Friday, July 17, 2020

A little secret.

Until recently, I've been pretty much OK with the rankings of my books on Goodreads. I mean, the rankings pretty much follow the order that I'd rank the books myself.

But there has always been exceptions:

When the books are offbeat, or a little experimental, they do tend to get worse reviews. In my eyes, the fact that I tried something different is a plus, not a minus. I've been trying new things over the last few books--some have done well: "Deadfall Ridge" was my first non-fantastical book, and it's probably done better in sales than any of my other books. I followed it up with an attempt to be even more realistic with "Takeover," and that wasn't as successful. While the reviews might be appropriate, I know that I tried hard to do something different, and I give myself extra credit for that.

I'm not sure how "Eden's Return" is going to go over. I purposely didn't try to explain the events of the book. I let a little philosophizing guide my way.

Here's the thing: the bigger the premise, the more explanations are unsatisfying. Watch all those seasons of "Lost" and the purgatory explanation just seems disappointing, lame. (Especially since that my first guess in about the first three episodes of the show.)

Explanations bring everything down to earth--they flatten the metaphors, erase the ambiguities, and are almost always a letdown. Whereas without explanations, the reader can supply their own answers, find analogs and symbols, relate to it in their own way.

There is probably a way to be both non-concrete and also satisfying, but that is decided in the end by the reader.

I was more than happy with "Eden's Return" and thought whatever loose ends there were needed to be loose ends.

P.S. The book comes out on Monday; audio, paperback, and ebook. 

Saturday, July 11, 2020

Linda's been watching a ton of Diagnosis Murder and Murder She Wrote while I roll my eyes. I do like seeing all the character actors I've forgotten. As I've mentioned, their names pop into my head because of the challenge game that Dad and I used to play.

We decided to watch the Rockford Files, which I remember fondly. We watch the first half of the pilot last night.

Wow. The pacing...we lived at a different pace back them. Five minutes of an old wino riding a bus, getting off and walking to a beach, being murdered, and the waves rolling in. Something that in a modern show would take a minute or two.

Everything looks so bare and plain. Rudimentary...almost poor. Not a computer or cell phone in sight, just file cabinets full of paper. Not a hint of what was to come.

James Garner is still charming, and the plot isn't too bad. I noticed right away that in the pilot, Rockford's dad was played by a different actor.

"I thought Wallace Beery, Jr. played his dad," I said to Linda. I looked it up. Actually, it was Noah Beery, Jr., who was Wallace Beery's nephew...

Lindsey Wagner is the client, who owns a bikini shop. (Would a modern show resist having her wear a bikini?)

Simpler times.

Oh, I'm a cruel, cruel man. I looked up the original "Champ" movie with Wallace Beery and showed Linda the last four minutes. She was in tears in the first minute...the ultimate tearjerker.

If I was really sadistic, I'd show her the last four minutes of City Lights. (Never mind the first few minutes of "Up" or the ending of "Grave of Fireflies." But I'd have to subject myself, and I ain't prepared for that...)

Scattered, obvious, or unwise.

It's been hard to keep this blog up. What I want to say is either too scattered or too obvious or too unwise to talk about.

Too scattered. 

Have hardly finished reading a book, much less writing one. I've been stuck on a James Lee Burke book for a month. I've always loved his writing, but I think I've become too aware of his little tricks. I actually laughed outloud at a rather ludicrous sex scene. His writing is starting to seem rote.

Linda and I have started a ton of TV shows, and then sort of let them peter out. I figure if that happens, it's because we've lost interest or we've overdosed. I sort of test Linda a little bit--wait for her to ask to keep watching a show. If she doesn't, then it disappears from our queue. So I can make a lot of comments about random shows, which is sort of useless.

Too obvious. 

The shit show that is our politics. It's horrible and scary. Jesus, who would have ever thought...

Coronavirus. If the governor hadn't mandated masks, I probably would have closed up. As long as we enforce mask wearing--yes, over your nose too--then I feel barely safe enough to remain open.

Too unwise. 

The store is doing extraordinarily well, but I don't believe I should crow about it. I'm surprised and grateful, but I fully expect the roof to fall in at any time.

Like I said, I'm too scattered in my thoughts to be of any use to anyone. Off I go to peruse Twitter and Facebook. That ought to focus me. (Sarcasm...)

Tuesday, July 7, 2020

God, I love books.

Books are selling like crazy at Pegasus Books. Basically at double the pace of last year. Which is a good thing since Marvel and DC are rolling out comics out a slowly, especially for this time of the season.

Anyway, I'm very busy trying to reorder books each week from four different sources. It's a lot more work than ordering from just Ingrams, especially since I have to cross-reference availability, make sure I'm getting the best discount, and weigh that against the postage and how long it will take to show up.

Not sure if this is going to be feasible if it's going to take hours and hours to do every week. But I'm hoping that I'll be able to make the process routine eventually. Right now, it's trial and error.

On the other hand, book nerd that I am, I hugely enjoy ordering books. Sabrina has been ordering games and comics for years now, so I haven't had that challenge. Until recently, book ordering for me has been more of an off-hand affair, when I finally decided to take it seriously. I don't think the doubling of sales is any accident, but simply a matter of paying real attention. Even more encouraging, there is no micro factors that are probably going to affect this trajectory. (Macro factors--well, that's a minefield of danger...)

A lifetime of heavy reading, and beyond that, a curiosity about books whether I've read them or not, is paying off. (Much as the miscellaneous but voluminous superficial knowledge I've gained has helped in my writing.)

No shortage of tourists. This was my instinct, despite what all the "experts" on TV were saying. I think yesterday was maybe a little slower than it could have been because every other store but one on my block was closed. This is inexplicable to me, because a few of them have mentioned that times are tough, nevertheless they remain closed on Sundays and Mondays--in the summer. All I can do is shake my head.

And then there is this morning's headline in the Bulletin that Gov. Brown is threatening to close us down again.

Anyway, I'm enjoying being at work, and selling books, and talking to people and being engaged. I don't regret the seven years I spent with my head in my writing, but this is a refreshing change.

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

What looks like a surge is really just the pinnacle.

Over the years there have been many times when I've let myself think that Pegasus Books might be on the verge of turning a real profit. Not just paying the bills (including a modest wage for me, which the IRS counts as profit), but actually some cash left over.

***Warning--this is totally in the business weeds.

Every...damn... time, that possibility has receded before my disbelieving eyes.

No more. I've come to recognize that there is a inevitable pattern to it. Whenever I reach that point where it appears a profit is possible, it is actually a sign that things have probably reached a peak and the downhill slope is imminent.

The danger is that you spend too much at the peak, which means you get a high flow of material coming in after sales have already begun to drop. I've never figured out why this happens--perhaps the surge creates competition, or people are most eager just before they stop, or expenses like rent and utilities rise. All I know is that it is a consistent pattern.

The only real way to make extra money is to siphon it off on the way up--but the drawback to that is that you inevitably slow the growth. Whatever is fueling the growth will usually soak up all the cash, unless you are willing to forego the growth, which I have never been willing to do.

In hindsight, this has kept me in business, but has kept me from being terribly profitable. So if longevity is my goal, then supporting the growth curve is a good idea. I've learned that you can only survive a steep drop in business if you are operating at a significant level above survival.

That is, say you need to earn $XXX to stay in business, (breakeven point) and you spend all your cash on pushing it to $XXX times 1.5. What this does is gives you a cushion for a drop of a third. However, you haven't set any money aside for reserves. This sounds bad, but if you budget correctly, you can weather it.

On the other hand, let's say I need to do $XXX to stay in business, and I gently push it to $XXX times 1.25. Meanwhile, I take profits by not growing as fast and high as I could. But the problem is, if there is a drop in sales of a third or more, I'm in the hole with no real way to get out of it. The breakeven point isn't achievable, except by drastic cutting.

What about the cash? By my calculations, the cash profit--if you managed to hold onto it and not spend it on something else--will never be enough to cover the shortfall.

So the trick is to recognize when you are peaking and start looking for the inevitable falter.



Monday, June 29, 2020

Makes life interesting....as if.

In my second week of ordering from PRH. (Penguin/Random House).

It's a pain in the ass, seems to take inordinate time, the search engine sucks, I don't know if what I'm ordering is in stock, I don't know when and how it will ship or how long it takes. I don't know if the split shipments are going to cost.

Meanwhile, I haven't seen or heard anything from Scholastic Press. I tried setting up an account online, but got no response. I'll try again in a few days, but I'm starting to suspect that this will be more of a 2 or 3 time a year order, and that I'll do it with the rep.

As you all know, I've always maintained that time and effort = money. So I have to figure out if all this extra time and effort is worth the extra discount. Right now, I'd say no. But I'm hoping this will settle down, that I'll figure it out, and it will become routine.

One thing's for sure--books are selling. We are a full-on bookstore at this point, even carrying non-fiction. The non-fiction section is in the beginning stages, but I can see it expanding. Once that happens, well--that makes me a full bookstore.

After all, every bookstore has to make selections. The fact that my selections are quirky, well that just makes the store interesting to people. (I get a ton of compliments...)

I was in one of the local ABA model stores, and I was told that the ABA newsletter is going to stop coming out in physical form. Opening the pamphlet, and it's clear to me why all ABA model bookstores look the same. They're all ordering the same recommended material.

In a sense, my bookstore is a backstock store. That is, I concentrate on books that have already come out and have a history. Seems much safer to me.

Then again, a local bookseller told me how many of the new John Bolton books he ordered and it sort of floored me. (Not that he actually got the books...that seems to be a big problem with new bestsellers. They aren't always readily available, which is weird. Obviously, the big boys are getting them first.)

Though I've been carrying new books for a decade now, in some ways I'm only beginning. I mean, I was pretty lackadaisical for a long time, just getting the low-hanging easy stuff. Now I'm challenging myself to fill out the store with material that people see as bookstore-ish. ("fill-out" is a bit of a joke--I'm already packed.)

Still, it makes life interesting. Because, you know, not enough stuff is going on....

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

"In the Midst of Chaos, there is Opportunity." Sun Tzu

Our book sales are nearly double last year this month.

When I first started doing new books about fifteen years ago, I was ordering the low-hanging fruit. Favorites, cult books, classics, tangential to comics, requests. My new book ordering was at first meant to be a supplement to my used books. I had gotten tired of never having the titles come in used that people were asking for.

Within a few years, new books were outselling used books 5 to 1.

I removed the used books completely a couple years ago, making more room for new books and graphic novels.

I've always treated books in my store as more or less a continuum. Hardcovers or softcovers, comics or graphic novels, trade paperback or mass market paperbacks, art books, children's books, fiction, non-fiction if interesting. I tried to blend them all together. Stories--some with lots of words, some with lots of art, but all stories.

For about 5 years, I was bringing books in kind of from a distance. That is, I was home writing most of the time and would lift my head to order books here and there, whenever convenient. I kept expanding the bookshelves wherever possible. I wasn't really bearing down, but nevertheless, book sales continued to increase.

What I've found is this: Good books sell and keep selling. So every time I find an evergreen book, one that will sell every time I order it, it adds to the overall effect. One by one, I've been adding books that seem to have constant demand. All of this works because of the foot-traffic in downtown Bend, especially the tourists.

Because of the popularity of young adult graphic novels, I've been paying particular attention to young adult and kids books of all kinds. 

In the last year I finally decided to pay more attention to brand new books and bestsellers. I'm still a little careful there--I will order two or three of a bestseller that fits my brand (i.e. the new Hunger Games prequel), and maybe just one of other hardcover books. I'm still not trying to carry every new bestseller that comes out, but I try to have a good sampling.

Since I started working two days a week last fall, I accelerated the process, paid much more attention to what I was doing. This meant also coming in at least one more day a week to put books away. Book sales started to increase under the attention.

When we closed in April to put down new flooring, I shifted things slightly to make a little more room for new books. What's more or less happened is that the increase in new book sales have more than compensated for the decrease, due to disruptions and/or competition, in sales on other product.

In the chaos, I've had time to rethink how I'm doing things.

In the last month, DC comics has decided to distribute their comics under new distributors. This has more or less thrown the entire market into chaos. It forced me to take a closer look at what I was doing.

For one thing, I've been ordering all my new books from a distributor, both for convenience and speed. However, I can get a 10% better margin by ordering directly from the publishers. Over the last week, I've been transitioning--ordering books as usual from the regular distributor, but whenever possible going direct with the publishers. So far, I've set up accounts with two publishers--who probably account for a good 40% of my overall book sales.

If this works, I'll set up accounts with a couple more of the Big Five publishers--who between them own the lion's share of new books.

It's been a time-consuming process, and frankly, I probably wouldn't have done it if DC comics hadn't pulled the rug out from under us. I'll actually save money buying DC graphic novels from my new accounts, and while that is happening, I'll save money on a goodly percentage of my other books too.

So thanks, DC, for throwing things into chaos. I doubt you'll like the results, but it's going to be good for my store.