Had a big day at the store, yesterday.
Huh.
For which I have no explanation whatsoever.
Good results in every category.
Sorry, I'm not going to miss the Winterfest at all (nor, Aaron Switzer is probably thinking, is Winterfest going to miss me....). But if what I want is good, solid foot traffic, it seems to me that I have way more than I ever expected.
A decade ago, I wouldn't have gotten over 100 people in the door unless it was a Holiday, and even then it was rare.
To get those numbers in early February just proves to me how much has changed.
Anyway, a good 'money' day as well, which sets me up nicely to reach my 'medium' scenario, and gives me a good chance to reach my high scenario....
A nice surprise.
**********
Got around to watching my Tivo'd Austin City Limits. Nick Lowe. His "Cruel to be Kind" is one of my favorite all time songs.
Shocker to see an old guy. But he gave what could only be called a virtuoso performance. Beautiful voice. With only him and a guitar.
Also, a song by the mythical Daniel Johnson, which I guess is a little like catching a glimpse of Bigfoot.
**********
Back to the store. I didn't really think about it much before I did it, but working the store everyday is paying bigger dividends than I expected.
I was thinking only about saving on wages and taxes.
But I'm also getting a good solid sense of the store, and it's a bit more positive than I had when I was taking so much time off.
Sure....there is the benefit of knowing my inventory, being able to respond to requests, knowing when to discount, getting a feel for who my current customers are (the biggest surprise, and one I'll probably talk about in the future) and just my overall sales ability that comes from experience.
On top of that, though, I'm finding that I'm getting a much more solid and secure grasp of what I need to reorder, and when. (I'm letting myself do direct ship reorders again, despite the cost, partly because I'm saving so much on wages....) Having a new lease nearly in grasp has freed me to take a few chances on ordering, which has already paid off in higher sales.
Higher 'gross' sales, I should say. Probably won't translate into higher 'profits,' because more risk is being taken. But keeping sales as far north of the break-even zone as possible isn't a bad goal. The higher my gross sales are, if and when the economy recovers -- I know, I know, may be years from now -- the less ground I have to make up.
**********
This is the first year I can remember that I haven't seen ANY of the Academy Award movies. We're going to go see Slumdog Millionaire this afternoon, so at least we'll have seen one.
**********
Back to the store. The first two weeks of working everyday were a little rough. Had like 3 uncomfortable incidents with customers. Feeling tired all the time.
Then it was as if I got my second wind. Started pacing myself. Relearned how to handle certain customers. It's been a breeze since. I actually like working everyday.
It turns out, I'm chaffing less from working everyday than I was not working everyday.
I must be a workaholic.
I like seeing if I can make it all work, and the economic challenges just make it all that much more interesting.
**********
I decided not to post my 'ego' entry, after all. I'm tempted to bury it in the past.
Has anyone else done that? Seems kind of silly.
But, it's like putting something in the archive, wanting it on record but not having to answer for it.
You know, because all my words are 'golden'. Sheesh. As if it really matters....
*********
Finally got my consignment order of the Watchmen. This title has got to be the best-selling graphic novel, ever. At least in my store. I thought I had more than enough, but at this pace I'll have to make yet another reorder before the movie.
I've taken to actually down-playing the book. Don't get me wrong, it's a great book. But it ain't the second-coming. It had an impact on the industry that has been diluted since by much much copying (being the sincerest form of flattery....)
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Saturday, February 7, 2009
Trophy wives run Amok.
It seems to me that getting a 'Trophy Wife' is it's own Karma.
Being totally in love with my wife after 25 years, I've never understood the attraction of changing. I wouldn't trade Linda for anything or anyone (well, maybe a young Bettie Page, but no one else!).
I know this phenomenon of older men and younger women has been around forever.
It's Biblical.
It's probably Biological.
It's almost always Bitter.
And I also don't doubt that sometimes such a pairing is True Love. Really, everyone reading this, I believe it's all real. So if any of you are reading this might take offense at this admittedly misanthropic entry, take leave now...
I always joke that I got my 'mid-life' crisis out of the way early. My 20's were pretty painful, with depression and flailing around and phobias and just general marginal living. But it also forced me to be very introspective, to confront my problems, and I hope I came out of it with a better understanding of myself.
So when I met Linda, I knew she was the one. The One.
Anyway, it seems to me that I'm seeing alot of carnage around here from Trophy Wives running amok. You've heard of the Old Wives Club? Well, the opposite is the Evil Wives Club.
Seems like there are guys who, instead of gracefully and comfortably growing into middle age, go out and get that little red sports car, and work out strenuously at the gym, and take up a dangerous new sport...and, yep, get that new little, younger wife.
Who has her eyes on bigger things. Bigger houses, more houses, why aren't we getting in on this once in a lifetime opportunity to get rich, rich, rich!!!
Leading to disaster, probably losing your life's work....and inevitably, the young wife as well.
Like I said, if there is such a thing as Karma (and I hope there is) then marrying a Trophy Wife is -- sometimes -- it's own Karma.
*****This one's going to get me in trouble, isn't it? Wait until you see tomorrow, might as well get the ego driven entries out of the way at the same time....****
Being totally in love with my wife after 25 years, I've never understood the attraction of changing. I wouldn't trade Linda for anything or anyone (well, maybe a young Bettie Page, but no one else!).
I know this phenomenon of older men and younger women has been around forever.
It's Biblical.
It's probably Biological.
It's almost always Bitter.
And I also don't doubt that sometimes such a pairing is True Love. Really, everyone reading this, I believe it's all real. So if any of you are reading this might take offense at this admittedly misanthropic entry, take leave now...
I always joke that I got my 'mid-life' crisis out of the way early. My 20's were pretty painful, with depression and flailing around and phobias and just general marginal living. But it also forced me to be very introspective, to confront my problems, and I hope I came out of it with a better understanding of myself.
So when I met Linda, I knew she was the one. The One.
Anyway, it seems to me that I'm seeing alot of carnage around here from Trophy Wives running amok. You've heard of the Old Wives Club? Well, the opposite is the Evil Wives Club.
Seems like there are guys who, instead of gracefully and comfortably growing into middle age, go out and get that little red sports car, and work out strenuously at the gym, and take up a dangerous new sport...and, yep, get that new little, younger wife.
Who has her eyes on bigger things. Bigger houses, more houses, why aren't we getting in on this once in a lifetime opportunity to get rich, rich, rich!!!
Leading to disaster, probably losing your life's work....and inevitably, the young wife as well.
Like I said, if there is such a thing as Karma (and I hope there is) then marrying a Trophy Wife is -- sometimes -- it's own Karma.
*****This one's going to get me in trouble, isn't it? Wait until you see tomorrow, might as well get the ego driven entries out of the way at the same time....****
"The tongue is a terrible tool..."
"The tongue is a terrible tool..." Anonymous commenter on the Sawyer thread on KTVZ.
Pure poetry, I tell you. Pure poetry.
Poor Barney. Trying to provide a public service, and getting --- Angry illiterate comments. I don't know if you're reading this Barney, but my advice is to go ahead and Moderate the Comments.
But don't Moderate the Moderation.
Don't feed the trolls.
Yours,
Dunc.
Pure poetry, I tell you. Pure poetry.
Poor Barney. Trying to provide a public service, and getting --- Angry illiterate comments. I don't know if you're reading this Barney, but my advice is to go ahead and Moderate the Comments.
But don't Moderate the Moderation.
Don't feed the trolls.
Yours,
Dunc.
Back to the Future city council.
Don't know what to make of the Oran Teater appointment to the city council.
I have no inside knowledge, only what I read in the paper.
Certainly smacks of a certain pragmatism, but also of the 'old boy network.'
I personally think it might have been a good thing to have a local election, and really have a full discussion about the future of Bend. Without the distraction of that guy....what's his name, Obama?...on the ballot.
13k doesn't seem like that much money to get a true sounding on the local sentiments. Then again, the situation is so murky and the motivations so convoluted, that a true sounding was unlikely.
Both Teater and Eckman were players in the elements that led up to the boom.
But you get the sense that the 'old boy network' was a little horrified by what happened over the last few years.
I think they'll try to keep Juniper Ridge alive, without bankrupting the town, cut BAT without losing the 'grant' money, and otherwise be a bit more prudent with spending projects. And I think they'll be accommodating to the real estate interests, without being too obvious about it.
I'm not sure it will matter. I think it likely that the revenues streams will shrink to such an extent that either BAT or Juniper Ridge will have to go; or at the least, be put into mothballs.
I wish them luck.
I have no inside knowledge, only what I read in the paper.
Certainly smacks of a certain pragmatism, but also of the 'old boy network.'
I personally think it might have been a good thing to have a local election, and really have a full discussion about the future of Bend. Without the distraction of that guy....what's his name, Obama?...on the ballot.
13k doesn't seem like that much money to get a true sounding on the local sentiments. Then again, the situation is so murky and the motivations so convoluted, that a true sounding was unlikely.
Both Teater and Eckman were players in the elements that led up to the boom.
But you get the sense that the 'old boy network' was a little horrified by what happened over the last few years.
I think they'll try to keep Juniper Ridge alive, without bankrupting the town, cut BAT without losing the 'grant' money, and otherwise be a bit more prudent with spending projects. And I think they'll be accommodating to the real estate interests, without being too obvious about it.
I'm not sure it will matter. I think it likely that the revenues streams will shrink to such an extent that either BAT or Juniper Ridge will have to go; or at the least, be put into mothballs.
I wish them luck.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Shoulder angels (and devils.)
This is a dangerous time for me.
It's akin to quitting smoking for a month, and thinking one little cigarette wouldn't hurt.
Or dieting for a month, and rewarding myself with a nice creamy chocolate eclair.
Going into this recession, I've managed not to spend savings or incur debt. I've even managed to stay in the black (at least so far) as it deepens into what I think will be a "Bend Depression."
One of the reasons I've been so disciplined is because I knew that I needed a new lease. I thought if I had to move, I'd probably use all my savings and a goodly part of my credit, and I would need what credit was left in case it didn't work out. If I can get that issue settled, and its looking good, I will feel much more secure.
So...now it's more a matter of paying bills through the rest of winter and spring, and heck, even there I'm almost 2/5ths of the way.
(See how temptation makes the time conflate? Only the 6th of the month, but in my mind February is already done, you know, because orders take time to arrive, and then there's time to pay the bill and all....get thee off my shoulder, you little red devil!)
Oh, and there's new competition, but maybe if I stock up on every variety of Magic I can, I can still keep a good part of the business.
(Begone, tempter!)
Or...gee, books sure are selling well. Here's a list of really good books I can get! And they're on sale! What would it hurt?
( Wait a minute....why you!... brushes shoulder vigorously.)
And so on.
On my other shoulder is a stern faced little angel. Patience, it counsels. You will be rewarded for your patience.
(Wow, you really are a bore, you little goody two shoes....)
The angel is unfazed -- You can always get it later, it says. There are always deals.
(You really are a killjoy, I grumble.)
The little angel has help this time, convincing me. My major supplier, Diamond, is moving their warehouse from Kentucky to Missouri, and will be unavailable for special orders for two weeks.
Which is akin to quitting smoking, and then breaking down and going to the store and finding the doors locked.
Also, if I wait two weeks, all the charges will go into March credit card billing period, and since March is one of the quarterly months onto which I tack an extra week, it's an even better time to wait.
Day to day, baby!
On the longer horizon, I'm also thinking about what will happen when this economy recovers -- be it 2, 4, or 6 years from now. The big new Oxford Hotel will be coming along, as well as the retail around that block, and it doesn't appear to me (so far) like downtown will empty out or the foot traffic will suddenly stop, so....
...it would be nice to have some liquidity the next time there is a leverage event.
The last few times that opportunity arose, I was so deep in debt that I spent most of the upsurge just catching up.
Just once I'd like the opportunity to really take advantage of a 'hot' market, without having to borrow money to do it. It's going to be a long wait, perhaps, but maybe I can start to save up for it.
I'd much rather earn the money and spend it, than spend the money and hope I can earn it back.
I wonder what that would feel like....
It's akin to quitting smoking for a month, and thinking one little cigarette wouldn't hurt.
Or dieting for a month, and rewarding myself with a nice creamy chocolate eclair.
Going into this recession, I've managed not to spend savings or incur debt. I've even managed to stay in the black (at least so far) as it deepens into what I think will be a "Bend Depression."
One of the reasons I've been so disciplined is because I knew that I needed a new lease. I thought if I had to move, I'd probably use all my savings and a goodly part of my credit, and I would need what credit was left in case it didn't work out. If I can get that issue settled, and its looking good, I will feel much more secure.
So...now it's more a matter of paying bills through the rest of winter and spring, and heck, even there I'm almost 2/5ths of the way.
(See how temptation makes the time conflate? Only the 6th of the month, but in my mind February is already done, you know, because orders take time to arrive, and then there's time to pay the bill and all....get thee off my shoulder, you little red devil!)
Oh, and there's new competition, but maybe if I stock up on every variety of Magic I can, I can still keep a good part of the business.
(Begone, tempter!)
Or...gee, books sure are selling well. Here's a list of really good books I can get! And they're on sale! What would it hurt?
( Wait a minute....why you!... brushes shoulder vigorously.)
And so on.
On my other shoulder is a stern faced little angel. Patience, it counsels. You will be rewarded for your patience.
(Wow, you really are a bore, you little goody two shoes....)
The angel is unfazed -- You can always get it later, it says. There are always deals.
(You really are a killjoy, I grumble.)
The little angel has help this time, convincing me. My major supplier, Diamond, is moving their warehouse from Kentucky to Missouri, and will be unavailable for special orders for two weeks.
Which is akin to quitting smoking, and then breaking down and going to the store and finding the doors locked.
Also, if I wait two weeks, all the charges will go into March credit card billing period, and since March is one of the quarterly months onto which I tack an extra week, it's an even better time to wait.
Day to day, baby!
On the longer horizon, I'm also thinking about what will happen when this economy recovers -- be it 2, 4, or 6 years from now. The big new Oxford Hotel will be coming along, as well as the retail around that block, and it doesn't appear to me (so far) like downtown will empty out or the foot traffic will suddenly stop, so....
...it would be nice to have some liquidity the next time there is a leverage event.
The last few times that opportunity arose, I was so deep in debt that I spent most of the upsurge just catching up.
Just once I'd like the opportunity to really take advantage of a 'hot' market, without having to borrow money to do it. It's going to be a long wait, perhaps, but maybe I can start to save up for it.
I'd much rather earn the money and spend it, than spend the money and hope I can earn it back.
I wonder what that would feel like....
Adrift....
"It's quiet out there."
"Yeah, too quiet."
FLIEEETHT! (Arrow quivering in back...)
It's very hard to get a read on things right now. I looked out the window the other day, and there were 10 parking spots in front of my store (out of 12). This was about 4:00 in the afternoon, and I can't remember the last time that had happened.
Next day, after a very slow couple of hours, I looked out and they were all full.
I've hit my average for the month so far, but it's been almost all comics. Some of my subscribers have been trickling in and picking up their shelves. This is reassuring, since they really are the base of my store -- but the numbers on everything else are way down.
Comments on the BB2 this week so far, are a measly 200 in number. Bend Economy Board seems to have even less traffic.
Congress continues to play politics, and I'm disgusted with both sides. The Democrats have undoubtedly poured tons of pork on the barbie, and may not be doing due diligence (again) while the Republicans seem to think corporate tax breaks are a good idea.
I really don't want to get into a political discussion, here. I'm just registering my disgust.
I just think there isn't much clarity in the situation right now. As though everyone's waiting for another shoe to drop.
I personally believe there might be another level to drop. The people on top, the Davos people, the economists on Charlie Rose, the economy blogs I pay attention to, are so much more dire than before, it makes you wonder.
I don't believe that just because they all agree, they must be wrong. That seems like magical thinking to me, just as believing that if they all agreed in the opposite direction they must be wrong.
Anecdotally, I'm hearing of more and more layoffs and hours cut. Microsemi layed their people off for the week, for instance. I'm also losing customers to out-of-town work, more and more.
I think this is the kind of economy where clear-cut bad things could happen, but anything good is probably happening behind the scenes and incrementally.
So we just need to keep muddling through.
"Yeah, too quiet."
FLIEEETHT! (Arrow quivering in back...)
It's very hard to get a read on things right now. I looked out the window the other day, and there were 10 parking spots in front of my store (out of 12). This was about 4:00 in the afternoon, and I can't remember the last time that had happened.
Next day, after a very slow couple of hours, I looked out and they were all full.
I've hit my average for the month so far, but it's been almost all comics. Some of my subscribers have been trickling in and picking up their shelves. This is reassuring, since they really are the base of my store -- but the numbers on everything else are way down.
Comments on the BB2 this week so far, are a measly 200 in number. Bend Economy Board seems to have even less traffic.
Congress continues to play politics, and I'm disgusted with both sides. The Democrats have undoubtedly poured tons of pork on the barbie, and may not be doing due diligence (again) while the Republicans seem to think corporate tax breaks are a good idea.
I really don't want to get into a political discussion, here. I'm just registering my disgust.
I just think there isn't much clarity in the situation right now. As though everyone's waiting for another shoe to drop.
I personally believe there might be another level to drop. The people on top, the Davos people, the economists on Charlie Rose, the economy blogs I pay attention to, are so much more dire than before, it makes you wonder.
I don't believe that just because they all agree, they must be wrong. That seems like magical thinking to me, just as believing that if they all agreed in the opposite direction they must be wrong.
Anecdotally, I'm hearing of more and more layoffs and hours cut. Microsemi layed their people off for the week, for instance. I'm also losing customers to out-of-town work, more and more.
I think this is the kind of economy where clear-cut bad things could happen, but anything good is probably happening behind the scenes and incrementally.
So we just need to keep muddling through.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Local tidbits.
Nothing big happening, but lots of local small tidbits.
SMART LANDLORDS AND BUSY SHOE GUYS.
The cover story in the Bulletin about Jerry Opie and the Sole Shop was interesting. He was my neighbor downtown for 20 years. He's a wealth of information about downtown Bend.
He was in my store a couple of days ago, reminding me of the time that I signed a rent increase in my store, only to get it back a few days later with a rent decrease. Apparently the owner had tossed it back to the management company with the command..."lower it."
Jerry said there was a 60% vacancy rate downtown (I've always used the figure 40%) but that our building's 7 spaces were always 100% occupied.
BACK THE PROGRESSIVE?
It seemed to me that our choices in the city council last time were between the greedy and the really, really greedy. The stupid, and the really, really stupid.
Some people seem to think it a foregone conclusion that Leonard is going to win because he's got money backing him, but I think maybe, just maybe, the voters are paying attention this time.
It will be interesting to see which direction they'll turn.
I'm not terribly clear about the intentions of the different factions. I suspect that the Eckman faction will be both more price cutting (but not much), but also more developer supporting. The other faction, (Capell faction?) I believe, might be the opposite; supporting wasteful programs, but trying to tamp down on developers (but not much.)
What we need is half of each: price cutting, and developer resistant. But we'll probably get the opposite: developer accommodating and BAT and Juniper Ridge supporting.
A down to earth, independent minded councilor is what we really need.
Hard to see how that's going to happen.
MERENDA REVIVAL?
Or 900 Wall.
I don't understand the appeal of restaurants with numbers in the title, but whatever...
This is pretty much the 'hermit crab' scenario I've been talking about. Shed most of the most onerous costs, and the place might have chance. It's still awfully big, but...the fact that it's being bought by the former manager bodes well.
I bought my store after managing it for a year, and hit the ground running. As smart as the previous owner had been (as he's shown by his great success in starting Dark Horse Comics) he hadn't been doing the job with Pegasus Books for a year or two. Being able to make the financial decisions helped get the store back on it's feet.
ROOM TAXES PLUNGE.
28% in Bend? That's a huge number, but it fits right in with the 20 to 30% drops that I believe most retail has suffered in Bend.
YARROW. BOTH BIGGER AND CHEAPER.
The Yarrow development in Madras has increased the sizes of their Phase One lots to roughly twice the size, and lowered the price by 2/3rds.
They try to put a positive spin on it, but those are pretty stark numbers.
**********
And finally, things are looking pretty positive on the leasing front for Pegasus. I don't want to go into details until it's all signed and delivered, but it does look as though good, 'ol Pegasus Books will be around for another 4.5 years....
SMART LANDLORDS AND BUSY SHOE GUYS.
The cover story in the Bulletin about Jerry Opie and the Sole Shop was interesting. He was my neighbor downtown for 20 years. He's a wealth of information about downtown Bend.
He was in my store a couple of days ago, reminding me of the time that I signed a rent increase in my store, only to get it back a few days later with a rent decrease. Apparently the owner had tossed it back to the management company with the command..."lower it."
Jerry said there was a 60% vacancy rate downtown (I've always used the figure 40%) but that our building's 7 spaces were always 100% occupied.
BACK THE PROGRESSIVE?
It seemed to me that our choices in the city council last time were between the greedy and the really, really greedy. The stupid, and the really, really stupid.
Some people seem to think it a foregone conclusion that Leonard is going to win because he's got money backing him, but I think maybe, just maybe, the voters are paying attention this time.
It will be interesting to see which direction they'll turn.
I'm not terribly clear about the intentions of the different factions. I suspect that the Eckman faction will be both more price cutting (but not much), but also more developer supporting. The other faction, (Capell faction?) I believe, might be the opposite; supporting wasteful programs, but trying to tamp down on developers (but not much.)
What we need is half of each: price cutting, and developer resistant. But we'll probably get the opposite: developer accommodating and BAT and Juniper Ridge supporting.
A down to earth, independent minded councilor is what we really need.
Hard to see how that's going to happen.
MERENDA REVIVAL?
Or 900 Wall.
I don't understand the appeal of restaurants with numbers in the title, but whatever...
This is pretty much the 'hermit crab' scenario I've been talking about. Shed most of the most onerous costs, and the place might have chance. It's still awfully big, but...the fact that it's being bought by the former manager bodes well.
I bought my store after managing it for a year, and hit the ground running. As smart as the previous owner had been (as he's shown by his great success in starting Dark Horse Comics) he hadn't been doing the job with Pegasus Books for a year or two. Being able to make the financial decisions helped get the store back on it's feet.
ROOM TAXES PLUNGE.
28% in Bend? That's a huge number, but it fits right in with the 20 to 30% drops that I believe most retail has suffered in Bend.
YARROW. BOTH BIGGER AND CHEAPER.
The Yarrow development in Madras has increased the sizes of their Phase One lots to roughly twice the size, and lowered the price by 2/3rds.
They try to put a positive spin on it, but those are pretty stark numbers.
**********
And finally, things are looking pretty positive on the leasing front for Pegasus. I don't want to go into details until it's all signed and delivered, but it does look as though good, 'ol Pegasus Books will be around for another 4.5 years....
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
