Feeling half smart.

I'm feeling half smart.

(Forgive the egocentricity of this entry. But it is in the forefront of my mind. I should feel fortunate that I have savings to worry about at all. I know the stock market is not a factor in many people's lives...)

I took one half of the available money out of the stock market in mid-July, but put it back in on Wednesday, the 3rd of August.

If I had waited just one more day! There was no reason to jump back in that day, I just had a moment to call my financial guy so I did.

I had avoided the first third of the downturn. I also put 35% into a 'safe' investment, which so far has proven to be pretty safe-- that is, it's dropped about 1% when the rest of the market has dropped 10 times that much.

So by my reckoning, I saved myself about half the available pain.

However, when I say available, I could've sold the other half in cash in mid-July as well -- but that seemed more complicated and more like panic selling.

So that makes me about one quarter smart.

Still -- I coulda been a contender. I could have crowed. Instead, I'm eating crow.

What now? I haven't a clue. And when I don't have a clue, I tend to just keep doing what I'm doing.


I think I have a tendency to not give myself enough 'lag' time. I think it's because I somehow believe the markets are more efficient than they actually are. I get the basic swing right, but the timing wrong.

I remember back to when I decided the comic bubble was about to pop. It was in March, (94?) and I was making my orders for May product. I cut back drastically on my orders for June, July, and August, believing I could sell any overflow from April, May during our 'busy' months.

What I didn't see coming was that the majority of the heavily ordered April, May product, didn't show up until Sept, Oct. and Nov. So even though I was right about the timing -- amazingly so -- I didn't realize there would be a six month lag, or delay.

I tend to be pretty good about my analysis, but I don't give it enough time to develop.

That's why, when this recession started, I told myself in advance not to expect any improvement in sales for at least 7 years, probably longer. 4 years into the recession, which I don't think ever went away for those of us on Main St., that estimate is looking a little low.

Slow news day, (unless you count the end of the world.)

A slow news day, if you ignore a crashing stock market or two.

The Bulletin had a rather bizarre editorial that criticized the state for granting money to OSPIRG which had the temerity to question rate increases by health insurance companies. Because the companies are "Oregon" companies....

Because Oregon companies would never raise the rates unnecessarily. Especially health insurance companies....

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Went to see Cowboys and Aliens.

I think because I had already downgraded this movie in my mind, I actually was surprised by how much I enjoyed it.

I think it's the first time I've seen Harrison Ford really play his age; instead of the awkward sort of, "he's old, but he's Han Solo, wink, wink, nudge, nudge, so he can still kick your butt" kind of role. Though there was a bit of that.

Then came home and watched season finale of Falling Skies, which gets more and more ludicrous

This is a resistance army that could only have been created by Hollywood. Your touchy feelly army of, "Oh, did I hurt your feelings because you betrayed us to the enemy? Come here, let me give you a hug...."

One thing consistent about aliens in these movies -- they have lousy security. Some cultures never invented the wheel; aliens never invented the sentry.

***********

"I think I sunburned the top of my head! That's never happened before."

"Well, you used to have hair on the top of your head. You don't get sunburned if you have hair....

"What?"

"You don't get sunburned if you have hair...."

"What? What are you saying?"

"Ummm....

"Are you saying I have no hair? Are you saying I'm BALD?"

"No, dear. You still have hair, just not as much."

"What?"

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Sundays That and This.

About the tourism article in the Bulletin this morning. I think most people don't realize that whether sales are up and down have to do with so many connected factors that it's nearly impossible to take one factor out and draw any firm conclusions.

My sales have more to do with the product lines I'm carrying, and their current popularity, than anything else. In fact, for every part of my career except the first few years and the last few years, the economy at large had very little to do with results.

That said -- We ARE a tourism economy, don't kid yourself.

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Instead of finishing the garden jobs I've started, I spent most of yesterday clearing away a whole new space for the garden. I spread a packet of wild flowers and we'll see what happen.

I have a sunburn on the top of my head, under the hair, which I don't remember ever happening before. At least I still have hair on the top of my head -- if there was one thing I always knew, it was that I'd be bald by now and I'm totally surprised I'm not.

Anyway, whenever I garden that intensively, I am itchy and sore and scratchy beyond belief. It took me hours to fall asleep last night -- I dreamed of roots, tangled and entwined.

Speaking of roots, we brought home a couple of curly willow cuttings from out son, Todd, in Portland and I just kind of put them in a tub of water. Weeks later, they've sprouted roots under water. So I'm going to plant them pretty soon, and hope they survive.

I didn't fertilize the plants this year-- I figured I'd do that in August in enough time to hopefully strengthen the roots -- so I better get going on that... I'm also going to make more of an effort to cover plants this winter -- either build up the dirt around them, or use refuse if that's handy.

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Last week, Linda and I went to go see Cowboys and Aliens (Aliens and Cowboys?); but I'd read the time wrong, and we were 10 minutes late. Since I'd just read a review that said the first 5 minutes of the movie were the best, we opted to see Horrible Bosses, instead.

It was O.K. Funny in parts. But I always feel like these kind of movies can be seen on a smaller screen without any loss in viewing. Seems like a waste of money. These gross-out movies seem to be becoming total formula. I'm already tired of them. Going to see Aliens/Cowboys this afternoon.

**********

I kept finding shelled peanuts in my garden and couldn't for the life of me figure it out. (Sometimes I'm not very smart -- please, no comments.) Finally, Linda pointed out the obvious -- someone is feeding the squirrels. I feel really bad about digging up the poor squirrels winter food....

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I've decided to go heavy on ordering new books for the rest of the year. I keep selling the easy books -- titles like Sometimes a Great Notion, or The Alchemist, or On The Road. Inexcusable not to have them in stock. I have dozens of titles I know have sold and probably will sell again. Maybe hundreds of titles.

Meanwhile, when people ask for titles like "The Help", I always say, "I don't really try to carry the bestsellers." They just look at me like I'm crazy. That's like saying, "I don't carry them because they sell too good..."

But new hardcovers are so expensive I think people SHOULD buy them at a discount whenever possible. It has to be a very special book for me to carry it new hardcover; like Dance with Dragons. Even then, I've only sold a few.

It's when they're affordable, at 15.00 or less, that I'm always surprised the customers don't buy the book new. If a book is worth reading, it's worth buying new; if a book isn't worth reading, it isn't worth buying used. They simply don't believe me when I say they're unlikely to find the book they are looking for in used, and even if they did, it would only save them a few bucks.

I mean, it's possible, but not likely for any particular book. And really, when was the last time you were reading a good book and you EVEN THOUGHT about what it cost you? I'm not talking a 10.00 or 20.00 difference in price, but somewhere between 3.00 to 7.50, usually. Seriously, just buy the damn book and save yourself the time and energy.

I know, because I've had this store for 31 years, and my wife has had a used bookstore for 7 years that goes through hundreds of books a day -- that there are many titles, well-known titles, that simply don't show up used all that often, and when they do, they sell right away. But no one believes me when I say this -- they remember the successes they had finding a used copy, but they don't remember the failures.

So much wasted effort. I have the book right here -- and it's only a few bucks more. I take solace in the fact that it's Instant Karma, they pay the price not me.

Anyway, about the bestsellers. I've started explaining myself by saying -- "I wait to until the bestsellers have some seasoning..." which is true. But really, it's about not carrying 25.00 and 30.00 hardcovers that become impossible to sell once they become tradepaperbacks.

Strangely, there is a category of books that I do have luck selling in hardcover format. Books that people want a permanent library of -- such as Harry Potter and Song of Ice and Fire. I suspect The Hunger Game trilogy will be the same. Probably true of Lord of the Rings and some others. (In fact, I'm going to order a hardcover Hobbit in my next order...) I can actually sell hardcovers of them, despite it seeming like everyone in the world has already bought them.

Ah, the life.

One of the guys working for me has been bringing in movie soundtracks to play at the store. I don't know what movies they are -- but I feel like I'm in a theater. Very anthem-ic. Gets lots of raised eyebrows.

**********

So the hijacker, D.B. Cooper might have pretty much used his own name -- and had a connection to Boeing -- and no one ever saw it before?

The F.B.I sure is on top of things....

**********

Linda thought she was renewing my New York Times Sunday paper subscription, and instead signed up for The New Yorker. I don't mind -- the cover illustrations and cartoons alone are probably worth it. I remember always looking at the magazine when my parents took it. (It appears to be maybe one third the size of the mag. I remember...)

I'll tell you....reading long magazine articles feels kind of strange nowadays, especially since most of the ones I'm interested in I read online anyway.

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I had one of those eye-opening realizations that make me wonder why I didn't realize it before.

Yes, I was up 10% in sales in July from the previous year, my first up month in 14 months. But ALL that increase (and more) was due to one category, which had an unusual reason for being up that probably won't be duplicated soon.

In other words, it was more or less a false sign. Take that unusual reason out of the equation, and I would have had the usual small drop.

Sigh.

Still, I'm still more profitable today than I've been in 90% of my career -- due just to the store maturation. It took a long time to get here -- years of investment in time and inventory. It's fully stocked in six major categories....

It was painful at the time, but it certainly has panned out.

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I was patting myself on the back for avoiding a 5% drop in the stock market.

If I had waited just one more day, I would have avoided another 5% drop.

Bah.

***********

I say we just ignore S & P's downgrade. Just pretend there is no such thing as S & P.

What did you say? Who's S & P?

See...it's easy.

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My gardening urge has faded with the heat.

I really don't like the heat.

Later: changed my mind. Spent an hour on the lawn with my cat. It isn't that hot, and I started to get the urge to weed.

Think I'll be doing that for the next couple days -- put my laptop on patio in case I think of anything to write.

Ah, the life.

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Suggested Retail Price.

Early on, someone told me you can tell the strength of a store by how close to Suggested Retail Price they charge.

Why do I try to charge S.R.P as often as I can? Is it to survive? Or is it to get richer?

No, the real answer is -- so I can have a fully stocked store. Not just the obvious stuff, but the next tier down, as well as the unusual and the unexpected. So that I don't constantly have to scramble to get enough material, or pay my bills, and so I can experiment on untested or new product, or bring in a whole new product line.

That's really the real reason. To have a store full of material. S.R.P is me trying to do a good job.

Try to explain that to a newbie to business. They've been told from the moment they first think about retail that "the cheaper you are, the more you'll sell."

First of all, that is often not even true. Product tends to have its own demand momentum. If it had high demand, you can sell it at a higher margin. If it has low demand, selling it at a cheaper margin won't usually push the noodle all that much.

But selling more doesn't even matter, if you aren't making sufficient margin. At least in the cost effective sense. If you sell 80% more selling for half the normal price, you still don't make what you would've made selling for 80% less at normal price. In fact, you probably lost money. At half the margin, you need to double your sales, minimum.

That's IF you are selling at a very nice 50% margin. If you sell for less than that, -- and for most product most of the time, you do sell for less than that -- then even selling double won't make up for the loss. (If you get large margins -- 50% or more, I guarantee it won't be long before someone comes along to undercut you. Every time.)

If I sell you a 1.00 item that I bought for .60, at 20% off -- that is half my profit margin. For you, the significant number is 20%. For me, the significant number is 50%.

But even if you succeed at selling more material -- you still have to replace it. In fact, you have to replace twice as much material. Your cost of goods in effect is twice as much, so you have to sell more of it faster.

It's a downhill slide, I tell you.

You have no margin for error. If something stops selling, you're probably going to lose money. Selling half the product at full price to break even is a much more comfortable place to be than have to sell 80% of the product before you break even.

It's hell on the cash flow -- being positive sooner is a great benefit to a business.

Sometimes you have no choice. But whenever you can charge the S.R.P, you should try to do it.

Not because I'm greedy. But because by buying at S.R.P I can stay in business, buy more material, buy material that has slightly less demand or sells slightly slower, have sufficient stock in place, and so on.

S.R.P. makes me a better store, which helps me to sell for full price, which helps me to be a better store, which helps me to sell for full price....

My guy got snookered.

First of all, let me make it clear that there is no way on God's Green Earth that I won't vote for Obama in the next election. There is not a Republican in sight who I would vote for, instead.
That said, I'm not happy.

1.) I think Obama has a cautious and consensus building personality, not a daring and confrontation one.

2.) I think he is fundamentally more conservative -- moderate-- than I expected.

3.) I think he listens to experts a little too much.

The first point is O.K. I think his personality is probably the only kind that could have survived the crazies.

The second point, well, I'm a bit surprised, but I just made the assumption he was liberal, when he's pretty much an establishment kind of guy.

The third point is the one I'm disappointed in; and it shows that he probably needed slightly more seasoning as a leader.

To me, Tim Geithner is his Rumsfield. Obama just bought into their bullshit, and when he had the political momentum, didn't do anything about Wall Street.

Nothing was solved. Nothing was resolved. No one went to jail. No effective changes were made. We are all going to pay the price for years to come.

It's just sad.

O.K. Mr. Smartypants.

I was going to write a followup to yesterday's post about how "BLOODY OBVIOUS" the downturn was -- to say, well, I don't really believe that.

No need.

Today pretty much proved that point.

eh?

"Great kid. Don't get cocky!"

I've made a few decisions over the last year that didn't work out, I just haven't talked as much about them. They were necessary decisions where the timing wasn't fortuitous.

Which is what usually happens, you know?

I realize from my store that things that seem "bloody obvious" aren't; and things that seem unlikely -- are.