Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Deschutes has lots of woods, and we aren't out of them yet.

I feel almost an obligation to take on the real estate issues, since nobody else seems to want to anymore. But I just don't know enough about the inner mechanics -- and though I read the economic blogs, I'm not obsessive about it.

For instance, I know there is much to say about the Bulletin's front page story: "Deschutes County Sees Drop in Notices of Default", but much of the contrary information was put out weeks and months ago on blogs like Calculated Risk, and it'd be a huge chore to try to dredge it up now.

I'll point out the most obvious -- the last quarter of 2009 was comparing to the last quarter of 2008, which was -- as I'll keep saying -- the 90 pound weakling of quarters.

Also, for a breathtaking shot of clarity and perspective, check out the chart of "notices of default." 221 in 2006; 3,507 in 2009.

My own analysis is that the drop is probably due more to delay and short-term boosts than to any underlying change. Hey, underwater homeowner, apply for a loan modification so we don't have to default on your lagging ass until later....

If Bend runs a year behind, we'll hear about defaults being lower elsewhere in the country first; and the experts quoted in the article are predicting an INCREASE in Notices of Default nationwide in 2010.

Suffice to say, I don't think Deschutes County is anywhere near out of the woods.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Back to the routine.

I think for now, I'm going to be happy with the return to routine, to the slower pace.

Obviously, not as much revenue, but that just means I should spend less. That I need spend less.

Doesn't mean I want to spend less. I see plenty of new books, for instance, I'd like to buy. But that's neverending. I'm almost there on new boardgames, but there are always new ones and I'd like never to sell out of the best-sellers, but the results at Christmas justify and new level of investment.

I've done my year end stats, and I'll detail them more later, but roughly speaking I've decided to shore up a couple of the categories that underperformed. Show a little faith. Get the inventory level higher. As long as I break even, I'm O.K. with that result.

I'm pretty stable right now in my categories -- maybe for the first time ever. I'm standing pat. I'm letting manga and anime fade for awhile, and selling them for half price until I've winnowed them down, but even those I'm going to start bringing in the best 10 of each category, eventually.

Sports cards were down, a bit. But I didn't support them as well as I had the year before, and that's easily corrected.

Generally speaking, I'm planning to keep adding to my new books and my new games, hold at comics and graphic novels and toys, try to shore up collector card games and sports cards, and let manga and anime slide for awhile. Used books are already filling every nook and cranny I can find.

Like I said, nicely routine.

Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled...bags.

Something kind of cool has happened over the last few years. I didn't even set out to do it. It was the customers' idea, in a way, or it just sort of became something everyone figured out. But I started getting bags of used bags from my regulars.

It started by my bringing used bags from home, probably, and the customers saw me doing it, and they decided to bring me theirs, and it sort of snowballed.

Really neat.

Actually shopping bags cost a bit more than people think. 2 or 3 cents a piece, but over time that can actually add up, I suppose.

Lots of people turn down bags, as well. I'll say something like, "Well, they already killed this plastic tree, so no further harm. "

Way to go, people. It's easy, and I've had maybe only two people in the last couple of years ask for a 'fresh' bag. Heh.

**********

Two things I always forget about employees, bless their pointy little hearts, is that they are terrible at change (coin) management. I swear, if the charge is 7.01 and the customer gives them 8.00, they'll give away .99 cents in change. I always forget to tell them, ask for the extra penny, the extra nickel, the extra dime. I hate to say it, but if you're getting down on change, let them walk away with 1%, you know? Make it Your Idea. Aren't I Nice?

The other thing that seems to happen with employees, is that bags get used up quicker. Partly, I use comic bags for comics whenever I can. About the same cost as a shopping bag, and the customer feels like they're getting something. And if the customer already has a bag, I ask if they want to put the item in that bag.

Of course, I could've just run out of bags earlier because it was Christmas.

As I said, bring me your used bags, or take them to Linda's store. I think probably most smaller stores would take them.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Bend is different. Right?

Interesting contrast in reporting about Hotel Lodging. Going from National -- to the Local -- to the Specific.

You have to ask yourself, why the differences?

Is this skewed reporting? --Not by the Bulletin, so much, as by the people they asked. Asking a hotel owner how he's doing, is probably a lot like asking a retailer how he's doing. You get a slanted answer. Note the words "random survey". Whereas, the statistics reported in the first instance would seem to be more objective.

Or is this just local difference? We really are different here? The rest of the country had it's worst week in half a century, but Bend did just fine. We got SNOW!!

Or is it just interpretation? Comparing to last year, for instance. It isn't hard to beat last year, folks. Last year was a 90 pound weakling. Or the famous weasel words: "better than projected." (Actually that's unfair. I often make the case that it isn't how you actually perform but how you expected to perform, as long as you adjusted your spending to take the lower projections into account.)

Or is this a case of Exception not Proving the Rule? So a few of the bigger resorts around here did well; while the rest suffered.

Or all of the above?

1.) First the National.

From Calculated Risk, 12/31/09:

HOTELS: WORST YEAR SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION.

In terms of the occupancy rate, 2009 was the worst year since the Great Depression (close to 55%). And last week was no exception with Smith Travel Research reporting the occupancy rate fell to 33.8 percent - the lowest weekly occupancy rate on record.



2.) Secondly, the Local. From the Bend Bulletin, 1/3/09. (I've weeded out the non-lodging reports....)

The holiday season comprising Christmas through New Year’s weekend was tough for some smaller hotels and motels, while vacationers filled some resorts and vacation homes to capacity.

Even though business was slow for some lodging properties, many owners said they were busier than during the same holiday period a year ago, according to a survey by The Bulletin of a random sample of hotel, resort and vacation rental owners about bookings for the week of Dec. 27 through this weekend. The results of the survey were across the board, mostly dependent on the size of the property.

Smaller hotels, such as the Tom Tom Motor Inn in Redmond, said business has been almost nonexistent.

“We get a few here and a few there. That’s about it,” said Owner Lilli Steele. “Nobody wants the little motels.”

Business at A Bend Cottage Experience, on the other hand, was booming. The company’s cottages have been booked at capacity since Dec. 20, said owner Lisa McDonald, and they’re booked through Monday.

“Business has been strong for the holidays,” McDonald said. “We think it’s going to be a little bit of a challenge to face January and February without the aid of the holidays, but we’re hopeful.”

McDonald said last winter, when many lodgers were suffering from a lack of vacationers, was a record period for A Bend Cottage Experience.

It’s a different story for the Bend Econo Lodge. General Manager Rocky Patel said business in November was down 50 percent from 2008.

“It’s slow,” he said. “I don’t think things are going to pick up for two or three years.”

***

Sunriver Resort Managing Director Tom O’Shea said last week that many people were making last-minute bookings for the New Year’s holiday weekend.

“We’re seeing a really nice uptick” over last winter, O’Shea said.

Scott Huntsman, president/CEO of Black Butte Ranch near Sisters, said bookings turned out better than he had projected. People continued making reservations through Thursday, Huntsman said, up until the weather turned.

“Things shaped up pretty well,” Huntsman said. “We’re pretty happy.”


3.) And finally to the specific. The Oxford Hotel missed the holidays for their opening.

Ouch.

I've been looking forward to them increasing foot traffic in downtown with wealthier tourist types...

Eh?

You know -- Hopefully. Better than last year. Up to my projections. We got snow!

Saturday, January 2, 2010

A slight frost in hell?

I took New Year's Day off. What's more, I didn't go to the store to get the month end -- and therefore, the Year's End -- readings.

It's not Hell Freezing Over, but it's a start.

Christmas is great, but the goals are so high that it's a bit nerve-wracking. January is usually my worst month, and my daily sales goal is much more achievable. You'd think the stress would come from the months you don't have high sales, not the months you have high sales.

But it's all a game of expectations, and how much you spend. It's all factored in -- you expect that make the little extra in July and August and December, to help pay the bills. A 10% drop in the busy months is much more significant than a 10% drop in the slow months.

I know already, just because I paid all the bills and credit cards on the 31st of December and how much I had left in my balances -- that I more or less broke even for the year. Zero bills or debts owed, and just enough money left in my accounts to pay the estimated taxes.

Which leaves out the IRA contribution. I probably could've got halfway there, too. But around October, I changed strategy to a "working profit"; that is, keeping the store up, and making just enough money to pay my monthly expenses and taxes.

I'll be doing a full accounting of the month in a day or two, and then a full accounting of the year. I probably didn't make a technical profit as high as 2008, but I wasn't trying for that. Much of the 'profits' in 2008 and 2007 were going into paying off credit cards and such. This year, I didn't have to worry about that.

**********

The only New Year's Resolution I have is to read at least one book a week. I've been hovering around 38 books a year, over the last few years. That isn't enough. I give myself a little goose every few years, to get reading! Which seems to work.

**********

I've still blogged every day for over 3 years -- silly, but it's a point of pride. But I'm going to allow myself the occasional, "Hi. How you doing? Me, too!" type entry.

I've been mulling it over quite a bit; I don't think I can even try to take the place of Bend Bubble 2, though I'm willing to let the comments go crazy. Maybe I'll put up a heading once a week; Go Crazy. What do you think of this?

I find myself with blogs I want to write, blogs I would have written three years ago before I was aware of any impact, that I hold off publishing. Not because I'm afraid of everyone getting mad at me -- too late for that, in some cases -- but because I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings, or act like a know it all.

But I'm contemplating publishing some of those, a bit more often, and taking the chance.

Early on, I kept repeating, "Hey, this is my opinion. Of course! What do I know? I could be wrong! I don't have all the inside information, but this is how it looks to me...."

But that didn't seem to absolve me of all responsibility, I guess.

Still, maybe I can start every more controversial entry with exactly that statement above. I don't know, yet.

Sageness.

My aphasia afflicted Dad, (stroke), wrote the following letter to my big brother Mike.

"Dear Mike and Sherry
I had Susan take me to Tina's house and could hug her, kiss her and told her I loved her. She smiled and I thinked it was me.
Love Dad"

That's kind of funny and sad at the same time.

**********

As interesting to me as the content of the comments on websites like KTVZ and The Wandering Eye and mine, is which stories get comments and how many. Hard to predict. Well, maybe not so hard, there are some essay's that are guaranteed to get comments, but being as they are usually sex, religion, politics, or traffic, I try to avoid them.

But other than those subjects, I really don't know which ones are going to bring out the comments. Whatever grabs Buster, I suppose....

**********

City Councilor Jim Clinton wants to "cure" Bend's "Job Ill's" by creating a "Research center that would link high-tech companies with investors and universities and provide equipment and guidance for research and business development."

Well, that's certainly a worthy goal.

But just how is that going to be accomplished?

It's a bit like me saying, I want to increase my business by creating a "store center that would link high-end product with customers who want to buy high-end product."

Well, sure. But just how do I do that in a cost-effective manner? Expanding to a bigger space, for instance, isn't just a matter of finding a bigger and cheaper space, but also of finding reliable and long-term employees. Of not losing the customers I have, trying to reach for customers I don't have. Of not spending so much money on the project, on start-up or moving costs, that I never recoup the money in my career.

Advertising, for instance, may be reach people, but is it cost-effective?

If you want to "link" with universities and investors", don't you need to have "universities and investors?"

The biggest problem I see with his plan is that there are so many places that can do what he's talking about so much easier. Places with colleges, for instance. Or more access to the rest of the world.

In other words, it's like saying, "What we need are higher paying jobs!"

Well, of course. Just like I need higher paying customers.

Really, I'm not panning the idea, just questioning whether a bunch of money is going to be thrown at a problem that is not so easily solved.

Juniper Ridge, anyone?

**********

I'm going to include the FedEx office downtown to my roll of 'new' businesses, though it occupies a gray area between retail and office services. But unlike most offices, it will bring a lot of foot-traffic downtown, and there were be some purchasing going on...

**********

Friday, January 1, 2010

Reminisce-inary Times.

I've been very nostalgic, lately.

Tis the season.

It started stupidly enough by watching the "Greatest One Hit Wonders" a week or so ago. Not only is this a huge waste of time, but it has zero content. Like sitting down and eating a huge bag of candy. The only bigger waste of time would've been to not Tivo it, and have to sit through the commercials.

But that apparently started something, which kicked into high gear yesterday.

I went on a bit of a channel-changing frenzy. I avoided most of the "Best of....." lists, whether it was 10, 40, or 100 best rock or video's or country songs or....

Hah!

But then, I ran into the Kidnapping of Patty Heart; caught a section where it talks about how unique it was that the SLA used---gasp -- audio tapes to make their demands. Spool tapes, which I'll bet some of you younger folk have never seen.

I warned you, this is all nostalgia.

Ran across Clockwork Orange, which I would've watched all the way through if it hadn't already been one third over, and as usual I was caught by how futuristic the whole movie seemed. Sure, he had cassette tapes in his bedroom, but they are Futuristic looking cassette tapes!

I did watch the Bio of the Mary Tyler Moore show all the way through. This was like eating a bag of donuts. Again, almost completely content free. But...it really brought back the memories. I realized halfway through that -- while I say my Dad didn't watch any sitcoms -- that he did watch MTM.

Finally, I ran into the 4 hours (?) of Rock and Roll Hall of Fame 25th Ann. Concert at Madison Square Garden.

How cow!

I'd heard about this in the background noise of my pop-culture browsings, but hadn't really realized what it was. I think I read some twitters about the odd pairings of artists, but Wow.

This was a Woodstock like line-up. Even the oldies acts were great. I have a theory that the old rock stars treat the old blues stars with such reverence because they see these old guys still playing great music and these rock stars don't want to join PBS's series of "oldies" concerts just yet.

I missed the first half hour or so, but started with Crosby, Stills and Nash, who still sound great, Jackson Browne, Bonnie Raitt, James Taylor.

Moved on to Paul Simon, and then Garfunkel, and got all emotional listening to Sounds of Silence and thinking of my sister. (I drank a bit of wine last night, too...) They played Here Comes the Sun "For you, George!" Little Anthony and the Imperials.

I got a kick out of the Metallica section, who didn't hold back any punches, and had Lou Reed, Ozzie Osbourne, and Ray Davies (Kinks) join them. It seemed out of place at first, but hell, it's supposed to be Rock and Roll, man, and they won me over and I think they won over the crowd.

Stevie Wonder and Sting and and Smokey Robinson and B.B. King. A little ragged. I think Stevie forget some of the lyrics.

I started to realize that this had to be a melding of two different nights. Each night with a soft rock section, a rhythm and blues section, each night with a hard rock section, and each night finishing with the super-group section.

Aretha Franklin, with an assist from Annie Lennox.

We're getting toward Midnight, and on comes U2. Ah, hah. I think. They've built to the biggest act of all. We get 'Because the Night', with Springsteen, Bono, and Patti Smith.

I'd just watched the POV special on Patti Smith earlier in the week, and Linda, who didn't know a thing about her had heard an interview on NPR and was interested. (Linda doesn't know who half the acts are -- just not her thing....) had watched most of it with me.

It was cool to see Patti Smith holding her own against Bono and Springsteen.

These guys all have huge ego's -- er, stage presence....and none of them were cutting any of the others any slack.

So, I think, Springsteen and Bono, that has to be the Ultimate. On comes Mick Jagger, and Fergie, and they have a rollicking finish.

Still an hour to go?

Must have had another big finish on the second night.

A change of pace.

On comes Jeff Beck, who plays with Buddy Guy, and a tribute to Jimmy Hendricks, and then a very cool guitar solo of the Beatles. Almost the best part of the night. Jeff Beck just really has it, and it reminded me that none of these acts had lost their edge, no matter the age.

Finally, for the big finish it was Springsteen again, with Darlene Love, and John Fogerty singing Pretty Woman, and Sam Moore, with the last songs being New York State of Mind, with Billy Joel, and...my favorite song of all time, Born to Run.

Couldn't argue with any of it. These are my guys -- the guys I buy, the guys I listen to. I felt incredibly nostalgic, and I'm ready to break out all my old records and tapes and/or buy CD's.

Yeah, yeah, I should be Ipoding.

I have CD players. But they're Futuristic looking CD players!