Wednesday, May 9, 2007

This will be a bit nuts and bolts business.

The last two days have been extremely slow, after a very busy weekend. The weather has something to do with it. As I mentioned last week, weather change causes shock to the customers. Last week, the first two days were awful, too, and I was hoping that the weather would stay good. Instead, it got kind of wet, chilly, and windy toward the middle of the week. So I'll express the hope again -- that the weather has turned to nice for a good long stretch.

I also think that we got a wave of regular customers in over the weekend (for Free Comic Book Day) that normally would have trickled in throughout the week. It's something I've noticed about most promotions -- there is almost always a take-back; more on the day of the promotion, less on the days immediately proceeding or following. One of the reasons I'm not a fan of most 'event' driven appeals to the customer.

Anyway, despite the last two days, our average is still pretty good. But just like the two slow days last week pulled down our average for the whole month, so have these two days. So instead of being ahead, we are just slightly behind.

When I did my reorders this week, they only came in at about 600.00 of my 1500.00 weekly budget. I swore that I wouldn't vary this amount of spending; that if I happened to have a slow week, I'd just use the leftover budget to buy the more sporadic material, such as weird candies, stand-ups, and such. But if I wait until next week, I can put it on next month's credit card bill. So I'm just going to keep the 900.00 difference as compensation for the last two rotten days.

I'm nothing if not inconsistent.

I have my wife's store as a contrast. She doesn't have 'big' days because of shipping; the streets outside her store are never closed for 'festivals'' ; she doesn't have big promotion event driven sales. She just has good steady sales on a day to day basis. Much less highs or lows, much more predictable. If she does her job, sales stay pretty steady. I kind of long for that consistency.

Tuesday, May 8, 2007

The SanFran independent bookstores did a study that found that money spent in their stores generated 54 million for the local economy; money spent at the chain bookstores and internet generated 8 million.

Hey, spend more money locally, so I can locally purchased a sprinkler system and lawn!

I found out that putting in a full lawn and sprinkler system could cost as much as 5 thou.
Even if it is half that much, that's too much for me. I'm slowly but surely preparing the back of the house for a lawn. I'm going to try to seed it about June 1, and then nurse it like a baby for the rest of summer. I don't have animals or kids, and its fully fenced, so I have a reasonable shot at doing it right. Buy some sprinklers that mist. Thing is, it will cost me what? less than a hundred for grass seed?

If it doesn't take, no harm done, I'll hire a full crew next summer the rip it up and put in sprinklers and sod.


I've been enjoying Heroes and Lost. Last week's Heroes, where they go into the future, was very much like many modern comics in tone and pace....I liked it. It helps when its an 'out of time' story where anyone can die and anything can happen. Jason, who commented on this blog about rediscovering comics, was mentioning how intimidating the continuity of mainstream comics can be. Which is why Astro City, which is distilled superhero tropes without the continuity, is a great, literary entry for anyone who wants to discover the appeal of comics.

Personally, I read very few comics that require continuity. (Superhero.) Joss Whedon writes a great X-Men comic that stands apart, you can read most mini-series without knowing everything there is to know about a particular universe. And there are plenty of good independent comics that don't require years of knowledge. Vertigo titles are great for getting a quick, fun read.

My newest theory on Lost is that the island is infested with nano bots, who have gained consciousness. They can fix who they want, kill who they want, reanimate corpses, even take on the shapes of things and creatures for awhile. There is a force field surrounding the island which the nano bots have either taken over or are trying to find a way around.

Sorry about the magnum opus yesterday. At least I got it out of my system.

Monday, May 7, 2007

FADS 101

Lessons I have learned from fads, starting with the most important.

1.) Never build infrastructure under a fad. You'll be tempted, at the peak of any fad, to expand or to open more outlets. If you have even a suspicion that it might be a bubble, don't do it.

I structure my fixed expenses in such a way that I can survive on the 'base' level of sales -- that irreducible number that any product sells to your regulars. (Or you go out of business.)

The 'base' number of a fad is ZERO.

2.) Don't try to compete with discounters. You can't win. In a game of 'Name that Tune', there will always be the idiot who thinks he can name that tune with one note or none. If you try to compete with idiots, that makes you an idiot, too. Once a fad reaches a suicidally competitive stage, it's time to move on, cut your loses. Lower your orders and raise your prices -- the exact opposite of everyone else.

3.) Diversify, diversify, diversify. Diversify or die. The specialist will beat you in the short run, but the generalist will last longer. Try not to let any product be more than 50% of your sales. Take the profits from a fad and invest in a new product line, or revamping an old product line.

4.) Don't wait for competition to go out of business. (For a perceived market share.) It'll take much, much longer than you expect. By the time it happens, the benefits will be nil. You'll get, at best, 15% of the competitors business, which by that time is usually pretty bad. Besides, it's a bit vulturish for healthy karma.

5.) Don't wait for the next big thing (NBT). Once you've had a taste of cash infusion from a fad, it's easy to get addicted. But fads are completely unpredictable. They're the sort of thing that no one heard of yesterday, and everyone has to have today, and all will forget about tomorrow. Look to your base.

6.) Try not to order too much in advance, or to pay in advance. It's better to miss sales because you run out of product than to have to accept volumes of product you can't sell. Don't get stuck buying a case, when you only need a couple of boxes.

7.) Order through a middle man to shorten that window, and to control the quantities, and to pay upon arrival. You may get a shorter discount, but the flexibility is worth it. (Remember, you're not competing with discounters.)

8.) Don't try to ride the fad to the top of the curve. Don't get suckered into constantly doubling your bets. Take a bit out on the way up. Get out when you've gotten what you need out of the fad. Don't look back if the fad keeps going. You can always get back in, but you can't always get out.

9.) Turnover isn't important to a specialty store. This is the 'non-fad' product that you need when the fad ends. A specialty store relies on the long tail -- selling that one item to that one customer, instead of oodles and oodles of stuff to a bunch of customers. That means you need a full store. In my experience, everything sells eventually. As long as you paid through cash flow, the turnover rate is less important. (On the other hand, you don't want to get stuck with too much 'fad' product. If you think it's a fad, try not to get more than a few months supply. But everything else, your 'base', keep a full selection.)

10.) Fads always die quicker than you think they will, and will sometimes die for a specialty store before they die in the mass market. Once they are dead, they are dead, dead, dead....at least for a retailer. They may come back later, but never at fad levels.

11.) There is a 'golden age' for every fad, when you can do no wrong. All you have to do is put the product out, and it sells. Then there is the 'mature' phase where people get a bit more picky, they start buying elsewhere. Then there is the down phase where everyone complains, no one wants to buy at full price. Try to get out during the 'mature' phase.

12.) Selling fad product is never hard. GETTING ENOUGH OF IT IS HARD. That's the part the customers don't see. The hard part is getting sufficient supply. My advice is never do something you wouldn't ordinarily do in order get product. At the height of every fad, you'll get lots of people shoving and pushing and lying their way to the head of the line. Don't join them. Let it go. This fad too shall pass. Eventually, Supply Always Catches Up to Demand.

Don't get so caught up in the fever that you lose sight of your core values. Hopefully, by being honest and steady you will have a number of reliable suppliers who will see to your needs. If they don't, you'll know to start looking for a new distributor. If the customers can't see that what you are doing is honest and steady, then let them go, too.

13.) See a fad for what it is. If you are selling zero, and suddenly you have lines waiting to buy, sales grow exponentially, then it's a fad. Some fads reach the end of their 'fad' phase and become regular product, (though most self-destruct.) Don't get caught up in the idea that this is a 'new' permanent situation. Rule of thumb, anything that grows faster than 20% steady growth is probably a fad, because there usually is no middle ground. It's either 10 to 20% for base product, or 100% growth or more for fad product. (The exception would be when you are adding a new product line, or expanding an old product line, but it's usually pretty easy to see what increases are due to expansion.)

14.) Try not to mistake a fad's success for your own success. Any moron can do it. You're not a genius.

15.) You don't control the timing. You can have it all figured out, when to get out, how much to extract -- but it won't be up to you. Look for more stuff than you need to show up when you least need it. Factor that in.

16). For god's sake, don't listen to the customers about fads. They never think their love for a fad will end. Remember, you have the experience in fads, they don't. Look at what they DO, not what they SAY. Never listen to what the competitors are doing -- there will be a six month information lag. Usually you'll find that if you are slowing, so were they -- despite what your customers tell you.

17.) You're inside a bubble. You have to use your imagination and logic to try to see outside the bubble. Enthusiasm is no substitute for thinking critically.

18.) Don't try to be first in, and/or last out. You'll constantly have the mirage of the 'next big thing' NBT dangling in front of you. But really, a fad is unmistakeable, and you'll usually be able to get into in time. It's seductive to try to get heavy supply of the initial stock -- if you could guess right, you could make a fortune. But by the time it is clearly a fad, that time has passed.

Every manufacturer will try to convince you that they have the NBT. Sometimes, even if they are right, you are like the guy who tramps a trail through the snow almost to the top of the mountain, where you lie gasping, while everyone else romps up the beaten trail and passes you. Let the other guy do the heavy tromping.

At the end of every fad, there's guys who will pass you, laughing at your conservative habits, but you'll usually get the last laugh as they go flying over the cliff.

19.) Don't get caught up emotionally in the thrill of the fad. Some customers will resent you for treating it like any other product, some competitors will gain business because they are fans, but in the end, you need to take a step back. If not, you'll be angry and disappointed when it all comes to an end. At the peak, competitors may even get nasty. You have to ignore it.

20.) Keep a bit of the fad product around until you see where it ends up. You'll be tempted to dump it when it drops 90%, but you have to remember, even the 10% that's left over is more than you had before the fad started. It's easy to get spoiled by a level of sales.

21.) Whatever you do, don't neglect your core business. The fad customers, in their enthusiasm, will clamor for you attention. There will be days when the fad money will make the base product lines look sickly. But don't ignore Joe over there, who buys 10.00 worth of comics a week; you're going to want him around when the fad ends. Try to add a fad product without subtracting from the regular product.

22.) Watch out for special services that fad customers ask for; such as special nights, or reserved rooms, or tournaments, or whatever. These usually work great during the golden age, not so great during the mature phase, and are absolute disasters during the downturn (require time, space and money, without the customers feeling like they need to buy your product for it.) Don't promise anything you can't live with.

23.) Don't try to be all things to all people. You'll be tempted to carry every size, shape and color, all reference books, all accoutrement's -- after all, the chain store are only carrying the best-sellers. You can distinguish yourself by having everything. It is what everyone will tell you to do. DON'T believe it.

Do the opposite. If a service or product isn't making money, drop it. Carry the best sellers at as close to the mass market price as you can, but don't try to match or beat them. Once the mass market enters your fad, you won't win. No amount of service or selection will win out. No amount of appealing to the customers loyalty will work. Be hard headed about it.

This is counter to everything I've ever read about how to compete with Walmart, etc. By all means carry more than Walmart, but don't try to do everything. By your very nature, a smaller store, you'll be able to provide more knowledge and service. But keep your ordering within bounds.

24). I mentioned this above, but it bears fleshing out. When a fad starts to die, don't be tempted to lower prices to bribe your customer into staying. You'd be better off lowering your orders and raising your prices -- at least you'll make money on the smaller level of sales instead of losing money on higher levels of sales.

25.) Every fad is similar in outline, (more or less), but different in the details. I say more or less, because every fad seems to have at least one quirk different from the last, which can negate all experience. It's easy to get caught up in playing out what you think you should have done with the last fad. Still, experience counts.

26.) It isn't a tragedy if you miss a fad completely. Fads almost always end up with as many negatives as positives, money lost and money gained. They often just cancel each other out, so that all that hard work and risk is for basically nothing. If you enter a fad, and don't do it correctly, it could end up costing you your business. All in all, I've enjoyed my none-fad years more, and profited more, than the heady fad years.



I could go on and on. 27 years of ups and downs. I've no doubt lost 90% of readers by this point anyway.

I've kept a business journal through most of that, so I could probably put 100 entries without duplicating too much. Hell, there's probably a book worth of material, if I fleshed it out with examples. Punch it up into once of those useless business aphorism books.
It's hard to keep up a constant state of alarm over the housing bubble. When I weigh all the news reports, I think its going to get dire --- maybe more than even the doomster's expect. I mean, this could really be devastating.

But...what can I do about it? I think I've designed my business so that I'll be able to respond to a downturn.

Thing is, we're have record sales in the spring. Good, solid, predictable business.

No...this is more a matter that I may be missing an opportunity to make money while I can. All I have to do is stop buying anything but the essentials. I've done it in the past because I had to, and I've done it for years.

But I've had steady growth for 3 years now. I have backup funds, and plenty of credit. The bills are pretty much under control.

So, despite what my mind and experience tell me, I'll let my optimism guide. (Frankly, even if I had never heard of the housing bubble and read nothing else about it, the fact that my house doubled in value in two years would be enough to make me sit up and take notice. NOTHING doubles in that short of a time, especially a high value item, without there being a consequence.)

So I'll just keep monitoring the local economy; and hope that this isn't that point in time that I'll look back on and realized I missed an opportunity.

I have the benefit of experience in a number of fads and in hindsight I can see where I went wrong and where I went right, and try to navigate my business through this situation. But ultimately, my every fad is both the same and different, and I won't really know which is which until it's past.

So, I'm orienting my business toward successful growth, with a eye on possible downturns.

Sunday, May 6, 2007

A rose is a rose is a rose.

What's in a name? My store already had the Pegasus Books name when I bought it, (with the nice advantage of a good logo.) Over the years, I've wished sometimes I could change it to be more descriptive. Then again, I've morphed the store so much and so often, that having a more generalized name has been useful. After 27 years, its a "Brand" name, for what it's worth.

Linda wanted to call her store Sagewind Books, because she's into indian flutes. It's a poetic name, but what does' it mean? We ended up with the BookMark, because it has 'books' in the title, which is no small advantage when it comes to signs and business cards and such. It's a bit more generic than I like, and I think the store has been enough of a success that we could've gone with the Sagewind.

When the Paperback Exchange was still in business, I was mystified as to why they didn't change the name to Book Exchange. They carried hardcover books, but NO ONE KNEW IT! An easy change, that would have helped draw in more customers.

Meanwhile, over on the comic retailer bulletin board, a store has posted pictures. Nice, clean modernistic design, that any customer would feel comfortable in. The kind of non-comic book guy store our industry needs. What does he call it? Spazdog Comics -- which pretty much negates the image thing.

What brought this up, is the Bulletin article about the closing of A&B Meats. Turns out, this store had all kinds of exotic foods, as well as Asian American owners. Maybe its just because I sell anime and manga, but I would definately have played up the Asian Market connection; there is a cachet, especially among younger consumers, and a niche. They could've done everything they were doing, AND perhaps drawn in a whole nother crowd.


Meanwhile, it looks like Free Comic Book Day was a relative success. Did better than an average Saturday, and had more people actually picking them up.


Statis Report. Have now stuck to budget for 11 weeks. STILL no blue sky. The 'slack in the rope' explanation is running thin (costs and material that had been ordered before I instituted the budget.) All I can think is that the little ticky tack reorders and the little expenses (small stationary, snacks, etc.) and my postage estimates are off. I'll stick to this budget through June, but if I don't start getting some savings by then, I'll have to cut my reorder budget.

The reorder budget has worked great -- its been enough to get everything I think the store needs. Maybe that's the problem. Maybe it's just not possible to make gain without pain.

Saturday, May 5, 2007

FREE COMIC BOOK DAY!

yeah.

I'm missing the promotion gene. Went to put out the comics this morning, and unloaded the last two or three years worth, have tons of them that never got took. Just put them all out. Raised my limit from 3 to 8.

Then I realized that I didn't keep any of the posters to put up. Really a half-hearted effort. I don't advertise, I don't have sales, I don't get in the gorilla suit. Just plug away with the best selection and best presentation I can come up with, in the best location, and let the business speak for itself.

I love the idea of FCBD. The companies really produce some great comics just for this event. The comics aren't free to me, but they are relatively inexpensive for a promotion. I'm just not sure it produces any results.

Maybe next year I'll make the grand effort.

Driving home, there's a big orange thing (I only caught the back - - a cat, a bear?) jumping up on down on the sidewalk with a sign and balloons. The new retail center across and west of the Forum.

That's the promotion gene I'm missing

Friday, May 4, 2007

The proof of the old adage; there's no bad publicity as long as they spell your name right. Baltazar gets an A- Review in the Bulletin.

If nothing else, the IRON MAN suit in the movie looks really, really cool.

Free Comic Book Day, tomorrow. Don't know why I don't try to make more of the day. It just doesn't seem to do much for business. I do like using the books to give away to newbies and browsers, but again, not sure it does much good.

Was having a conversation with someone in the know, and he mentioned another downtown shop that was doing very well, but....he complained....doesn't advertise! I laughed and said, "So that's two shops you know downtown who are both doing well and don't advertise....what does that tell you?"

Have to gird my loins for all the people who will be coming in looking for Spider-man "STUFF". Not comics, mind you. They'll just curl up their lip at that suggestion. STUFF. I'm a COMIC SHOP! Over the years I've tried lots of STUFF and it doesn't sell for us. I got a case of the Spider-man toys a month ago and I've sold one.
Guess which one? Three guesses....come on, you can do it. Yep, the Venom toy.
Meanwhile, I've sold my entire LOST toys case, except for 3 Jack toys. Unfortunately, those 3 Jack toys represent my entire profit.

Oh, the store I could have if I could buy all the Yoda, Boba Fett, Venom, and Legolas toys we wanted; instead of Gollum, Jar Jar Binks, and Spider-man battle damaged.

We have a fat cat. You can visit her at the BookMark, if she happens to be taking one of her period breaks to beg for treats. Otherwise, she's curled up in the back room.

Had some guys rush in last night just before closing for a game magazine, excited about the new Magic game release. Obviously, they were set to play the game that night. Found out they were getting their cards from a friend (who I'd done some trading with a couple of days ago against my better judgement) who obviously had bought his cards online and just as obviously was breaking the 'street date.' Sometimes I wonder what purpose we brick and mortor stores serve if the damn wholesalers will sell to just anyone.

Have sold a surprising number of board games. One or two a week, not enough to keep us in business, but they actually sell. Fancy European games like Carcassone, and Settlers of Cataan, and Ticket to Ride. Strictly word of mouth, as far as I can tell.

Not one of my competitors send customers my way; I send customers to all my competitors. Not fair. Won't change that practice, but it's frustrating.

World War Hulk: Hulk was sent to a different planet because Earth's heroes were worried he was out of control. He's weakened, and enslaved and made into a gladiator, but eventually becomes Emperor. Then the shuttle he was sent in explodes, killing his wife and kids. Now Hulk is coming back to earth, with his legions, and he's pissed. HULK SMASH PUNY EARTH!