What are you trying to prove?

 

I'm 40% the way through a long book and I'm suddenly losing interest. 

Years ago, I tried reading The Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. The premise I took away from it was that if one was the own and ride a motorcycle, it behooves you to know all about how a motorcycle works and to be able to fix it yourself. And that should apply to all aspects of your life.

Hooey. 

Screw that. I just want to ride a motorcycle. If I want it fixed, I'll take it to an expert. And that applies to all aspects of my life. I'll earn my money in my area of expertise and pay people for their area of expertise. That's more or less the definition of an economy. 

So I'm reading the book, "A Walk in the Park," about a complete walk-through the Grand Canyon, something that apparently few people have done. The first part of the book talks about the geology, the wildlife, the history and other interesting stuff about the area.

But about 40% of the way through, it suddenly becomes Extreme Sport, and boy, that turns me off.  

There's a recent picture of the traffic jam at the top of Mt. Everest. Why the fuck would anyone want to climb Mt. Everest now? Inexplicable to me. 

I'm not interested in super-techies, or super athletes, celebrity culture, etc.  Normal life and normal living, that the life for me. For fucks sake.

Are Pokemon and Magic becoming a bubble?

The thing about a bubble is that it's very difficult to know. Almost by definition, you're inside the bubble. You have to do a mental jujitsu where you purposely place yourself outside the bubble, which is easier said than done. But I'm going to try.

There are distinct signs of a bubble. Increasing brands, increasing gimmicks, increasing prices. People hoarding product, speculators, sell-outs when offered, influencers trying to get everyone excited, and so on. 

But the biggest indication of a bubble is more intuitive. Simply put: does this seem completely off-the-wall, batshit crazy?

Thing is, you really DO know it when you see it. 

For instance, the housing prices in Central Oregon are high and are rising. But, whereas I just KNEW there was a housing bubble in the early aughts that continued to get crazier and crazier, I don't think prices alone are an indication of a bubble. I think there is high demand currently in Central Oregon, and while the market is obviously being manipulated to some extent, it's nowhere near as nuts as it was back then.

Prices pretty much need to double and triple and quadruple in a short time for something to be a bubble to me. For instance, in early 1994, I realized that my comic orders were double in cost than what I'd earned in retail the previous year. (In other words, I was ordering 4 times the product to fill the presumed demand.)

I should have trusted my instincts.

I'd already been through one bubble in the late 80s. Sports cards had doubled each year for four years in a row, and then--for us at least--it collapsed. That was my first bubble. I always say, everyone gets one bubble that isn't their fault. All bubbles after that are on your own head.  

After the comic collapse, I got pretty canny about how to deal with bubbles. We did very well with pogs, beanie babies, and the first incarnation of Pokemon, because I understand the dynamics and was able to benefit without being hurt. 

Since then, while I've seen hot product come and go, I don't believe we've experienced a bubble since.

So far I'm coming down on the side of Magic and Pokemon being very hot, but I won't be entirely surprised if the market collapses. The difference is, like comics, there were be a continued demand for Pokemon and Magic, though perhaps at a much more steady pace.

I'm good with a steady pace. If I have to absorb the overstock for the next couple years--or even let Sabrina get the benefit later on--we'll be fine. We have the resources to withstand a collapse. 

Meanwhile, I admit I'm just as much a gambler as some of my customers; I just have more experience at it.

Mr. Know-it-All.

I decided for my last two years of owning Pegasus Books that I'd stick to a strict budget per week for product. It occurred to me the other day that there should be a way to keep track of this. The term "running average" came to mind and out of curiosity, I looked it up.  

Turns out, there's something called a "rolling average," exactly what I was looking for. 

Now I've tried to stick to budget for 40 years and never really succeeded. The way I did it was set the budget, write it down, and subtract until it was gone. But that only accounted for that week. Any time I spent less or more, slid under the radar. 

And of course, I often spent more (and sometimes less) so that way of accounting didn't really work.

The rolling average is such a simple concept, I'm stunned that I didn't think of it years ago. (I realize how stupid this makes me sound...)

My point is: how much don't I know? What simple formulas am I missing? 

For instance, would I have ever figured out the Break-Even point equation on my own? (Fixed overhead divided by profit margin. duh.) I was sort of doing this crudely when I was handed the equation by the guy up at COCC. I've used that equation ever since. 

So I'm sure there are plenty of useful business tricks that I simply don't understand. It took me years to figure out how to measure cash-flow for instance. I mean, I sort of understood it instinctively, but never really put all the parts together. Basically, you can say this about everything I know about business. I understand a hazy intuitive version of the truth which is enough to help me survive, but not the precise mechanisms to make it easy. At least, not at first.

Such stuff seems utterly obvious in hindsight, but I have had to figure them out all by myself. (One of the first things I had to learn was that just because everyone else seemed to be doing something didn't mean it would work for me.)

Would taking business classes or reading business books have helped? Based on my experience with business books, I doubt it. Sure, every 100th idea would be applicable to what I do, but I wouldn't know which idea works until I've already experienced it.

I had that experience with the only business book I ever felt helped me: "Growing a Business," by Paul Hawken. But even then, I only understood the book's value because I'd already experienced many of the pitfalls he was pointing out. 

The business guy up at COCC said I had a "primitive sophistication." I think this figuring stuff out on my own stuff is exactly that. But I don't know what I don't know.

My basic approach has been to to simplify everything as much as possible. When I look out at the world of bookstores, it seems like everyone else is taking the opposite approach. I'm comfortable with what I'm doing and it's working well--the last five years have been the best years by far. 

I'm an old dog, and I'm not really looking for new tricks now. But I really wish someone out there could cut through all the BS that business books and classes put out and give newcomers the simple equations and procedures that would help them survive. 

My guess is that not enough small business owners would buy such a book. 

Because we're all "Mr. Know-it-Alls."