Upsides versus Downsides.

Marvel Comics is moving their distribution of comics and graphic novels from Diamond Distributors to Penguin Random House, the largest publisher in America. This, after DC Comics decided to move to another, smaller distributor earlier this year.

This is going to have huge repercussions for the comic industry as a whole, which I won't write about now other than to say that this could be very bad for everyone else in the industry since Diamond will now be trying to survive with 70 to 80% of the comic market taken away from them. This would seem very dangerous to the other 20 to 30% of the market--all those innovative but smaller comic publishers.

But my first thought was what I once read about Upsides versus Downsides; Corporations will take huge risks for a possible large payoff on the Upside, if the industry is already close to the bottom of the Downside. (AOL didn't have a lot to lose by joining with Warner Brothers--they were already toast, though Warner Brothers didn't seem to realize that...)

So the downside of this change is that it could destroy the entire comic market. Marvel may not be overly concerned about that: their only concern is whether it will hurt sales of Marvel product. And for that, they may feel it is worth the risk. (Sorry all you small stores and publishers...it's just business.)

My guess is that the Downside doesn't scare them. They could probably stop selling monthly comics tomorrow and still stay pretty strong as a media company.

The Upside is many more (book)stores carrying Marvel comics and a bigger company willing to promote them. (There is also the sneaking suspicion that if the other smaller publishers crash, well...that leaves them on top. I'd submit that being on top of the stinking remains of a burned-out industry is a hollow victory, but "Top of the world, Ma!")

My own experience with such Revolutions in any industry is that it usually doesn't work. That it hurts more than helps. I subscribe more to the "Do no Harm" school of thought. The thing no one tells you about "creative destruction" is that the destruction happens to most of the existing industry to the benefit of a minority of big winners: The Upside.

I've spent years trying to inoculate my business from the vagaries of any one product line. 

In April, 2015, comics were 34% of my overall sales, and graphic novels were 24%, for an overall 58%.

In April, 2021 comics were 13% of my overall sales, and graphic novels were 22%, for an overall 35%.

Sales in my store are also 30% higher overall now, and I don't see graphic novel sales dropping dramatically. So the Downside for me is that comic sales will drop, worst case scenario, by half? That would be only 6.5% of my overall sales, and if that money isn't spent on comics, it probably will be spent somewhere else. 

The biggest change is that the line between books and graphic novels continues to blur in the public's mind. The new "Dog Man: Mothering Heights" book this week would something a smart comic store would carry as well as a smart bookstore. 

I'm fascinated by the choices the big corporations make. For instance, they could have just shored up Diamond Comics, perhaps given them a little more support so they could have Free Shipping, perhaps done something--ANYTHING!--to actually promote comics. 

Instead, they just casually pull the rug out from the entire industry and figure that the other Big Player will do a good job. 

I guess we'll see. I have my doubts that Penguin Random House has any idea what they're getting into.