Sometimes I can forget to be grateful and appreciative that I have a fully functioning business.
There were so many years where I kept the whole enterprise alive by sheer willpower, or so it felt. I mean, by all rights I should have crumbled, but I refused to and no one took the trouble to come lock my doors.
So when I enter in a new invoice of product into my computer and I see the varied and interesting array of material, I'm impressed. I'm satisfied that I can leave the store for a day or two and it will continue to generate money. I'm proud of what I've accomplished.
I was watching a thing on C-span the other day where the author was talking about how he describes Google as an adolescent, but actually it's 12 years old which is a long time in 'tech' years.
"General Motors has been around for 75 years, which is an impressive run, and it almost went out of business last year..."
And then I compare it to Pegasus Books, which has existed for 31 years, and I'm kind of boggled.
I'm also thankful that I'm earning a "living wage" and that I started earning a living wage about the time I started this "minimum wage job" blog; (It seems silly to change the title now, especially since 80% of my career it was true.) And I'm somewhat puzzled that this has happened while the economic world around me seems to be at an all time worst -- the Great Recession has kept me from earning as much as I could, but it's still better than it was.
I think, as I mentioned above, it's because I have all the pieces in place, a fully functioning store.
It doesn't seem like that should be unusual, but I know it is -- especially when I think back on all the stores that were downtown when I started and how very few of them are left; or how few of the ones that followed are left. It sometimes seems to me that NO stores last very long.
I have constantly morphed the store over the years -- it turns out to be one of my strengths. I'm constantly developing new product lines that may or may not ever pan out; and I'm constantly keeping old product lines on life-support in hopes they'll have a resurgence.
New books are becoming more important to my store at a time when the challenges in the industry seem to be at an all time high.
But, I've always thought -- it's easier to enter an industry at the low point, or the most challenging point -- with one's eyes open to all the pitfalls. I can't tell you the number of times I've gotten into a product line when no one else was -- spent lots of time developing it, only to have the bottom fall out because the mass market suddenly takes over.
For instance, I'm holding my own on boardgames, but it's becoming obvious that the customers no longer consider my store an oasis of material they can't find anywhere else -- they are now "pricing" the games (I sell at suggested retail) and walking away instead of being happy that I carry the material at all. At least this time, I've been aware of that danger since the beginning and have fully taken it into account.
It turns out, though, that by carrying six or seven different kinds of material: new and used books, games (rpg's; card and board), toys, comics and graphic novels; cards (sports and entertainment) and ancillary material -- I can constantly adjust the mix.
Anyway, I think I'm prepared to be prepared for anything that might or might not happen. Or maybe I should say, I'm prepared to be Unprepared for what might or might not happen.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
What is small business success?
When I look at other small retail, I don't consider a concept proved for at least five years. That is, a store needs to survive five years and still be making money for me to believe they're viable.
But beyond that, I also include a seven year measure for emotional success. If after seven years a store not only makes money, but is emotionally, physically, and mentally satisfying, then I believe they're viable.
Maybe seven years is an unnecessarily high standard. I could conceive of a business which is designed to be in business for only five or seven years, which might consider itself a success.
Nevertheless, I think if a store can make it through the seven year period, it has proved out.
Why the seven year mark?
Because ironically, the very things that might help you make it to the five years mark as a financial success can work against you as a emotional success. To succeed in a small business these days you need to so over work, over invest, and over commit, that success can breed failure.
My guess is that most successful businesses that make it past the seven year mark have found a compromise with financial versus the personal.
To make it through the first five years, I believe a small business has to avoid some common misconceptions.
1.) Being cheaper sells more.
2.) Paid advertising works.
What does work in the first five years?
1.) Working most of the hours yourself.
2.) Self-promoting. Doing all the promotional things you can that don't cost money.
3.) Service, service, service. Don't discount your product, add service to the product. You can't beat the internet or the mass market on price anyway, so you have to provide added value.
So, not doing the first two things and doing the second three things helps make you financially viable.
However, doing the second three things can burn you out over a five to seven year period. I've seen this almost as often as I've seen businesses go out because they weren't making money.
So in order to avoid that burnout, you have to moderate and tailor the services you provide. You have to give up some of the financial success to hire employees, you have to ease off on the constant self--promotion and hope that the business has gained enough credibility to be viable without the constant push.
A business has to either be financially successful or emotionally satisfying -- but not only aren't those the same two things, they can be actively contrary.
I think it's hard for small business owners to recognize the dangers of burnout. Our culture is so go-go all the time, that it seems sinful to ease off. But I think that the more rah rah you are, the more the danger of burnout, which then makes you less effective as a business.
The first five years of business can be exciting and satisfying, and most owners are willing to put in the time, energy, space and money to try to succeed. But it's hard to maintain that level of energy forever. It is possible to take the financial success that results, and find a level that is self-sustainable.
If you can do those two things, then you have succeeded.
But beyond that, I also include a seven year measure for emotional success. If after seven years a store not only makes money, but is emotionally, physically, and mentally satisfying, then I believe they're viable.
Maybe seven years is an unnecessarily high standard. I could conceive of a business which is designed to be in business for only five or seven years, which might consider itself a success.
Nevertheless, I think if a store can make it through the seven year period, it has proved out.
Why the seven year mark?
Because ironically, the very things that might help you make it to the five years mark as a financial success can work against you as a emotional success. To succeed in a small business these days you need to so over work, over invest, and over commit, that success can breed failure.
My guess is that most successful businesses that make it past the seven year mark have found a compromise with financial versus the personal.
To make it through the first five years, I believe a small business has to avoid some common misconceptions.
1.) Being cheaper sells more.
2.) Paid advertising works.
What does work in the first five years?
1.) Working most of the hours yourself.
2.) Self-promoting. Doing all the promotional things you can that don't cost money.
3.) Service, service, service. Don't discount your product, add service to the product. You can't beat the internet or the mass market on price anyway, so you have to provide added value.
So, not doing the first two things and doing the second three things helps make you financially viable.
However, doing the second three things can burn you out over a five to seven year period. I've seen this almost as often as I've seen businesses go out because they weren't making money.
So in order to avoid that burnout, you have to moderate and tailor the services you provide. You have to give up some of the financial success to hire employees, you have to ease off on the constant self--promotion and hope that the business has gained enough credibility to be viable without the constant push.
A business has to either be financially successful or emotionally satisfying -- but not only aren't those the same two things, they can be actively contrary.
I think it's hard for small business owners to recognize the dangers of burnout. Our culture is so go-go all the time, that it seems sinful to ease off. But I think that the more rah rah you are, the more the danger of burnout, which then makes you less effective as a business.
The first five years of business can be exciting and satisfying, and most owners are willing to put in the time, energy, space and money to try to succeed. But it's hard to maintain that level of energy forever. It is possible to take the financial success that results, and find a level that is self-sustainable.
If you can do those two things, then you have succeeded.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
"I'd rather have something to sell."
I was talking to some friends last night about how, despite having been in business for so long, things were as uncertain as ever. There apparently never does come a time when you can rest on your laurels.
It's funny how things work. Who would have thought that New Books would be the product that is making up for some of the lost revenue in other categories -- categories that aren't challenged by digital?
It's not really known, but physical book sales aren't really down all that much nationwide. Certainly not the holocaust that seems to be everyone's impression. But there is an obvious slow encroachment.
To my mind, the original Borders and Barnes and Noble cut into any fat that independent bookstores had (probably not much fat to be cut, but..you know: "You've got mail!") Then Amazon came along and cut into the muscle. And now e-books are cutting into the bone.
The article in today's Bulletin about bookstores had the usual mantra of things that are going to save bookstores that boiled down to two things: promotional events and discounts.
Yet, somehow, those things don't appear to be working all that well. I'm convinced as always that you need inventory, inventory, inventory. And anything that costs extra labor (such as events) or extra space (ditto) or giving away margins (discounts and clubs) should be avoided as much as possible. The accent here is on "extra" but I'll be darned if I can see how you can provide all these things without either spending extra on space and time and margins -- or working those extras yourself -- which is a recipe for burnout.
The head of the Bend Downtowners was in the other day, and he mentioned a rule of thumb that said, "You'll lose 20% of your customers every year, that's why I keep encouraging you to do more advertising..."
"I pay the high rent in downtown Bend to pay for a location where I get walk by traffic," I said. "That's my advertising."
(What I could have said, is : Well, my store is still profitable while a full third of the downtown stores have turned over in the last two and a half years...)
From my perspective -- I have a certain amount of money to spend. I always know of dozens of products that have recently sold, that have sold over and over again, and that I'm pretty sure I can sell again.
So I can order that product, or divert that money and time and space and effort into advertising and promotions.
If there ever comes a time when I've run out of things to sell, and I have extra money and time and space, then maybe I'll advertise.
Until then, I'd rather have something to sell.
It's funny how things work. Who would have thought that New Books would be the product that is making up for some of the lost revenue in other categories -- categories that aren't challenged by digital?
It's not really known, but physical book sales aren't really down all that much nationwide. Certainly not the holocaust that seems to be everyone's impression. But there is an obvious slow encroachment.
To my mind, the original Borders and Barnes and Noble cut into any fat that independent bookstores had (probably not much fat to be cut, but..you know: "You've got mail!") Then Amazon came along and cut into the muscle. And now e-books are cutting into the bone.
The article in today's Bulletin about bookstores had the usual mantra of things that are going to save bookstores that boiled down to two things: promotional events and discounts.
Yet, somehow, those things don't appear to be working all that well. I'm convinced as always that you need inventory, inventory, inventory. And anything that costs extra labor (such as events) or extra space (ditto) or giving away margins (discounts and clubs) should be avoided as much as possible. The accent here is on "extra" but I'll be darned if I can see how you can provide all these things without either spending extra on space and time and margins -- or working those extras yourself -- which is a recipe for burnout.
The head of the Bend Downtowners was in the other day, and he mentioned a rule of thumb that said, "You'll lose 20% of your customers every year, that's why I keep encouraging you to do more advertising..."
"I pay the high rent in downtown Bend to pay for a location where I get walk by traffic," I said. "That's my advertising."
(What I could have said, is : Well, my store is still profitable while a full third of the downtown stores have turned over in the last two and a half years...)
From my perspective -- I have a certain amount of money to spend. I always know of dozens of products that have recently sold, that have sold over and over again, and that I'm pretty sure I can sell again.
So I can order that product, or divert that money and time and space and effort into advertising and promotions.
If there ever comes a time when I've run out of things to sell, and I have extra money and time and space, then maybe I'll advertise.
Until then, I'd rather have something to sell.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Top 100 S.F. and Fantasy Books.
NPR has produced a list of the top 100 S.F. and Fantasy Books.
Turns out, I actively carry 80 of them, in full or part. (Some come in used often enough, that I don't get them new.)
I have read 77 of them, in full or part, and I've read 37 out of the first 40.
About 20 of these titles I don't carry because I just don't believe they are worthy, though this list may help me change my mind. I'll probably add about 15 of them to the rolls.
About 10 of the ones I don't carry, I just never thought of as S.F. per se.
And about 5 I just haven't read and didn't know were so highly thought of.
I'm going to put a (X) in front of every book I've read.
I'm going to put a * in front of every book I try to carry. (I may not always have a copy in stock, but the intent is there.)
I'm going to put a (?) with every book I think is dubious listed as S.F.
I'm going to put a (WTF) with every book I don't think is good enough.
If I don't say anything about a book, it means I totally agree with it's listing.
Turns out, I actively carry 80 of them, in full or part. (Some come in used often enough, that I don't get them new.)
I have read 77 of them, in full or part, and I've read 37 out of the first 40.
About 20 of these titles I don't carry because I just don't believe they are worthy, though this list may help me change my mind. I'll probably add about 15 of them to the rolls.
About 10 of the ones I don't carry, I just never thought of as S.F. per se.
And about 5 I just haven't read and didn't know were so highly thought of.
I'm going to put a (X) in front of every book I've read.
I'm going to put a * in front of every book I try to carry. (I may not always have a copy in stock, but the intent is there.)
I'm going to put a (?) with every book I think is dubious listed as S.F.
I'm going to put a (WTF) with every book I don't think is good enough.
If I don't say anything about a book, it means I totally agree with it's listing.
*(X) 1. The Lord Of The Rings Trilogy, by J.R.R. Tolkien (Countless times....)
*(X) 2. The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy, by Douglas Adams (1st book; not my cup of tea.)
*(X) 3. Ender's Game, by Orson Scott Card (1st book great, descends in quality...)
*(X) 4. The Dune Chronicles, by Frank Herbert (1st book great, descends in quality...)
*(X) 5. A Song Of Ice And Fire Series, by George R. R. Martin
*(X) 6. 1984, by George Orwell
*(X) 7. Fahrenheit 451, by Ray Bradbury
*(X) 8. The Foundation Trilogy, by Isaac Asimov
*(X) 9. Brave New World, by Aldous Huxley
*(X) 10. American Gods, by Neil Gaiman
*(X) 11. The Princess Bride, by William Goldman
*12. The Wheel Of Time Series, by Robert Jordan. (Haven't read because seems too basic. Carry in the store, however.)
*(X) 13. Animal Farm, by George Orwell
*(X) 14. Neuromancer, by William Gibson
*(X) 15. Watchmen, by Alan Moore (First comic on the list.)
*(X) 16. I, Robot, by Isaac Asimov
*(X) 17. Stranger In A Strange Land, by Robert Heinlein
*(X) 18. The Kingkiller Chronicles, by Patrick Rothfuss (This is my new favorite series...)
*(X) 19. Slaughterhouse-Five, by Kurt Vonnegut (?)
*(X) 20. Frankenstein, by Mary Shelley
*21. Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheep?, by Philip K. Dick (Never got around to reading because of Bladerunner.)
22. The Handmaid's Tale, by Margaret Atwood (?)
*(X) 23. The Dark Tower Series, by Stephen King
*(X) 24. 2001: A Space Odyssey, by Arthur C. Clarke
*(X) 25. The Stand, by Stephen King
*(X) 26. Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson
*(X) 27. The Martian Chronicles, by Ray Bradbury
*(X) 28. Cat's Cradle, by Kurt Vonnegut (?)
*(X) 29. The Sandman Series, by Neil Gaiman (2nd comic series listed. Much as I love Gaiman's prose, I think THIS is his magnum opus.)
*30. A Clockwork Orange, by Anthony Burgess (No excuses -- again, the movie -- plus it's hard to get through the made-up language.)
*(X) 31. Starship Troopers, by Robert Heinlein
*(X) 32. Watership Down, by Richard Adams
(X) 33. Dragonflight, by Anne McCaffrey (Don't carry, but probably will now.)
*(X) 34. The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, by Robert Heinlein
*(X) 35. A Canticle For Leibowitz, by Walter M. Miller
*(X) 36. The Time Machine, by H.G. Wells
*(X) 37. 20,000 Leagues Under The Sea, by Jules Verne
*(X) 38. Flowers For Algernon, by Daniel Keys
*(X) 39. The War Of The Worlds, by H.G. Wells
*(X) 40. The Chronicles Of Amber, by Roger Zelazny (Personally, I like Lord of Light)
(X) 41. The Belgariad, by David Eddings (An average fantasy, as far as I'm concerned. But maybe I'll start carrying it.)
*42. The Mists Of Avalon, by Marion Zimmer Bradley (WTF) (Sorry, just never appealed to me. Read so slowly, I gave up. I gave this an in stock * because it's always floating around used.)
*43. The Mistborn Series, by Brandon Sanderson (I don't know, I might try reading this.)
*(X) 44. Ringworld, by Larry Niven
*(X) 45. The Left Hand Of Darkness, by Ursula K. LeGuin
*46. The Silmarillion, by J.R.R. Tolkien (Believe it or not, I couldn't finish. Came out too long after my mania for Tolkien.)
*(X) 47. The Once And Future King, by T.H. White (Wonderful book.)
*(X) 48. Neverwhere, by Neil Gaiman
*(X) 49. Childhood's End, by Arthur C. Clarke
*(X) 50. Contact, by Carl Sagan (I've listed that I carry it, because I always have a used copy...)
*(X) 51. The Hyperion Cantos, by Dan Simmons
* 52. Stardust, by Neil Gaiman (Starting to see a pattern; if I've seen the movie, I don't read the book.)
*(X) 53. Cryptonomicon, by Neal Stephenson (Also the Baroque Trilogy -- great stuff.)
*54. World War Z, by Max Brooks (Everyone keeps telling me to read this.)
*(X) 55. The Last Unicorn, by Peter S. Beagle
*(X) 56. The Forever War, by Joe Haldeman
57. Small Gods, by Terry Pratchett (Like Hitchhikers, I just don't enjoy the "cute" S.F.)
*(X) 58. The Chronicles Of Thomas Covenant, The Unbeliever, by Stephen R. Donaldson (WTF) (I really HATED this series -- threw the 3rd book across the room. The writer just came out early in the fantasy sweepstakes and got lucky -- only one series is worst, which I'll mention when we get there. * because it's always around used.)
*(X) 59. The Vorkosigan Saga, by Lois McMaster Bujold (Best S.F. series out there that only those who have read it know about. HIGHLY recommended.)
60. Going Postal, by Terry Pratchett
*(X) 61. The Mote In God's Eye, by Larry Niven & Jerry Pournelle
62. The Sword Of Truth, by Terry Goodkind (WTF) (I tried reading this, but it was such hackwork, I gave up. Really, people? Read a good fantasy instead.)
*(X) 63. The Road, by Cormac McCarthy (?)
*(X) 64. Jonathan Strange & Mr Norrell, by Susanna Clark. (I wanted to like this book more than I did. I appreciated it more than liked it.)
*(X) 65. I Am Legend, by Richard Matheson
(X) 66. The Riftwar Saga, by Raymond E. Feist (To me, another average fantasy series. However, like Eddings and Hobb, it was O.K. so I may start carrying it.)
(X) 67. The Shannara Trilogy, by Terry Brooks (WTF) (The only series I loathed more than Donaldson's. Again, got lucky in the timing. Shameless and poorly written. Arrgggh.)
*(X) 68. The Conan The Barbarian Series, by R.E. Howard
(X) 69. The Farseer Trilogy, by Robin Hobb (Again, O.K. fantasy -- may carry it.)
*70. The Time Traveler's Wife, by Audrey Niffenegger (?) (I carry this, but in regular fiction.)
*71. The Way Of Kings, by Brandon Sanderson (Can't judge, because I haven't read him.)
*(X) 72. A Journey To The Center Of The Earth, by Jules Verne
*73. The Legend Of Drizzt Series, by R.A. Salvatore (I didn't want to read this, because it's a franchise, but so many people have recommended it, that I may try someday.)
*(X) 74. Old Man's War, by John Scalzi (?) (Just seems like an O.K. writer to me, but people love him.)
*(X) 75. The Diamond Age, by Neil Stephenson
*(X) 76. Rendezvous With Rama, by Arthur C. Clarke
*77. The Kushiel's Legacy Series, by Jacqueline Carey (?) (Honestly, I don't know anything about this one. Which is unusual, as you can tell. Turns out I'm carrying it though.)
*(X) 78. The Dispossessed, by Ursula K. LeGuin
*(X) 79. Something Wicked This Way Comes, by Ray Bradbury
80. Wicked, by Gregory Maguire (?)
*(X) 81. The Malazan Book Of The Fallen Series, by Steven Erikson (Interesting attempt to be different, but really not that well written -- lots of words and slow rollout.)
82. The Eyre Affair, by Jasper Fforde (?) Wow. I haven't even HEARD of this book!
*(X) 83. The Culture Series, by Iain M. Banks (Best S.F. going...)
(X) 84. The Crystal Cave, by Mary Stewart (Read it years ago, never thought to carry.)
*(X) 85. Anathem, by Neal Stephenson
*86. The Codex Alera Series, by Jim Butcher (Author is REALLY popular -- because of the Dresden books which they must consider horror.)
(X) 87. The Book Of The New Sun, by Gene Wolfe (Really should carry this, but seems like not all the books are in print. I'll try again.
88. The Thrawn Trilogy, by Timothy Zahn (As I mentioned about, I don't tend to read "for hire" franchise fiction. In this case, Star Wars.)
*89. The Outlander Series, by Diana Gabaldan (Linda loved this, and I've always meant to read it.)
*(X) 90. The Elric Saga, by Michael Moorcock
*(X) 91. The Illustrated Man, by Ray Bradbury
92. Sunshine, by Robin McKinley (?) ( Another book I don't know anything about. I wonder if these books just have a strong fan lobby. (See Butcher, above.) I didn't like her fantasy books...)
*(X) 93. A Fire Upon The Deep, by Vernor Vinge
*(X) 94. The Caves Of Steel, by Isaac Asimov
*(X) 95. The Mars Trilogy, by Kim Stanley Robinson
(X) 96. Lucifer's Hammer, by Larry Niven & Jerry Pournelle (Should and will carry.)
(X) 97. Doomsday Book, by Connie Willis (Another book I appreciated more than liked. Should and will carry.)
*(X) 98. Perdido Street Station, by China Mieville (State of the art S.F. writing.)
*(X) 99. The Xanth Series, by Piers Anthony (First three books were moderately amusing.)
100. The Space Trilogy, by C.S. Lewis (Sorry. As much as I loved Narnia and half a dozen other Lewis books, I just couldn't read this turgid thing.)
There is a huge bias toward newer and more popular titles -- which isn't the same thing as TOP in my opinion.
To this list, I would add Armor, by John Steakley; Titan, John Varley; Lord of Light and The Immortal, by Roger Zelazny; Tunnel in the Sky, Robert Heinlein; The Iron Dragon's Daughter, Michael Swanwick; Lensmen, E.E. Doc Smith; Gateway, Frederik Pohl; Waystation, Clifford Simak. Lord Valentine's Castle, Robert Silverberg; Uplift Trilogy, David Brin; The Mars books, Edgar Rice Burroughs; Yarrow, Charles DeLint; Deathworld, (and Stainless Steel Rat) Harry Harrison; Norstrillia, Cordwainer Smith....and many others of the older kind.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
No matter what anyone else says.
I had a customer ask me how the store was doing. I waggled my eyebrows and laughed.
"Well, you know with the encouragement of the stock market, well, you know...."
Actually though, I don't expect the stock market plunge to have an immediate effect on sales. It doesn't work that way. It will take a sustained drop before people start changing behavior.
Besides, it's summer. If I'm going to have good sales, it is in the summer.
I'm almost positive we'll beat last year in August; just as we beat last July by about 10%.
That sounds good, right? But when I look at last year with cold, calculating eyes -- instead of casually averting my eyes like I have for most of the year (because an actual upturn gives me the courage) I can see how utterly dismal last summer was.
Here's how the sales have gone since the great recession started. One full down year after Lehman Brother's collapse, then as we cycled a year back over that awful September, I had seven up months, then last April, another decline of 14 months, until this summer when we've been handily beating last year. I think this is likely to continue into the fall.
What we are doing, here, is bouncing off the bottoms of previous cycles. (Dead Cat Bounces.) For instance, when we had that expected unexpected drop in April and May, I had to start cutting costs which then impacted on June, July, and Aug. and now I'm cycling a year after that and easily beating the dismal summer.
If it was the stock market, it would be called a "bear market rally."
As I've mentioned before, the only statistic that really matters is my break-even point. If I take my fixed expenses (including what I pay myself) and divide that amount by my average profit margin, I have to make (X) amount of money to break even.
I prepared for the Great Recession by pushing my sales as high as I could, increasing my margins as best I could, and keeping my fixed expenses as low as I could. When the downturn started, I could give away a little more than half of my sales and still be above the break-even point.
It's never gotten close to that bad, fortunately.
I doubt there are very many small businesses that can sustain a 50% drop, few that can handle a 40% drop, most probably can't handle a 30% drop without help, a 20% would be painful for most, and a 10% might be enough to actually destroy an unprepared (overly indebted or high fixed expenses or low margins or barely good enough sales.)
All these shocks do is remind me to keep watching my P & Q's and not expect any real change to the economy for years to come.
No matter what anyone else says.
"Well, you know with the encouragement of the stock market, well, you know...."
Actually though, I don't expect the stock market plunge to have an immediate effect on sales. It doesn't work that way. It will take a sustained drop before people start changing behavior.
Besides, it's summer. If I'm going to have good sales, it is in the summer.
I'm almost positive we'll beat last year in August; just as we beat last July by about 10%.
That sounds good, right? But when I look at last year with cold, calculating eyes -- instead of casually averting my eyes like I have for most of the year (because an actual upturn gives me the courage) I can see how utterly dismal last summer was.
Here's how the sales have gone since the great recession started. One full down year after Lehman Brother's collapse, then as we cycled a year back over that awful September, I had seven up months, then last April, another decline of 14 months, until this summer when we've been handily beating last year. I think this is likely to continue into the fall.
What we are doing, here, is bouncing off the bottoms of previous cycles. (Dead Cat Bounces.) For instance, when we had that expected unexpected drop in April and May, I had to start cutting costs which then impacted on June, July, and Aug. and now I'm cycling a year after that and easily beating the dismal summer.
If it was the stock market, it would be called a "bear market rally."
As I've mentioned before, the only statistic that really matters is my break-even point. If I take my fixed expenses (including what I pay myself) and divide that amount by my average profit margin, I have to make (X) amount of money to break even.
I prepared for the Great Recession by pushing my sales as high as I could, increasing my margins as best I could, and keeping my fixed expenses as low as I could. When the downturn started, I could give away a little more than half of my sales and still be above the break-even point.
It's never gotten close to that bad, fortunately.
I doubt there are very many small businesses that can sustain a 50% drop, few that can handle a 40% drop, most probably can't handle a 30% drop without help, a 20% would be painful for most, and a 10% might be enough to actually destroy an unprepared (overly indebted or high fixed expenses or low margins or barely good enough sales.)
All these shocks do is remind me to keep watching my P & Q's and not expect any real change to the economy for years to come.
No matter what anyone else says.
Downtown Comings and Goings. 8/11/11.
I see there is a new sandwich shop, Plankers. It's in the space the Crepe Place was in.
A new women's clothing shop, Faveur, has opened next to the Bend Burger Company. (The Shear Illusions space.)
NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN
Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(Fall, 2008 or so).
BUSINESSES LEAVING
Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
A new women's clothing shop, Faveur, has opened next to the Bend Burger Company. (The Shear Illusions space.)
NEW BUSINESSES DOWNTOWN
Plankers, Wall St., 7/11.
Faveur, Franklin, 7/11.
Dream Pebbles, Minnesota Ave., 6/15/11.
Bend Yogurt Factory, Franklin/Bond, 4/26/11.
High Desert Lotus, Bond St. , 4/4/11.
Tryst, Franklin Ave., 3/11/11. (Formerly Maryjanes, **Moved**).
D'Vine, Wall St. , 2/9/11.
Let it Ride!, Bond St., 1/29/11.
Gatsby's Brasserie Bar, Minnesota Ave., 1/8/11
Tres Jolie, Wall St., 12/20/10.
Caldera Grill, Bond St., 12/7/10
Bond Street Grill, 12/7/10.
Perspective(s), Minnesota Ave., 11/20/10
Toth Art Collective, Bond St. 11/20/10
Boken, Breezeway, 11/20/10
Dalia and Emilia, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Antiquarian Books, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Giddyup, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
The Closet, Minnesota Ave., 8/11/10.
Showcase Hats, Oregon Ave., 8/11/10,
Red Chair Art Gallery, Oregon Ave. 7/13/10.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 7/12/10.
Mad Happy Lounge, Brooks St., 6/2910
Common Table, Oregon Ave. , 6/29/10.
Looney Bean Coffee, Brooks St. , 6/29/10.
Bourbon Street, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
Feather's Edge, Minnesota Ave., 6/22/10
The BLVD., Wall St. , 6/13/10.
Volt, Minnesota Ave. 6/1/10.
Tart, Minnesota Ave. , 5/13/10
Olivia Hunter, Wall St. 4/5/10.
Tres Chic, Bond St. 4/5/10
Blue Star Salon, Wall St. 4/1/10.
Lululemon, Bond St. 3/31/10.
Diana's Jewel Box, Minnesota Ave., 3/25/10.
Amalia's, Wall St. (Ciao Mambo space), 3/12/10
River Bend Fine Art, Bond St. (Kebanu space) 2/23/10
Federal Express, Oregon Ave. 2/1/10
***10 Below, Minnesota Ave. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota Ave. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota Ave., 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe, 25 N.W. Minnesota Ave, Suite #7. 11/5/09
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09 (**Moved, Wall St.**)
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09 (*Moved to Oregon Ave. 4/5/10.)
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails
(Fall, 2008 or so).
BUSINESSES LEAVING
Shear Illusions, Franklin Ave., 7/11.
Crepe Place, Wall St., 7/11.
Pita Pit, Brooks St. , 6/28/11
Smith and Wade Salon, Minnesota, Av. , 6/3/11.
Perspectives, Minnesota Av., 6/1/11
River Bend Art Gallery, Bond St., 5/5/11.
Donner's Flowers, Wall St. 3/11/11. (**Moved out of downtown**)
Maryjanes, Wall St. , 3/11/11. (new name, Tryst, moved to Franklin.).
Di Lusso, Franklin/Bond, 2/9/11.
Earth Sense Herbs, Penny's Galleria, 1/2/11
Marz Bistro, Minnesota Av., 12/20/10.
The Decoy, Bond St., 12/7/10.
Giuseppe's, Bond St., 12/1/10.
Ina Louise, Minnesota Ave., 11/3/10.
Laughing Girl Studios, 10/21/10
Dolce Vita, Bond St, 10/21/10
Diana's Jewell Box, Minnesota Ave., 10/15/10.
Lola's, Breezeway, 10/8/10.
Oxygen Tattoo, Bond St., 10/3/10.
Great Outdoor Clothing, Wall St., 10/3/10.
Volcano Vineyards, Minnesota Ave., 10/3/10.
Subway Sandwiches, Bond St. 9/2/10.
Old Bend Distillery, Brooks St., 6/19/10.
Staccato, Minnesota Ave. 6/18/10.
Showcase Hats, Minnesota Ave., 6/1/10 (Moved to Oregon Ave., 8/10/11.)
Cork, Oregon Ave., 5/27/10.
Wall Street Gifts, 5/26/10
Microsphere, Wall St. , 5/17/10.
Singing Sparrow, Franklin and Bond, 5/15/10
28, Minnesota Ave. and Bond, 5/13/10.
Glass Symphony, Wall St., 3/25/10
Bend Home Hardware, Minnesota Ave, 2/25/10
Ciao Mambo, Wall St. 2/4/10
***Angel Kisses 1/25/10 (Have moved to 'Honey.')
Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Ownership.
This might be somewhat contradictory. I like owning things -- but I don't like collecting things.
I guess, by collecting, I'm thinking of idea of buying something because you think it might be "worth" something beyond the intrinsic value of the item. That, I believe, is a giant con game. 90% of 'collectibles' are crap, and the 10% that isn't crap is hard to find and hard to sell.
On the other hand, actually owning an item makes it yours.
There is an article in the Bulletin today: "We're paying less for music, but we're getting less, too," that asserts that making art free devalues the experience of art.
Good luck with that argument.
Anyway, I'm about to make a big book order, which flies in the face of current trends. Why?
Because I believe there are still people who want to "own" a book; and "owning" a digital version just isn't the same thing. In fact, I have to wonder if you "own" a digital version at all, or are just borrowing it.
So, which is more important? The experience of reading a book or owning a book? Well, obviously, I come down on the side of reading more than owning. Much like I think owning a "collectible" because it looks nice is more important than thinking it should be squirreled away in it's original packaging and untouched.
Still -- I like "owning" at least some of the books I read. I'll do the 90% rule again -- I probably can let go of 90% of the books I read, and keep the 10%.
So by that reasoning, there are going to be shops who can survive who sell the 10% of books, movies, and CD's that people want to own.
I've mentioned before -- because of my location in a busy downtown that has tourist business, I've repositioned my store to be more of a "gift" shop; with items that people don't see everywhere else, as intriguing as I can make them, and hopefully something they want to take home with them.
To own.
If I'm right about this -- there will be room for 10 or 20% as many venues as there were before the digital revolution started. This will probably take a few years to diminish into this lower level.
And if I'm right about this, the bigger mass market type stores won't survive at all selling music, books, and movies -- anything that can be done "free" on the internet. Ironically, it will be the little guys who combine a savvy selection of the physical, with a shopping experience, and can get people to pay the price for Ownership.
I guess, by collecting, I'm thinking of idea of buying something because you think it might be "worth" something beyond the intrinsic value of the item. That, I believe, is a giant con game. 90% of 'collectibles' are crap, and the 10% that isn't crap is hard to find and hard to sell.
On the other hand, actually owning an item makes it yours.
There is an article in the Bulletin today: "We're paying less for music, but we're getting less, too," that asserts that making art free devalues the experience of art.
Good luck with that argument.
Anyway, I'm about to make a big book order, which flies in the face of current trends. Why?
Because I believe there are still people who want to "own" a book; and "owning" a digital version just isn't the same thing. In fact, I have to wonder if you "own" a digital version at all, or are just borrowing it.
So, which is more important? The experience of reading a book or owning a book? Well, obviously, I come down on the side of reading more than owning. Much like I think owning a "collectible" because it looks nice is more important than thinking it should be squirreled away in it's original packaging and untouched.
Still -- I like "owning" at least some of the books I read. I'll do the 90% rule again -- I probably can let go of 90% of the books I read, and keep the 10%.
So by that reasoning, there are going to be shops who can survive who sell the 10% of books, movies, and CD's that people want to own.
I've mentioned before -- because of my location in a busy downtown that has tourist business, I've repositioned my store to be more of a "gift" shop; with items that people don't see everywhere else, as intriguing as I can make them, and hopefully something they want to take home with them.
To own.
If I'm right about this -- there will be room for 10 or 20% as many venues as there were before the digital revolution started. This will probably take a few years to diminish into this lower level.
And if I'm right about this, the bigger mass market type stores won't survive at all selling music, books, and movies -- anything that can be done "free" on the internet. Ironically, it will be the little guys who combine a savvy selection of the physical, with a shopping experience, and can get people to pay the price for Ownership.
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