Todays Bulletin, Business page.
DOWNTOWN BEND BUSINESS ASSOCIATION WANTS A NEW FEE STRUCTURE.
"Downtown Bend businesses that are not members of the Downtown Bend Business Association could see a spike in their Economic Improvement District fees this spring, while those that are members would see their fees drop under a new plan proposed at a regular monthly meeting Wednesday."
WAIT! They can do that? They can charge non members -- non voting members -- more money for not being part of their club?
Lots of us moved Downtown instead of the mall to avoid interference by the Mall Rules.
What next? Are they going to dictate our hours? Tell us what kind of Christmas decorations to put up?
"If supported by at least two-thirds of downtown property owners and passed by the Bend City Council in March, the new three-year EID levy would require all downtown businesses to pay for membership in the association, said Chuck Arnold, executive director."
I'm stunned they even have the power to do this. I didn't ask anything of them. Indeed, I've often wished they just stop doing anything at all. I think the days we need a quasi-governmental organization Downtown to promote things are over. I'd just as soon skip the street closures and the rest.
"EID fees pay for all those things that a visitor to downtown Bend might take for granted, including flower baskets, holiday lights and snow removal. Events organized by the association, such as Art Hop, Oktoberfest and sidewalk sales, also would be in jeopardy if the extension of the EID is not passed."
Oh, my God! We might lose the flower baskets? That changes everything.
Sidewalk sale? All you do is have a Sidewalk Sale! Don't need a tax for that!
Look, I'll decorate the tree in front of my place. I promise. A few bucks and few hours a year, I can do that. I don't need Big Brother to do it. Snow removal? I'm also paying my landlord through triple net for that service, but you know what?
I'VE BEEN REMOVING THE SNOW! Either they are showing up way past the point of usefulness, or they aren't showing up at all. Either way, no big loss. In fact, it's a perfect example of why I wish they would butt out. If I clear the sidewalk, the sun almost inevitably creates bare sidewalks. If they throw that damn chemical on the snow, whatever the evil poisonous concoction it is, the snow turns into glop and sticks around forever, coming into my store and creating little grey sculptures on my carpet. Please....no CHEMICAL!
Not my choice, apparently.
Art Hop? If the businesses who benefit from this -- and any business that closes before 6:00 doesn't -- then let THEM support it.
As I've said, I'd just as soon NEVER close the streets. But now I also will have to Pay for the privilege of losing money on those days.
If there isn't enough volunteer interest to keep the Tree Lighting, and the Christmas Parade, and the Fourth of July Parade going, then they are done.
I doubt very much that is what would happen, though. I think there is enough civic pride to keep the tradition events going just fine.
But forcing us to be part of an organization that we chose not to be part of, seems an odd move.
"....would be in jeopardy if the extension of the EID is not passed, Arnold said. So would the executive director's salary."
I like Chuck Arnold, I think he's done a good job, but this appears to me to be a money grab, to keep his own job alive. Sorry. That's what it looks like. It's a really bad time to be adding to my rent, by the way.
Looks to me as though they've lined up 60% of the downtown owners as members, and they have a pro real estate city council and they can ram this down the non-members throats. (With the nice little incentive that their own fees will go down as a reward.) Gee, I wonder how that will go.
They've tried things like this before. The infamous "BLUE STRIPE" that was going to run from fountain below Hospital Hill and running down to the river that would've require the sidewalks be pulled up. Or the idea of putting camera's on every street corner and hiring a private police force. These were bad ideas at the time, and even worse ideas in hindsight.
"Downtown Bend Business Association members, comprise about 60% of the estimated 200 downtown businesses, pay the association dues that benefit the entire downtown..."
Benefit the entire downtown? Says who? Says the 60%? What about the 40% who chose not to be members? We don't think so, obviously.
I'd love to add up the years of the non-members vs the members and see who has more seniority. Just the two businesses quoted in opposition in the paper, plus me, represent businesses with over 80 years experience in total.
But hey, what do we know?
I went to a meeting once, where they wanted to change the organizational slogan to "The Village by the River." It was an asinine slogan. I couldn't believe it, but there they were all nodding their heads.
Even further back, they wanted to turn Downtown in into a paved mall: Which would have been the death of downtown. And what I remember was, it was the outsiders, the oldtimers, the old reprobates who raised a clamor and got that voted down.
If I choose not to be part of their group think, I think that should be my right.
The original EID was not only a good idea, but it was necessary. Downtown was in sad shape. But it was about infrastructure -- things like sidewalks, streetlamps, trees, and important things.
It was NOT about flower baskets.
I think the EID has outlived it usefulness and is turning into a self-protecting organization.
It appears that Compass Commercial, who are my property managers, are solidly behind this. I suspect that I AM ALREADY PAYING MY LANDLORD THROUGH INCREASED AAA for their membership in the EID; so what it looks like to me, is that I'll be paying TWICE.
I will also say, all other things being equal, I think making non-voting, voluntarily non-members with HIGHER fees and current members with LOWER fees is outrageous adn the Achilles Heel of the whole proposal. I don't see how anyone could think that was fair.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Oh, the irony.
A friend of mine Downtown has begun negotiations with his landlord.
He started to tell the landlord that sales were down, that they needed rent to come down....
"I thought you would say that," the landlord answered. "So I cut out this article from last Sunday's Bulletin. There's another store owner Downtown that says everything is just fine. His name is.....Duncan McGeary."
"What?!" That's impossible!" my friend exclaimed. "I know Duncan! That's not the kind of thing he would say. Let me see that!"
Reads article. "This doesn't sound like Duncan...."
Then -- (I think) -- he explained that Duncan is a well known crank and pay no attention to what he says.....
At least, that's what I would've done.
Since I will soon be renegotiating my own lease, I'd like to repudiate everything that Dumbshit...wasshisname, Dudley? Duncan? said in that article! I ...I mean that Dork....was mistaken! Bend is DOOOMED! Game over! Does the name Custer mean anything to you? We need lower rent, like half as much, maybe less. In fact, we ought to get a couple of free months!!!
Sigh.
It never pays to be positive.....
Anyway, I do think the next six months are going to be very tough, on into the later half of this year, and probably most of 2010 as well.
Really......a rent moderation wouldn't be out of line. Not a bit.
What I was trying to say was, that though the spaces Downtown were probably rentable, it doesn't mean whoever rents them will prosper at the higher rates.
From what I've heard, there have been at least six different people looking at the Merenda space already, including a national chain (which I'd never heard of.) Another local restaurant has apparently been looking at the Volo.
And why not?
The money has already been spent fixing those places up. I've always maintained that businesses Downtown leave beautiful corpses. That we fail upward.
Another way to put it, these are some beautiful shells for some enterprising hermit crabs to move into. If all they have to do is pay rent, hey, it may be a real opportunity.
Here's hoping, though, that the Downtown landlords will see the benefit of longterm, stable businesses who have proven that they can pay the rent, even if means a little less in the short run. That we try to keep a few older business around for seasoning.
It shouldn't be all high end, for instance, but obviously that means that rents can't be astronomical. If the space is somewhat more humble, so be it. I'll be sorry to see that Bond market go out, for instance, because that's just the everyday kind of business we could use a little more of.
So, when you read last week's article, just remember that there is more to the story.
He started to tell the landlord that sales were down, that they needed rent to come down....
"I thought you would say that," the landlord answered. "So I cut out this article from last Sunday's Bulletin. There's another store owner Downtown that says everything is just fine. His name is.....Duncan McGeary."
"What?!" That's impossible!" my friend exclaimed. "I know Duncan! That's not the kind of thing he would say. Let me see that!"
Reads article. "This doesn't sound like Duncan...."
Then -- (I think) -- he explained that Duncan is a well known crank and pay no attention to what he says.....
At least, that's what I would've done.
Since I will soon be renegotiating my own lease, I'd like to repudiate everything that Dumbshit...wasshisname, Dudley? Duncan? said in that article! I ...I mean that Dork....was mistaken! Bend is DOOOMED! Game over! Does the name Custer mean anything to you? We need lower rent, like half as much, maybe less. In fact, we ought to get a couple of free months!!!
Sigh.
It never pays to be positive.....
Anyway, I do think the next six months are going to be very tough, on into the later half of this year, and probably most of 2010 as well.
Really......a rent moderation wouldn't be out of line. Not a bit.
What I was trying to say was, that though the spaces Downtown were probably rentable, it doesn't mean whoever rents them will prosper at the higher rates.
From what I've heard, there have been at least six different people looking at the Merenda space already, including a national chain (which I'd never heard of.) Another local restaurant has apparently been looking at the Volo.
And why not?
The money has already been spent fixing those places up. I've always maintained that businesses Downtown leave beautiful corpses. That we fail upward.
Another way to put it, these are some beautiful shells for some enterprising hermit crabs to move into. If all they have to do is pay rent, hey, it may be a real opportunity.
Here's hoping, though, that the Downtown landlords will see the benefit of longterm, stable businesses who have proven that they can pay the rent, even if means a little less in the short run. That we try to keep a few older business around for seasoning.
It shouldn't be all high end, for instance, but obviously that means that rents can't be astronomical. If the space is somewhat more humble, so be it. I'll be sorry to see that Bond market go out, for instance, because that's just the everyday kind of business we could use a little more of.
So, when you read last week's article, just remember that there is more to the story.
Laying out the odds.
What I'd really like to do is an honest assessment of what I think is going to happen to my business, and to Downtown Bend, without either the hyperbole or the wishful thinking.
Best is to put 'odds' on each likely occurrence, overall.
Scenario One.
A quick, deep recession, which we've already suffered most of, and comics do very well with the Watchmen movie coming and new books sell well, and games doing well with the addition of another game store in town. Sales actually start to go up from the bottom before summer, and start approaching last years levels by end of summer.
Unlikely, but you never know. 10% odds.
Scenario Two.
Things bump along pretty much as they have been, with slowly declining sales, ending up about 40% from the peak average to the low average. Occasional empty storefronts, which are rented fairly quickly. Enough businesses to keep Bend -- relatively -- vibrant. Enough business to keep the store well stocked. But challenging through the end of the year and well into the next. Leaves us vulnerable to sudden shocks.
Mostly likely, I'd say 70% odds.
Scenario Three.
Things really crash, dropping 50% or even 60%. Storefronts empty and aren't refilled. People leave town. I start playing cribbage on the sidewalk with my neighbors, waiting for customers. Ironically, after the worst has hit, probably no more vulnerable than the above scenario, because concessions would be forthcoming, one would think. And I would just cut to the bone.
Hopefully, unlikely. I'd give it 20% odds.
RESTOCKED!
Anyway, despite the last three really slow days, I went ahead and started on my February reorders.
I'll be getting pretty much a complete restock of the evergreen graphic novels.
I reordered most of the solid selling board games and card games.
Next week, I'll be ordering books and cards.
Then, it should be pretty much maintenance levels after that.
The amount I spent was about half of what I sold at Christmas -- that is, half of what I sold at Christmas were evergreen products, and half were one-ups, which don't need to be replaced.
I'd have to say there was just enough business the first two weeks of this months, just barely enough to restock the store completely. Maintenance levels should be easier from here on out. At the same time, they will have to be maintained with REAL sales, and not prospective sales.
Otherwise I'll just wait until the Summer boost. My three best months are in the second half of the year, July, August and December, proceeded by my fourth best month, June. So -- this period of January thru May is always a tough time for Bend retail, and this year it probably will be just tougher.
Trick is to get through it without going backward, without resorting to debt, without having my store empty of product.
I think I can pull that off.
Best is to put 'odds' on each likely occurrence, overall.
Scenario One.
A quick, deep recession, which we've already suffered most of, and comics do very well with the Watchmen movie coming and new books sell well, and games doing well with the addition of another game store in town. Sales actually start to go up from the bottom before summer, and start approaching last years levels by end of summer.
Unlikely, but you never know. 10% odds.
Scenario Two.
Things bump along pretty much as they have been, with slowly declining sales, ending up about 40% from the peak average to the low average. Occasional empty storefronts, which are rented fairly quickly. Enough businesses to keep Bend -- relatively -- vibrant. Enough business to keep the store well stocked. But challenging through the end of the year and well into the next. Leaves us vulnerable to sudden shocks.
Mostly likely, I'd say 70% odds.
Scenario Three.
Things really crash, dropping 50% or even 60%. Storefronts empty and aren't refilled. People leave town. I start playing cribbage on the sidewalk with my neighbors, waiting for customers. Ironically, after the worst has hit, probably no more vulnerable than the above scenario, because concessions would be forthcoming, one would think. And I would just cut to the bone.
Hopefully, unlikely. I'd give it 20% odds.
RESTOCKED!
Anyway, despite the last three really slow days, I went ahead and started on my February reorders.
I'll be getting pretty much a complete restock of the evergreen graphic novels.
I reordered most of the solid selling board games and card games.
Next week, I'll be ordering books and cards.
Then, it should be pretty much maintenance levels after that.
The amount I spent was about half of what I sold at Christmas -- that is, half of what I sold at Christmas were evergreen products, and half were one-ups, which don't need to be replaced.
I'd have to say there was just enough business the first two weeks of this months, just barely enough to restock the store completely. Maintenance levels should be easier from here on out. At the same time, they will have to be maintained with REAL sales, and not prospective sales.
Otherwise I'll just wait until the Summer boost. My three best months are in the second half of the year, July, August and December, proceeded by my fourth best month, June. So -- this period of January thru May is always a tough time for Bend retail, and this year it probably will be just tougher.
Trick is to get through it without going backward, without resorting to debt, without having my store empty of product.
I think I can pull that off.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
A little, of a lot.
I told this story to my wife, and we just started laughing.
When the guy said, "I'm going to shove these cards up your ass," I answered, "I was thinking of doing that myself."
Everyone in the store sort of hesitated. This really puzzled look came over the guys face, and I thought of trying to explain myself...
And then, the argument went on.
Capped by the customer's remark, "Well, that went well, considering..."
About 15 years ago, the card customers became so difficult to deal with, I stopped trading for singles. A couple years later, I stopped buying. Now....I'm going to stop selling the singles.
The comment I had back then was, "When a 'service' becomes a problem, it's no longer a service."
I haven't made money off singles for years. They are strictly an add on bonus service.
No more.
And yes, it is a way to avoid burn out. If I carried one product and devoted 100% of my attention to that product, I would be equal or in advance of any possible customer.
But by having 8 product lines, and devoting say, 20% to each product line, I'm still working 160% as hard, but probably don't know as much as the more hardcore customers in any single product line.
Most customers accept that. A few seem insulted that I'm making my living doing something they know so much more about.
But this broad, diverse product offering, but with a light touch on each product, is the method I've found to survive in Bend. Like a "General Pop-culture Store" I need to carry a little of a lot.
If Bend was bigger, or demographically different, I might be able to focus on one or two product lines. But it more than a little revealing that there aren't any full card, comic, game or pop culture toy stores in town. But one store who does all four.
When the guy said, "I'm going to shove these cards up your ass," I answered, "I was thinking of doing that myself."
Everyone in the store sort of hesitated. This really puzzled look came over the guys face, and I thought of trying to explain myself...
And then, the argument went on.
Capped by the customer's remark, "Well, that went well, considering..."
About 15 years ago, the card customers became so difficult to deal with, I stopped trading for singles. A couple years later, I stopped buying. Now....I'm going to stop selling the singles.
The comment I had back then was, "When a 'service' becomes a problem, it's no longer a service."
I haven't made money off singles for years. They are strictly an add on bonus service.
No more.
And yes, it is a way to avoid burn out. If I carried one product and devoted 100% of my attention to that product, I would be equal or in advance of any possible customer.
But by having 8 product lines, and devoting say, 20% to each product line, I'm still working 160% as hard, but probably don't know as much as the more hardcore customers in any single product line.
Most customers accept that. A few seem insulted that I'm making my living doing something they know so much more about.
But this broad, diverse product offering, but with a light touch on each product, is the method I've found to survive in Bend. Like a "General Pop-culture Store" I need to carry a little of a lot.
If Bend was bigger, or demographically different, I might be able to focus on one or two product lines. But it more than a little revealing that there aren't any full card, comic, game or pop culture toy stores in town. But one store who does all four.
Make it too difficult, and I'll stop.
Got to work yesterday, and it felt different. Just really slow.
I wonder if the next two days will be more indicative of the month than the first 10 days or so....
I waited most of the day for customers, got a guy who comes in from Eugene periodically, and because he was an out of towner in the know kind of guy, I kind of dumped on him. (I mean, I complained about how hard it was to sell comics....)
After he left, I was surprised by the bad taste that left in my mouth. Wow. I didn't know I was that down on the business.
Then, I got a father and son in the door. He reeked of alcohol and was a big, loud pain in the ass. Expounding about the 'right' way to collect cards, (the son was actually pretty right on his observations, the father completely wrong.)
I finally stepped in and explained that I don't "really do" singles anymore, that all the cards in the boxes and albums were a flat .50, that I don't have any inside knowledge on trends.
And hour in, the father is still asking if I have "Joe Namath Rookies" in any of the boxes, and how the Beverly Hills Card shop he goes to is so much better, and on and on.
It was the on and on thing that finally got to me. The son had pulled about 100 cards out of my alphabetical albums before I thought to ask if they were going to buy them.
They both froze. I went over, quietly closed the albums, and said patiently, "Why don't you pick a few cards out of this stack you want, before we go any further...."
Anyway, a family came in an started shopping for books, but every time I tried to say anything, this guy kept loudly interrupting.
Finally, (after about and hour and a half of this of trying to reason with a brick wall), I said, "Come on guys, you need to finish this up. I've got work to do. Buy something."
He said something rude, and I said, "O.K. then, I'm going to ask you to leave."
He got all blustery, and told me he was going to shove the cards up my ass and it was too bad I wasn't doing well and was burned out, but I didn't have to be such an asshole.
Just leave, I said tiredly.
He got in my face ready to fight, but I didn't feel fear or anger, just tired and he saw it in my eyes.
I said, "You might want to think about not drinking during the daytime."
He said a few more rude things.
Finally he left.
The father of the family in the store, who had been watching all this in stunned silence turned to me and said, "Well, that went well, considering."
This is the second incident with sports card collectors, concerning singles. I think I'm ready to remove them completely. Pat was always on me to remove the Magic singles, as well. They both seem to attract the wrong kind of business.
If I'm going to run the store by myself, I need to simplify. The 'burn out' accusation isn't far off, at least where it concerns cards. Simply selling packs and boxes ought to remove some of the tension between 'collectors' and me and will reinforce -- confirm and nail down -- that I don't buy, trade or SELL singles.
I wonder if the next two days will be more indicative of the month than the first 10 days or so....
I waited most of the day for customers, got a guy who comes in from Eugene periodically, and because he was an out of towner in the know kind of guy, I kind of dumped on him. (I mean, I complained about how hard it was to sell comics....)
After he left, I was surprised by the bad taste that left in my mouth. Wow. I didn't know I was that down on the business.
Then, I got a father and son in the door. He reeked of alcohol and was a big, loud pain in the ass. Expounding about the 'right' way to collect cards, (the son was actually pretty right on his observations, the father completely wrong.)
I finally stepped in and explained that I don't "really do" singles anymore, that all the cards in the boxes and albums were a flat .50, that I don't have any inside knowledge on trends.
And hour in, the father is still asking if I have "Joe Namath Rookies" in any of the boxes, and how the Beverly Hills Card shop he goes to is so much better, and on and on.
It was the on and on thing that finally got to me. The son had pulled about 100 cards out of my alphabetical albums before I thought to ask if they were going to buy them.
They both froze. I went over, quietly closed the albums, and said patiently, "Why don't you pick a few cards out of this stack you want, before we go any further...."
Anyway, a family came in an started shopping for books, but every time I tried to say anything, this guy kept loudly interrupting.
Finally, (after about and hour and a half of this of trying to reason with a brick wall), I said, "Come on guys, you need to finish this up. I've got work to do. Buy something."
He said something rude, and I said, "O.K. then, I'm going to ask you to leave."
He got all blustery, and told me he was going to shove the cards up my ass and it was too bad I wasn't doing well and was burned out, but I didn't have to be such an asshole.
Just leave, I said tiredly.
He got in my face ready to fight, but I didn't feel fear or anger, just tired and he saw it in my eyes.
I said, "You might want to think about not drinking during the daytime."
He said a few more rude things.
Finally he left.
The father of the family in the store, who had been watching all this in stunned silence turned to me and said, "Well, that went well, considering."
This is the second incident with sports card collectors, concerning singles. I think I'm ready to remove them completely. Pat was always on me to remove the Magic singles, as well. They both seem to attract the wrong kind of business.
If I'm going to run the store by myself, I need to simplify. The 'burn out' accusation isn't far off, at least where it concerns cards. Simply selling packs and boxes ought to remove some of the tension between 'collectors' and me and will reinforce -- confirm and nail down -- that I don't buy, trade or SELL singles.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Velvet.
I hadn't appreciated the fact until today. Because I've made no reorders over the last month, I've also been relieved of making any decisions.
Now the store is back in play, and decisions need to be made.
Projections have to be arrived at, and allocations of resources.
Do I hold back cash, or reinvest in product? Do I shore up best-sellers at full price, or continue to buy merely good product at discounted prices? Is it better to spend most of the money up front, and get the full month's benefit in sales, or hold back and give myself breathing room?
As usual, I'm splitting the difference. Basically, half the money I'm saving by working the store myself is going into savings, and half into product. Holding back half of the projected surplus, and only spending half of the money I am going to spend in the first two weeks.
Holding back cash would seem like an obvious answer, but any real downturn can wipe out cash pretty fast, whereas a solidly performing store with good inventory could stave off a downturn longer.
Simple, but complicated.
I've been reading a Pulitzer Prize winning history book, An Army of Dawn, (The war in North Africa, 1942-1943), by Rick Atkinson.
It's a bit of cliche to compare business to war, but the parallels are unavoidable. Commanders were constantly being cautious when they should be bold, bold when they should be cautious. Misreading signals. Not firming up their supply lines. They based their decisions on inadequate information.
But the biggest lesson is that war is chaos, and no one really knows what's going on.
There is an Admiral Hewitt early in the book, who harbors the notion of "velvet" which is that little bit of wiggle room that every plan ought to have. I'd never heard it before.
From now on, it'll be part of my business vocabulary.
I've struggled for years to turn the store around from ordering stuff and paying for it with sales, to having cash to buy stuff, and then selling it. To do that while not hurting the momentum of the store has been a long process.
I don't want to give up that Velvet, when I need it the most.
Now the store is back in play, and decisions need to be made.
Projections have to be arrived at, and allocations of resources.
Do I hold back cash, or reinvest in product? Do I shore up best-sellers at full price, or continue to buy merely good product at discounted prices? Is it better to spend most of the money up front, and get the full month's benefit in sales, or hold back and give myself breathing room?
As usual, I'm splitting the difference. Basically, half the money I'm saving by working the store myself is going into savings, and half into product. Holding back half of the projected surplus, and only spending half of the money I am going to spend in the first two weeks.
Holding back cash would seem like an obvious answer, but any real downturn can wipe out cash pretty fast, whereas a solidly performing store with good inventory could stave off a downturn longer.
Simple, but complicated.
I've been reading a Pulitzer Prize winning history book, An Army of Dawn, (The war in North Africa, 1942-1943), by Rick Atkinson.
It's a bit of cliche to compare business to war, but the parallels are unavoidable. Commanders were constantly being cautious when they should be bold, bold when they should be cautious. Misreading signals. Not firming up their supply lines. They based their decisions on inadequate information.
But the biggest lesson is that war is chaos, and no one really knows what's going on.
There is an Admiral Hewitt early in the book, who harbors the notion of "velvet" which is that little bit of wiggle room that every plan ought to have. I'd never heard it before.
From now on, it'll be part of my business vocabulary.
I've struggled for years to turn the store around from ordering stuff and paying for it with sales, to having cash to buy stuff, and then selling it. To do that while not hurting the momentum of the store has been a long process.
I don't want to give up that Velvet, when I need it the most.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
BUBBLE THOUGHTS
LITTLE NUGGETS OF WISDOM I CAN'T STAND TO NOT PUBLISH ON MY OWN BLOG.
Because I can't stand to have my little gems of wisdom (or as I tell Bilbo about plastering his words all over the place, 'turds of wisdom') and because I know that not everyone here goes to BB2, I'm repeating a series of comments I made over there about the creation of Bubbles:
HE SAID THAT I SAID THAT HE SAID THAT I SAID....
It started with Bilbo saying that I had said that one couldn't stop a bubble from happening. (Earlier, he had accused me of not reading Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.) Because it involves good old anonymouse Bilbo, the language isn't for the faint-hearted.
I ANSWERED.
Of Course, you COULD stop a bubble. It's just that no one ever does. Too many people making money.
What I said is, you can't START a bubble. (Shit, Buster, they're trying ALL THE TIME! Every new business, every new product, thinks they are going to take over the world.)
What it comes down to, people think they can CONTROL a bubble, manipulate a bubble. The other guy will always be the last fool, not you.
And bubbles ALWAYS end badly, lower than where they started, with everyone at death's door.
Only a lucky few will escape before it all collapses, and a few others will get out intact.
And yes, I've equated fads with bubbles, that's my premise, if you don't buy it, I understand.
I've read POPULAR DELUSIONS. A more boring and dry book would be hard to find....
And.
You and I are never going to agree on this, Bilbo. We have different world views. You see Evil Genius, and I see Chaos.
Ordinarily I'm a great believer in cause and effect, but when it comes to bubbles, I'm an agnostic.
I think they're a mystery.
I could be wrong about this, but even if it's true that bubble are created, who decides what becomes big and what doesn't?
So it becomes a moot point.
I'll give you this much. It is possible to recognize a bubble early, to promote it, to be part of the TIPPING POINT, and making it really happen.
The biggest benefiters to the bubbles, are people who were accidentally (on purpose? Luck goes to the prepared?) positioned.
In Bend, you have the Hollerns, the Coats, the Wards, the Miller, sitting on what had been, up until 15 years ago, fairly worthless property.
The other people who can profit are the few survivors of the last bubble who have no consciouses and are willing to screw people in the new bubble.
And you have a few survivors like me who are just trying to survive with their businesses and integrity intact.
But as Tim said, we'll be buried under fetid corpses....
To Which, Bilbo answered:
"Bullshit dunc, you haven't read the book, and if you did you skimmed, you were bored, ... you don't like reality.
Your a sci-fi guy, you like fake worlds truth bores the fuck out of you."
BORING BOOK.
I just told you, Bilbo, I did read the book.
Must be nice to ignore everyone else's reality.
I gagged my way through it.
The only interesting parts were the South Sea bubble, and the Tulip Madness.
It was like reading The Gangs of New York. You force your way through because there are some fascinating elements.
But you wish a modern writer would update the info in a more entertaining fashion.
BILBO'S WORDS:
Jeebus dunc, just let go, I could start a fucking bubble anytime I wish.
HEY, KIDS, LET'S START A BUBBLE!
Ummmm, go right ahead?
Spend a fortune of time and money trying to create a bubble.
If you succeed, you will be hailed a genius. If you fail, we'll never hear from you.
Like I said, it begs the point -- why do some things take off and not others? It can't be just brains, and money.
It's something more mysterious.
In your view, I'd have to say that the housing bubble inflaters were awfully nice to wait for the Nasdaq bubble inflaters to burst first.
One bubble at a time? Benefiting only one element?
Accident explains it more, fertile ground, maybe, but the EXPLOSION (not just 'hot' product, that can be created by advertising, but BUBBLE magnitude is way, way bigger.
Unaccountably hugely delusional.
If ten thousands monkeys set out to create a bubble, and one succeeds, is he lucky or a evil genius?
You could write a book about how this one evil genius monkey figured it all out, and find all the reasons in hindsight.
I guarantee you there are ten million monkeys out there right now, trying to create wildly successful, delusionally profitable trends or product.
General Mills right now is expending millions on product development and advertising, trying to create the hottest cereal ever.
Ford is trying to convince you their next model is the new Mustang.
And so on.
It's the "Sam Walton" is a genius school of thought.
If you start with 1000 stores 50 years ago, one will end up being the biggest. Then we can all go back and see why, and give it all kinds of importance.
But to me, it's like asking why Saturday is the busiest day of the week in retail. Oh, because people are off work, or whatever.
But what if the busiest day was Tuesday, then we'd find all the reasons.
And alternative explanation is:
ONE OF THE DAYS OF THE WEEK, BY DEFINITION, WAS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
It's simple statistics.
So, yeah, Walton did some things right, but if it hadn't been him, it WOULD'VE been someone else. And we'd be calling them, CHEAP SHIT FROM CHINA, either way.
And Target would be trying to position themselves as the classier Walmart, but it would still be, "WE ARE COOLER THAN WALMART, BUT WE HAVE CHEAP SHIT FROM CHINA, TO
Because I can't stand to have my little gems of wisdom (or as I tell Bilbo about plastering his words all over the place, 'turds of wisdom') and because I know that not everyone here goes to BB2, I'm repeating a series of comments I made over there about the creation of Bubbles:
HE SAID THAT I SAID THAT HE SAID THAT I SAID....
It started with Bilbo saying that I had said that one couldn't stop a bubble from happening. (Earlier, he had accused me of not reading Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.) Because it involves good old anonymouse Bilbo, the language isn't for the faint-hearted.
I ANSWERED.
Of Course, you COULD stop a bubble. It's just that no one ever does. Too many people making money.
What I said is, you can't START a bubble. (Shit, Buster, they're trying ALL THE TIME! Every new business, every new product, thinks they are going to take over the world.)
What it comes down to, people think they can CONTROL a bubble, manipulate a bubble. The other guy will always be the last fool, not you.
And bubbles ALWAYS end badly, lower than where they started, with everyone at death's door.
Only a lucky few will escape before it all collapses, and a few others will get out intact.
And yes, I've equated fads with bubbles, that's my premise, if you don't buy it, I understand.
I've read POPULAR DELUSIONS. A more boring and dry book would be hard to find....
And.
You and I are never going to agree on this, Bilbo. We have different world views. You see Evil Genius, and I see Chaos.
Ordinarily I'm a great believer in cause and effect, but when it comes to bubbles, I'm an agnostic.
I think they're a mystery.
I could be wrong about this, but even if it's true that bubble are created, who decides what becomes big and what doesn't?
So it becomes a moot point.
I'll give you this much. It is possible to recognize a bubble early, to promote it, to be part of the TIPPING POINT, and making it really happen.
The biggest benefiters to the bubbles, are people who were accidentally (on purpose? Luck goes to the prepared?) positioned.
In Bend, you have the Hollerns, the Coats, the Wards, the Miller, sitting on what had been, up until 15 years ago, fairly worthless property.
The other people who can profit are the few survivors of the last bubble who have no consciouses and are willing to screw people in the new bubble.
And you have a few survivors like me who are just trying to survive with their businesses and integrity intact.
But as Tim said, we'll be buried under fetid corpses....
To Which, Bilbo answered:
"Bullshit dunc, you haven't read the book, and if you did you skimmed, you were bored, ... you don't like reality.
Your a sci-fi guy, you like fake worlds truth bores the fuck out of you."
BORING BOOK.
I just told you, Bilbo, I did read the book.
Must be nice to ignore everyone else's reality.
I gagged my way through it.
The only interesting parts were the South Sea bubble, and the Tulip Madness.
It was like reading The Gangs of New York. You force your way through because there are some fascinating elements.
But you wish a modern writer would update the info in a more entertaining fashion.
BILBO'S WORDS:
Jeebus dunc, just let go, I could start a fucking bubble anytime I wish.
HEY, KIDS, LET'S START A BUBBLE!
Ummmm, go right ahead?
Spend a fortune of time and money trying to create a bubble.
If you succeed, you will be hailed a genius. If you fail, we'll never hear from you.
Like I said, it begs the point -- why do some things take off and not others? It can't be just brains, and money.
It's something more mysterious.
In your view, I'd have to say that the housing bubble inflaters were awfully nice to wait for the Nasdaq bubble inflaters to burst first.
One bubble at a time? Benefiting only one element?
Accident explains it more, fertile ground, maybe, but the EXPLOSION (not just 'hot' product, that can be created by advertising, but BUBBLE magnitude is way, way bigger.
Unaccountably hugely delusional.
If ten thousands monkeys set out to create a bubble, and one succeeds, is he lucky or a evil genius?
You could write a book about how this one evil genius monkey figured it all out, and find all the reasons in hindsight.
I guarantee you there are ten million monkeys out there right now, trying to create wildly successful, delusionally profitable trends or product.
General Mills right now is expending millions on product development and advertising, trying to create the hottest cereal ever.
Ford is trying to convince you their next model is the new Mustang.
And so on.
It's the "Sam Walton" is a genius school of thought.
If you start with 1000 stores 50 years ago, one will end up being the biggest. Then we can all go back and see why, and give it all kinds of importance.
But to me, it's like asking why Saturday is the busiest day of the week in retail. Oh, because people are off work, or whatever.
But what if the busiest day was Tuesday, then we'd find all the reasons.
And alternative explanation is:
ONE OF THE DAYS OF THE WEEK, BY DEFINITION, WAS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
It's simple statistics.
So, yeah, Walton did some things right, but if it hadn't been him, it WOULD'VE been someone else. And we'd be calling them, CHEAP SHIT FROM CHINA, either way.
And Target would be trying to position themselves as the classier Walmart, but it would still be, "WE ARE COOLER THAN WALMART, BUT WE HAVE CHEAP SHIT FROM CHINA, TO
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