Interesting market, this Pokemon thing.

I simply can't find anywhere on the world wide web who is selling Pokemon for any cheaper than we're selling it for. In other words, with all the choice in the world, customers can buy Pokemon in my store as cheaply as anywhere else.

Except they can't. There's a time lag involved. They see Pokemon in a store a month ago, and to them that was yesterday. There's retail lag. Some stores simply get their product, put it out for sale a SRP, and they sell out instantly. So they tell the customers, "Yeah, we sell for XXX. But we're out."

The customer translates that into, "We sell for XXX..." conveniently leaving "we're out."

And waves come into the chain stores and are sold at regular prices and are quickly snapped up, but I decided long ago I wouldn't deprive customers of their chance to get that stuff, nor did I want to lurk around chain stores. (A worse hell I can't imagine.)

What it means if we are selling as cheap or cheaper than anywhere online that. well, we're too cheap.

But the customers don't see that.

Nevertheless, I have two options. Sell out and maybe never see those customers again or bump up the price. Despite the increasing prices, our profit margin is getting thinner and thinner. At some point I will have to cry uncle and just let us sell out and hope that some more product becomes available.  

 

One week into Ingram only. Certainly is more timely and doing the budget this morning was a breeze. There's bonus to it in that I can wait for a statement to show up from the other publishers that includes all the orders I've so far made and then I can start with a fresh zero balance in my accounting.  

I ordered on Saturday thinking it would come in on Monday, which meant I could put it away today before work. It was a strange thing Ingram was doing for awhile, packing up stuff on Sunday to arrive on Monday. Except this time, it didn't. So that means that two big orders arrived today. 

So I came in to put the few boxes that came in Monday from other publishers, then waited around for the huge orders. I got about one box in and realized, "Nope." It ain't possible with people crowding the aisles 

That good, right? Not always. Sometimes all they do is clog the aisles. 

But there is nothing I do about it but stand there and wait until the move. Impossible.

So there's a huge amount of books to put away tomorrow and I need to try to get it done before opening.  

I'm throwing out all the game plans. We've had such an extraordinary month that my budget simply isn't sufficient to replace the sold product (especially books), much less improve it.  

Well, I can't have that. The store must be served. So the budget is now replacing the perennial sellers and the new hot stuff and to figure it will all pan out. 

I'm not spending anything on extraneous stuff. It all product we want in the store. 

So I'll let the chips fall where they lay and hope for the best. On one hand, we're doing far better than I expected, but on the other hand, it's hard to control a runaway beast. Heh. 

If I hadn't stocked Pokemon far beyond normal, I'd be completely wiped out by now. As it is, we'll probably manage to get to Friday without selling out of everything. I have at least two brands and probably three that I can continue to sell, which is still more than most stores, I suspect.

Some new Pokemon brands arrives on this Friday. I don't know if the new stuff will be enough, but I've run out of places to find Pokemon at affordable prices. I'm in the same boat as everyone else, despite all my preparations.

My old saying, "If something is hot, you can't have too much. If it's cold, anything you get is too much," has once again proven to be true. Another saying, "Supply always catches up to demand," may be true in the long run, but in the near future it's going to be an interesting situation of trying to hang onto just enough product to get to the next release.  

And there it is, Bubble Marker #11.

Someone broke into a shop in New Bedford, Mass. and stole 100K worth of Pokemon cards. (I did mention "hijacking," which is pretty much the same thing.)

By the way, that 100K value is bullshit. You have to have a hundred cards to sell one, and a hundred thousand cards to sell 1000, if that. I could live for years on the supposed value of the back issue comics I have. But the only thing that counts is the monthly average in sales, which is a tiny fraction.  

If I was that retailer I'd gladly take 100K than have to spend years and tons of overhead trying to sell the stock.  

It's all rather silly. Life is too short, guys. It's just Pokemon cards! 

I should elucidate what I think are the major markers of a bubble.

 

1.) Allocations. 

2.) New business's and expanding business's. Everyone jumping into the pool.

3.) Price increases to slow demand.

4.) Separation of product into winners and losers. Dumping the losers. 

5.) Stock at manufacturers and distributors going out the backdoor.  Literal hijacking of product. 

6.) Mainstream media coverage.

7.) Scalpers buying up all available product in mass market. (This should be #1, actually.) Fights in the aisle. 

8.)  Schools banning it because of disruptions. Fights in the schoolyard.

9.) Everyone insisting it isn't a bubble and it's different this time and that they aren't buying for the money but because they really, really like these: pogs, beanie babies, sports cards, Pokemon cards. Also shouting down people like me for being negative. 

10.) Original purveyors complaining but going all in anyway because they think they'll outsmart the market.  

 

I'll add more as I think of them... 

 

Had to go in on regular hours to put the last batch of books away. We basically got three weeks worth of books this week because of delayed shipments. It took me four hours of dodging customers and I couldn't help but feel that it interferes with business. It moves people out of the way no matter how I try to avoid them. Worse, I think it distracts from Sabrina paying full attention to the customer.

An hour after I left the store, sales had doubled. 

So I will, for the rest of the summer do two things.

1.) Order 90% of the product from Ingram to arrive within one or two days.

2.) Go in early during off hours to put books away.  

Still on pace for a record month. 

The dreaded "B" word.

Okay, I've been wondering. Should I start using the B word?

Our sales on game cards has more or less doubled, and they had increased dramatically for the previous years as well. We're selling out our allocations. The prices are increasing with every set and there are lots of people in the game.

So you can't keep exponentially growing for long. People's incomes aren't doubling and doubling. 

The allocations are happening because everyone is trying to get a piece of the pie.

We went all in on Final Fantasy Magic. I thought it would be a bit of gamble, but it paid off. However, I was hesitant to go that deep on the next two waves: Spider-man and Avatar. 

I needn't have worried. My allocations are much smaller, so I can only do what I can do.

So should I be using the B word?  I didn't have enough information. TCG cards are a sideline for us. As an example, it too me way too long to understand that actual players were focusing on Commander Decks. I was ordering very little of that. Nor did I understand how Collector boosters had supplanted Play boosters as the main focus of collecting.  

Well, this morning I listened to a podcast by a big game store guy. And it was like reliving the the sports card market of the late eighties/early nineties. I mean, almost word for word, what this guy was saying was the same kind of thing I was saying back then.

He revealed information I just didn't have. And the conclusion was pretty clear. 

We are in Bubble. 

Thank God I'm not that guy. Thank God TCG's are a sideline and not the main focus of our store. 

I'll need to be careful, and I can't avoid running some risk. The Bubble is only about 50% inflated in my estimation, which is a wild guess. But that means there is only about 20% left in the bubble to be doing things the same old way. 

I'll need to watch carefully and not wait too long.  

Told myself to start waking up earlier, thinking around 7:00 or 7:30 would be about right. My ratbag brain apparently went, "Oh. You want to wake up earlier?  5:30 it is!!!"

 

I think going in early to put away books is so enjoyable because I'm able to accomplish so much without the stress of dealing with people at the same time. (Dealing with people is a full time job, heh.) Displaying product in as clever a way as I can come up with has always been a creative and satisfying thing for me. There is something peaceful about an empty store, half-lit, full of cool stuff.   

 

Had a semi-slow day, which at almost any other time in the store's history would have been a good day. My heart sank. 

You'd think after 40 years I'd be immune to being whipsawed by daily totals, but if anything, that feeling is reinforced by the number of times it was a warning. 

Next day, sales went back up again. Still, it bears watching. (Though the only real danger is that I won't keep breaking record sales...) 

Good thing about ordering daily from Ingram is that I can keep firm control over the budget and adjust accordingly.