Slept almost nine hours on Tuesday night and almost ten hours on Christmas Eve.

 

We've been incredibly busy at the store. Hit our target goals and surpassed them with six days left in the month. It looks like snow is coming, but let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! We're good and I'm grateful and amazed by how popular Pegasus Books is right now. I'm getting a lot of kudos for being a survivor. I think people like the continuity of it all.

 

When I write down the book titles I'm selling, I always joke, "My up-to-date inventory system," to which almost every person says, "I love it."

 

I'm snuggled in the old analog nostalgia zone. Clunky cash register, paper books, and tabletop games. 

  

Thank you, everyone. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

 

 

I'm posting the above on Facebook, both personal and store. I don't think it's bragging.

 

 

This is the first Christmas I can remember where we don't have family over or are visiting family. I don't miss it one little bit. Shows I'm a true introvert, I guess. But also, I can relax totally and completely.  

 

 

It's hilariously confounding that I'm not allowed to post comments on some Reddit threads because "You don't have enough comments..." 

So strange.

 

When I was 30 and struggling with my writing I had an epiphany. I realized that, even if I succeeded in publishing more books, it was very likely that the income would be modest at best. I had the examples in front of me of people who had given over the lives to an artistic pursuit without any supplemental income and could see that it hadn't been very lucrative. Most of them were living very frugally, supported by their wives to some extent. And these were the people I considered professional.

It finally dawned on me that even as getting published was long odds, becoming financially successful as a writer was beyond long odds. Daunting odds.  

So given the chance, I bought the store. Admittedly, I thought I could also write. (Queue the image of me sitting at the counter writing my books while taking in money.) 

Oh, the naivety! The store sucked up every bit of energy I had plus. 

Finally, after 28 years, I found Sabrina, who I could trust to take care of the store while I went home and wrote. I thought, maybe one book or two, depending on how things went. Eight years and 22 books later, I finally had my fill of writing.

Because I wasn't depending on it to  live, I was able the write what I wanted to write and when I wanted. I found publishers for most of what I wrote and ended up with good reviews. I made what seems to me a decent amount of money, though nowhere near enough to live on longterm.

Besides, it was important to me that the books had good covers and excellent editing and those two things, plus research travel, soaked up most of the profits, which I don't regret. It was a great experience, I satisfied myself that I could write a book worth reading. 

I came back to the store thinking I would probably get back to writing. Five years later I'm enjoying the store and haven't felt the urge to write. Thing is, for me to write requires all my attention. Every bit of it. As much as liked writing, that one fact keeps me from jumping back in...for now.

I've got a year left in the store, then Linda and I want to do some traveling, and by the time that is done, I'll be a doddering old fool. Or even more of a doddering old fool...

Anyway, what prompted this is going back to my early realization that making a living as a writer would be hard. I have a number of Facebook friends who were full-time writers, many of them I consider to be well-established. And as I noticed when I was 30 years old, most of them are living frugal lives. Some are OK, but others are struggling with things like medical bills, maintenance of homes and vehicles, and so on.

So I think maybe I made the write/right choice. I enjoyed the novels I wrote without the anxiety of making them pay so it was almost completely a pleasant experience.  

Beware of false profits.

Right or wrong, I've decided to keep the store fully stocked till the end of the year. We've already set aside 2/3rds of the profit we were hoping to achieve. 

Sales may well cover the difference and give us even more, but I'm not going to change the goalposts. If business falls of drastically because of weather, I'll rethink it. 

I'm doing this because there is no point loading early next year with the need to buy more stuff. I'd rather the expense went into this year because I'm pretty certain next year won't be as spectacular. So it may save me a couple thousand in taxes. 

There's the temptation to let orders slide at the height of Christmas. The stuff probably won't arrive soon enough to make much difference. Sales are going to be high, either way. Customers understand that you'll be running out of some material.

But then all that happens is that you need to reorder during two of the slowest months of the year, January and February.  

I mean, there is no reason to starve the store for false profits.  

"How do you have so much Pokemon and Magic!"

People come into the store and comment: "Nobody else has Pokemon! How do you have so much of it?"

To which I answer, "I'm really good at this..."

I'm only half joking. After 43 years and multiple booms and busts, I've gained enough experience to know what to do and what not to do. I've learned the game. 

There are some common factors in all booms.

1.) When a product becomes hot, the difficulty becomes not in selling it but in getting enough of it to sell.

2.) You can't just jump onto a hot product unless you already have a path open to you. This means you need to develop good relationships with wholesalers. Too many retailers spend all their time looking for the cheapest deal. But what's more important is having someone who can deliver product to you at a reasonable price and in reasonable quantities. If you're looking for the cheapest all the time, you're not really gaining any credit from a wholesaler. I learned a long time ago that the relationship between you and the wholesaler is a lot more important than getting the cheapest rate. Honesty and integrity and reliability are worth more than a few margins points. 

3.) Once you understand something is hot (and sometimes there are subtle hints ahead of time that experience has taught me) then you order as much as you can. If it's allocated, you take the full allocation. Every time. 

4.) If it is offered again, even if at a higher price, you don't hesitate. You buy what's offered. This is where most retailers make a mistake. They hesitate. They want to see what will happen, or they wait until it fits into their budget. They look around to see if they can get it cheaper. But if you have a reliable wholesaler, you have to trust that they know what's happening and respond accordingly. He who hesitates is lost.

5.) Don't just stop with just what they offer. Often, when something first becomes hot, there is some secondary product that is older or wasn't as much of a success. You try to buy that before they change their minds. When a product becomes hot, the old and slow become much more attractive, especially since there is an even greater chance that no one else will have it. 

6.) I've learned--through much trial and error--that it is more important to actually have the product than to be the cheapest price. There is such a thing as supply and demand and you ignore that at your peril. If you try to sell at the original price, you will be instantly bought out. You have to find a price between what you can afford to sell it for and a price that will discouraged the scalpers from buying you out. It's important to point out that the buyer always has a choice to buy or not to buy. If you realize they don't know about the hotness you tell them it's at "market price" and they might find it cheaper if they get lucky. I always respond mildly to anyone questioning a higher price (which actually doesn't happen that often, but I fear it because of my sportcard experience): "I always encourage you to buy wherever you find it cheapest." And I mean that. 

7.) Don't be in a hurry as a retailer to sell out. This is probably the second biggest mistake most retailers make. They are so accustomed to quick sell outs--which in most product, especially product you can get more of, is the smart way to do things. But if you can't get more, or you can't get more at the original price, then immediately selling out isn't a bonus. In a sense, you want to have your cake and eat it too. You want people to come back, you want them to say to you, (to come full circle)  "Nobody else has this! How do you have so much of it?"

8.) You just keep buying it every chance you have, especially if it's a product that will still have a shelf life after the market has cooled. You will just be selling it slower someday, but that's all right. (You don't have to order it again, which is nice.) The watchword is: Supply always catches up to demand. So if it's product that is simply a fad, be very careful. In fact, get out before the peak. (But that is a whole nother subject, and another thing that experience has taught me.)

Fortunately, Pokemon and Magic both have their ups and downs, but there is very little chance they'll disappear completely.  

 

Discount isn't everything.

I'm not sure what's happening with my budgeting. The Pokemon product is piling in the door, not that I'm complaining. I think it's going to be a huge seller this Christmas. I'm also ordering just about every book title I want, every day. 

Meanwhile, my new schedule is becoming kind of routine.  

For most of my life I've stayed up past midnight. My routine until about a year ago was to go to bed around 12:30, wake up around 8:00, go into the store around noon a couple times a week and put stock books for four hours or so. Twice a week I'd spend four hours or so in the evenings making orders. On Sundays,  I'd go into work behind the counter, to get a feel for what's happening.

But we have become so busy that I simply can't stock the store during store hours. Too many people! 

Now I'm going to bed around 10:30, waking up at 6:00, getting to the store and putting away book by 7:30, getting it done in a couple of hours, and driving home before the store even opens. Then each night, right after the store closes, I spend an hour ordering the books we sold that day.

I admit I'm a little tired, but I think that is due more to the sleep time change than from the work. The work has become easier and much less stressful. I think this is the routine I'm going to maintain this transitional year.

Last year I was offered a deal from Penguin Random House that I could order all the books I wanted and it would all be returnable. I'd give up about 12% on discount, but I wouldn't be stuck with dead product.  While I was at it, I set up accounts with Scholastic, Simon and Shuster, and Harper Collins, three more of the top six publishers in the country.

It didn't work. Having more copies didn't sell more books. The ordering systems to the latter three publishers was unwieldy, time-consuming, unpredictable, and slow.  Even though I was getting a 10% better discount, it wasn't helping the profits. 

So this year I decided to focus on PRH and Ingram again, both of which have handy ordering systems and are predictable. I gave up the returnability with PRH and regained the 12% margin I'd lost. But PRH was still incredible slow. I was waiting ten days to two weeks for product to arrive: 10% off of product you don't actually have in stock isn't much help, you know?

Then they seemed to slow down even more. So when this summer hit, I decided to focus on Ingram for everything I could. Yes, I was paying 10% more, but they were easy to deal with, they were predictable, and they were fast. There is an warehouse in Oregon that can get shipments to you the very next day if you order before noon. 

As it turned it, it was a major win: with only nine weeks of full-on summer business, PRH didn't deliver most of their product in July and August until three or even four weeks passed. Fortunately, I'd already sent my business to Ingram. At some point in August, I started getting stuff from Reno, a warehouse that I didn't even know PRH had. Turns out the warehouse in NY was over their head. Not only that, the stuff from Reno showed up in a few days.

I've been getting my books from warehouses in New York!  So I get on the phone to my rep and request that I get my books from Reno. 

"You are a comic account, so you can only get it from NY."

"Yes, I order comics, but I order five times more books!"

"Sorry, nothing we can do."  

So guess what? We had a spectacular summer ordering from Ingram. We're having a record year. I'm doing the same thing this Christmas and it's become SO much easier to get books in on a timely basis. 

In other words, I'm selling so many more books, with so much less stress and effort, that the 10% extra discount becomes secondary.  

If the publishers figure out how to get books to me faster, with the information I need to budget correctly, and don't make me jump through so many hoops just to do orders, we'll revisit the situation. Meanwhile, I'm pretty happy with the way things are going.  

 

I'm visibly aging. I noticed big dark bags under my eyes yesterday. I think some of that is due to my new sleep schedule which I'm still adjusting to, if I ever do. (It's not my natural circadian rhythm.) My skin is very thin and spotty. 

On the other hand, I've mostly kept the weight off. I seem to have very good flexibility, super-excellent balance, and I'm still fairly strong. I move fast and confidently. 

Mentally, my memory is definitely not as good as it was. But I can counter that with how well the business is doing, and how often my memory is called into use. We're at least 20% better than our best year ever, so I'm doing something right. Mostly it's experience, luck with the product, and trusting my instincts more than ever. 

I've had a couple of incidents at intersections lately. In both cases, there are reasons and doubts that it may not have been something I did. But even if none of it was my fault, I've always approached driving as if it doesn't matter whose fault it is, what matters is avoiding an accident. I was driving this morning through the intersection of Bond and Greenwood and remembered having an incident 25 years ago when they changed the lane layout. 

In other words, I may just be extra conscious of lapses, which have always happened but wasn't something I attributed to age before. The same holds true of all the memory issues. Is it really so much worse or am I just noticing it more? (Actually, I do realize my memory isn't as good at is was...but how much worse is the question.)

So I'm not going to borrow trouble from the future. I was worried about retirement, but I've can't put it off any longer, so what's the point of worrying? 

The history of Bend that really should be remembered correctly.

One of my ways of practicing retirement is to go along with Linda on her little errands, which generally turn into much longer errands. Sat at Costco waiting for a pizza and chatting with an old couple. Old couples seem to have a club of some kind. Linda said the lady said a prayer for Trump, so I'm glad I wasn't sitting at the time and overtly leaving out the "Amen."

Earlier in the day, we checked out the Backporch here in Redmond which seemed in a very out of the way place but was obviously getting business from the neighborhood. So while we're sitting there we're talking about how big Redmond has gotten.

So I decided once and for all to check the populations of Bend and Redmond in 1970, 1980, and 1990. 

So 1970 was exactly the way I remembered it my entire time of growing up. In other words, the 13K in population hadn't changed much in 15 years.

The 1980 population was a bit of a surprise; lower than I expected: about 17K. This despite having two new big malls built. (One of the reasons neither one of them ever became very profitable.) It did have the effect of emptying out downtown Bend, which allowed Pegasus to find a location for an affordable price.

1990: Here's what I want people to pay attention to. The population of Bend only grew about 3K people, in  a full decade, to a total of 20K. We had gotten a little ahead of ourselves and the Reagan recession hit hard. That's not much growth, and it was a real struggle not only for downtown but also for the two malls. What I remember is almost nothing being built in that decade. Instead, things seemed to get run down.

Flash forward and I'm thinking we're probably 120K by now, more or less, counting some of the suburbs. So Bend has grown by five times. Redmond has grown even faster: from  around 4K in 1970, and 6.5K in 1980, to about 42K today. 

That's the history of Bend that I think people should know. People need to realize how small and struggling Bend was back then. We tend to see it with rose colored glasses, but believe you me, it was hard to earn a living back then. 

As I tend to say now: Central Oregon has not only grown, we're a whole different animal.