Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Has Obama fixed things yet?

The business climate seems pretty inexorable right now.

I noticed another 'For Lease' sign in a window on the way to the parking garage last night; the store next to it had a 50% off everything sign, which is never good.

My list of stores leaving downtown Bend has hit about 16, stores opening about 6. The Bulletin pegged the vacancy rate downtown at only 5%, which seems low unless we started with an even lower rate.

Got a call from the only other comic dealer I talk to on a regular basis; he has a similar situation and longevity. He was feeling kind of down about things -- the downturn caught him more unprepared, I think. We seem to leapfrog each other a lot. I'll have a few good years and then retreat; then he'll have a few good years and then retreat.

He's more dependent on games than I am, and I think games are having a hard time of it.

I'm actually looking forward to the Magic store opening downtown, because I'm hoping he can get some activity going.

The comics press has been in denial about comics mostly; being mostly comic people, they are defensive about it. But I think comics are down, despite what the statistics they feed the media say. The statistics reflect sales to retailers, not customers, and I'm guessing the retailers had a less than stellar last quarter.

Diamond distributer, a de facto monopoly, has raised the limits on independents, which is causing a lot of concern since smaller publishers already are struggling.

It just makes me want to push into books even more and even faster.

Modern technology and modern media make everything uncertain right now. The Bulletin had two articles today; how not to spend money, and how to trade books online for free.

But none of the product I sell, or indeed, none of the product I could sell, is immune from change.

So I have to look to my own business model, and try to maneuver my way through the mess.

As I was telling Tim, yesterday, about how a used bookstore is dependent on what books people bring in, so too will such "Free" arrangements. So too with things like Kindle.

My store, being in a foot traffic heavy, tourist heavy area, needs to be designed to pick up the impulse reader. Just present them with so many good books, that they can't resist. (Because in the back of their minds, many people will know it ain't that easy, and they just won't want to wait.)

But no matter what kind of store I try to design, the point will be to try to find ways to endure in the face of constant change.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Going whole bookhog.

Once again, I find myself going in the opposite direction as everyone else. I can't tell you the number of times this has happened. I'm gearing up, just as everyone else is gearing down; or I'm gearing down, just as everyone is gearing up.

I'm not totally sure why myself. Perhaps it's arrogance and hubris. "Pride goeth before the fall."

But what better time to proclaim yourself as healthy and raring to go? Let others cut back on their offering, I will actually increase mine.

I just ordered near 6000.00 worth of novels, in retail.

I'll try to explain why.

1.) My budget can handle it.

I've ordered everything in all the other categories of the store, and feel well stocked. I saved books for last. When I added all my finances up, I had a surprising surplus; if I continue thru the rest of the month at even 10% less than I've done up to this point, I'll be able to pay for 2/3rds of these books.

2.) I'm feeling more secure about my lease.

And my longterm occupancy in this space. My landlord (I refer to the property manager here, really, not the owner) was actually complimentary about my business; saying she thought my business would prosper in the coming times more than most.

Yeah, yeah, I know...buttering me up so I won't object to my rent, but I could also see she meant it.

3.) Sales haven't been as bad as I expected.

After the drop in fall of 2007, we had another big drop in the fall of 2008, but it seemed to stabilize at that rate and didn't fall any further. Sales have stayed consistent enough for me to make predictions. I'm at the higher of my three scenario's; which were admittedly very, very conservative.

4.) I've lowered my overhead so much...

I actually have more money to spend on product. I am debt free. I still have my reserve funds. I was so concerned going into Christmas, that I really cut back leaving me with more wiggle room to maneuver than I expected.

5.) Books are doing well.

They are currently my second best category, not bad for an inventory I've done very little to replenish over the last three months. My wife's store is doing so well. I just want some of that book goodness.

6.) I'm interested and engaged, and that's really important.

I've always been a huge reader, and for some reason titles and authors really stick in my head, which is a handy talent for a bookdealer.

I attribute success to motivation as much as anything. If I turn my focus to something, it tends to do well, at least while my focus is there -- and I'll be sure to stay on this until those books are paid off.

7.) The last year or so has almost been a trial run to being a bookstore.

I learned that best-sellers and newer books don't actually do all that well for me. I've learned that liquidated books, no matter how cheap or how well known I thought the authors or titles were, don't. I learned that mass market paperbacks don't sell as well as trade paperbacks, and neither do hardcovers.

I experimented with non-fiction; I tried carrying popular fiction.

What I have found works best for my store are classics, cult books, the 'hip' authors, and my own favorite books.

A stop gap measure, at first.

At first I carried new books because I got tired of people asking for TO KILL A MOCKINGBIRD, for instance, and never having it in the used section. Finally, I got the bright idea of carrying it new, and low and behold, people bought it.

It was easy to come up with the first 50 books; and then another 50 books; and then another. This last order was exactly 400 books -- all the books on my 'want' list; the books and authors I've either sold already, sometimes more than once, or books and authors I have a pretty good feeling I will sell.

You sell what sells.

Because, when you get right down to it, my job is to sell things. This isn't always easy. I mean, I often don't know in toys, games, cards, and comics what will sell and what won't. I identify best-sellers whenever possible, and keep them in stock and call them 'evergreens'. But mostly, I've already done that, pursued that course in graphic novels and board games which are the only real 'evergreen' categories I have, toys and cards card games being much more time sensitive.

I get the advantage of constantly new stuff in comics and cards and games, already. Books give me a more stable platform under that activity.

Classics are never dated.

With books, I'm still finding new old books that will sell. There really isn't too much guesswork in thinking that Hemingway, Faulkner, Fitzgerald, and Steinbeck will sell. These books and many more have already stood the test of time. There isn't actually much guesswork in thinking that GONE WITH THE WIND, or SHOGUN, or THE LITTLE PRINCE will sell.

Just keep following the veins of gold.

This order kept expanding because I was following a -- to me -- logical strategy of adding similar books to those that sell. For instance, if I find that 2 out of 3 Shel Silverstein books keep selling, then order a 4th.

I maybe got a little carried away. I've been carrying about 15 Philip K. Dick books, for instance, and I had sold half of them, and I decided to carry them all. Turns out, that was 40 books. But even that is a statement. A stack of 40 cult books is a form of advertising; it says, wow, this store is different.

Carry only the best.

Similarly, when it came to carrying S.F. for instance, I made a stab at carrying the cutting edge authors, such as China Mieville and Neal Asher. But, I also made a point of carrying lots of Asimov, Clarke and Heinlein.

In mysteries, I made a point of carrying all the Raymond Chandlers and Dasheill Hammetts.

Limited space.

I have enough space to carry a very good selection of fiction novels. But I do have to be selective. What I discovered was, since a mass paperback books of DUNE costs 7.99 and a trade paperback copy sells for 15.00, and they take about the same amount of space, that if I carry the bigger book a customer will still tend to buy it.

Because it's a good and or classic book.

Class sells.

Similarly, I've found that if you have a choice, pick the classiest version of that book. I can buy a nice generic copy of DRACULA, for instance, a solid color cover with only the title and author. Or I can buy a nice 'prestige' publisher version of the same book, sometimes for twice as much.

I'm not sure people are aware that they are buying the Simon and Shuster, the Random House, or the Penguin versions, but they gravitate toward them.

Hardcovers are sometimes the answer for the same reason. An ANNOTATED ALICE IN WONDERLAND, seems to be preferred over a cheap paperback version. When I looked to carry Walt Whitman's LEAVES OF GRASS, I settled on a 22.00 Random House hardcover rather than one of the myriad of cheap versions.

Because, if you are a customer buying a classic or cult book, you won't mind -- you may actually prefer -- to buy the nicer version.


I am pretty confident in all 400 books I just ordered. At a guess, I'm betting there are another 1000 or 2000 books that would fit my criteria.

And I have yet to look at a single best-seller list.

Monday, January 19, 2009

This and that.

I realize that everyone else has noticed, too. But it's kind of appropriate that M.L. King day falls the day before Obama's inauguration. I still worry that people expect too much, too fast. I've learned enough about economics in the last couple years to know that he won't impact on the recession until at least late in the year, if that.

Good luck to him and to us all.

********************

I've gained about 20 pounds, and no one notices. No one. Or as my friend Cameron put it more succinctly: "No one cares, Duncan."

********************

So far, the worst part of working everyday is not fitting in the time for a movie. I managed to read some comics last night, though.

********************

Bend Bubble2 has become unreadable. Someone (not me) has been posting entire acts of Shakespearean plays, which is an appropriate comment on what's happening over there. I just can't wade through all the dreck anymore.

********************

Started renegotiating my lease. Sounds promising. So far.

I really want the lease as soon as possible so I can do economic planning, and they aren't in any hurry. But they seemed amenable to continued storage in the basement, which was a big concern. I tried to make the case for lower rent, she made the case for equal or higher rent.

But it looks right now like that a manageable lease will probably happen. So I'm feeling relieved.

Sure enough, the landlord threw my comments in the Bulletin about a 'thriving downtown' in my face, but she did it with a smile.

********************

My wife is still amazed by how much fun she has with her blog. She's a natural; I think she and I have just written so much over the years that a blog isn't much of a stretch to write on a regular basis.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

"All that is speculation...."

In the Bulletin business section front-page article, MOVING IN, MOVING OUT" is the comment by Roger Lee, executive director of Economic Development for Central Oregon, "which promotes business growth for the region."

"I don't see us getting in a situation where we're losing residents. All that is speculation, but there is nothing to back it up in the numbers. If all the jobs evaporated, that would be a game-changer, but net out-migration in 2009 is very dubious."

I think the way this works is: if it's positive, it's a 'prediction.' If it's negative, it's 'speculation.'

First of all, no one is saying "all the jobs" are going to evaporate, just some. Secondly, the claim that we won't lose residents is equally 'speculative.' And third, a guy's who's job is described as "...promotes business growth for the region..." is not exactly an objective party.

But I'll agree that looking out moving van activity is akin to reading tea leaves, or the entrails of an unfinished condo.

So lets look at a few facts.

FACT NUMBER ONE.

There were 7 building permits issued in Bend in December.

7.

SEVEN.

The previous low I remember is 14.

Seven is more like incidental leftovers than any sign of future building activity. I think I must have 7 customers per hour that work in the construction trade -- they can't ALL be working on those 7 projects, can they?

FACT NUMBER TWO.

"Deschutes County's construction labor force is 12 percent of its total work force, compared with about half that amount for the rest of the state."

Personally, I think that percent is low, but I'll take it at face value. Twice the number of builders, and no building....

FACT NUMBER THREE.

Bend had a near 10% unemployment rate. If that was the national number, there would be much mashing and grinding of teeth and howls of doom.

FACT NUMBER FOUR.

That was then, this is now. If you looked at Pegasus Book's sales numbers in the first half of 2008, they would look a tad better than what I expect in 2009.

BUT THERE ARE JOBS.

But no worries. Bend had "engineering, health care or renewable energy fields" jobs.

So...if you have an engineering degree, you're just fine.

Just rewrite that resume to include a doctorate or nursing degree, or a engineering degree. Better yet, proclaim yourself a renewable energy expert: I think just about ANYONE can do THAT.

But it seems to me that we've seen some high profile companies in these fields actually laying people off -- St. Charles being the most prominent of all. I've also heard from customers of engineering jobs about to go south in the near future. And I'm beginning to wonder if GREEN is just the next scam, even bubble, if you will.

The extent of this slowdown will be that even if we technically get immigration, it won't be all that noticeable.

I think we'll notice the slowing of growth more. If people do move here without a job in place, I think we'll see them leaving just as fast.

And it's very possible, we'll not grow at all.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

A Cheerful little show called Battlestar Galactica

Watched a cheery little show last night, nothing much, a silly science fiction show.

Of Shakespearian proportions; with the Admiral as King Lear, his son Apollo as Hamlet, the President as Lady Macbeth.

Copious amounts of alcoholic rages and stupor.

Of hugging and tears -- and that's just the men.

Steely eyes and clenched jaws -- and that's just the women.

Ex-spouses get offed on a regular basis.

I may not understand all the 13 Tribes mumbo jumbo, but I love the histrionics.

Stay tuned next week, when the actor who formerly played Apollo becomes King Richard the Third or something.




SPOILER ALERT !!!!!


SPOILER ALERT !!!!!













You're a Cylon, I'm a Cylon, we're All Cylons! Hate your neighbor as yourself......

Friday, January 16, 2009

Pegasus Tagline.

I noticed in today's Bulletin article on Taglines, that the Bend bookstore, Between the Covers (I always want to say, Under the Covers, for some reason) has a nice little tag.

"Book lovers never go to bed alone."

Nice. Sly and cozy, just like the name of their store.

So I thought Pegasus Books should have a tagline.

For instance,

"Pegasus Books -- Buy a Damn Book."

Says what I want, but there is something inelegant about it.

How about,

Pegasus Books -- Buy a book, you illiterate wretch."

Better. Still says what I want, but there is still something...oh, I don't know...blunt? about it.

"Pegasus Books -- Show some parenting, and buy your kid a book."

Or how about:

"Pegasus Books -- Comics -- Smarter than you are."

Hmmm.

I think I'm not quite getting this marketing thing.

Anybody have any suggestions?

*****

"Pegasus Books -- older than our customers." Tim

Pegasus Books -- Where imagination takes flight. Olde Dame

Pegasus Books -- Fascinating reading is just around the Bend. Olde Dame

Pegasus Books -- Where books wing their way into your heart. Olde Dame

Pegasus Books -- Just Who the Hell is Oprah? Dunc

Pegasus Books -- What do you mean you want change? Dunc

Pegasus Books - Buy this book or we'll kill this puppy. Bruce.

Pegasus Books -- Make a deal, or we'll club a seal! PopGoesBend.

Why I missed the Obama comic.

I was going to let this just pass, water under the bridge and all.

But another retailer, Brian Hibbs (Comix Experience) did an autopsy on the whole mess that I thought about doing, but then shrugged.

I've borrowed heavily from his column, Tilting At Windmills, so I hope he doesn't mind.

Let us back up a little tiny bit though, and read the original solicitation for ASM #583. It looks like this:

AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #583
Written by MARK WAID
Pencils by BARRY KITSON
Cover by JOHN ROMITA SR.
YOU ASKED FOR IT, YOU GOT IT! PETER PARKER ON A DATE!
After the revelations of “Mind on Fire”, love is in the air for more than one member of the cast and Pete finally gets some time out with the ladies. (and who better to bring it to you than two men who both had dates as recently as 1987!) Amidst the romance though, forces are gathering that will spell trouble for Peter in the months to come.

32 PGS./Rated A …$2.99

This is the information that retailers had when they were trying to determine their orders, accept preorders and so on. Not a thing about Obama in there.

As I’m sure most of you are aware, we have a system called “Final Order Cutoff” (FOC) for Marvel and DC comics. What this means is that our orders are able to be freely adjusted upwards or downwards before the FOC date – typically three weeks before a book ships.

The holiday season interfered with the normal FOC schedule, however – because of Christmas and New Year’s, the FOC for ASM #583 (which shipped 1/14) was the week of 12/18. We also had to FOC all of the books shipping 1/7 as well as 1/21 – three different weeks worth of FOC.

The “Marvel Mailer” with the FOC information for ASM #583 then suddenly said this:

*AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #583 OBAMA VARIANT (OCT088192, $3.99, FOC – 12/18) AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #583 (NOV082358, $3.99, FOC - 12/18) will have a previously unannounced variant by Phil Jimenez featuring Spider-Man and the next President of the United States – Barack Obama. You can order the AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #583 OBAMA VARIANT without restriction if your orders of AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #583 regular cover by FOC are higher than your orders for AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #575 by FOC. AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #583 will also feature a 5 page back-up story of Spider-Man meeting Barack Obama.

This was not the first-placed change/incentive/difference, it was the third of twelve different product changes listed for that week. Marvel typically inundates us with last-minute product changes.

The recent trend on variant covers has been a declining one – there are so many of them offered each month that they’ve ceased to be special. Further, the overall sales trend on “Amazing Spider-Man” has been a downwards one – at Comix Experience we’ve been losing roughly 10% a month in sales since “New Ways to Die” ended. So, really, the idea of exceeding our orders from eight issues back, in order to be able to order any of the Obama cover, wasn’t something that really registered to me as a viable possibility.

Of course, this didn’t account for the impact of the Slow News Day, and the media interest in the title. Ah well.

Some (many?) stores missed the notification of the Obama cover in the first place – it was the week before Christmas after all.

Some (many?) stores missed the incentive by a single copy, unfortunately reading “exceed” as “match-to,” and so aren’t receiving a single copy of the Obama cover.

Note that in that latter case, the orders were cancelled out beneath the impacted retailers with zero notice of any kind – it wasn’t until they received their invoices this week that they saw they weren’t getting them, and, of course, it was far too late to do anything about it at that point. That’s pretty bogus behavior on behalf of Marvel and Diamond, however unintentional.

I may be a Pollyanna, but I really believe that had the book had its contents and cover properly solicited in the first place, without the ridiculous hoops that retailers were asked to jump through, supply within the market could be three-to-five times what it was. This still (probably) wouldn’t have been nearly enough copies to meet Slow News Day demand, but it would have gone a long way towards letting the Direct Market put its best foot forward to the hordes of civilians arriving in a frenzy that I haven’t seen since the “Death of Superman.”


I should add that in my own case, I consider most of Marvel's mailers to be nothing more than Spam. And I tend not to use the FOC except in extreme cases, because I've found that I tend to get it right with my first orders more than my second. Ordering on the fly every week usually gets me to overorder, instead of underorder.

Usually.

So there is the LONG answer as to why I missed the Obama comic, and I'm just going to sigh and send people to the blog for explanation.