Going into my third month of budgeting. Two weeks reordering, two weeks off. I could definitely see the results, in cash flow especially. Plus higher payments on my credit cards. By the end of June, I should be debt free. It feels very virtuous.
Which is why I feel a little let down. Spent the whole weekend doing nothing. After a week where my spending was out of control. Gained a bunch of weight on my trip. Spent two hours watching a Frontline I'd already seen; rolling my eyes at the Bush escapades. Cringing at pictures of American soldiers being blown up and assassinated on street corners. All in all, pretty stupid way to spend my time. Oh, and reading Blood Meridian by Cormac McCarthy, which is a cheerful little romp through the American West. (Bloodiest book ever.)
I've read two books by Cormac McCarthy, The Road -- about the end of the world. I mean, really, the END of the WORLD. And Blood Meridian. I've seen two movies, All the Pretty Horses and No Country for Old Men. I think I get it. No one is safe from random violence, the good guys don't always win, there is no rhyme or reason to fate, existential despair. Arghhh.
I admire the books, but I'm not sure I enjoyed them.
But underlying it all, is the realization that I went off budget big time last week. Almost out of control. I think I can recover from it, but I'm disappointed. I'll be holding my breath -- I can't tell you the number of times I've had a good sales streak, went and spent the money to keep it going, and then had sales fall off the table.
I had gotten a couple of thousand ahead, pure bonus, and had contemplated not doing the two weeks off this month, figuring that business would stay good, especially if I was supplying the store. And would it have hurt me to pocket the bonus? It was a bonus!!!!! Damn.
But now, I'm going to be forced to follow the original plan. A strict two weeks of no spending. Hopefully, I cam get back to where I started the month.
Linda and I are going to go see Narnia. Maybe that will cheer me up.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Sunday, June 8, 2008
More CRE musings.
An article in Newsweek, had the following paragraph.
"...banks that recklessly financed the housing boom—and then traded mortgage debt even more recklessly—are still cleaning up the mess. But it turns out (surprise!) the same sort of clouded judgment led banks to excesses in commercial lending..."
I keep going back to the local CRE (Commercial Real Estate) market because no one else seems to talk about it. As I've said, I often see hundreds of comments on housing on financial blogs, but only a dozen or so about commercial. Which makes sense, I guess, since so many more people are immediately affected by the housing market.
But everyone in Bend will be affected by a commercial bust, too. Maybe not in a direct way, but the CRE climate in Bend will affect everyone's finances in one way or another.
What's sort of frustrating to me is that I can't find any available statistics. My web-fu can't even wrangle up an article I remember reading years ago to the effect that Bend is the second most over-retailed town in America behind Las Vegas. (Seems to me, the article was in the WSJ or the NYT's; so possibly it's proprietary info?) Retail square footage is what I want to know. It's probably out there-- but, it's not my job, you know? I'm just curious.
Besides, even if it turned out the stats said we were average or something, I'd still be convinced we've overdone it -- because of factors like demographics, isolation, types of business. Really a couple of big box stores or two either way could completely obscure any number of small businesses.
In the end I have to fall back on experience and instinct.
A little history. (If you've heard it before, move along....I'm doing this from memory, so the details may be slightly off.)
Two malls, Mountain View Mall and the Bend River Mall, were built in the late 1970's and the early 1980's. At the time, the only real business districts Bend had were downtown and the 3rd St. strip, which probably extended about half a far as currently.
Small pockets on Division, Franklin, Greenwood, Newport, and Galveston; very small pockets.
The malls enticed many of the better stores from Downtown Bend, including J.C. Penny.
The Reagan recession walloped Bend pretty hard, and downtown Bend dropped to something like 40% vacancy rate, which is brutal; worse than it sounds, because the aura of emptiness is overwhelming.
Still, a few hardy souls moved into downtown, like weeds on the sides of blasted St. Helens. Bend was static for most of the 1980's; it was a big deal if anyone attempted a renovation, much less a new building.
The big box stores started arriving with Fred Meyer, in 1990; Shopko in 1992; and just about every year hereafter. Strangely, downtown Bend was less impacted by the big box stores (Wal-Mart, etc) than most downtowns, because it had already begun to claw it's way back from emptying out into the malls.
What's ironic to me, is neither mall really ever became robust; the Mt.View mall swung some deals and appeared to be hopping for a few short years, but there were always dead zones.
I had a store in the Mt. View Mall for much of the 90's, before seeing the handwriting on the wall in 1997 and selling the store.
So what happens? They tear down both malls, which were rundown, and start over with even BIGGER footprints. Meanwhile, 3rd St. keeps stretching out, North and South, Highway 20 becomes a legitimate shopping zone, Factory Outlet Malls, Walmarts and Targets and Barnes and Nobles and just about every big box you can think of, including some still to come, like Kohl's. Northwest Crossing tries to bring in Retail, the huge Old Mill, and Century Drive and on and on.
And I still remember how much a struggle it was to make a living in Bend through most of the 80's and into the 90's. Yes, I understand we have 4 times the population, but my visualization of the retail space built is much, much bigger than that. (Visualizing being unreliable, I know, but it's all I got.)
I think we've gone way over the top. The big boxes are here to stay; we hit 'metro' status, and a red pin showed up on every planning chart.
Meanwhile, the humble businesses of the first half of my career, have been replaced by very fancy, high end businesses. (Every time one of these 'high' concept stores came into Bend in the 1980's and early 90's, it seems to me they were slapped down.)
I used to look down on Wall Street from the entryway of Pegasus, and be half envious about the traffic I saw down there, and half relieved I didn't have to deal with it. Now, I'm getting the same kind of traffic -- and there is no denying it helps my business.
I think Downtown will be the last to feel it. (The big national chains may feel it, but we'll never know.) I suspect that outlying areas, such as N.W. Crossing and much of the new development along Century Drive and Newport and Highway 20 and anywhere else that isn't a 'natural' retail zone will feel it first.
Because, I suspect that many of these new stores and malls were built with CRE monies -- which is the link I was missing. I've always thought we were over-retailed, but now I suspect we're over-leveraged as well.
"...banks that recklessly financed the housing boom—and then traded mortgage debt even more recklessly—are still cleaning up the mess. But it turns out (surprise!) the same sort of clouded judgment led banks to excesses in commercial lending..."
I keep going back to the local CRE (Commercial Real Estate) market because no one else seems to talk about it. As I've said, I often see hundreds of comments on housing on financial blogs, but only a dozen or so about commercial. Which makes sense, I guess, since so many more people are immediately affected by the housing market.
But everyone in Bend will be affected by a commercial bust, too. Maybe not in a direct way, but the CRE climate in Bend will affect everyone's finances in one way or another.
What's sort of frustrating to me is that I can't find any available statistics. My web-fu can't even wrangle up an article I remember reading years ago to the effect that Bend is the second most over-retailed town in America behind Las Vegas. (Seems to me, the article was in the WSJ or the NYT's; so possibly it's proprietary info?) Retail square footage is what I want to know. It's probably out there-- but, it's not my job, you know? I'm just curious.
Besides, even if it turned out the stats said we were average or something, I'd still be convinced we've overdone it -- because of factors like demographics, isolation, types of business. Really a couple of big box stores or two either way could completely obscure any number of small businesses.
In the end I have to fall back on experience and instinct.
A little history. (If you've heard it before, move along....I'm doing this from memory, so the details may be slightly off.)
Two malls, Mountain View Mall and the Bend River Mall, were built in the late 1970's and the early 1980's. At the time, the only real business districts Bend had were downtown and the 3rd St. strip, which probably extended about half a far as currently.
Small pockets on Division, Franklin, Greenwood, Newport, and Galveston; very small pockets.
The malls enticed many of the better stores from Downtown Bend, including J.C. Penny.
The Reagan recession walloped Bend pretty hard, and downtown Bend dropped to something like 40% vacancy rate, which is brutal; worse than it sounds, because the aura of emptiness is overwhelming.
Still, a few hardy souls moved into downtown, like weeds on the sides of blasted St. Helens. Bend was static for most of the 1980's; it was a big deal if anyone attempted a renovation, much less a new building.
The big box stores started arriving with Fred Meyer, in 1990; Shopko in 1992; and just about every year hereafter. Strangely, downtown Bend was less impacted by the big box stores (Wal-Mart, etc) than most downtowns, because it had already begun to claw it's way back from emptying out into the malls.
What's ironic to me, is neither mall really ever became robust; the Mt.View mall swung some deals and appeared to be hopping for a few short years, but there were always dead zones.
I had a store in the Mt. View Mall for much of the 90's, before seeing the handwriting on the wall in 1997 and selling the store.
So what happens? They tear down both malls, which were rundown, and start over with even BIGGER footprints. Meanwhile, 3rd St. keeps stretching out, North and South, Highway 20 becomes a legitimate shopping zone, Factory Outlet Malls, Walmarts and Targets and Barnes and Nobles and just about every big box you can think of, including some still to come, like Kohl's. Northwest Crossing tries to bring in Retail, the huge Old Mill, and Century Drive and on and on.
And I still remember how much a struggle it was to make a living in Bend through most of the 80's and into the 90's. Yes, I understand we have 4 times the population, but my visualization of the retail space built is much, much bigger than that. (Visualizing being unreliable, I know, but it's all I got.)
I think we've gone way over the top. The big boxes are here to stay; we hit 'metro' status, and a red pin showed up on every planning chart.
Meanwhile, the humble businesses of the first half of my career, have been replaced by very fancy, high end businesses. (Every time one of these 'high' concept stores came into Bend in the 1980's and early 90's, it seems to me they were slapped down.)
I used to look down on Wall Street from the entryway of Pegasus, and be half envious about the traffic I saw down there, and half relieved I didn't have to deal with it. Now, I'm getting the same kind of traffic -- and there is no denying it helps my business.
I think Downtown will be the last to feel it. (The big national chains may feel it, but we'll never know.) I suspect that outlying areas, such as N.W. Crossing and much of the new development along Century Drive and Newport and Highway 20 and anywhere else that isn't a 'natural' retail zone will feel it first.
Because, I suspect that many of these new stores and malls were built with CRE monies -- which is the link I was missing. I've always thought we were over-retailed, but now I suspect we're over-leveraged as well.
Housing boom and Kubler-Ross.
Dr. Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, five stages of grief. Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance.
Simplistic, I know, but it seems to me in the local housing market that we've gone from outraged denials, to blaming the media, to many facets of "we're different", to lower prices are a 'good' thing, to lately....... an eerie quiet.
Have we entered the depressed phase?
Seems like it.
Simplistic, I know, but it seems to me in the local housing market that we've gone from outraged denials, to blaming the media, to many facets of "we're different", to lower prices are a 'good' thing, to lately....... an eerie quiet.
Have we entered the depressed phase?
Seems like it.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Worm Ouroboros
Sometimes, something is so glaringly obvious that you ignore it. It's right in your face, you know there is something wrong, but you're distracted by other wilder, crazier things.
I've felt that we were building too many houses in Bend for several years; actually, I think I was saying that even before the actual bubble. My concern was that Bend didn't have an underlying industry, or economic base, to justify all the housing. I didn't think minimum wage tourism jobs could pay for them, and there were only so many amenity rich transplants we were likely to convince to move here. I'm not even sure I was all that conscious that it was a national problem, I just could see what was obvious here in Bend.
I never felt that retired people were big spenders. The number of stores in Bend seems wildly excessive. It seemed that an awful lot of the newcomers were involved in real estate or building or support industries. More and more, it appeared to me that growth was the industry of Bend, and the industry of Bend was growth, a big Ouroboros Worm eating it's tail.
I wasn't really very aware of the credit/liquidity problem until it burst. I don't remember too many people talking about it, or reading very many stories about it.
In hindsight, that too was obvious. I'd heard plenty of troubling stories over the years about people borrowing money that I didn't think they could afford to pay back. But subprime and Alt loans and other guaranteed to make you 'house poor' schemes have been around for years.
Was it the cause or the effect of too many houses? Whatever, it was the precipitating factor in bursting the bubble. The curtain was drawn back, and the wizard behind the screen was naked as a jaybird.
I've begun to see the whole housing thing as a true pyramid scheme.
At the top, the fewest and the biggest, and probably the ones who scammed most of the money, were the big financial firms; the Bear, Stearns, the Lehman's. Right underneath of them, a bit more numerous, were the big banks. Both of these found loopholes in the relaxed regulations to bundle problematic schemes into 'investments.'
Next level under, more numerous, were the national builders, the national chains, and the big box developments. Again, I've felt too many commercial buildings were being built, especially locally. All done, in my opinion, in money borrowed from the future. A vast pool of liquidity that seemed 'free'; but will have to be paid.
Just below them, the regional banks, builders, and mortgage companies; the wannabes and the followers.
Under them, in much bigger numbers, a crazy number of local mortgage and banks and other financial services. And an even crazier number of local builders and construction firms.
Working for them, a vast pool of real estate agents, and construction workers, and mortgage agents, and clerks working at stores supplying the bubble, and so on.
And finally, in at the base, the home buyers themselves. Prime, alt-loans, and subprime.
In most pyramid schemes, the top walks off with all the money. Whats unusual this time is that the problem first appeared at the top. The level of greed and graft and stupidity was so massive, that once we saw the wizard's big, red, hairy butt, we wanted our money back. After the collapse of Bear, Stearns, the government rushed to reassure us that they are buying the other financial services some fine pants. Don't worry, we'll take care of it!
But, as usual in a pyramid scheme, the biggest number at the bottom are bearing most of the brunt.
Do you see the part of the pyramid that hasn't really been talked about much?
Except for a few high profile national builders, it seems to me that most of the developers and big builders, both regionally and locally, haven't really been punished yet. Even when a company seems to run into problems, someone else comes along and bails them out. Randy Sebastian is given another lease on life, albeit with his nuts firmly clamped.
It has been commented in passing, that building just seems to keep going on, despite the glut of housing and the lending problems.
Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal had an article that partly explained what's been going on:
In "Real-Estate Woes of Banks Mount," Michael Corkery, Jonathan Karp and Damian Paletta of the Wall Street Journal: (Italics are mine, to highlight the role of the developers.)
"Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums.
"Until now, most of the damage to banks from the housing crisis has come from homeowners defaulting on their mortgages. But amid a dismal spring sales season for new homes, loans to home and condo builders are looking increasingly shaky..."
"...banks that aren't diversified, or those with high exposures to residential construction and development, are of particular concern..."
"Home builders are falling behind on loan payments, and the value of the land and housing developments that serve as loan collateral is plummeting."
""We believe this period of procrastination is nearly over," says Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates.
"The prospect of a new wave of losses worries federal regulators, given the large proportion of loans to housing developers held by many banks and thrifts. The problems are worse at small banks that can't easily absorb losses, and at banks with big exposure in states hit hard by the housing crisis..."
'Real-estate lenders had been hoping for a decent spring sales season for new homes, which would have helped builders stay current on their loans. But the selling season has been a bust.'
"..."Finally the banks are capitulating and saying, 'Let's mark to market and flush this all out.' The market is going to get worse. We don't want to hold on to this stuff."
For me, this is the final piece of the puzzle. It both explains why frenzied building continues by developers, and the response of the banks. It finally let me see the whole thing as the pyramid scheme I detailed above. It also appears to me that problems are starting to ricochet through the different levels -- the government steps in to try to firm up one problem, but it breaks out on another level and so on. Which mean, it probably can't be controlled.
I'd thought most of the bad news would be put on the back burner during the spring and summer, and the accounting would take place in the fall. Now, I'm wondering if even locally, they'll be able to hold off taking the developers out of play.
If you don't mind, I'd like to repeat one of the above quoted paragraphs, in Capital Letters and Italicized.
"REAL-ESTATE LENDERS HAD BEEN HOPING FOR A DECENT SPRING SALES SEASON FOR NEW HOMES, WHICH WOULD HAVE HELPED BUILDERS STAY CURRENT ON THEIR LOANS. BUT THE SELLING SEASON HAS BEEN A BUST."
I've felt that we were building too many houses in Bend for several years; actually, I think I was saying that even before the actual bubble. My concern was that Bend didn't have an underlying industry, or economic base, to justify all the housing. I didn't think minimum wage tourism jobs could pay for them, and there were only so many amenity rich transplants we were likely to convince to move here. I'm not even sure I was all that conscious that it was a national problem, I just could see what was obvious here in Bend.
I never felt that retired people were big spenders. The number of stores in Bend seems wildly excessive. It seemed that an awful lot of the newcomers were involved in real estate or building or support industries. More and more, it appeared to me that growth was the industry of Bend, and the industry of Bend was growth, a big Ouroboros Worm eating it's tail.
I wasn't really very aware of the credit/liquidity problem until it burst. I don't remember too many people talking about it, or reading very many stories about it.
In hindsight, that too was obvious. I'd heard plenty of troubling stories over the years about people borrowing money that I didn't think they could afford to pay back. But subprime and Alt loans and other guaranteed to make you 'house poor' schemes have been around for years.
Was it the cause or the effect of too many houses? Whatever, it was the precipitating factor in bursting the bubble. The curtain was drawn back, and the wizard behind the screen was naked as a jaybird.
I've begun to see the whole housing thing as a true pyramid scheme.
At the top, the fewest and the biggest, and probably the ones who scammed most of the money, were the big financial firms; the Bear, Stearns, the Lehman's. Right underneath of them, a bit more numerous, were the big banks. Both of these found loopholes in the relaxed regulations to bundle problematic schemes into 'investments.'
Next level under, more numerous, were the national builders, the national chains, and the big box developments. Again, I've felt too many commercial buildings were being built, especially locally. All done, in my opinion, in money borrowed from the future. A vast pool of liquidity that seemed 'free'; but will have to be paid.
Just below them, the regional banks, builders, and mortgage companies; the wannabes and the followers.
Under them, in much bigger numbers, a crazy number of local mortgage and banks and other financial services. And an even crazier number of local builders and construction firms.
Working for them, a vast pool of real estate agents, and construction workers, and mortgage agents, and clerks working at stores supplying the bubble, and so on.
And finally, in at the base, the home buyers themselves. Prime, alt-loans, and subprime.
In most pyramid schemes, the top walks off with all the money. Whats unusual this time is that the problem first appeared at the top. The level of greed and graft and stupidity was so massive, that once we saw the wizard's big, red, hairy butt, we wanted our money back. After the collapse of Bear, Stearns, the government rushed to reassure us that they are buying the other financial services some fine pants. Don't worry, we'll take care of it!
But, as usual in a pyramid scheme, the biggest number at the bottom are bearing most of the brunt.
Do you see the part of the pyramid that hasn't really been talked about much?
Except for a few high profile national builders, it seems to me that most of the developers and big builders, both regionally and locally, haven't really been punished yet. Even when a company seems to run into problems, someone else comes along and bails them out. Randy Sebastian is given another lease on life, albeit with his nuts firmly clamped.
It has been commented in passing, that building just seems to keep going on, despite the glut of housing and the lending problems.
Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal had an article that partly explained what's been going on:
In "Real-Estate Woes of Banks Mount," Michael Corkery, Jonathan Karp and Damian Paletta of the Wall Street Journal: (Italics are mine, to highlight the role of the developers.)
"Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums.
"Until now, most of the damage to banks from the housing crisis has come from homeowners defaulting on their mortgages. But amid a dismal spring sales season for new homes, loans to home and condo builders are looking increasingly shaky..."
"...banks that aren't diversified, or those with high exposures to residential construction and development, are of particular concern..."
"Home builders are falling behind on loan payments, and the value of the land and housing developments that serve as loan collateral is plummeting."
""We believe this period of procrastination is nearly over," says Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates.
"The prospect of a new wave of losses worries federal regulators, given the large proportion of loans to housing developers held by many banks and thrifts. The problems are worse at small banks that can't easily absorb losses, and at banks with big exposure in states hit hard by the housing crisis..."
'Real-estate lenders had been hoping for a decent spring sales season for new homes, which would have helped builders stay current on their loans. But the selling season has been a bust.'
"..."Finally the banks are capitulating and saying, 'Let's mark to market and flush this all out.' The market is going to get worse. We don't want to hold on to this stuff."
For me, this is the final piece of the puzzle. It both explains why frenzied building continues by developers, and the response of the banks. It finally let me see the whole thing as the pyramid scheme I detailed above. It also appears to me that problems are starting to ricochet through the different levels -- the government steps in to try to firm up one problem, but it breaks out on another level and so on. Which mean, it probably can't be controlled.
I'd thought most of the bad news would be put on the back burner during the spring and summer, and the accounting would take place in the fall. Now, I'm wondering if even locally, they'll be able to hold off taking the developers out of play.
If you don't mind, I'd like to repeat one of the above quoted paragraphs, in Capital Letters and Italicized.
"REAL-ESTATE LENDERS HAD BEEN HOPING FOR A DECENT SPRING SALES SEASON FOR NEW HOMES, WHICH WOULD HAVE HELPED BUILDERS STAY CURRENT ON THEIR LOANS. BUT THE SELLING SEASON HAS BEEN A BUST."
Friday, June 6, 2008
An arrogant mood.
I thought when I started this blog that I might have a hard time being downbeat when downbeat was called for. That is, I wouldn't be able to admit when things weren't going well. But....it hasn't been a problem. Partly because things have gone pretty smoothly over the last year and a half. No real test.
I found that I could mention a 15% drop in sales without blinking, because I knew our profits were up, our customer count was up, and that much of the drop was accounted for by reasons I understood.
No, the real problem I have, is trying to restrain my arrogance...err, self confidence.
I was talking to Linda this morning about Obama and Hillery, and how I wouldn't want Hillery and Bill looking over my shoulder; but that it would show great self-confidence from Obama if he did pick her. "He has a bit of arrogance to him, I think."
Obama is Linda's fave right now, and she'd hear no negatives about him. "He is self-confident, not arrogant."
"Yeah, it's a little strange when the son of a Kenyan immigrant is accused of being an elitist, and the son of a high ranking military officer isn't. Kind of reminds me of a guy winning a Silver Star and Purple heart is considered a coward, and a guy who spent most of his time dodging the draft is a patriot."
Anyway, ignore the politics. I really don't want to get into an argument.
The point of this blog is when self-confidence trips over into over-confidence. Things are going very well at the store right now. It would take a massive melt-down from this spring's sales going into our busiest season to change that. (Knock Wood.)
So why is it that my store does so well in hard times?
I think it's because I put all my profits into it. Most people would've taken more money out of this store over the years. I'm so gun-shy about slowdowns, that I spend most of the busy years building up the store so that we can weather them. So that when they start, I'm not only strong, but still able to do the job. At a time when others are faltering.
So the trick this time is to not accrue any debt during the recession/housing, commercial bust that I'm certain is coming to Bend, so that when there is a recovery I'll be able to actually profit something this time. Instead of plowing all the profits back into inventory again.
I think I'm just really self-protective. I tend to plan for 5 years down the line; not thinking as much about what is happening now. Life is what happens while you're making plans. I've relaxed a bit, but I'm still really wary.
At the same time, I have to restrain my exuberance over how well things are going. I'm superstitious, and I have to be careful that I don't mistake outside factors for something I did.
Off to the store, and I'm excited by all the cool stuff we're getting.
I found that I could mention a 15% drop in sales without blinking, because I knew our profits were up, our customer count was up, and that much of the drop was accounted for by reasons I understood.
No, the real problem I have, is trying to restrain my arrogance...err, self confidence.
I was talking to Linda this morning about Obama and Hillery, and how I wouldn't want Hillery and Bill looking over my shoulder; but that it would show great self-confidence from Obama if he did pick her. "He has a bit of arrogance to him, I think."
Obama is Linda's fave right now, and she'd hear no negatives about him. "He is self-confident, not arrogant."
"Yeah, it's a little strange when the son of a Kenyan immigrant is accused of being an elitist, and the son of a high ranking military officer isn't. Kind of reminds me of a guy winning a Silver Star and Purple heart is considered a coward, and a guy who spent most of his time dodging the draft is a patriot."
Anyway, ignore the politics. I really don't want to get into an argument.
The point of this blog is when self-confidence trips over into over-confidence. Things are going very well at the store right now. It would take a massive melt-down from this spring's sales going into our busiest season to change that. (Knock Wood.)
So why is it that my store does so well in hard times?
I think it's because I put all my profits into it. Most people would've taken more money out of this store over the years. I'm so gun-shy about slowdowns, that I spend most of the busy years building up the store so that we can weather them. So that when they start, I'm not only strong, but still able to do the job. At a time when others are faltering.
So the trick this time is to not accrue any debt during the recession/housing, commercial bust that I'm certain is coming to Bend, so that when there is a recovery I'll be able to actually profit something this time. Instead of plowing all the profits back into inventory again.
I think I'm just really self-protective. I tend to plan for 5 years down the line; not thinking as much about what is happening now. Life is what happens while you're making plans. I've relaxed a bit, but I'm still really wary.
At the same time, I have to restrain my exuberance over how well things are going. I'm superstitious, and I have to be careful that I don't mistake outside factors for something I did.
Off to the store, and I'm excited by all the cool stuff we're getting.
4th Ed. D & D.
When I first started working at Pegasus in 1980, D & D was a pretty big deal. I remember we sold a lot of it; we had a room in back where people could play. Then it fell off my radar for some reason. I think it stopped selling quite so well during the Reagan recession, Mike shrank the store back and stopped supporting it as much.
By the time I bought the store in 1984, D & D had been neglected for a couple of years. I tried my damnest to bring it back; but Book and Game opened in the Mt. View Mall that Christmas and blew me out of the water.
Every time I had the inclination to go back into games, something would knock me back down again.
When Pokemon took off, Wizards of the Coast used some of those windfall profits to buy D & D (which was a pale ghost of it's former self) and began to prop it up and revive it. By then Gambit was open in downtown Bend, so I skipped 3rd Ed, the reintroduction of the classic D & D game; I also missed the 3.5 rejuvenation.
So I have no idea what to expect. I heard -- and in Bend, it may not have happened quite this way -- that both Editions sold extremely well.
I've probably over-ordered the 4th Ed., which is coming in today. If everyone who asked plus a few come in, I'll be fine. Otherwise, I may have a half year worth of product. But I didn't want to get caught short.
I'm also getting a restock of my boardgames today, and because of the reorganization, I actually have a place to display them.
Kind of exciting, and another kick-off (following FCBD and Iron Man) to summer. Things seem to be clicking...
Knock wood.
By the time I bought the store in 1984, D & D had been neglected for a couple of years. I tried my damnest to bring it back; but Book and Game opened in the Mt. View Mall that Christmas and blew me out of the water.
Every time I had the inclination to go back into games, something would knock me back down again.
When Pokemon took off, Wizards of the Coast used some of those windfall profits to buy D & D (which was a pale ghost of it's former self) and began to prop it up and revive it. By then Gambit was open in downtown Bend, so I skipped 3rd Ed, the reintroduction of the classic D & D game; I also missed the 3.5 rejuvenation.
So I have no idea what to expect. I heard -- and in Bend, it may not have happened quite this way -- that both Editions sold extremely well.
I've probably over-ordered the 4th Ed., which is coming in today. If everyone who asked plus a few come in, I'll be fine. Otherwise, I may have a half year worth of product. But I didn't want to get caught short.
I'm also getting a restock of my boardgames today, and because of the reorganization, I actually have a place to display them.
Kind of exciting, and another kick-off (following FCBD and Iron Man) to summer. Things seem to be clicking...
Knock wood.
CRE
Wow, the whole issue of the downtown parking lot on Greenwood and Wall came and went before I could even comment on it.
I actually probably would have given them the extension, myself. I don't think it's going to be that easy to sell again, but I could be wrong.
I understood why they wanted to wait, but the reasoning that the property value might have gone down, and therefore Bend should relent, struck a little hollow. It's not as if they would've come back to the city of Bend and said, "Oh, the property is worth more, now, so we're going to pay extra."
I'll be interested to see if it sells again.
Nationally, the Commercial Real Estate market is beginning to show real weakness, and by the end of the year I think we'll be hearing a lot more about it. Bend, of course, will follow half a year or so later. Already there has been an article about too much office space in Bend. Still, many of the boutique sized locations continue to rent or sell. I noticed the signs were off Boomtown, for instance. A couple others on Greenwood. And I suspect that almost no reasonably sized space in downtown will go unrented for long. Still plenty of people moving to Bend and opening business.
I may think it's a bit unwise, but it's in my best interest to see them keep coming and keeping up the illusion and spending their equity here.
When I go to sites like Calculated Risk, and they talk about CRE, there are usually a pitifully few comments, compared to housing and banks. Just not a sexy subject for most people.
My sales have been really really good over the last two weeks. If this is the way summer is going to be -- well, that would be fantastic. But I'm going to stick to my budgeting guns, anyway. I can always ramp up the spending later.
I actually probably would have given them the extension, myself. I don't think it's going to be that easy to sell again, but I could be wrong.
I understood why they wanted to wait, but the reasoning that the property value might have gone down, and therefore Bend should relent, struck a little hollow. It's not as if they would've come back to the city of Bend and said, "Oh, the property is worth more, now, so we're going to pay extra."
I'll be interested to see if it sells again.
Nationally, the Commercial Real Estate market is beginning to show real weakness, and by the end of the year I think we'll be hearing a lot more about it. Bend, of course, will follow half a year or so later. Already there has been an article about too much office space in Bend. Still, many of the boutique sized locations continue to rent or sell. I noticed the signs were off Boomtown, for instance. A couple others on Greenwood. And I suspect that almost no reasonably sized space in downtown will go unrented for long. Still plenty of people moving to Bend and opening business.
I may think it's a bit unwise, but it's in my best interest to see them keep coming and keeping up the illusion and spending their equity here.
When I go to sites like Calculated Risk, and they talk about CRE, there are usually a pitifully few comments, compared to housing and banks. Just not a sexy subject for most people.
My sales have been really really good over the last two weeks. If this is the way summer is going to be -- well, that would be fantastic. But I'm going to stick to my budgeting guns, anyway. I can always ramp up the spending later.
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