Had a couple of good days at Pegasus Books, Wed. and Fri., thanks to my employees Cameron and Matt. They're doing such a good job I feel like I can concentrate on my writing and not worry.
I went to the store this morning expecting it to be cleaned out, but it looks as packed as ever. The great thing about the holidays isn't just the higher sales -- though those are nice -- but the fact that much of the stuff we sell doesn't have to be replaced.
Sometimes the stuff has sat in the store for half a year, but a tourist comes along and it's the very thing they've been looking for.
I wish Black Weekend was predictive of the rest of the season -- because it's been a good one so far -- but it really isn't.
I have some faith this December will be better than last year because I'm doing way more restocking than last year.
I always have to get ready for the shock of the 10 days after this weekend -- always an enormous dropoff, sometimes even below normal levels. Especially if the weather is as bad as predicted.
Anyway, a least we'll soon have this weekend under our belt.
Buy a Book for Christmas!
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Friday, November 29, 2013
Buy a book for Christmas.
I'm pretty sure the whole -- "this is the day the stores make a profit" -- thing is bogus. In fact, I seem to remember that the "black" part of the description was there because it was such a stressful, hectic day.
It was bigger for us early in our career. I believe the chainstores have very efficiently siphoned off most of the frenzy. It is also completely unpredictable. The year before last, for instance, was 40% higher than last year -- for no apparent reason.
I doubt the deals are any better now than they will be in a couple of weeks. And I doubt there will be any shortage of buyable merchandise closer to Christmas.
I don't have "Sales" at my store. I don't stray from that during this season. I strive to have as much merchandise as possible, and the more I can maintain regular prices the more stuff I can carry. In fact, I really have even less reason to have "Sales" at this time of year when I'm going to have increased volume anyway.
I try to have good stuff at everyday prices.
I have to be careful to calibrate my inventory correctly. I want more merchandise in the store before this weekend -- but I also have to be aware that there will be a dramatic dropoff in sales after this weekend for about two weeks. Then the final two weeks before Christmas -- Boom.
The last two weeks have become so important, it is kind of scary. I always worry that something catastrophic will happen -- events, weather, something. That the Sheriff of Nottingham will "Cancel Christmas."
Hasn't happened...yet.
There is a week less time this year between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but that week is missing from November, and since I'm already ahead of last year in November -- with two big days left -- apparently it had little effect. In fact, logically, it should make December all that much stronger.
I believe the mild weather has been working in our favor. That and the fact that I really stocked up this year, especially board games and books.
Anyway, we're good. We see an increase, to be sure, but not as much as I read other stores do -- in fact, I think I actually see a slight decrease in traffic from my regulars. What it does do is position me to pay off a heft chunk of my bills and hopefully have some cash in the bank for the long dry spell of the first half of the year.
If I can beat last year at Christmas, I may beat last year altogether, which considering how careful I've been in my buying, will be a real achievement.
Meanwhile, everyone have fun. Buy a book for Christmas.
It was bigger for us early in our career. I believe the chainstores have very efficiently siphoned off most of the frenzy. It is also completely unpredictable. The year before last, for instance, was 40% higher than last year -- for no apparent reason.
I doubt the deals are any better now than they will be in a couple of weeks. And I doubt there will be any shortage of buyable merchandise closer to Christmas.
I don't have "Sales" at my store. I don't stray from that during this season. I strive to have as much merchandise as possible, and the more I can maintain regular prices the more stuff I can carry. In fact, I really have even less reason to have "Sales" at this time of year when I'm going to have increased volume anyway.
I try to have good stuff at everyday prices.
I have to be careful to calibrate my inventory correctly. I want more merchandise in the store before this weekend -- but I also have to be aware that there will be a dramatic dropoff in sales after this weekend for about two weeks. Then the final two weeks before Christmas -- Boom.
The last two weeks have become so important, it is kind of scary. I always worry that something catastrophic will happen -- events, weather, something. That the Sheriff of Nottingham will "Cancel Christmas."
Hasn't happened...yet.
There is a week less time this year between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but that week is missing from November, and since I'm already ahead of last year in November -- with two big days left -- apparently it had little effect. In fact, logically, it should make December all that much stronger.
I believe the mild weather has been working in our favor. That and the fact that I really stocked up this year, especially board games and books.
Anyway, we're good. We see an increase, to be sure, but not as much as I read other stores do -- in fact, I think I actually see a slight decrease in traffic from my regulars. What it does do is position me to pay off a heft chunk of my bills and hopefully have some cash in the bank for the long dry spell of the first half of the year.
If I can beat last year at Christmas, I may beat last year altogether, which considering how careful I've been in my buying, will be a real achievement.
Meanwhile, everyone have fun. Buy a book for Christmas.
Thursday, November 28, 2013
Ready to get going again.
Woke up at 5:00 in the morning, a prologue to Deeptower going through my mind. I hadn't intended to have a prologue but apparently my subconscious begs to differ.
This is coming easy -- almost too easy. I've already written 11,000 words.
I worry when that happens, actually. I feel like maybe there hasn't been enough of a struggle. But then -- I'm sure that will come.
I think I'm benefiting from all the world building I did in Deviltree. I can take that as my starting point, and move on from there. It makes things so much clearer and easier. I can concentrate on story and character.
I think Faerylander, in the end, benefited from all the problems. It's a better book. I don't know whether it's a good book or not, but it's like a problem child who I love and who I finally need to let go.
Let the little beast go out into the world and hope for the best.
I know that I cut what I could and retained what I could, while pushing for a forward momentum to the story. I think I made the characters more sympathetic and their motivations much clearer. I think I managed to add a little tension. I cut most of the light and or silly passages.
There were some intrinsic problems that arose from pushing it through early on -- I was five months in and stuck and decided I needed to push forward, and I'm both glad I did and determined that I'll never do that again. But I've worked and worked at ameliorating those problems as best I can, and hopefully the reader won't notice.
I'd almost given up on Faerylander, but I'm glad I kept at it. I think its a real book now.
After a couple of months, I'm back to writing. The last original book I wrote, Spell Realm, was a real problem, which made me wonder if I'd lost my creative mojo. But it has been gaining favor with me as the weeks have passed. Some of the scenes are very clear in my head, which must mean they were effective to some extent and that there will be something to work with there when I'm ready.
Blood of Gold is with Lara, my editor. I'm hoping to publish it early next year so that my Vampire Evolution Trilogy will be complete.
My intention is to just write next year. Concentrate on the writing. I have enough books finished and lined up to be able to put one out every 3 or 4 months. Most of them still need to be edited, formatted and covers prepared. But most of them won't need extensive rewriting.
The ones that do need extensive rewriting -- mostly my fantasies -- I'm setting aside for now, with the intention of going back occasionally and working on them. They are just kind of inchoate right now, and I'm letting them be that way. The way they are interconnected means I'll probably have them all done at the same time.
The Faerylander world, the Deviltree world, even the Led to the Slaughter world, all lend themselves to a series of books. I think the Vampire Evolution story is complete. Freedy Filkins is a stand alone (I'm not tackling LOTR's!)
So I'm creating a body of work that I'm proud of. Maybe no one will ever notice, but I know what I've accomplished. I'm starting to be really proud of it.
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
To my future self.
So I've got this long drawn out analogy, which most of you will probably lose interest in. (Overthinking it much?)
But I want to get it down for my 'future' self in case I ever wonder why I made the choices I made.
The analogy is way at the end of this blog -- first I have a couple of preliminaries...
ONE:
There is a freedom in writing for myself -- a liberating, euphoric freedom.
How to explain.......
So I reach a point in a plot where I'm wondering -- do I do this or do I do that? I ask myself -- what will people think if I do that? Often, the answer is -- they'll probably think it's silly, or stupid, or hackneyed.
So I change what I'm doing, and try something else.
But let's say I really liked the idea and will always wonder if I could have made it work.
There is a difference in how I approach writing. It comes down to whether I'm worried about what others think, or whether I'm writing for myself. If I write for myself, I give myself permission to do anything. If I start to consider how it is going to look to others -- then I start second guessing myself.
I'm free and light when I do it for myself. I'm bogged down with all kinds of worries and concerns when I starting thinking about doing it for others.
So if I'm concerned about going through a traditional method of publishing, I think one way. If I'm doing it for myself, I often think another way. The doing it for myself gives me the permission to follow my own creative impulses.
The minute I start to consider how other people are going to think -- it changes. It's less satisfying. I'm not as willing to take chances. If I do it for myself, I figure I can fix whatever is wrong with it, or perhaps come up with something wildly different.
So that means I'm just indulging myself, right?
Not necessarily. This is similar to the idea that I have some control over whether a book is good or bad. Well, of course I do, right?
Not that I can see. I doubt anyone sets out to write a "bad" book. Everyone is probably doing their best.
At least I am. I'm not setting out to write a book I don't like. I'm writing to my maximum current abilities.
Really, when I'm talk about that kind of thing, I'm really talking about how much time I want to spend on rewriting. So, basically, the idea is that if I'm writing on a qualitative scale of 1 to 10, that if I start with a 6, and then spend two years diligently trying to improve it, that I end up with an 8.
(I don't think this is necessarily a given, at least for me. It's more a three steps forward two steps back process. What I gain in polish and perhaps depth, I lose in spontaneity and freshness. Sometimes, I think, it's even a two steps forward and three steps back process.)
But say I spend much less time trying to improve it, and I end up with a 6.5 or a 7.
Obviously, an 8 is better than a 6.5. But what if it takes two years to achieve an 8, and three months to achieve the 7? So in two years I've achieved one 8 level book, whereas I might have had eight 7 level books -- or more likely, say one 5 level book, three 6 level books, three 7 level books, and one 8 level book.
It's worse than that. Let's say by writing eight books I learn and get better. So each book is a .2 improvement. So by the eighth book, I'm at a 7.6 level to start. I really believe this is happening. Maybe it's a .1 improvement, but it's happening.
It's not all one thing or the other. I can set aside the 5 and 6 level books and come back to them later. I may improve a 7 level book easily, or take a long time but do other things while I'm at it.
(Again, overthinking it much? ;)
So -- I haven't even reached the analogy yet, by the way...
TWO:
Second part of the preliminary thinking.
I now think of writing with architecture in mind. So, every book has a foundation, it has walls, it has different levels, it has rooms and windows and doors, it has plumbing and electricity, it has a roof, and so on.
So when I construct a book, I have to keep all those elements in mind. I may build part of the foundation and part of the roof at the same time, I may build one room at a time, but in the end I have to put all the elements together.
The art of it is in how I construct these elements. So let's say, I decide to build a Colonial?
THREE:
So here's where I start the analogy.
I just build the Colonial, because that's what I want to do.
But everyone is buying Craftmen houses. Let's say -- Northwest Crossing.
Whereas, I feel like building a Colonial east of town, in the middle of the desert.
Pretty stupid. I admit. If my goal is to actually sell it, or even have people find it, I'm doing a very doubtful thing.
So there's the difference. If I build in Northwest Crossing, I will have to worry about what the market wants, try to fit in, build where everyone else is building. In doing so, I have to get permits, I have to hire contractors, I have trust that a real estate agent will sell the house. It takes forever, I'm building to other people's specifications, and in the end there is no guarantee that the house will sell anyway.
But my little Colonial. I do it all myself. I build it quickly. I don't have to have contractors or workers or permits or any of those things. It's a little quirky, with a little tower on one end, a back room that's round.
Totally not the style anyone wants, completely out of place in the sagebrush and junipers.
Worse -- it doesn't have any connectors. It doesn't have sewer line, or a water main, or an electrical line. It's all wells, and generators, and so on.
But it's done.
So what? Nobody will find it, if they do find it, they won't have any way of relating to it. It will sit lonely and unappreciated.
But I compound the problem, and build another one...and another. Each a different style -- whatever I feel like building. Pretty soon I have a whole sub-division of misfits, which very few people will find, they have to take my word that the houses are livable.
Who knows? Maybe someday Colonials in the desert will be all the rage. Probably won't happen, but you never know. Maybe the subdivision will fit into the larger picture someday.
FOUR:
This is all just to say -- writing for myself is free and liberating and fast and fun -- but perhaps pointless. But all I have to do is build it. I don't have to worry about anything else.
Writing for others is second guessing, and frustrating, and takes forever, and isn't much fun, and constricting -- and maybe just as pointless. But there is a chance, if a slim one.
So do I want to put up with everything else for a slim chance?
I've decided -- no.
Sorry you had to read my whole labored analogy to get here....
But I want to get it down for my 'future' self in case I ever wonder why I made the choices I made.
The analogy is way at the end of this blog -- first I have a couple of preliminaries...
ONE:
There is a freedom in writing for myself -- a liberating, euphoric freedom.
How to explain.......
So I reach a point in a plot where I'm wondering -- do I do this or do I do that? I ask myself -- what will people think if I do that? Often, the answer is -- they'll probably think it's silly, or stupid, or hackneyed.
So I change what I'm doing, and try something else.
But let's say I really liked the idea and will always wonder if I could have made it work.
There is a difference in how I approach writing. It comes down to whether I'm worried about what others think, or whether I'm writing for myself. If I write for myself, I give myself permission to do anything. If I start to consider how it is going to look to others -- then I start second guessing myself.
I'm free and light when I do it for myself. I'm bogged down with all kinds of worries and concerns when I starting thinking about doing it for others.
So if I'm concerned about going through a traditional method of publishing, I think one way. If I'm doing it for myself, I often think another way. The doing it for myself gives me the permission to follow my own creative impulses.
The minute I start to consider how other people are going to think -- it changes. It's less satisfying. I'm not as willing to take chances. If I do it for myself, I figure I can fix whatever is wrong with it, or perhaps come up with something wildly different.
So that means I'm just indulging myself, right?
Not necessarily. This is similar to the idea that I have some control over whether a book is good or bad. Well, of course I do, right?
Not that I can see. I doubt anyone sets out to write a "bad" book. Everyone is probably doing their best.
At least I am. I'm not setting out to write a book I don't like. I'm writing to my maximum current abilities.
Really, when I'm talk about that kind of thing, I'm really talking about how much time I want to spend on rewriting. So, basically, the idea is that if I'm writing on a qualitative scale of 1 to 10, that if I start with a 6, and then spend two years diligently trying to improve it, that I end up with an 8.
(I don't think this is necessarily a given, at least for me. It's more a three steps forward two steps back process. What I gain in polish and perhaps depth, I lose in spontaneity and freshness. Sometimes, I think, it's even a two steps forward and three steps back process.)
But say I spend much less time trying to improve it, and I end up with a 6.5 or a 7.
Obviously, an 8 is better than a 6.5. But what if it takes two years to achieve an 8, and three months to achieve the 7? So in two years I've achieved one 8 level book, whereas I might have had eight 7 level books -- or more likely, say one 5 level book, three 6 level books, three 7 level books, and one 8 level book.
It's worse than that. Let's say by writing eight books I learn and get better. So each book is a .2 improvement. So by the eighth book, I'm at a 7.6 level to start. I really believe this is happening. Maybe it's a .1 improvement, but it's happening.
It's not all one thing or the other. I can set aside the 5 and 6 level books and come back to them later. I may improve a 7 level book easily, or take a long time but do other things while I'm at it.
(Again, overthinking it much? ;)
So -- I haven't even reached the analogy yet, by the way...
TWO:
Second part of the preliminary thinking.
I now think of writing with architecture in mind. So, every book has a foundation, it has walls, it has different levels, it has rooms and windows and doors, it has plumbing and electricity, it has a roof, and so on.
So when I construct a book, I have to keep all those elements in mind. I may build part of the foundation and part of the roof at the same time, I may build one room at a time, but in the end I have to put all the elements together.
The art of it is in how I construct these elements. So let's say, I decide to build a Colonial?
THREE:
So here's where I start the analogy.
I just build the Colonial, because that's what I want to do.
But everyone is buying Craftmen houses. Let's say -- Northwest Crossing.
Whereas, I feel like building a Colonial east of town, in the middle of the desert.
Pretty stupid. I admit. If my goal is to actually sell it, or even have people find it, I'm doing a very doubtful thing.
So there's the difference. If I build in Northwest Crossing, I will have to worry about what the market wants, try to fit in, build where everyone else is building. In doing so, I have to get permits, I have to hire contractors, I have trust that a real estate agent will sell the house. It takes forever, I'm building to other people's specifications, and in the end there is no guarantee that the house will sell anyway.
But my little Colonial. I do it all myself. I build it quickly. I don't have to have contractors or workers or permits or any of those things. It's a little quirky, with a little tower on one end, a back room that's round.
Totally not the style anyone wants, completely out of place in the sagebrush and junipers.
Worse -- it doesn't have any connectors. It doesn't have sewer line, or a water main, or an electrical line. It's all wells, and generators, and so on.
But it's done.
So what? Nobody will find it, if they do find it, they won't have any way of relating to it. It will sit lonely and unappreciated.
But I compound the problem, and build another one...and another. Each a different style -- whatever I feel like building. Pretty soon I have a whole sub-division of misfits, which very few people will find, they have to take my word that the houses are livable.
Who knows? Maybe someday Colonials in the desert will be all the rage. Probably won't happen, but you never know. Maybe the subdivision will fit into the larger picture someday.
FOUR:
This is all just to say -- writing for myself is free and liberating and fast and fun -- but perhaps pointless. But all I have to do is build it. I don't have to worry about anything else.
Writing for others is second guessing, and frustrating, and takes forever, and isn't much fun, and constricting -- and maybe just as pointless. But there is a chance, if a slim one.
So do I want to put up with everything else for a slim chance?
I've decided -- no.
Sorry you had to read my whole labored analogy to get here....
Redmond's turn.
It's interesting to see Redmond grappling with street closures. I'm assuming that they didn't close 6th and 7th Streets before because for so long they were the only routes through town.
So when they did start closing streets, it came as a shock to many of the established businesses.
They objected. They objected because it was probably obvious to them that the whole thing is a net loss for most businesses. They could look at the results -- and they had enough time to see if there was a hidden benefit (the old -- "they'll come back later" excuse) and make up their own minds.
See, what I think happened in Bend is the frog in the hot water scenario. It seemed like a good idea at first, it slowly escalated, then became a confirmed thing, and now no one can tell the real effect. More and more events, longer events, more disruptive events. Every one of them "Worthy", often for a good cause.
It'll be good for business they say, without any proof whatsoever. It's just assumed. Any retailer who demurs will be dismissed as a crackpot. Newer businesses will assume that because they've been happening for so long, they must be good, right? (And newer businesses probably make up the majority of active retailers...)
Also interesting to see that the proponents are using the same half-assed concessions to muddy the waters.
They pretend it's about "communication" and "advance warnings." Which I think are meant to just obscure the issue and make it look like something is being done.
No, it's about street closures.
But the proponents will be organized and persistent.
The retailers meanwhile will be all over the place, with a single "pro" retailer cancelling a dozen "con" retailers. The retailers who are unhappy will throw up their hands and go along to get along.
The lobby for these events are -- the event promoters, the event sellers, the government, the pro-business groups, the advertisers, the media, and most of all, the attendees.
Retailers don't have a chance against that lineup.
So when they did start closing streets, it came as a shock to many of the established businesses.
They objected. They objected because it was probably obvious to them that the whole thing is a net loss for most businesses. They could look at the results -- and they had enough time to see if there was a hidden benefit (the old -- "they'll come back later" excuse) and make up their own minds.
See, what I think happened in Bend is the frog in the hot water scenario. It seemed like a good idea at first, it slowly escalated, then became a confirmed thing, and now no one can tell the real effect. More and more events, longer events, more disruptive events. Every one of them "Worthy", often for a good cause.
It'll be good for business they say, without any proof whatsoever. It's just assumed. Any retailer who demurs will be dismissed as a crackpot. Newer businesses will assume that because they've been happening for so long, they must be good, right? (And newer businesses probably make up the majority of active retailers...)
Also interesting to see that the proponents are using the same half-assed concessions to muddy the waters.
They pretend it's about "communication" and "advance warnings." Which I think are meant to just obscure the issue and make it look like something is being done.
No, it's about street closures.
But the proponents will be organized and persistent.
The retailers meanwhile will be all over the place, with a single "pro" retailer cancelling a dozen "con" retailers. The retailers who are unhappy will throw up their hands and go along to get along.
The lobby for these events are -- the event promoters, the event sellers, the government, the pro-business groups, the advertisers, the media, and most of all, the attendees.
Retailers don't have a chance against that lineup.
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Jumping on a sinking ship.
The Barnes and Noble strategy continues to mystify me.
I'm pretty sure that a full on bookstore B & N would still be viable if that's where they spent their time, space, energy and money.
So the first ad on TV I see for the holiday season? An ad that is mostly about the Nook.
But in the latest quarter of the year, their sales in the Nook were down 32.2%. Their sales in digital content were down 21.2%. Their sales in digital accessories were down 41.3%.
Meanwhile their sales in actual books were down 3.7%, which they attribute to the drop off in sales of 50 Shades of Gray. Which I believe.
So putting yourself out of business to support for a failing model, and destroying what is a viable model in the meantime. Why? WTF?
I'm pretty sure that a full on bookstore B & N would still be viable if that's where they spent their time, space, energy and money.
So the first ad on TV I see for the holiday season? An ad that is mostly about the Nook.
But in the latest quarter of the year, their sales in the Nook were down 32.2%. Their sales in digital content were down 21.2%. Their sales in digital accessories were down 41.3%.
Meanwhile their sales in actual books were down 3.7%, which they attribute to the drop off in sales of 50 Shades of Gray. Which I believe.
So putting yourself out of business to support for a failing model, and destroying what is a viable model in the meantime. Why? WTF?
Owning the river.
So do they own the river? Or the land beneath Mirror Pond?
A long lawsuit trying to decide the matter would just accomplish the same thing they want -- the delay in tearing down the dam.
Look, I personally think we have to keep Mirror Pond. We have to dredge it. Shore up the damn and generate a little money and build the fish ladder, and so on.
Going to cost a ton of money.
Which we don't have. Here's the thing -- when you spend millions on an unfunded bus system, and then you get sued for having faulty wheelchair access, you don't have the money. When you spend millions on a pie in the sky project like Juniper Ridge, then you don't have the money to fix the water system. When you bank on future growth in a UGB that isn't realistic, you don't have the money to fix Mirror Pond.
A "natural" river sounds good. Have you been down to the natural river lately? Not the parks, the actual river. I bet most haven't because you'd have to work your way through thick brush and mud and waves of insects. It won't be visually appealing, or experientially mentally appealing, unless you built paths and parks and so on. Which costs money.
It all just comes back to money and how stupid the city council has been with it.
A long lawsuit trying to decide the matter would just accomplish the same thing they want -- the delay in tearing down the dam.
Look, I personally think we have to keep Mirror Pond. We have to dredge it. Shore up the damn and generate a little money and build the fish ladder, and so on.
Going to cost a ton of money.
Which we don't have. Here's the thing -- when you spend millions on an unfunded bus system, and then you get sued for having faulty wheelchair access, you don't have the money. When you spend millions on a pie in the sky project like Juniper Ridge, then you don't have the money to fix the water system. When you bank on future growth in a UGB that isn't realistic, you don't have the money to fix Mirror Pond.
A "natural" river sounds good. Have you been down to the natural river lately? Not the parks, the actual river. I bet most haven't because you'd have to work your way through thick brush and mud and waves of insects. It won't be visually appealing, or experientially mentally appealing, unless you built paths and parks and so on. Which costs money.
It all just comes back to money and how stupid the city council has been with it.
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