Sunday, January 10, 2010

Downtown Openings and Closings, Update.

I added the gallery profiled in the latest Source, even though it's a second story walk-up and is in a space that probably normally would be office space.

And, I decided to add the restaurant beneath the new Oxford Hotel; with a couple of asterisks because it's debatable if it's a separate business from the parent.

Really, this is an excuse to talk about the new Oxford.

Fabulous looking.

Oh, that signs looks so damn classy when I look down the street at night.

I don't know about anyone elses definition of an 'anchor' on the street, but it seems to me to lock in solid the vibrancy of Minnesota Ave. Having spent most of my career in the orphan red-headed buck-toothed stepchild part of downtown, it's exciting to see. And pure luck that I'm in the middle of it.

I'm hoping that the kind of people who would choose a boutique hotel will be in intrigued by my funky, quirky mix. I'm sure they can't be all that excited by the Gap. So my kind of idiosyncratic business may be exactly what they're looking for.

I can hope.

NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

***10 Below, Minnesota St. 1/10/10
Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails



BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
***Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
***Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
***Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
***King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
***Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Ali Baba's Cave.

I visited Barnes and Nobles the other morning with Linda, (she needed a day calendar).

This is going to sound strange coming from a independent bookstore owner, but -- Why do we even bother? Why does anyone else even open a bookstore? Barnes and Nobles is the bee's knees, it's the cat's pajamas.

It is so jammed back with goodies.

I love books. How can I not love Barnes and Nobles? It's like Ali Baba's Cave in there....

The bastards.

I started seeing book after book I'd like to have in my store. I started to track down Linda to ask for paper and pen, then my shoulders sagged in defeat. I put my blinders on.

I hates them. I hates them I do.

How can anyone compete?

And yet....compete we do.

Thank goodness for a small selection of really good books, and readers who recognize and appreciate a quirky but quality selection, and a good foot traffic location, and the impulse buying of the readers, and an incipient rebellion against the 'big boxness' of it all, and the need to patronize a place that is 'human' sized and has a human behind the counter.

And, our sales of books were up 16% this Christmas, and Barnes and Nobles sales were down 5%.

I should probably point out that books are very much a sideline for us, becoming more significant with every passing month. But I wouldn't presume to talk for all independent booksellers...

Barnes and Nobles is going to bear the brunt of the online and e-book thing, the Amazon thing, the discount and pirate thing, and the mass market competition thing. Borders is just a harbinger of things to come. (Borders is probably on it's last legs.)

All that space and prime locations and ubiquitousness and huge inventories? Turns out it costs quite a bit of money, and the money comes from borrowing, which is just fine as long as you're growing and constantly opening new locations.

Stumble even a little bit, and Barnes and Nobles will turn into Borders....

Ironically, most of the independent bookstores have faced these issues for years, and have adjusted.

What's fair for the goose, is fair for the gander.

Friday, January 8, 2010

A smelly clump of mashed flowers and dried fruit.

I have clear sinuses for the first time in years.

I broke my nose skiing when I was 19 years old, and I believe I've had a low grade infection ever since.

I got two flu shots this last week, and the nurse told me my immune system would kick into overdrive.

Amazing to be able to breath out of both nostrils. I doubt it's enough to kill the bug completely -- and I've never had a severe regime of antibiotics; I'd rather save those for when I REALLY need them, thank you.

**********

Thing I've come to understand about California transplants, is that because they come from a place that has had it so much worse than Bend, that they therefore think they understand Bend.

No. Usually they don't get the isolation part, and they don't fully understand the population and seasonality of Bend. But they say they do.

Because Bend is smaller, they somehow think the problem is smaller.

For Commercial Real Estate, they think because California has so much more commercial real estate, that I must be joking to think that Bend has an even bigger CRE bubble.

They don't get the proportionality part. The difference in income. The 'island' nature of the
Bend economy. The glass ceiling of there being just so many people. If your business plan doesn't work here, there isnt an overflow from the next town over, or from the interstate, that can bail you out; no matter how good a job you do, you can't pull customers out of sagebrush high desert and pine forests.

But I've often wanted to say; "Have you ever considered that, after enduring a huge drop in housing and commercial real estate, that you are moving to an area that is JUST BEGINNING the same process?

**********

Huffington Post is reporting that 1 out of 5 men are unemployed.

Linda and I was just talking about that; it seems like people our age -- 50ish -- if they lose their job, simply CAN'T find another job. Too far from retirement.

And we feel lucky to own our own businesses, and have our fate in our own hands....

**********

Zine update. I had two people coming in to buy Rachel Lee-Carman's zines, which is a pretty good result considering Pegasus wasn't the primary or even the secondary focus of the article...

**********

'New' Coke. My immediate reaction, "What the f$%k is wrong with the old coke?"

Warner Brothers merging with AOL. My immediate reaction after hearing the news conference about the merger. "What the f$%k did they just say?"

Jay Leno on primetime. "Who the f^#K would want to watch Leno five nights a week on primetime?"

**********

Downtown Openings and Closings, Update.

Nothing new to report on the list. I was a little excited to see a Downtowner's announcement of 8 new businesses, but when I read the list, I'd already covered them. As I've said before, I really only count business's I consider retail, including restaurants. I'm not including soft services, such as ad agencies.

Anyway, Chuck Arnold of the Downtowners came in to tell me I'd been inaccurate with my "less than 10%" vacancy quote. This was a figure that had been mentioned in an article about downtown Lake Oswego, and my offhand comment was to 'quess' that Bend was similar. Chuck informed me that it was more like 5%, but then again, Chuck has access to the actual vacancy rate, I don't.

I told him

1.) Well, 5% is less than 10%.

2.) I was responding to the article about Lake Owego's downtown.

3.) Most importantly, I'd be more than willing, happy in fact, thrilled....if he would pick up the phone next time and tell me the more accurate info. And that I'd be glad to correct any information that is incorrect immediately.

I'm bringing this up, because there is another article in the paper today about downtown filling up (nicely), that mentions this list.

And to reinforce again, that it is meant neither to tear down, or cheerlead downtown. It's meant to be objective, because I'm a great believer than information is useful in it's own right. That you never know when information will be useful.

After all, I'm pretty sure that if you asked the average citizen of Bend whether more businesses have opened or closed, that without this list they'd guess closed.

I've always maintained that free and open information is more positive than negative, and wished that other retailers could see their way to being less secretive. But my theory is, the same personality that would open a business -- a riverboat gambler -- is the same personality who holds his cards close to his chest.



NEW BUSINESS'S DOWNTOWN

Tew Boots Gallery, Bond St. 1/8/10.
Top Leaf Mate, 12/10/09
Laughing Girls Studio, Minnesota St. 12/7/09
Lemon Drop, 5 Minnesota, 11/12/09
The Curiosity Shoppe 11/5/09 25 N.W. Minnesota, Suite #7.
Wabi Sabi 11/4/09
Frugal Boutique 11/4/09
5 Spice 10/22/09
Cowgirls Cash 10/17/09
***Haven Home 10/17/09
Dog Patch 10/17/09
The Good Drop 10/12/09
Lola's 9/23/09
**Volcano Wines 9/15/09
Singing Sparrow Flowers 8/16/09
Northwest Home Interiors 8/5/09
High Desert Frameworks 7/23/09
Wall Street Gifts 7/--/09
Ina Louise 7/14/09
Bend Home Hardware (Homestyle Hardware?) 7/1/09
Altera Real Estate 6/9/09
Honey 6/7/09
Azura Studio 6/7/09
Mary Jane's 6/1/09
c.c.McKenzie 6/1/09
Velvet 5/28/09
Bella Moda 3/25/09
High Desert Gallery (Bend) 3/25/09
Joolz
Zydeco
900 Wall
Great Outdoor Store
Luxe Home Interiors
Powell's Candy
Dudley's Used Books and Coffee
Goldsmith
Game Domain
Subway Sandwiches
Bend Burger Company
Showcase Hats
Pita Pit
Happy Nails



BUSINESS'S LEAVING

Ivy Rose Manor 8/20/09
**Downtowner 8/18/09 (moving into the Summit location)
Chocolate e Gateaux 8/16/09
Finders Keepers 8/15/09
Colourstone 7/25/09
Periwinkle 6/--/09
**Tangerine 7/21/09 (Got word, they are moving across the street.)**
Micheal Cassidy Gallery 6/15/09
St. Claire Coffee 6/15/09
Luxe Home Interiors 6/4/09
Treefort 5/8/09
Blue 5/2/09
**Volcano Tasting Room 4/28/09** Moved to Minnesota Ave.
Habit 4/16/09
Mountain Comfort 4/14/09
Tetherow Property 4/11/09
Blue Moon Marketplace 3/25/09
Plenty 3/25/09
Downtown Doggie 3/25/09
**King of Sole (became Mary Janes)**
Santee Alley
Bistro Corlise
Made in Hawaii
EnVogue
Stewart Weinmann (leather)
Kebanu Gallery
Pella Doors and Windows
Olive company
Pink Frog
Little Italy
Deep
Merenda's
Volo
**Pomegranate (downtown branch)**
Norwalk
Pronghorn Real Estate office.
Speedshop Deli
Paper Place
Bluefish Bistro

Thursday, January 7, 2010

What? It was a great decision until it went BAD!

Ho, hum. Another bank in trouble.

BULLETIN, 1/7/10.

High Desert Bank gets a "cease and desist" order, which "requires the bank to temporarily cease making any new commercial real estate...."

Right, O.

I continue reading.

The usual -- this "sounds a lot worse than it is..." from management. Check.

The bank is "...no danger of failing and remains 'well-capitalized' by regulatory standards."

Sure...that's why they sent you a "cease and desist" order.

No, says management, it's because the "...regulators are deathly afraid of this market and the commercial real estate market, and it's just got them extremely concerned...."

Gee, I wonder why? Cause, you know, nothing has happened lately to cause concern....

So I'm to believe the regulators are a bunch of panicked ninnies, and that we're just fine, move along, nothing to see here?

Except I have the opposite suspicion. Here's what I think is happening with regional banks:

My guess is that they're rolling up bad banks little by little so as to NOT cause a panic. That if they were closing the banks by the old standards, there would be a blood bath.

Anyway, the defense by management so far is what we've heard before from other local banks. All this is to be expected.

Then there is the next comment by management:

"Banks have had some problem loans and I'm not immune to that. I don't think we made poor decisions; they were very good decisions when we made the loans."

Whoa, Nelly. Let me repeat that priceless gem.

"I DON'T THINK WE MADE POOR DECISIONS; THEY WERE VERY GOOD DECISIONS WHEN WE MADE THE LOANS."

For god's sake! They were lousy decisions, as time and experience has confirmed. You're like the guy falling off the hundred story building that is asked at the fiftieth floor how it's going. "Everything's great so far!"

Here's what I'd do if I was managing one of these problem banks. I'd fess up, and tell everyone that I'm doing everything I can to correct the problem. Just that.

Because no one is going to believe you when you say, "We're just fine."

And no one is going to give you much credit for good judgment when you defend very poor decisions, by saying they weren't poor decisions at the time. Every decision that ends poorly was a 'bad' decision by definition. You aren't a politician hoping the public forgets what you said and did a couple years ago. You are a financial institution, and your financial decisions have consequences to you and your shareholders.

Your job as a banker is to manage risk. If you get the risk/reward ratio wrong, you get a "cease and desist" order.

Fess up.

I fear for this economy if -- when this is all over -- all the banks and thrifts and retail stores and politicians and economic professors and stock brokers attribute it all to Bad Luck and Bad Timing and Mysterious Forces and Who Could Have Known? and

"I DON'T THINK WE MADE BAD DECISIONS; THEY WERE VERY GOOD DECISIONS WHEN WE MADE THE LOANS."

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

December, 2009, results.

Overall, we were up 10% for the month of December, which means we've been over last year's sales in Sept., Oct., Nov. and December. I'd call that a trend.

Still, I'm leery of this year, and I'm only going to try to match last year's totals for the first half of 2010.

COMICS: Up 17%. Love them or hate them, the big 'Event' stories do bump up the sales, and it was nice to have DC Comics joining Marvel in the best-sellers. Black Lantern has been a phenomenon. I think I lost most of my significant customers in the first 6 months of the Great Recession.

DVD's: Since I'm more of less clearing these out -- not permanently, but just so I can reposition them-- sales are up and down. They were down about half this Christmas.

SPORTS CARDS: Up 20%. Cards are pretty fluky, these days. Depends on how many box buyers I have on any given month.

CARD GAMES: Down about 32%. This has been happening for awhile, indeed it happens every time I have a competitor who actually provides game space. In the past, I've discounted in response, but this time I'm not going to do that. It's still a significant sideline, and I'd rather earn proper profits on lower sales, than insufficient profits on higher sales and concentrate on those sidelines that are working.

GAMES: Boardgames did very well this Christmas, and it was nice to have a Christmas-like product for once. Summers and Christmas seem to be the time for boardgames.

BOOKS: Up 16%. Not record territory, but within striking distance.

TOYS: Almost exactly the same. Always the best month of the year. Duh.

GRAPHIC NOVELS: Down significantly. Watchmen was still selling last year, and manga is still sliding. Plus, I suspect a few more titles are being included in the book section that used to be included in the GN section.

Overall, I'm pleased. With Christmas, a few days can make all the difference.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

My Doctors are dropping like flies.

I had a couple hours off late yesterday afternoon, and decided to bop by my doctor's office and see if I could get a swine flu shot. I talk Linda into going with me.

We walk up to the medical clinic, and notice my doctor's name isn't on the list printed on the door. Uh, oh.

"Is Dr. So and So here?"

An almost sneer from the receptionists. "He was here for only a short time....please go to the other window."

Argghh.. This is like my fourth doctor in 6 years that I've lost through no fault of my own.

"Um....can my wife and I get a flu shot?" I say to the other receptionist, who's eyeballing me leerily.

"Only if you have an account with us...."

WTF? Linda and talk a moment, and decide I might as well get my shots.

The people in the office and even in the waiting room seem to be sniggering, and I realize I'm being a little too extroverted. All friendly-like, like I would be in my own store. I've discovered this manner works great when I'm the host, not so great when I'm the guest. This is an Office! There are sick people here! Tone it down!

I tone it down.

"I have an account. My name is Duncan McGeary...."

I start filling out a short form, and not 30 seconds later, I hear my name called.

"Which shot do you want, the regular or the swine flu?" the nurse asks, as she leads me back to the shot center.

"Both!"

I see a hitch in her stride.

"Well," she says, in a huff. "I have the regular flu ready to give you. I can give you a swine flue shot, later."

"That's fine," I've decided to be a Buddha in the face of medical office recalcitrance. These folk deal with sick people all day, and endless red tape -- I'd be grumpy too.

"You don't have diabetes or asthma or anything?"

"Nope! Healthy as a horse."

"Well, you really aren't in the 'at risk' group, you know."

Now I'm wondering what's going on. I thought they WANTED us to get flu shots. "This is the first time I've ever gotten a shot," I say. "I'm 57, I thought that I had to be slightly older to be immune."

"Well," she says grudgingly. "That's true....."

"Look, " I say. "I'll be glad to wait if you're short of doses...."

"No, no..." I can see her start to soften.

"I mean, I understood that there was an all clear signal on swine flue shots. I own a business, and can't afford to be gone for long, and I'm exposed to the public...but really, I'd be more than happy to wait."

"Well," she says, with a much cheerier tone. "I appreciate the offer. But it's O.K. But if I were you, I wouldn't get both shots at the same time."

"I'm a trooper," I say. (Inside I flinch -- why do doctor's offices always make me feel six years old again? I'm a big boy, I am!)

"Yes, but for some patients, their immune system kicks in, and they get minor flu like symptoms for a few hours."

"Right!" I say. "I'll come back tomorrow."

My guess is that they are so used to warding off unworthy swine flue seekers, that they haven't changed their tone, even though the need to ward off swiny unworthies is over.

Back in the office, Linda decides that she'll set up an appointment with one of the doctor's, since she hadn't been happy with her last visit, and we both choose the new doctor. For now. We can check up on the doctor list, later. One of the nurses comes out and recognizes Linda and they banter about books for awhile, and the office people soften toward both of us another few degrees.

All in all, an interesting experience. But I only have to see them once a year, for a check up, at least for now. And they are only a few short blocks from my house...

I went home, and boy did I have a reaction. Stuffy and coughing and I believe maybe a bit of a fever. Feel fine this morning. If that was just a minor dose of what I could've gotten, I'm glad to avoid it.

I'll bop by for my swine flue shot this morning.