AI is inevitable.

I spent years trying to convince people that Walmart was bad. I spent further years trying to convince people Amazon was bad. I tried moral suasion, I tried practical suasion, but in the end, none of it mattered. People will do what people do.

When I see how far and how fast AI has come, I'm already ready to throw in the towel. Oh, I'll personally resist...for awhile. 

Truth is, I use Amazon. I would probably use Walmart if it wasn't such an yucky place to visit. 

My store is designed to survive the actual existence of Walmart and Amazon, acknowledging their strengths, trying to find things that we can do that they can't. 

I don't think moral suasion is going to work any better against AI that it did against the previous goliaths. It seems impossible to control. It's already escaped, it's out of our hands.

People will do what people will do. 

Freezing rain, freezing business.

I don't remember freezing rain as being a thing in Central Oregon. Ice and snow, sure, but not rain. That was always a Portland thing. (I'm more sympathetic to their plight--we used to make fun of those clueless city folk.)

At the same time, the foot traffic in downtown Bend has been to die for over the last few years. Something I never could have dreamed would happen 40 years ago, when Jerry (the Sole Shop) and I would sit on the sidewalk and play cribbage until a customer showed up. 

We're an attraction to both locals and tourists. I'm aware of many Bendites saying they never shop downtown, which is a shame. The garage always has room and is a short walk from just about any shop in the area. I always respond with the Yogi Berra comment: "No one goes there anymore. It's too busy."

Anyway, over last couple of weeks we've seen the other side of that. It reminds me of February, 2019, when we saw a similar downturn in business. The snow, the ice, the cold, the slush, the puddles have kept people away. I have a feeling that a lot of tourists looked at the passes and the weather predictions and decided to stay home.

So it's been rather impactful.

If you base your business on tourism, then you have to accept that. 

It's fine. I mean, the last three years have boomed, so having a couple of slow weeks isn't deadly. But it is also a reminder that this kind of weather can happen at any point past Halloween, and if it was to happen the week before Christmas would be a disaster. Another warning to be careful. 

In the broader sense, it's a reminder of just how slow it is possible for business to get. String a few disasters in a row and it could be really hard. 

As I've mentioned earlier, Pegasus Books no longer has to order the bulk of its product far in advance. We can respond to inventory as it happens. It was designed thus. Covid taught me that even a complete stop in business won't kill you as long as you don't have to pay for unwanted inventory and your overhead is low enough. 

But it ain't fun.

The Snow! The Snow!

I'm going into the store today to finish up some work that had to be done anyway. 12:00 to 4:00.

Once I get past the first residential block or two, it's main roads all the way into the downtown garage. 

If no one comes in, fine. I kind of like kicking around the store on a snowy afternoon. But I'd also love it if you came in spend money. Heh.

This month reminds me of Feb. 2019, which was way, way below average. I looked it up and my records say "SNOW!" printed in big block letters. 

An act of God. Thank God it has never happened in December, which would cost tens of thousands of dollars in profits. I'm aware of the danger every year. 

It's part of the cycle. 

What's different nowadays is that the unlike the old days, when I ordered the bulk of my product months in advance, I now order most product on the week I need it. So I can easily adjust. My wholesale order for books this week, to replace all the books I sold as well as bring in new ones is only about 25% of normal. But the overhead is easily covered. 

I don't think I fully realized how hard it was to sell product like comics and card games and sports cards. I had no control over cash flow; huge orders would arrive when I could least afford it, and small orders would arrive when I most needed it. 

Gives me a nervous twitch to think of those days. 

It took me decades to figure it out, but I finally did.