just like and garage band can create and post an mp3 of their music to the internet).
Retail will eventually resemble music retail today with most sales being from a few mega sources like iTunes. Just like with must the existing formats (printed) will continue (just like you can still buy CDs) for quite a while.
Basically costs will get squeezed out of the system as the distribution channels change with the majority of it being royalties to authors and publishing costs (think proof reading and advertising, etc.)
One other note. Cost impact to the consumer.
My Droid phone costs, but I would have a cell phone even if e-books did not exist.
Cost of FBReader $0, cost of nook for Droid $0, cost of Kindle for Droid $0 (I refuse to buy through Amazon due to what they did with Mobi, but the software is available).
The bottom line is that the software will get produced as a cost of doing business, because it encourages the sale of more e-books.
Dunc this site is starting to suck almost as much as Bend citizens and city hall.
Please try to do something about this entire subject of books and comics.
You do best when your lamenting on the Bend of your childhood.
On a recent flight I had to listen to a passenger in front of me blather on about how great his Kindle was to a fellow passenger.
When it was time to take off, the flight attendant told him to turn the damn thing off and the Kindle fellow couldn't believe it. He had to stop reading while the plane taxied and then took off. So much for his awesome technology. Meanwhile, I went on reading my book. Long live the printed page. It doesn't cause planes to fall from the sky.
Who could have fucking guessed?
Zillow reports that more than 40 percent of homeowners in Bend are in negative equity positions. The median home price in Bend has declined 52.6 percent ...
Pretty nice site you've got here. Thanx for it. I like such themes and anything connected to them. I definitely want to read a bit more soon.
Julia Swenson
Yep, currently on planes they, as with all other electronic devices( mp3 players, sound deadening ear phones, etc.), they have to be off until the plane reaches 10,000 feet and then again on final approach (maybe a total of 20 minutes per flight).
On the other hand I nolonger have to carry the half a dozen to a dozen books that I used to take along on business trips.
Yes, new to Bend, but on this site I feel I'm back on the plantation with my own people.
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