Friday, April 4, 2025

Too soon to react?

Doing this week's orders--and stopped midway. 

I need to think about this.

The stock market is crashing. 

So my dilemma is this: when I order from Ingram, I get books in a very timely manner, in no more than two days, and I know exactly what I've spent. However, the discount I get from them is a full 10% less than what I get directly from the publishers.

However, when I order from the publishers, it can take anywhere from ten days to two weeks to arrive, sometimes even longer. The books also come in piecemeal, and I don't know in advance which books they won't have in stock. 

It's Timeliness vs Discount, simple as that.

Here's what I've learned in the past...

 In an insecure and uncertain market, you need to know exactly what you're spending and when the product will arrive.

In other words, when given the choice, timeliness over discount. 

We've been doing very well up to this moment; a record year so far. So I've been trying to do both. I order extremely hot material from both the distributor and the publishers. 

It's been a record keeping chore and has complicated the cash flow, but when the overall market is functioning, it evens out and we do fine. 

Now?

That's the question. Is it too early to take drastic measures? 

Again, what I've learned in the past is...trust your instincts. When there's a falling market, you almost can't be too quick to take action.  If you're wrong, you can always amp back up again. But if you're wrong about holding course and the market keeps falling, then you can easily start spending more than you're earning.

I think people are under-reacting. Maybe they aren't paying attention. Maybe they're in shock. Maybe they're resigned. Maybe they're afraid of overreacting.

I need to change course and start being more conservative.

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