February, 2010 results.

Despite a slow last week of the month, we managed to beat last year by 8%, which is now the sixth month in a row beating the 90 pound weakling that was last year. We'll have this low goal post at least until September again.

As I've said before, I prefer a good, strong, solid 10% growth rate to anything more spectacular than that, because that is an increase that can be believed and sustained.

Comics and graphic novels were down 10%, mostly because graphic novels were an inexplicable 35% down: I'm guessing that these sales are being entered under either comics or books by my employees. (It is often a fine, gray line between books and graphic novels...)

On the other hand, games were up by 40%. Books were up, and so were toys.

My collector card games seem to have stabilized, finally, and were up from last year. Sports were up a tiny bit.

It's probably coming time to drop anime as a category altogether; just a waste of a register key.

So, all in all, I'm pretty pleased. It probably should have been a bit higher, because I actually overspent (on purpose); but, like I said, we had one of those crappy weeks that come along.
Time of year, and all that.

First week of March was pretty horrible, too. Until yesterday, which was strong enough to pull up the entire average. A little too hit and miss, for my taste -- but results are what count.

I think the mix of product is working for the store, and I just need to keep it up.

Pine or Sagebrush

A couple of anecdotal indicators.

I've been getting much larger stacks of 1.00's and 5.00's when I make my deposits. Which I always interpret as, "The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak."

I've been getting lots of cold calls. I'm never sure if I'm actually getting more cold calls, or I'm just noticing them more because it's slow.

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Tammy Sawyer: "How dare you say that about me! I challenge you to a duel! uhh....can I borrow some bullets? No? Well, then, the DUEL IS OFF!!!"

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Someone was commenting that they thought KOHD seemed a little formal and didn't have a local 'feel'. Which, from the few times I watched, I'd have to agree.

People forget that KTVZ started off in a very similar fashion; no feel for Bend at all. I suspect every bit of the 'talent' came from somewhere else. I was home from college when the new station was profiled on The Today Show.

Now anyone who has lived in Bend for any length of time could come up with a dozen iconic images that would represent the area.

The pictures they showed on The Today Show were so generic and bland, it made me wonder who took them and if they had bothered to ask any locals where to get some nice views. If I remember right, they didn't even have the Cascade skyline. I may be wrong about the particulars, but I just remember it being .....off.

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Speaking of locals. One of the things I noticed about some of the builders who came to Bend in the mid-00's, was that they were tone deaf. They promoted the big city way. I used to think to myself, "That approach won't work."

But it did -- for awhile. Because so many of the people they were selling to were of the same mindset.

If nothing else, I'm hoping this slowdown will bring back some of the more 'down to earth' aura that Bend used to have...

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I've heard rumors of at least four more stores possibly coming downtown Bend. Which is astounding. Not sure what to make of that.

I don't think it necessarily reflects strong sales on the part of existing businesses...

Early on, I thought that there was a possibility that the 'froth' of openings in downtown would bridge the slowdown, and I think that is exactly what is happening. The Old Mill seems to be benefiting from it's location, as well.

Meanwhile, the vacancy rate for south 3rd St. is something like 26% -- but a local real estate company tried to downplay that in the Bulletin by saying that the empty Gottshalks location was inflating the total. That doesn't feel right -- I can't believe that Gottshalks would move the needle more than a few percentage points.

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Boardings at Redmond were down from January, and even more interesting, down from last February.

I think, overall, that February was a slow month in Bend, even slower than usual. At Pegasus Books, we beat last year by about 8% (more on that tomorrow) but there was a very, very slow ten day stretch late in the month that canceled out a much bigger increase.

Another local lumber yard closing, with sales last year at less than 10% of the peak; with the realization that things aren't going to get better anytime soon.

I think for existing businesses, especially in the construction trades, it is probably really sinking in that things aren't going to turn around anytime soon.

One of the fascinating things about watching CACB scramble to survive, is that I suspect that even if they managed to get through the next year of so, that commercial real estate is lurking down the road. They'd better hope that whatever financing they manage to scrape up will be sufficient to withstand an even bigger challenge....

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A little experiment. Sometimes I start a blog earlier and then finish and post and the date comes in wrong and it's posted on BendBlogs at the earlier date and it looks like I didn't make a post on the current day and we can't have that so I've reposted with the right date and a slightly different title to see if it pops up on the right day and I know you probably don't care about any of this and sorry to waste your time but I've posted everyday for over 3 years and I don't want to stop now...

Bend is different, I tell you

Looks like the city is slowly but surely moving in the direction of possibly lowering parking fees in the garage for downtown employees.

Chuck was in yesterday, and I suggested that they take the second from the top level, or even the second and third levels from the top of the garage, and offer it to employees for a minimal cost. Say, 20.00 a month. If the tags are transferable, I'd think a responsible employer would be willing to buy one or two.

During the daytime, these levels have been 95% empty almost everytime I've ever seen them.

Color code them -- blue levels, or red levels, or something.

Not to say I told you so....well, maybe a little....but I've been suggesting this for years, now.

What about someone like me who is currently paying the 50.00 a month? Well, I'm sure some of us will keep the convenient parking on the lower levels, and others wouldn't. But I'm not suggesting this solution as a money maker for the garage, unfortunately, only as a possible solution to employee parking.


Which brings me to a second point.

I'm certain that some of you think I'm opposed to the garage, the buses, the Tower Theater.

What I'd like to point out is -- my contention from the beginning, and this is my judgment based on being a lifelong resident of Bend-- is that all three of these public 'good' projects would be underutilized.

And I was right.

I can't explain why Bend is so different, but I just believe that we don't get the same results here for public transportation, or parking garages, or public venues that places of similar size elsewhere. Demographics? Isolation? Eastern Oregon culture?

I can't explain it, but I know it's there.

And it seems invisible to the newcomers, and especially to the promotion-ally minded types.

I love to use the garage, for instance, but I've been given to understand that they manage to sell only about half as many tags for it as they expected. The buses look to me to be mostly empty.
I doubt the day will ever come that the Tower will pay for itself.

Just saying -- the assurances that these projects will be successful by the promoters need to be looked at a bit more skeptically. Taking into account the different culture here -- the cowboy, logging, I'll drive everywhere and park where I want--culture.

I always say we have a thin veneer of sophistication here, and while that gets most of the media attention, the underlying culture is much more conservative -- in lifestyle and politics -- than people seem to think.

Why do you rob banks?"... "It's where the money is!"

"Foreclosures are selling like hotcakes!" says a local real estate blog.

Wouldn't that be more like wet, soggy, pancakes?

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These Summit guys have 16.8 million dollars to give back?

And still keep their houses and "other" assets?

Come on, they were running a glorified real estate company, in Bend, Oregon, where they were supposed to park people's money and gather interest....They weren't running a international hedge fund.

The very fact that they accumulated so much money in a local company says to me, well, something was screwy. Very screwy.

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So the city of Bend hired a pollster to ask if citizens would "oppose tax increase."

I wish they'd just give me the money, next time. I give them an immediate two letter answer and then I'd take the money and spend locally. They'd have their answer, and I'd have their money, and then -- I promise -- I'd spend it.

What say you?

Or...maybe they could just kind of ask that inner voice that tells you common sense things. And I'd bet that little voice would say to them, "Hmmm....maybe this would be bad timing....."

Oh, and I can save you money on the next tourist poll. The answers are:

People stay with relatives, motels, or camping.

They come for the outdoors.

They like the shop downtown.

There....satisfied? Just send me a check.

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Finally some new shows on T.V. Though 4 hours of Law and Order over two nights is a little much.

"Ladies...look at your man. Now look at me...."

"You 'have' no life -- you're a blogger..." Samantha B. Daily Show.

"Ladies...Look at your man. Now....Look at me. Now.....Look at your man..."

I'm feeling put upon here! I'm feeling put upon here!!! Linda laughs heartily every time the Old Spice Commercial comes on.

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We seem to have an endless capacity for "surprised" and "unexpected."

The economy is a cycle. It should be no surprise when it goes up, and it shouldn't be unexpected when it goes down.

And up

And down

And up.....

And down...........

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Usually, when my beard gets this long, I get it trimmed.

I'm thinking with the National Beard Contests arriving this summer that I may go for the Full Beardy.

I'll probably end up looking like Gabby Hayes....

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Spider-man is Fired!

Read it this morning on Huffington Post.

Thanks for telling me, Marvel. I usually sell 15 copies. I'll have 15 copies for sale.

Urrrgggghhh.

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Game of Thrones, George R.R. Martin.

My second favorite fantasy series of all time, is being put into production by HBO.

No way they can get it right, but it'll be interesting. It being HBO, they may just stick to the rather brutal plot.

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CACB is doing a stock reversal.

So they take five dollars in ones and exchange it for a five dollar bill and that makes them solvent?

Is NASDAQ stupid?

Oh....

yeah......

Never mind....

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LOST seems to be simplifying into Good versus Evil.

When "not" John Locke offers Sayid the "deal" he might as well have been wearing horns and a hooked tail. (Doesn't Sayid remember how 'Deals with the Devil' turn out?)

But it was interesting to see the Fully Evil Claire and Fully Evil Sayid, and the crew following the not-John Lock. Kate? From the appraising look of the devil, she may still have a chance...

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I'm not sure why losing Saturday postal service doesn't bother me more.

Maybe because it will take my bills an extra day to get to me. heh.

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The grass is always greener. The story in today's paper about "declining rents attracting new retail" made me think about a couple of things I've heard in the last couple of weeks.

The "Grass is Always Greener"...phenom seems to be a constant. When I had a store in both the Mt. View Mall and in Downtown, I'd hear the merchants in one, envious of the merchants in the other.

I had a conversation with a downtown merchant lately who was envious of the Old Mill.

Another downtown merchant seems to believe that Wall St. would be oh so much better than Minnesota St...

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Let's see. Electricity 20% higher. Cable bills going up. Comics nearing 3.50. Health insurance going up about 20% EVERY year.

Good thing we don't have inflation.

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Speaking of which. "Obama Pushing For Home Efficiency Rebates."

I've been thinking of doing the whole energy appraisal thing. Now I'm going to wait to see if I can "...get 50 percent of the cost back...."

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THE PLAN; if I may call it that...

Every couple of years, I'm tempted to move from 'direct ship' reorders, to 'regular ship' reorders.

DIRECT SHIPPING:

Basically, if I order at the beginning of the week, I receive reorders two days later, and I'm billed the following week. The reorder comes air shipped, but I'm charged by my distributor at ground ship prices.

Nevertheless, it adds a full 15% to most orders in shipping costs.

REGULAR SHIPPING:

If I wait to receive the same material with my usual Wednesday's shipment, I'd pay more like 3 to 5% shipping. But I have to wait anywhere from one week to two weeks, and the bill comes due upon arrival.

Usually, I decide that getting the material earlier and paying for it later makes more sense. It's more convenient, and I love being able to say to the customer "I'll have it on Thursday." I also figure that replacing a good selling graphic novel in 2 days rather than 14 days, might mean I sell more.

SAVINGS:

Overall, I figure I can save about 200.00 a month in costs by buying regular rather than direct.

Once again, I'm tempted by the idea of saving a couple of hundred bucks a months in costs. What's enticing me is that I can probably come up with a method to have the inventory in stock of the best-selling books, so that waiting longer for it to arrive won't cost me a sale.

My business is doing well enough now, that losing the five or six extra days in payment terms isn't significant.

IT'S DC COMICS, AND IT MIGHT WORK.

DC graphic novels are my best-selling backstock by far.

I've always carried at least one copy of each major book, maybe two in quantity of the first in an important series; i.e. Sandman, Preacher, Fables, Y-the Last Man, etc.

A very large percentage of evergreen best-sellers are DC; especially the Vertigo imprint.

About a year ago, DC changed their terms and I lost 3% points in discount. I've slowly inched up in orders until I'm within striking distance of the quantity I need to regain the 3% points.

THE PLAN:

So the Plan, if I go forward with it, would be to make sure I add about 150.00 worth of DC material every week. To get there, I'd probably be able to order second copies of about 20 to 30 different major series, and then a second copy on second tier series (books that sell only once a year or so) , and then maybe fill in the holes on third tier series (books that may sell only once or twice every couple years.)

What this does is make sure that I don't run out of evergreen books while waiting the extra 10 to 14 days. And it bumps up my discount level at the same time.

Roughly speaking, I'd be saving around 300.00 a month overall, counting both shipping and discount. If I figure 50% margins, its the equivalent of 600.00 dollars in sales. This works out to equivalent of getting around 30 to 40 EXTRA graphic novels every month for the same cost. Most of the 'extra' DC order is canceled out; and I am more likely to have a copy of a best-selling graphic novel in stock.

3% POINTS AND 300.00 ADD UP:

Ultimately, 300.00 a month in savings doesn't seem like all that much; but what the last few years have taught me is, every percentage point I can shave off of costs makes the store all that much stronger.

There will probably be about a 3 month inconvenience while I institute this policy. I'll be ramping up my orders to save the 3% points, but I won't have either the extra percentage or the extra copies at first. Nevertheless, this can work because so many of my graphic novel sales are DC -- outstripping Marvel, Dark Horse and all the other companies.

SPOILED:

I have to admit, I've been spoiled by the 2 day shipping. I've tried to institute the above ideas before, only to fall back to bad habits. The extra 3% DC discount is kind of the clinching argument. With money in the bank, saving a few days in payment terms doesn't seem as important. That and the realization that the store is so well stocked I'm not as worried selling out of the best books (It's hard to imagine that waiting an extra 10 days would cost me 30 - 40 book sales a month; especially as the inventory improves...)

Going forward, I can maximize my DC sales by getting those extra 3% points; compounding whatever success I might have selling their product.

So it's probably time to get disciplined and quit relying on the instant gratification of direct orders...

What we have here, is a failure to communicate.

Dear City of Bend, As your guardian, I have to reject your proposed UGB plans.

"Huh?"

I said, we are rejecting your UGB plans.

"What?"

"You have not proven the need, your conclusions are flawed, and you have not followed proper procedures."

"Why?"

???? Why what?

"But State of Oregon, we worked really really hard on this!"

That may be so, but your results are flawed. You are missing the evidence you need to convince us.

"But we have the evidence! The dog ate it."

Nevertheless.

"Come on Oregon, can't you give me a C- for old time's sake. You're going to keep us from being the big time city we've always knew we'd become."

Sigh. I'll explain again. Your plan is too big and your locations are not supported by the evidence.

"I'm Baffled!"

Puts head in hands and groans. "You have failed to use proper terminology and zoning codes. We have no way of knowing what you're talking about."

"I'm mystified!"

Oregon throws up hands. See you in the appeals process....